2022/2023 MLB Free Agent Predictions

It's a yearly tradition that I predict where free agents go and then they go elsewhere.

The end of the World Series brings on the off-season quickly and after the Astros won their second in franchise history, free agency started quickly. Teams still have a couple of days to negotiate with their free agents exclusively, but then the free-for-all begins. It likely won’t be quite as crazy as last season given that there isn’t a lockout deadline that players want to sign ahead of, but it feels like there will be some spending this year. For one, revenues are up. For another, it feels like so many teams in a perpetual rebuild might be emerging from that a little bit. So there is money to spend and players to spend it on.

The only issue is that this is a bit of a down free agent class, in my opinion. The shortstops are amazing. You’ll see four in my top eight. And there are a couple of legitimate aces available along with the most prolific home run hitter in American League history. But this free agent class is one that, once you get past those top guys, seems to have as muddled of a second tier as I can remember. Maybe that’s just recency bias, but it feels like most of the guys who you’d normally want to target hard because you can get him at a fraction of the cost of the big guns but get like 80 percent of the production are older this season or have injury concerns or whatever it might be.

Let’s get going. Here are my top-25 free agents. And just to make myself look even dumber, I’m including what salary I think they get. As always, please pretend this didn’t happen unless I get a bunch right and then never stop praising me.

Aaron Judge

Old Team: Yankees
New Team: Yankees
Contract: 8 years, $312 million

I honestly don’t see how the Yankees let Judge get away, especially after the season he had. They could use a little more diversity in their lineup, sure, but rich teams not spending to keep their own makes zero sense to me. You don’t get better by letting Judge walk. I don’t care how many solid players you can sign in his place. Thre’s risk in signing a guy this long who played 63 percent of the team games from 2018 through 2020, but he’s stayed healthy the last two years and he’s a monster.

Jacob deGrom

Old Team: Mets
New Team: Mets
Contract: 3 years, $130 million

I honestly don’t see how the Mets let deGrom get away, especially after…oh wait, he wasn’t quite as great in 2022, partially because he missed most of the year with injury. But he also struggled a bit with the home run ball. Still, he struck out a ton, didn’t walk anyone and was generally dominant looking for his first few stars. He struggled in his final four starts with a 6.00 ERA, though with 39 strikeouts to four walks. He’s going to be looking for a monster contract and I’d say the Mets are the only team who might give him what he wants. If things change and he can be had for a little less, it opens up quite a bit.

Trea Turner

Old Team: Dodgers
New Team: Dodgers
Contract: 9 years, $288 million

I honestly don’t see…this is played out, I’ll stop. The shortstop market is robust and the Dodgers have Gavin Lux who could slide over to play there, but even in a “down” season for Turner, he had 60+ extra base hits, 27 steals, still hit .298/.343/.466 and was good enough defensively. The Dodgers are a player development machine, but I think they sign one of the free agent shortstops, so why not the guy they know?

Carlos Correa

Old Team: Twins
New Team: Cubs
Contract: 10 years, $300 million

Correa wanted this last year (and a little more), but he had to settle for a three-year deal with opt-outs after each of the first. And he, of course, opted out after what was probably his third-best big league season. Here’s the deal with Correa. He’s going to miss a few games, but he’s going to be a very good hitter and very good defender when he plays. Plus, he has experience in the big moments and from what I’ve heard, his clubhouses love him. If you’re a team looking to move from rebuild toward contention, he makes an awful lot of sense. Will the Cubs actually spend that money? That’s a great question. I’m predicting yes and feel like it’s a risky prediction, but we’ll see.

Justin Verlander

Old Team: Astros
New Team: Astros
Contract: 2 years, $80 million

I’m not doing the bit, guys. But I think the Astros likely bring back Verlander for a couple more years to start at a very high AAV. They have Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy already, so why spend so big on a starter? Their top prospect is Hunter Brown. But you do it because you can and because any team that thinks they have enough starting pitching is going to be laughed at by the baseball gods at some point during the season. That said, the Astros are in a great spot. If they don’t want to go three or four years and some other team is willing to, they can pivot elsewhere, but I think if Verlander wants to stay and the Astros want him to stay, there’s a big two-year deal waiting for him.

Xander Bogaerts

Old Team: Red Sox
New Team: Giants
Contract: 7 years, $203 million

Traditionally, Bogaerts has not rated especially well as a defender, but that changed for him in 2022. I think teams know not to put that much stock into one year of defensive numbers, but it’ll certainly help him out. Yes the Giants have Brandon Crawford under contract, but it’s also for one year and he hit .231/.308/.344 in 2022. He remains an excellent defender at shortstop, so maybe the Giants convince Bogaerts to play third for a year, where they do have a spot open and then he can slider over. They can spend that year convincing him that third base is his long-term home and find a shortstop after that, but he makes a lot of sense, to me, in San Francisco.

