2024 MLB Predictions
BASEBALL IS BACK!!!!!!!
Outside of last week’s series in South Korea, we last saw a meaningful pitch thrown 148 days ago. That was Game Five of the World Series that saw the Texas Rangers win their first World Series title. That’s just far too long to have to wait, but the wait is over today. As I do every year, I have put together my predictions for the 2024 season. Some may seem obvious, some may seem odd, but I always pride myself on putting all of this out there every season.
HAPPY OPENING DAY!
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Let’s get right to it.
Standings
American League
I wanted to predict the Royals would win the division, I swear, but I just can’t get there. I think there is upside to add a handful of wins, and maybe enough to take away from the Twins and win the division, but I see a below average, but not terrible club in Kansas City this year. I think the Twins need some starting pitching, but they’ve done a nice job of getting more out of their pitching staff than you’d expect and their offense should be enough to overcome some of the issues. Now, they’ll be relying somewhat on a couple of guys who have had their share of injury issues in Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton, so things can go sideways for them. If Carlos Correa doesn’t bounce back, I don’t feel as good about them winning the division.
As for the rest, I think the Guardians can pitch but won’t hit enough, which is their story from last year. I also worry a bit about their bullpen. It’s not that they don’t have talent, but it just doesn’t feel as good as they’ve had in the past. They got nice seasons from Trevor Stephan and Enyel De Los Santos last year. Stephan is now out for the year and De Los Santos was traded to the Padres for Scott Barlow. I think you all know I love Barlow, but he’s not as automatic as he once was. That could backfire. The Tigers are going to be better. Spencer Torkelson hit another gear in the second half. Riley Greene will be back. They’ve got some good young hitters and their pitching staff is led by Tarik Skubal, who is legit. But they have some control issues and we’ve seen how that can torpedo a staff. And the White Sox have built a team around former Royals, so, yeah.
This is one of two divisions I have with four teams above .500, but the gap is tighter in this one, so I feel comfortable saying it’s the most competitive division in baseball in 2024. The Orioles burst onto the scene and then traded for their ace in Corbin Burnes, but they’ll be without Kyle Bradish for at least a bit. He’s expected to be ready “early in the first half” but we’ll see. I’m also kind of shocked at their decision to send Jackson Holliday to the minors given that if he finishes top two in Rookie of the Year voting, he gets a full year of service time. And I do think he’ll finish top two, so they’ll be without the top prospect in all of baseball who is pretty much ready for a couple of weeks for no reason if that happens. It’s risky.
The Rays are always solid. They have so many injuries to their rotation, yes, but I still believe they’ll pitch it just fine. I have some questions about the depth of their offense, particularly if they’re without any of their top five hitters for any stretch of the season, but they’ll probably hit enough regardless. I might be giving the Yankees too much credit without Gerrit Cole for a few weeks and if it ends up being longer, I’d probably knock them below the Blue Jays. But they could also easily win 10 more games than that if Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes bounce back and they do have Juan Soto now to pair with Aaron Judge. Their offense could be special. The Blue Jays have good pitching and I really liked their Justin Turner pickup, but unless Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. starts hitting like an MVP candidate again, I don’t think they’re quite good enough. And the Red Sox are fine, but they don’t have enough pitching to compete in a long season in that division.
The bottom of this division is incredibly easy. The A’s are terrible and will stay terrible, though I’m sort of regretting so many losses because they’ve got some interesting pieces. The Angels have Mike Trout and some vaguely interesting players, but they’re just not that great and can we really expect Trout to play 150 games? He last did that in 2016 (I didn’t expect it to be that long ago). The rest, though, is intriguing. The Mariners can really pitch and have probably the best player in the division. And that’s high praise because there are a lot of excellent players in this division. But beyond Julio Rodriguez, I have a hard time figuring out which player is going to consistently contribute offensively. They have possibilities, no doubt, but nothing that screams second in command.
So that leaves the Rangers and Astros at the top, which is reminiscent of last season when they both won 90 games, but the Astros held the tie-breaker and took the division. If you ask me tomorrow if I’d flip these two, I might say yes. The Astros without Justin Verlander are a little less scary in the rotation, but I think Framber Valdez is better than anyone the Rangers have in their rotation to start the year. I like the back of the Rangers rotation better than the current back of the Astros rotation, though. I don’t know. They’re both really good. I’ve got the Astros right now, but I don’t feel wonderful about it.
