3x3x3: What Was Good, What Was Bad, What to Watch For

Baseball is a game of threes, so here's three in each category.

It’s been a nice break from the 2021 season for Royals fans, who were so hopeful after April and then got another dose of hope at the end of May. Since then, as we’ve said many times, it’s been disappointment after disappointment with the Royals holding one of the worst records in baseball since June 5. At least they aren’t the Diamondbacks? But the time is off a nice time to reflect on what happened, both good and bad. So that’s what we’re doing today.

The Good

1. The New Guys on Offense - There hasn’t been much to write home about offensively for the Royals in 2021. Only a few teams are scoring fewer runs per game. No team has walked less. But two of the big off-season acquisitions have been big for them. When they signed Carlos Santana in December, they picked up one of the most patient hitters in franchise history. He was coming off a bad season, but even in 2020 walked at a rate we haven’t seen from a Royals player in a long, long time. He’s walked more than he’s struck out. He’s on pace for 27 home runs. He’s been a stabilizer in the lineup.
   
   The other new guy came later. The big trade for Andrew Benintendi came just before spring training on February 10. I predicted he’d start slow, and in a rare moment, I was right. He was hitting .180/.254/.230 at the end of that very cold homestand. He hit his first home run the next day and hit .323/.374/.506 before he went on the IL with a broken rib in news that sort of caught everyone by surprise. He came back without a rehab assignment and started predictably slow again, but it’s hard to argue anything other than the fact that Benintendi has been the team’s best hitter since he got going.

2. The Back of the Bullpen - It’s really easy to scoff at this after the last week with the guys wearing down and blowing a bunch of leads and giving up a lot, but even with that, the quartet of Scott Barlow, Jake Brentz, Josh Staumont and Kyle Zimmer has been good this year. Of course, they’ve walked too many, but they’re part of the Royals, so you really would expect that. But the 3.25 ERA for the four of them is solid, if not as good as it was even two weeks before. That number was 2.57 before the start of July. It might seem odd to talk about them as a positive when they’ve seen their ERA balloon in just a handful of games like that, but they’ve actually been really good this season.

3. Salvy - Salvador Perez deserves his own category for the season he’s having. After signing a massive contract extension in the spring, he’s absolutely lived up to it with what is his best full offensive season since probably 2017, which was his best since 2013. As a guy who has worn down throughout his career, the fact that he’s played in every game is a bit concerning and there’s always something in the back of your mind about the Home Run Derby curse, but being on pace for 38 home runs is a huge season.
   

   
   Of course he’s still allergic to taking walks, but he has the second most hard-hit balls in baseball behind Paul Goldschmidt. He has the third most batted balls at 100 MPH or harder behind Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Aaron Judge. He’s smoking the ball all over the place, so while his plate discipline will always limit his offensive value, if he’s hitting the ball this hard, as strong as he is, he’s going to be putting extra base hits all over the field. There’s no sign that this can’t continue for at least a couple more years, so he’s been a massive positive for this team.

The Bad

1. Starting Pitching - Sure I wrote all about it yesterday, but that doesn’t mean it’s not still worth talking about in the bad stuff for this team. Only one group of starters has thrown fewer innings (the Orioles). Only two groups of starters have a lower strand rate (the Indians and Angels). Only four groups of starters have a lower average fastball (Nationals, Diamondbacks, Astros, Twins and Cubs). And only three groups have a higher walk rate (Cardinals, Angels and Reds). One of the few things they do reasonably well is sort of limit home runs, so they have that going for them, but it’s just been a bad year that I obviously think has been the biggest downfall for this team even with their offensive issues.
   
   The biggest culprit has been Brad Keller, but Mike Minor has quietly become a problem. Maybe it’s irresponsible to make this connection because there’s no real sign based on spin rates that he was relying on the sticky stuff, but since they started doing their checks, Minor has made four starts and given up 24 runs on 30 hits in 20 innings with 11 strikeouts and eight walks. In the eight starts before that, he went 50.1 innings with 55 strikeouts and 10 walks with a 3.58 ERA, so it does sort of seem like there’s something there. Keller is a different story. He hasn’t really figured things out at any point for any length of time, but seeing as how I spent all of yesterday bashing the starting pitching, I’ll just leave it at that.

2. The Old Guys on Offense - When the Royals signed Santana and traded for Benintendi, I made the point that it wouldn’t make a difference for the lineup if Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier didn’t get back to something close to their 2019 selves. Now, you might recall that I was very high on Dozier coming into the season, but the reality is that neither of them have been good enough to even be in a big league lineup this season, let alone carry one. They are hitting a combined .180/.259/.331 with 15 home runs, 56 RBI, 170 strikeouts and 52 walks in 591 plate appearances.
   