Carlos Rodon

Old Team: Giants
New Team: Rangers
Contract: 5 years, $133 million

There were some durability questions on Rodon heading into last offseason, which is why he settled for a two-year deal with an opt-out with the Giants. But then he made 31 starts and was even more dominant than he was in 2021 and now he’s in line for a massive deal. The Rangers need pitching and have already spent a ton of money to help jumpstart their rebuild. That led them to 68 wins. You don’t hire Bruce Bochy if you aren’t planning on doing some big things to improve your team.As it stands right now, they have a middle infield they paid $500 million to last winter and Dane Dunning is their number two starter. They’re going to get a pitcher and I think it’ll be Rodon.

Dansby Swanson

Old Team: Braves
New Team: Braves
Contract: 6 years, $150 million

Swanson picked a heck of a time to have his best season. The contract year is undefeated. He’s a fantastic defender and had his best defensive season last year. He wasn’t and isn’t a great hitter, but with his defense, even if he’s average, he’s worth it. And he’s been average or better in each of the last three seasons. I can’t see him leaving Atlanta or Atlanta letting him go. Of course, I couldn’t see Freddie Freeman leaving Atlanta or Atlanta letting him go either, so we’ll see, I guess. They do have Vaughn Grissom who could take over, but I don’t think that’ll stop the Braves from keeping their hometown guy.

Chris Bassitt

Old Team: Mets
New Team: Twins
Contract: 3 years, $48 million

Bassitt is my absolute favorite target for the Royals, but it seems like his market might end up a little bit out of their reach right now, which is unfortunate. But it’s not surprising either because he’s a really good pitcher. He certainly isn’t an ace, but he made 30 starts last year and a fluke injury limited him to 27 in 2021, so he’s a guy you can count on for innings and effective ones at that. The Twins have a lot of guys who could be solid enough in a rotation, but they could really use someone to put up there with Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle. I’m not sure Bassitt is the guy to target for the Twins to be able to take control of a playoff series, but adding a dependable arm who can give innings could help them actually get there.

Willson Contreras

Old Team: Cubs
New Team: Astros
Contract: 5 years, $100 million

This was a tricky one. A bunch of teams got next to no catcher production and Contreras hit .243/.349/.466, so he would help all of them. The Guardians, Cardinals, Mets, Brewers, Twins, Yankees, Padres, Rangers and probably more make sense for Contreras. But I think the champs saw some issues with the bottom of their order in the postseason and work to lengthen their lineup a bit with this spot being a place they can do it. Maybe I’m off because this does go a bit against what they’ve done in the past, but I think Contreras makes a ton of sense here. Plus, the Crawford Boxes could be very kind to him.

Koudai Senga

Old Team: Fukuoka Softbank Hawks
New Team: Dodgers
Contract: 4 years, $61 million

Senga is a full-on free agent, so no need to deal with the posting process. He throws a 96 MPH fastball, a splitter that is nasty and a cutter and slider, which are both solid pitches as well. Maybe it’s a little unfair to just assume he goes to the Dodgers because so many Japanese players have, but they have a real need in their rotation. Yes, they have Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin and I’d guess they re-sign Clayton Kershaw as well, but they’re losing their fair share of pitchers and Walker Buehler is likely out for 2023, though he thinks he’ll be able to come back. This feels like a nice fit for the righty, though a lot of teams will be in on him.

Clayton Kershaw

Old Team: Dodgers
New Team: Dodgers
Contract: 1 year, $19 million

And here’s that guy. He kind of quietly was awesome in 2022 with a 2.28 ERA, 2.57 FIP and typically great peripherals. The year for Kershaw to leave the Dodgers was last year. And he didn’t. I just don’t see it happening. He’ll play on one-year deals until one of the two sides says no, but that isn’t happening this winter.

Brandon Nimmo

Old Team: Mets
New Team: Padres
Contract: 4 years, $88 million

Nimmo stumps me. He has a career .385 OBP (.367 last year) and plays center field. He won’t turn 30 until right before the season starts. The issues are that the defense gets mixed reviews from the metrics and he has struggled to stay on the field. Since he’s been in the big leagues for good in 2018, he’s played at least 85 percent of his team’s games in 2018, 2020 and 2022. But he played 69 games in 2019 and 92 games in 2021. So how do you value a guy like that. I’ve seen one seven-year prediction for him and I think that if he does get seven years, it’s at the expense of some big-time AAV. I don’t know. I kind of gave him the AAV I’d bet he’s looking for at maybe a year less than a lot of people seem to think he’ll get and I threw a bit of a dart at a team that could really use some OBP and maybe a left fielder who won’t kill you in center if Trent Grisham goes down.