National League
I feel probably the last confident about this division. The Cubs won 83 games last year and are getting back most of the team that did that, plus they added Michael Busch in a trade with the Dodgers and Shota Imanaga in free agency. I have plenty of doubts about them, but I like their rotation and I think they’ll hit enough. The Brewers in second without Burnes or Brandon Woodruff may seem odd and I think I might regret this by mid-May, but I still think they’re a good team. The loss of Devin Williams for awhile will also hurt. But I just don’t love the other teams in this division.
Yes, the Cardinals added pitching, which will help, but I’m not sure I believe in their lineup to regularly produce. Paul Goldschmidt was solid last year, but he’s 36 years old and looked a bit washed during spring. It’s just spring, so take it with a grain of salt, but if he fell off a cliff, I’m not sure I’d be too surprised. Also, I’m not sure I’m buying adding Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson as positives when it’s all said and done. But Sonny Gray will help. The Reds are the “it” team, but they’re dealing with a fair number of injuries. Both Matt McLain and TJ Friedl are out for a bit. Noelvi Marte got suspended. Elly De La Cruz is super exciting, but he also had a wRC+ of 84. I don’t know. I’m just not sure I’m buying it for them just yet. I could see them taking a step back before leaping forward in 2025. And the Pirates actually look like they’re on the right track, but I think it’ll be a year before they start to show improvement in the standings.
There are two legitimately good teams in this division and then question marks. The Braves are a juggernaut. Their lineup is absurdly deep. Their rotation, on paper, looks great. Their bullpen, on paper, also looks great. I think they might be a little thin in terms of bullpen depth, but that sort of stuff works out for the better organizations. The Phillies are a very good club in their own right, but they have to deal with one of the best run organizations in baseball ahead of them. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler at the top of a rotation is one of the best. They have an offense that can beat you in so many different ways. But they’re just not as good as the Braves.
The Mets have talent, but their rotation is a bit of a mess, especially with Kodai Senga out. Maybe Luis Severino gets back on track or Sean Manaea turns back the clock but I think if and when they miss the playoffs, it’ll be because of starting pitching. I actually think they’ll hit enough. My surprise in this division is the Marlins falling back to last place after making the playoffs a year ago. I’m sorry, I just don’t buy it. Their offense isn’t good enough and their rotation has too many question marks right now. Maybe if some of their young talent gets back quickly they can make a move, but I’m hedging here. I do think the Nationals have a bright future, but it’s going to be another year or two.
The Dodgers are better than anyone in this division. Between them and the Braves, you won’t find two more complete teams, though the Dodgers rotation has its questions, at least to start. They’re giving Walker Buehler a bit more time because they expect to need him in October. I get that. But Yoshinobu Yamomoto got lit up in spring training and in his first start in South Korea for the opening series. The potential is there and Tyler Glasnow was a great pickup, but it might take them a minute to get things rolling there. Still, their offense is going to be a monster and their bullpen is good. The Giants did what they needed to do eventually. They added Blake Snell and Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee and Jorge Soler and will get Robbie Ray back midseason and maybe Jordan Hicks can be a starter. They’re just not as good as the Dodgers.
And neither are the Diamondbacks, who I think are going to be solid to good, but are now missing Eduardo Rodriguez for some time. They still have Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, which is a great start, but Rodriguez was important to them. They did just sign Jordan Montgomery, which will help, but I’ll be curious to see how long it takes him to ramp up. I like their offensive potential, but I’m also going to need to see it. The Padres are kind of solid and could sneak up on some teams with the addition of Dylan Cease, but they just give me average vibes again. And the Rockies, like the White Sox and A’s and previously the Royals, exist. So good for them.
Awards
AL MVP - Gunnar Henderson
NL MVP - Mookie Betts
AL Cy Young - Framber Valdez
NL Cy Young - Zack Wheeler
AL Rookie of the Year - Wyatt Langford
NL Rookie of the Year - Yoshinobu Yamamoto
AL Manager of the Year - Rocco Baldelli
NL Manager of the Year - Craig Counsell
Postseason
American League Wild Card
Yankees over Twins in 3
Rays over Rangers in 2
National League Wild Card
Cubs over Diamondbacks in 3
Giants over Phillies in 3
American League Division Series
Orioles over Yankees in 4
Rays over Astros in 5
National League Division Series
Dodgers over Giants in 3
Braves over Cubs in 4
American League Championship Series
Rays over Orioles in 6
National League Championship Series
Braves over Dodgers in 5
World Series
Braves over Rays in 7
I fully reserve the right to delete this post at any time and claim it never happened.
HAPPY OPENING DAY!
I may be delusional but I think the Royals win 85 games this year and are playing meaningful baseball in September.
I predict that the gambling issue is gonna dog MLB all year... Play Ball!