2021 Bold Predictions

Because what's spring training without some hot takes?

Here we are, just a bit over a week away from Opening Day, a day that should absolutely be a national holiday. With that in mind, I wanted to bring some heat with some hot takes about the 2021 Royals and how the season might go. These aren’t all positive, but I’ll start with a real positive one.

Brady Singer Will Have Cy Young Talk Around Him

There aren’t many people who will look at the stuff of Brady Singer and put him at the top of any of the Royals young pitchers in spite of his draft position. He has all the makings of a guy who fits in the middle of a rotation and keeps you in games in as many starts as possible. But, as much as I have a hard time truly understanding this, the guy has intangibles that I believe will help him to pitch above his stuff level. 

But I have reasons that aren’t just because he’s a bulldog who has all the makings of a pitcher who refuses to settle. He’s looked really good this spring. His slider is nasty. The fastball moves a lot. But his changeup has been reported to look good. We haven’t seen a ton of Singer, but what I have seen, the changeup did look pretty okay. And that’s really all it needs to be. The results this spring have been encouraging. Lots of strikeouts, and while he might always be a guy who has a bit of trouble with the home run ball, if he can keep the grounders and add a few strikeouts, that could be good.

Plus, he gets to face a lot of teams that haven’t seen him yet. He’ll likely make most of his April starts against new teams, and then the Royals will face 14 other teams this year that Singer didn’t face last season. I think at some point in the season, we’re going to look up and he’ll be among the league leaders in ERA with a ton of strikeouts and people will start talking. I don’t think it’ll end that way, but at some point, he’ll look so good that there’ll at least be a discussion.

Andrew Benintendi Will Struggle

I loved the move to acquire Benintendi from the Red Sox because acquiring talent is never a bad idea. And I think this move will work out in the end for the Royals, maybe even long-term with a deal beyond 2022. But at least at the start, it’ll look like a mistake. I don’t have anything too concrete to back this up, but new isn’t always easy. And Benintendi is sitting with two new things to worry about in 2021.

First, it’s a new team and a new set of people to impress. There is a mindset that going from Boston to Kansas City should be relaxing and actually should help a transition, but a new organization with new teammates and a new front office and management to impress is still new and that’s still stressful. Think about when you start a new job. There’s a lot going on and it takes some time to adjust in order to be successful. So that’s strike one. 

Second, he’s working on a new approach. It helps that his new approach is his old approach, but it’s hard to break habits. Benintendi tried to change his game while in Boston and while he realized that and dedicated himself to changing back to what worked, it could take some time and some reps to get there. And I think it might take a little while. What my crystal ball can’t see is how long. Does he only struggle in April or does it last half the season or more? I don’t know. But I think he will struggle.

Hunter Dozier is the Team’s Best Player

Okay, so you probably guessed this one was coming after I wrote about him a few weeks ago, but I’m just totally enamored with Dozier’s game this season. Armed with a new contract that gives him security and hopefully health he didn’t have last season, I just think he breaks out in a big way in 2021. He looked a little off early in the spring, but he’s really turned it on lately and some of the swings are absolutely beautiful. 

His athleticism is what people overlook a lot in Dozier, but the guy can really move. I’m worried about him defensively at third base, but I also think there’s a chance he’s a better player with an offseason to get ready for the position. Even with that worry, I think there’s a chance we see absolutely monster numbers from him.

The Royals Will Make a Big Trade (Or Two)

This is a weird team because if the Royals are contending around the deadline, they probably don’t have many holes to fill. In order to win, they’re going to need contributions from almost every spot on the field and where they’re unlikely to get it could be filled by prospects by mid-summer. The rotation will have to pitch well to compete and even if there are struggles, there are a handful of guys who will be ready to go to see if they can’t do better. The bullpen is a place where teams can always add, but even there, the Royals appear to have some serious depth with their cavalry of arms. 

But they also have those 40-man issues I talked about a bit ago. Someone’s gotta go. They already traded Khalil Lee to get Benintendi. But there’ll be more. And this organization really lacks a long-term answer in center field unless you believe Kyle Isbel can handle it for more than a couple years (I’m not sure I do). I guess maybe Bobby Witt, Jr. could be that guy, but I see him more on the infield somewhere than center. 

So that’s a possibility for a move, center field. But I just think they do something big that ends up clearing some of the logjam of pitching prospects and bringing in some pieces that can help them win in 2022 and 2023 and I think it happens at the deadline this season when teams are scrambling for pitching depth because of the short 2020. I wouldn’t be too surprised either if Jorge Soler is moved at the deadline if they don’t make any progress on a long-term deal for him. A lot of that will depend on where they are in the standings and also how a guy like Nick Pratto looks in the minors, but Soler could very easily be on the move.

The Royals Will Not Make the Playoffs

I know, I know. I said bold, not crazy. But I don’t think this team makes the playoffs. Hard to believe. I do think we’ll be a lot more optimistic about 2022 at the end of the day on October 3rd than we are today, and I think a lot of people are pretty optimistic about 2022 already. The American League Central has two very good to great teams and one team that churns out pitching like it’s nothing. I don’t think the Tigers will be slouches either this season. 

So it’ll be a tough go for them playing 57 games against the Twins, White Sox and Indians and then another 34-40 games against teams likely to contend. But I think they’ll be better at the end of the year than at the beginning and we’ll see debuts of the players a lot of people are counting on to be part of the next great Royals team. 

I think I’m about to give my official 2021 record prediction (that is subject to change with any injuries the last few days of spring training). And it’s going to be...76-86. The team won 58 games in 2018 and 59 in 2019. Then last year, they won 26, which roughly works out to 70 wins in a full season. This is a step up and I think, with the right moves, could get them to the postseason in 2022. But just not in 2021.