Jose Abreu

Old Team: White Sox
New Team: Rangers
Contract: 2 years, $32 million

Maybe Abreu is more likely to return to the White Sox with Pedro Grifol in the fold as manager, but he’ll be 36 next season, so there’s no guarantee what he’s done can continue. After a slow start, he hit .332/.405/.480 over his last 125 games in 2022 and can certainly help a team a ton. I think the Rangers know they need offense and a consistent bat and he’s someone they’ll target heavily. The fact that it won’t take a ton of years or money opens him up to a lot of different teams, so he’s kind of a wild card, but I think the Rangers will love the type of bat and leadership he provides to help the middle of their lineup.

Tyler Anderson

Old Team: Dodgers
New Team: Angels
Contract: 2 years, $25 million

I’ve written some about Anderson as a possible Royals free agent target. And he’s someone they’ll likely look at, especially if his price is reasonable. He’s coming off a 178.2 inning season where he posted a 2.57 ERA and a 4.8 percent walk rate, so he’s attractive. He also likely won’t require too many years, so that’s even more attractive. He’s ben a strike thrower his whole career, but he found a way to get hit hard less this season, which was a nice change for him, though one I’m not completely sure is sustainable. The Angels have a desperate need for quality arms, so I think they’ll be in on someone and their fans will be disappointed that Anderson is the get, but I think he’ll be just fine for them.

Anthony Rizzo

Old Team: Yankees
New Team: Padres
Contract: 3 years, $51 million

Looking at contenders who could use a first baseman based on last year’s stats, you see the Astros, Giants, Rays, Twins, Orioles and then maybe the Mariners and Brewers to go along with the Padres, who traded Eric Hosmer and traded for Josh Bell, who is now a free agent. I think Rizzo could easily return to the Yankees, so don’t discount that, but my prediction is he goes back to the Padres where he played his first 49 big league games. It’s a good fit if they want to keep Jake Cronenworth at second base more often. And they have a pretty big DH opening in their lineup as well, so there’s some rotation that could happen to keep guys fresh.

Joc Pederson

Old Team: Giants
New Team: Giants
Contract: 3 years, $36 million

I don’t know why Pederson isn’t getting more love on some of the other free agent lists I saw. Maybe I’ve just read the wrong ones, but he hit .274/.353/.521 last year in 433 plate appearances. Yes, he’s a platoon bat, but he hits from the strong side of that and he seems to be pretty great in the clubhouse. Plus, he held his own against lefties in a very limited sample in 2022 (.245/.333/.408). I think he gets a bigger deal this winter than he’s been able to get the last couple and he sticks with the Giants on that as they can’t really afford to give up offense. I do think they’ll go very hard after Judge, so Pederson may have to wait.

Andrew Benintendi

Old Team: Yankees
New Team: Astros
Contract: 4 years, $56 million

While Benintendi doesn’t provide much in the way of power, he’s a nice piece in a lineup that already has plenty of it. He hit .304/.373/.399 between the Royals and Yankees and only struck out 14.8 percent of the time. He won a gold glove in 2021 and was good again in left field in 2022. A team like the Astros makes a lot of sense. In this world, they let Yuli Gurriel go, slide Yordan Alvarez to first base (and DH) and give left field to Benintendi to patrol and sort of fill the Michael Brantley role of previous years. I wonder a little if I’m a year too high on the number of years, but I think he’s a great fit in Houston, especially where his arm is hidden a bit in a small left field. And he’s familiar with playing a small left field from his time in Boston.

Jameson Taillon

Old Team: Yankees
New Team: Orioles
Contract: 3 years, $45 million

I was pretty convinced Taillon was going to be one of the best in baseball a few years ago, but he’s simply settled in as a good starter, which is worth quite a bit too. I feel like if you ask Yankees fans, you might not get a glowing review of Taillon, but he threw 177.1 innings with a league average ERA and only walked 4.4 percent of hitters. That works. I’d love it if the Royals would give Taillon a deal, even if it does go to three or four years, but I think they probably won’t spend that much. Instead, I have the Orioles getting some much-needed pitching to help with their rebuild. They really ought to be in on guys like Rodon and Senga as well, but I have a feeling they won’t swim in the deep enough waters for Rodon or get too involved in a Senga negotiation.

