2023 Spring Training Storylines

We've made it! Baseball season has (sort of) begun.

When the final out was recorded on October 5th, we were faced with months without Royals baseball. After the 2022 season, that wasn’t the worst thing in the world, but the Royals made news throughout the winter. They fired their manager and pitching coach that night and their hiring process took some time as they found replacements that both came from the organizations everyone wanted them to come from. But they were quiet in free agency early and it sort of felt like the winter was never going to end. But the Royals got a little more active by signing some pitchers and making some trades, and now we’ve made it to spring training.

And this spring is the start of an informative season. The Royals have publicly said they’re building for 2024 or 2025. I think the general consensus is they’ve got the building blocks in the lineup, but those guys need to take steps this season. The issue, as it always seems, is pitching.

New Coaches, Who Dis?

I’ve written this so many times over the past few months, but the Royals brass believes the biggest issue with the organizational pitching philosophy was at the big league level. They fired Cal Eldred (years too late but they did it) and they moved Larry Carter from the bullpen coach to the AA pitching coach. They brought in Brian Sweeney from the Guardians organization and Zach Bove from the Twins organization. They also promoted Mitch Stetter from the minor league staff to become the bullpen coach. I’m not going to dig into what they can do. I’ve done plenty of that throughout the winter. But they are the single biggest storyline this spring.

We won’t get a full answer over six weeks in Surprise, Arizona, but all eyes will be on the Royals pitching that they’ve been counting on since starting to reload their system with the 2018 draft. The name I keep hearing the most is one that may surprise you - Jackson Kowar. Almost every single person I talk to wants to see what this new pitching instruction can do for him because they see the stuff to succeed but he obviously has done basically the opposite of that. One scout I spoke with a couple of weeks ago thinks he’s a reliever, but a great one. One I spoke with back in December (I think) believes he can still be a top of the rotation starter with the right alterations to his pitch mix.

But, of course, it’s not just Kowar. I wrote about it last week. It’s Kris Bubic, Max Castillo, Jose Cuas, Jonathan Heasley, Carlos Hernandez, Richard Lovelady, Daniel Lynch, Alec Marsh, Collin Snider, Angel Zerpa and more. When the Royals publicly and repeatedly told us that their issues in pitching development were at the big league level, the single biggest story for 2023 is how the pitchers would develop with these new leaders. And that all starts in Surprise. And I should warn you. From the outside, we may not actually know how it all goes.

You know that spring training stats can be tough to evaluate. But especially when pitchers are working on things and trying to change what they’ve done for entire careers. So I would urge you to not get overly worried if this pitcher gives up three homers or that pitcher walks four in three innings. It might be a sign of things to come, sure, but I think what’s important is what is actually happening behind the scenes and we may not have access to that.

Who Else Starts?

We know that Brady Singer is in the rotation. We know that Jordan Lyles and Zack Greinke are too. What we don’t know is who fills out the rest of the rotation to start the season. As I wrote last week, my guess is the other two are Lynch and Brad Keller, but there will be some big-time competition going on. They’ll be joined by basically everyone above other than Hernandez, Cuas, Lovelady and Snider (and maybe Castillo) with all given a real shot to win that spot in the rotation. Okay, real shot might be a little strong. I think something pretty drastic would have to happen for someone like Marsh to open camp with the club, but he’ll get some innings.

So it’s a big battle. I believe the frontrunners right now are Lynch and Keller, but it does get interesting because of the options game. Lynch, Bubic, Heasley, Zerpa, Castillo, Kowar, Marsh and others all have options remaining. Keller is the only one who doesn’t and, while I don’t think they’d just release him if he doesn’t make the rotation, they could trade him. You may have heard this before, but pitching can be fickle.

The Orioles made a couple moves to add a couple of veterans, but their current projected rotation features Dean Kremer as the starter with the third-most service time and he’s at less than two years. Injuries, ineffectiveness, all of that can plague them. They could potentially use a guy like Keller should a need come up in mid-March. The Angels project to have five lefties after Shohei Ohtani. Maybe they decide they want another righty. What if the Diamondbacks decide they need more depth? The point is there could be a market.

It’s a good thing the Royals have a full and normal spring for the first time since 2019. And it might even be a good thing to see Singer in the WBC because it gives even a few more innings for evaluation. Just remember, the results may not end up being what matters. Arizona is notoriously difficult to pitch in and spring stats are misleading. But every one of these guys needs to be on his “A” game or else they’re likely looking at a trip to the bullpen at best and maybe more likely a visit to Omaha to start the season. It’s not that Omaha isn’t lovely, but these guys want to be in Kansas City.

Position Battles

There are, I believe, four players who will be in the lineup (health permitting, of course) on March 30 and don’t need to fight for that spot during the spring. They are Salvador Perez, MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Bobby Witt Jr. Everyone else is working for their spot. Some are more likely than others.

