5 Bold 2024 Royals Predictions

The new year means new takes for the 2024 Royals.

As silly as it sounds, turning the page on a calendar has some actual psychological impact. We see it during the season when a player is struggling and is ready to start fresh in a new month and we see it in life when the new year begins. It’s why New Year’s Resolutions are a thing. I usually do something like this closer to spring training and I might do it again once the rest of the offseason settles, but I wanted to start 2024 with some bold predictions. Some might call these “hot takes” but I’m not sure if that’s really in the vernacular anymore and, anyway, I’m old now, so get off my lawn with your new-aged mumbo jumbo way of talking.

Let’s just skip the rest of the pleasantries and get right to it.

Bobby Witt Jr. Finishes Top 3 in MVP

This is probably not all that bold for a Royals fan to consider, but the reality is that there isn’t a whole lot of precedent for a Royals player to be up this high. Here’s a list of all Royals to ever finish even in the top five of an MVP vote:

Lorenzo Cain - 3rd, 2015
George Brett - 2nd, 1985
Dan Quisenberry - 3rd, 1984
Hal McRae - 4th, 1982
George Brett - 1st, 1980
Willie Wilson - 4th, 1980
George Brett - 3rd, 1979
Amos Otis - 4th, 1978
Al Cowens - 2nd, 1977
George Brett - 2nd, 1976
Hal McRae - 4th, 1976
John Mayberry - 2nd, 1975
Amos Otis - 3rd, 1973

That’s 13 players in 55 seasons of Royals baseball. Now, admittedly the pace has slowed down quite a bit from it was 12 during the first 17 seasons with only Cain adding a top-five vote in the last 38 years, but it shows just how rare it is for the Royals to get award consideration. They’ve only had 19 others even finish in the top-10 in their history. So that’s 32 top-10 MVP finishes in 55 seasons. A little surprising, but also not entirely surprising when you consider how little winning this team has done since the early-90s.

So why is Witt going to be the next to finish at or near the top? I think the answer is pretty obvious considering he finished seventh in 2023, but I’ll give you a little more information. From the All-Star break on, Witt ranked third in the American League among position players in fWAR. He was also third from June 1 on.

While that’s not the only factor that goes into MVP voting, it’s something that is considered. If he can keep that up, it stands to reason that he could easily finish in that top three. But he’s also helped quite a bit by free agent movement, specifically Shohei Ohtani. While Ohtani’s work will only come as a DH this year anyway, he also won’t be doing it in the American League. So Witt is left to fight with mere mortals. Even with Juan Soto switching leagues this year, he still isn’t Ohtani.

When I put it that way coupled with his performance in the vote in 2023, this doesn’t feel quite as bold as I originally thought, but the MVP rewards excellence and big-time stats. If Witt can jump to 35 home runs and add one more steal to get to 50, that’s a big-time stat. Only one player has hit 30 or more homers and stolen 50 or more bases since 1993 when the league expanded and that was Ronald Acuña Jr. last season. So to get to 35/50 would be pretty noteworthy. And if the Royals improve even to the mid-70s in wins, that’s such a big improvement that it becomes a story. Even if it’s because of improved pitching, Witt will be seen as the catalyst for the jump which will help him get votes too.

Brady Singer Will Become a Reliever

I think this one is actually bold because Singer has become the bizarro-Saberhagen. He was solid in 2020 as a rookie, below average in 2021, excellent in 2022 and downright bad in 2023. So, in an even-numbered year to say that he will pitch his way out of the rotation is pretty bold. But the signs from him in 2023 did not point to an ability to turn things around easily in 2024 and that’s concerning to me. His early-season issues did seem to be explained away somewhat by his participation in the World Baseball Classic because he seemed to figure some things out.

But then he hit another block toward the end of the year before finally hitting the injured list and missing the last few weeks of the season. The end result was a 5.52 ERA with a 4.96 xERA (and, to be fair, a much more acceptable 4.29 FIP). I did wonder a bit if he was bit by some inherited runner issues with a bad Royals bullpen, but he left 15 runners on for a reliever to clean up last season and the Royals bullpen let six of them score. While 40 percent is well above the league average of 32 percent, it only really adds one earned run to his ledger over what you’d expect from an average enough bullpen.