Josh Bell

Old Team: Padres
New Team: Cubs
Contract: 3 years, $39 million

Bell has been a perfectly adequate hitter in his career and then has exploded at times. From 2016 through 2018, he hit .260/.348/.436, which is fine but also sort of meh for a first baseman. Then he hit .277/.367/.569 in 2019, which is great but also hit .225/.346/.413 in his final 57 games that year. He struggled in a big way in 2020 but bounced back with Washington, hitting .278/.363/.483 for them over 247 games before getting traded to the Padres where he hit .192/.316/.271 in 53 games. So who is Josh Bell? My guess is he’s probably a lot closer to the 2016-2018/2021 version. He’ll get you a solid OBP and he’ll show off some power but will also slump some. The Cubs need a first baseman, though, and I think he’s a good fit for Wrigley and they’ll give him a few years.

Martin Perez

Old Team: Rangers
New Team: Rangers
Contract: 2 years, $34 million

What a weird career Perez has had. He was with the Rangers for a long time, had some success but always felt like he could do more. Then he started throwing harder for awhile before that stopped. Then he spent some time in Boston where he was generally fine before he came back to Texas and had a career year at 31 years old. But after giving them 196.1 innings and them needing rotation help as has been mentioned, I think he comes back and slots in with Rodon and Jon Gray to get them started on the road to a pretty decent rotation. There’s risk in a deal with a pitcher who has had this sort of career path, but it’s not huge at only two years.

Nathan Eovaldi

Old Team: Red Sox
New Team: Giants
Contract: 3 years, $42 million

You’ve seen a fair amount on Eovaldi from me because he throws strikes and I’ve been targeting pitchers for the Royals who do just that. He’s had trouble staying healthy over the years and only made 20 starts in 2022. Still, he was effective, though not as good as he was in 2021. But he was very good in 2021, so a team will likely take a chance on that and the Giants with the way they handle pitching make a lot of sense here. I think the big park in San Francisco will help him out as well as he had some bad luck on fly balls, but that’ll happen sometimes in Fenway.

Kenley Jansen

Old Team: Braves
New Team: Red Sox
Contract: 2 years, $24 million

The Red Sox bullpen had the fifth-worst ERA in baseball, so that’s an area they’ll certainly want to target to help get out of the basement in the AL East. Jansen just keeps pitching well. He wasn’t quite as good in 2022 as he was in 2021, but he still struck out 32.7 percent of all hitters and limited walks well enough. I wouldn’t be surprised if a two-year deal he signs comes with an opt-out, but I just think the Red Sox make a lot of sense for him with their bullpen issues.

Jurickson Profar

Old Team: Padres
New Team: Yankees
Contract: 3 years, $33 million

Profar had a nice bounceback season for the Padres last year, hitting .243/.331/.391, which seems worse than it is. It was good for a 110 wRC+ due to the park factors in San Diego. He walks a lot, doesn’t strike out and has enough power to do some damage, especially in right field when he’s hitting lefty. DRS has rated him well as a left fielder and he can also help out around the diamond. I don’t know why I have a feeling the Yankees would be interested, but I think they will be for the same reason they targeted Benintendi on the trade market. Profar’s skillset is something that team could use more of, especially if Rizzo leaves.

Zach Eflin

Old Team: Phillies
New Team: Royals
Contract: 2 years, $17 million

Eflin is not an innings-eater. He threw 75.2 innings in the regular season this year and just 105.2 last season. But he has been generally pretty solid over the last five years with a 4.16 ERA and 4.02 FIP in 531.2 innings. He doesn’t walk many and he gets some strikeouts. For a team like the Royals that needs arms, he can be a nice fit and I think he’s a good bet for someone they might target. He’s had some home run issues in the past at times, and Kauffman Stadium is a good place to rid yourself of those. I’d say he’s a good bet for 22-25 starts at a league average or so ERA, which is something the Royals need a lot more of based on last season’s rotation.

Here’s the whole list in easier to digest format:

The end of the list is where things can get a little murky. There are a handful of players who could fit in that 22-25 range, I think. Don’t take the rankings too seriously. It’s just one guy’s opinion. But if these all turn out right, please take them very seriously. I included Eflin at the end because we talk Royals here at Inside the Crown and I wanted to put someone who I think the Royals end up signing on this list and really, he could easily be 25 just as much as anyone who would be 26 to like 40 could be.

If I had to guess, I’d say the Royals are in on a few, miss on most and ultimately end up with Eflin and Zack Greinke along with maybe someone like Carlos Estevez, who I wrote up the other day, in the bullpen. Maybe they’ll snag another reliever and check in on someone like Mitch Haniger or another right-handed hitting outfielder. I also would expect them to sign a backup catcher. I don’t know if that’s Curt Casali or maybe Omar Narvaez if the market doesn’t pan out for him, but it seems like they want to add someone there as well. The off-season is here, either way, friends, and that means we’re in for some dull days and some incredibly fun days ahead.