Right now, Hunter Dozier is the third baseman, but he could be pushed by Nate Eaton, Nicky Lopez, Matt Duffy Johan Camargo and maybe Maikel Garcia, who is a shortstop, but Witt is absolutely going to play there. I don’t know the answer to how tight the hold on third is for Dozier, but I would imagine the spot could be taken away from him with the type of spring that we’ve seen far too often from so many Royals only to see them start the season with a thud. I think I’d probably rate the players with the best chances of taking third base as Duffy, Eaton, Lopez, Camargo and Garcia in that order, but I could see one of them coming out of it ahead of the current favorite.

Over at second, Michael Massey is likely the starter heading into games this weekend, but he and Lopez are pretty close to even in that battle. I suppose Gardcia could factor in here as well, but I don’t think so. I guess Duffy could be a part of this too, but I also don’t think so. The only other name who hasn’t been mentioned much is Samad Taylor. He’d seemingly be a longshot, but he was added to the 40-man this winter, so he’ll get a chance in camp, especially with Lopez out for the WBC.

And the outfield is interesting. Melendez is likely the starter in left, but he’s going to catch a fair amount and DH some as well. I wrote last week that I think it’ll be Kyle Isbel in center, Drew Waters in right with Matt Beaty and Eaton on the bench as reserves as well as Edward Olivares at DH and playing outfield. But the only one I feel fully comfortable with is Melendez. One of Isbel or Waters will be in center, so they’re battling for that, but then right field gets pretty competitive. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the above starting in right field on Opening Day, but you can maybe even add in Nick Pratto and Tyler Gentry. Pratto is a very good defensive first baseman, so if he impresses, maybe he plays first with Pasquantino at DH, but I could also see him in a corner outfield spot. I don’t think Gentry makes the team, but he’ll be in camp and Melendez is another Royal who will be at the WBC, giving more time to some minor leaguers.

Witt’s Improvement

This one might be more of a long-term intrigue throughout the season, but I’m very interested to see how Witt looks this spring. Sam McDowell wrote a great column about Patrick Mahomes last week. You don’t need to read the whole thing (though I’d recommend it), but I’ll pull out one line that made me think of Witt.

What we should take away from the past 12 months is that Mahomes is an athlete driven by his failures — even more than his successes.

I don’t know this to be true, but many people have told me that Witt is driven in the way Mahomes is driven. And there are comparisons, of course. Both are sons of big leaguers, so they grew up in a clubhouse. Both have famously trained with Bobby Stroupe. And both have otherworldly talents. I very much get the sense that an up and down rookie season may end up being a good thing for Witt because of the drive that will make him work to improve. I don’t think it’s fair to take the comparisons any further, but Witt is coming off something of an uneven season. The only thing I think you can say definitively is that it wasn’t bad.

At times it was very, very good. But he had big-time defensive issues to go along with long periods of struggles with the bat. As I wrote in the article linked above, I do think the hamstring injury ended up causing him more problems than we ever realized. Moving forward, I sure hope they’re more cautious with their biggest potential star, but he hit just .248/.285/.382 in 253 PA after he came back from the injury. In the previous 253 plate appearances, he hit .279/.324/.50 with 13 doubles, three triples, 11 home runs and 15 steals in 16 tries. Extrapolate that to a full season and it’s 35 doubles, eight triples, 30 homers and 40 steals. He was figuring things out.

Is it as simple as to say that a hamstring derailed his season? Of course not. It was his first full season, so he may have started to wear down anyway at some point. But it’s hard to deny what we saw in that stretch. Heck, you can take it even farther and see a .274/.319/.487 line in 81 games from April 21 to July 24. Yes, these are absolutely selective endpoints and there are things Witt needs to work on. It’s hard to walk less than five percent of the time and be successful. He simply has to chase less. But he didn’t swing and miss as much as I expected.

He also struggled with fastballs at times. He’s not the first and he won’t be the last. His swing was geared for lift, and that led to the barrel dropping sometimes. That’s generally okay enough if the pitch is down, but if it’s up and he doesn’t have time to adjust, well, there are issues there. And sure enough on fastballs up, he hit .209 with a .313 SLG. That’s not good enough. So yes, there are things to build on and things to work on. And if the Royals are going to get where they want to go, Witt is wildly important, so his improvement is a massive story this spring.

There are more stories for sure. Some are smaller but will get bigger. Some don’t even exist right now but will emerge as camp goes on. I actually think it’s a good thing the Royals have so many players headed to the WBC because it gives them a chance to get a look at some other players who may not find as many at bats. I also think it’s so important that they finally have a normal spring for the first time since 2019. The 2023 Royals may not end up being good. Heck, they probably won’t. But I think they’re a lot more interesting than any iteration we’ve seen in awhile and the spring stories reflect that.