But even before his sharp decrease in velocity (and yes, I’ll get to that), his pitch mix was a reason people believed he’d end up in the bullpen. I don’t need to rehash all the arguments, but he works with a sinker and a slider and that’s basically it. The changeup has flashed at times, and sometimes he uses it a lot while others he completely ignores it. Moving to the bullpen would make it possible for him to live on two pitches without needing to incorporate a third offering. So that’s always been something mentioned with him.

But when you see what he went through as a starter in 2023 along with the brief look at him in the bullpen in 2022, it’s very easy to see how relief is a role where he can excel. The issues in 2023 start with his lack of velocity. He averaged 93.8 MPH on his sinker in 2022 and that dropped all the way to 92.1 MPH in 2023. That’s a pretty significant decrease. And the results went with it. In 2022, he allowed a .255 average and .387 SLG on that sinker and then that jumped to .338 and .553 in 2023. His slider was honestly pretty much the same, so it’s easy to see where the issue was.

Put him in a situation where he can go slider heavy and maybe see an uptick in velocity from a short outing and I think you can find success. He averaged 94.1 MPH on that sinker out of the bullpen in three outings before getting sent to AAA to get stretched out. It was only three outings, but if he can be 93-95 out of the bullpen, I think there’s an avenue to find success for him. But when you factor in that they should get Kris Bubic back midseason as well as the hopeful promotions of guys like Mason Barnett, Chandler Champlain and David Sandlin among others, it’s easy to see how multiple starters who start the year in the rotation don’t finish it there.

I’ll also give you a bonus bold take and it’s that I think he’s back starting games in 2025. He’s shown an ability to throw innings, so he can slide into the Jordan Lyles role of not caring what the result is as long as he throws six at the end of a rotation. There are worse things to have than that.

The Royals Farm System Will Make a Very Positive Turn

As it stands right now, after ranking as high as top-five heading into the 2022 season, the system remains mostly in the bottom-third of the league and in some publications at the bottom of that. The general consensus is that there is some depth in the system, but the lack of top-tier talent is what is keeping them ranked so low. And I get it. I can’t argue with it. I’ve seen lists that have Ramon Ramirez ranked as the organization’s top prospect. If you’re unfamiliar with Ramirez, that sort of proves the point. He’s a catcher who hasn’t yet made it to full-season ball. It’s not that Ramirez isn’t talented or that he isn’t actually the best this system has to offer. It’s that guys like him are only ranked at the top if there isn’t anything else.

But I think that’s going to change because I think the way they’re going about their development is changing. I know exactly what you’re thinking right now.

I don’t have a lot of actual evidence on the offensive side, though I’ve spoken with enough people inside the game who are encouraged by some of the changes that have been made. I’m going to try to have more on those as the season approaches. But on the pitching side, there actually has been notable progress made.

According to Baseball America a few weeks ago (and then it made the rounds again in their year in review stuff), pitching prospects in the Royals system ranked 4th in xwOBA, 10th in Stuff+, 15th in in-zone whiff rate and 17th in chase rate. This isn’t world-beating or anything, but overall the system ranked 10th in terms of Statcast rankings, and for an organization so inept at developing pitching that they had to give Lyles two years to be a part of the rotation, I think it’s noteworthy. Past failures under an old regime don’t mean that the current regime will fail too. It might! But it might not and I think there’s enough evidence to show that they’re operating differently. If you want a quick refresher on some of the things they’re doing differently, Anne Rogers detailed it back last summer.

On the offensive side, my good friend Alex Duvall, formerly of Royals Farm Report, had an interesting tweet thread the other day. It’s not the first time I’ve heard someone talk about the quality of pitching in the minors and how it can make it tough for evaluation. Obviously it doesn’t excuse poor results, but I agree with Alex that I think we’ll see a big bump from Cross heading into 2024. While the system doesn’t have the high-impact obvious bat right now, I do think there are enough candidates to take a jump that we could see the system take a turn in prospect guru’s eyes.

A bounceback from Cross along with a full season debut of Blake Mitchell (who is extremely talented no matter the demographic) and players like Austin Charles, Carson Rocccaforte, Spencer Nivens and others will go a long way toward getting the Royals out of the 24-30 range and more into the 8-12 range or higher by the end of 2024.