   They both are in the top six among Royals in hard hit balls, so there is some element of bad luck to them, but not as much as some will have you believe. Dozier’s xBA is .035 points higher than his actual and Soler’s is .029 higher. Soler’s xSLG is .091 higher than his actual, so I guess that’s some sign that he’s been a bit unlucky, but the reality is that it’s just been a lot of bad swings in the wrong situations. The move for Soler is an easy one. He’s a free agent and there are definitely players the Royals can take a look at and just move on, but Dozier signed an extension in the off-season. They need him to get right, but it’s hard to imagine that happening next year. One thing is that I can promise I won’t jinx him next year.

3. The Young Pitching - Oof. The season started with the Royals having a collection of young pitchers that most teams were jealous of. Brady Singer and Kris Bubic had success in the big leagues last year. Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch shouldn’t be too far behind. And then there was Asa Lacy, Carlos Hernandez, Alec Marsh, Jonathan Bowlan, Austin Cox, Jon Heasley and a bunch more. Singer has been fine enough in the big leagues, though he hasn’t shown a ton of improvement. Bubic has had his moments, but also has looked like a guy who has never thrown above A-ball, which sort of feels like we should have seen last year. But for the most part, the rest have not been good enough.
   
   At least with Kowar, he was dominant in AAA before his callup, but Lynch was a disaster in the big leagues and has struggled in the minors. Hernandez has actually shown some promise, so maybe I shouldn’t put him here, but he also gave up a lot before his first demotion to the minors. Marsh has pitched okay, but has had some nagging injuries. Bowlan is out for the year and a good chunk of next year after having Tommy John. Cox has struggled. Lacy has walked way too many batters. Heasley has been good, so there’s that. But the point is that young pitching has done what young pitching often does, and that’s struggle. It’s not the end of the world and there’s still time, so no need to worry entirely, but it sure would have been nice if one of the big guns was having a great season.

What We’re Watching For

1. The Big Prospects - Boy, maybe this should have been in the good section because the bats have generally impressed this year. Bobby Witt, Jr. and Nick Pratto got to play in the Futures Game and since getting back to Northwest Arkansas have picked up where they left off. They should be in Omaha soon. Maybe next week? But it’s not just them. MJ Melendez has had a massive bounceback season. Clay Dungan has shown an advanced approach. Dairon Blanco has been a dynamo for weeks now. And that’s just in Northwest Arkansas. We’ve also seen Rudy Martin promoted to AAA already, Edward Olivares excelling in AAA and Emmanuel Rivera get his first big league shot before the brutal injury (given the timing, not the nature of the injury necessarily).
   
   But there are others talked about a little less who are going to be interesting to watch for the last couple months of the minor league season. Michael Massey is a guy my friend Clint Scoles has been talking up. He just hit three homers yesterday, so the world is about to know who he is, but he might be the second baseman of the future. Here are just some of the interesting names to watch - Jake Means, Vinne Pasquantino, Tucker Bradley, Tyler Gentry, Nick Loftin, Jeison Guzman (when he’s back from the Olympics) and Darryl Collins are just a few of the bats who are worth watching as the season progresses this year.

2. The Young Big League Pitching - This is going to be big for 2022. Keller has had two straight very good starts and it seems like he’s found his slider. While it’s hard to say that the three seasons prior to 2021 hold less weight than 2021, it’d be understandable if the Royals have some concerns about Keller in the rotation moving forward in spite of his success from 2018 to 2020. If he can continue to show off his slider the rest of this season, it’ll go a long way toward making them feel better about him as part of the 2022 version. Singer and Bubic and eventually Lynch and Kowar again will throw more innings in the big leagues in 2021. Hernandez too. And Tyler Zuber should be back at some point. And Richard Lovelady is getting a shot. And Dylan Coleman should come up. While the struggles have been obvious, they have so many arms that will see time in the final 73 games of the season that the story is at least interesting enough to follow because it determines what’s next for this organization.

3. The Trade Deadline - It’s a really interesting deadline for the Royals this year. Okay, it’s always interesting when you’re a bottom feeder, but this year feels like a chance for Dayton Moore to show he truly is more transactional. He has plenty of assets to deal, though I’m not sure how many bring back difference makers. But he shouldn’t be afraid to trade anyone on the big league roster other than Adalberto Mondesi and that’s only because his value is at a low point. No, I know that someone like Salvy isn’t going anywhere and neither are the young arms, but if the deal is there, they should absolutely make it and they shouldn’t look back. The added bonus here is that the moves will allow them to evaluate further in 2021. Olivares is a guy who should be up. The Royals absolutely need to move Michael A. Taylor and probably Jarrod Dyson too and give Olivares every at bat. Kyle Isbel hasn’t been good in Omaha, but I wouldn’t have an issue if they get him back up as well to take his lumps in the big leagues. I already mentioned Coleman and Zuber, but it’s time to see who can help next year and who can’t, so they know who to go after this winter.