One of the Major Starting Pitching Deals Won’t Pan Out

Both Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha come with a lot of positivity around what they did in 2023 (and 2022 as well for Wacha), but they are anything but sure things. Lugo had never been a full-time starter in the big leagues before 2023 and Wacha hasn’t exactly carried a massive workload anytime in the last six seasons with his 134.1 innings last year representing a high water mark since 2017.

I think it’s easy to look at both signings and think they’ll just continue what they did last season and won’t look back. I hope I’m wrong here, but the odds tell me that one of them will either struggle, miss time or both. So that’s my bold prediction here. I think both know how to pitch well enough that they likely won’t struggle too terribly, but Wacha had a 4.27 xERA and Lugo was at 4.42 last season. Both would have been welcome sights on the 2023 Royals, but neither is exceptional or anything. And if you’re only throwing 115-120 innings with that, it becomes a lot less worth it.

It’s hard for me to write a lot more about this because there isn’t a ton of data to back up what I’m saying other than that Wacha is 32 years old and Lugo is 34 and it’s simply really tough to pitch well into your 30s. I’m playing the odds here and hoping that Father Time holds off for a few more years on both of these two.

Nelson Velazquez Will Lead the Royals in Home Runs

One of the crazier stories from the 2023 season was Nelson Velazquez coming over in exchange for Jose Cuas and consistently putting the ball over the fence. He made Kauffman Stadium, a big park, look a whole lot like Wrigley Field on a day the wind is blowing out. He hit .286/.351/.726 at home for the Royals compared with .179/.247/.436 at all parks outside of Kansas City. First of all, that’s absurd. While Kauffman Stadium is an outstanding place to hit, if you can hit the ball out regularly there, you shouldn’t struggle at most other parks. That feels a bit like a fluke. The power is 100 percent real with him.

His batted ball data says it’s legit. The average exit velocity of 91 MPH ranked 71st among 403 players with at least 100 batted ball events. His hard-hit rate was 38th. His barrels per batted ball event was second. Yes, second, only behind Aaron Judge. His barrels/PA was also second behind Judge. He’s going to swing and miss, but he doesn’t chase a ridiculous amount and when he makes contact, there’s a pretty good chance he’s doing very real damage to the ball. That’s a recipe for success in a lineup that needs his power in the middle.

I think there is plenty of reason for concern with his profile. For one, he feasted on fastballs and struggled mightily with breaking balls and offspeed stuff. There is a way to help him there, but I don’t think it works with the Royals lineup. If Matt Quatraro decided he was going to hit Velazquez behind Witt, that could help him to see more fastballs if Witt can get on base enough to cause pitchers to worry about him stealing bases. Otherwise, the likeliest spots in the lineup would be behind Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez or Hunter Renfroe. I think it’s safe to say none of those three are requiring pitchers to get the ball to the plate fast enough.

So his inability to do damage on anything but the fastball is going to be a bit of a problem. And, as it stands this second, playing time could be an issue for this particular bold prediction. I mentioned Renfroe, but the Royals also have MJ Melendez currently in a corner outfield spot. It’s easy to say that Velazquez can DH, but what happens when Perez gets a day or three off from behind the plate? He’s likely shifting to that DH spot and then someone is sitting. It won’t always be Velazquez, but it will be sometimes.

So there will be some challenges in order for him to play enough to lead the team in home runs with a total that I think will have to be over the 35 I’m predicting for Witt. But man, that power is for real and I think based on the history with Perez, he won’t be taking as many DH at bats as you always assume at the start of a season. Add in that I still believe Melendez gets moved and there’s probably an open lineup spot for Velazquez more often than you’ll realize. And hey, why give bold predictions without giving actual bold predictions?

It’s a little early to be busting these out, but here I am on January 3. I hope the first, third and fifth turn out to be right and the second and fourth turn out to be drastically wrong. As it stands, I’ve been wrong a few times before in my life, believe it or not. Oh, and if you’re wanting my win prediction, you’re not getting it until a few days before the season starts. That might be my boldest prediction of all when that time comes. Let me know your bold predictions in the comments.