A Look Back on Spring Training

The real thing starts tomorrow, so let's take a moment to appreciate another Cactus League title.

The Royals are one of the great spring training juggernauts of our time. Even with their tie and loss in Arlington this week, they finished their spring at 19-13-1, which was actually 19-12 in Cactus League play and we all know the parade only matters for games played under that umbrella. And now it’s over. We can think back fondly on the 14-2 start to spring and how the Royals won a bunch of games even after so many key Royals players left for the World Baseball Classic. But it’s all over now as the season is set to begin tomorrow afternoon.

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And does any of it matter? No. But also yes. But also no.

The statistics all reset tomorrow. The record wipes back to 0-0. For pitchers, striking out a player without a name on their jersey who can only be at a big league game this year by buying a ticket only means so much. But there are a few things I think can be taken away from spring that actually do have some meaning. There were definitely some players who solidified and/or won jobs this spring.

When the spring started, the roster had a few locks you could write in pen, barring injury. These were the position player locks:

Hunter Dozier
Kyle Isbel
Nicky Lopez
MJ Melendez
Vinnie Pasquantino
Salvador Perez
Drew Waters
Bobby Witt Jr.

Waters obviously suffered an injury at the very start of camp, so that left six spots undecided. I think coming into spring, we had a pretty good idea that Michael Massey was the favorite to win the second base job, but if he didn’t, he’d probably be back at Omaha. I think Edward Olivares was also close to a lock, but he wasn’t a guarantee. Nate Eaton had a leg up, but he was no guarantee. We knew Matt Duffy was going to compete wth Matt Beaty, but we didn’t know that Jackie Bradley Jr. and Franmil Reyes would be brought in. We now know that you can add all of them but Beaty to the roster (though Reyes hasn’t technically been added yet).

There were some clear spring winners.

Massey won himself a job on the strength of a .299/.333/.674 spring line. There was an article in Baseball America about 25 players who stood out to scouts this spring and Massey was mentioned. I’ll put some of the scout’s take here and then elaborate a bit.

“Timing is there. Barreling up balls. Surprise isn't a tough place to hit, but it’s not like it’s wind-aided or smoke and mirrors. It’s legit. … This guy’s bat is legit and there’s some power there. I see quite honestly a .270-.280-type hitter with the potential for 20 bombs. I think this is a legit everyday player.”

This jives with what I’ve heard. I remember back in 2021 a different scout than one I’ve talked to this spring said he thinks Massey can be an impact player. I’ve always been a fan of Massey’s, but didn’t agree with that entirely. Maybe it’s just semantics. But what I’ve seen (and mostly heard) this spring is that maybe he can be a little more than that. I still struggle to see “impact” but he’s someone who can make a lineup better. His lack of OBP and lack of real speed probably pushes him to a 6/7 type hitter, but good teams have threats in that spot and Massey showed this spring he can be a threat.

Isbel came to camp with something to prove after a brutal 2022 season offensively. He got a little lucky that his main roster competition, Waters, was hurt so early, but he did everything he needed to do. He made a ton of contact, he didn’t look overmatched and he continued to play great defense in center field. He’s like Massey in that he’s not going to impact the top of a lineup, though I’ll bet he hits at the top at some point for a bit, but if he can be a solid enough hitter at the bottom of the lineup, that will work.

Witt is one that didn’t have to win a job, but he came out of camp with one scout absolutely raving to me about his defense at shortstop. Here’s the caveat. Defense doesn’t normalize in even a full season, so a few weeks of spring training where he didn’t even play that much doesn’t tell us much. But what I was told is that his footwork is light years better than last year and while this scout was sure Witt was a third baseman (or maybe even an center fielder) last season, he thinks maybe he can stick at short. Jose Alguacil for president?

Reyes really did his thing this spring too and earned his roster spot. He hit some absolute bombs and he looked absolutely terrible. I’m worried about the strikeouts late in camp as he started to face pitchers who were actually big leaguers, so we’ll see how that goes, but I think the power is worth a shot. It’s not like the Royals didn’t know strikeouts were part of the package. I don’t think he’s going to go .340/.404/.617 like he did this spring, but if he can walk about 10 percent of the time, keep his strikeouts to 30 percent or so and hit some bombs, the Royals will be happy. That’s sort of what he did this spring, so there’s at least that to build on.

I don’t really see any losers from spring training on the position player side. Someone I spoke with who didn’t see the Royals at all but is just on the outside looking in wondered to me if Lopez’s brutal Cactus League pushed him farther down in the pecking order, especially with Duffy making the roster, but I feel like the Royals really like Lopez for what he is, so I wouldn’t say that’s anything.

I kept track of the stats for the players who are ultimately going to make this roster and they hit a combined .296/.337/.521 this spring. I’m concerned about the 6.5 percent walk rate a bit, but the power was what you want to see and I think they’ll flash some really fun speed with Witt and Isbel and Eaton taking advantage of the new rules. I like this offense heading into the season.

On the pitching side, camp began with actually a few more locks. They were:

Scott Barlow
Aroldis Chapman
Taylor Clarke
Amir Garrett
Zack Greinke
Brad Keller
Jordan Lyles
Brady Singer
Ryan Yarbrough

We knew three of the five starters, but the competition was quickly over with Keller and Daniel Lynch winning spots, though Lynch getting hurt at the end of camp gave Kris Bubic the opportunity to slot in as the five. I thought Clarke went from a lock to not so much with his early injury, but he came back soon enough to get himself back on the roster. I also thought Coleman was a lock from the start, but Anne Rogers did leave him off her first projection, so maybe I’m off there. But it was kind of a fun competition for those last bullpen spots. It looks like Coleman has taken one. Carlos Hernandez had an excellent spring and looked great in the WBC to take one. And after the Royals optioned Collin Snider yesterday, it sure appears that Jose Cuas earned the last spot with an uneven spring.

I really think there were some big winners on the pitching side, though.

Keller was the biggest winner of all in my eyes. He came into camp as the favorite to win a starting spot and did, so maybe he didn’t do anything out of the ordinary, but his 28.4 percent strikeout rate and 6.8 percent walk rate was very interesting to me. I’ve bored you all with scouts’ takes on him this spring, but every time I talk to someone about the Royals, they bring up Keller’s sweeper. The curve is the new weapon, but people are just in love with the slider now. It’s a real shame for the Royals that he’s figured this out now (and we’ll see if he’s actually figured it out), but he can hopefully provide quality innings for this team until the deadline and then hopefully he can be moved for a nice return.

Bubic is a guy who I think got unfairly bashed in some ways. In his first two years, he gave up fewer hits than innings pitched, had a two-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio and had an ERA+ of 104. Yes, he walked too many hitters, but I think there was an idea that he was just terrible and he wasn’t. But he was terrible in 2022. He’s always been someone I believed in a little more just because of his pitching acumen, but even I was worried. And then he started camp hurt and didn’t get to throw that many innings, but 15 strikeouts in 10.1 innings is more what we saw from him in the minors. He still walked WAY too many, so we’ll see how that translates, but it sounds like Lynch is going to be out for about a month when it’s all said and done. This is his chance to prove he belongs.

Hernandez came to camp out of options, but he did get that additional fourth. one that some players get because of injuries, so he could have been sent down, but he showed a lot and his fastball ticked up in a big way this spring. There is a lot of talk about him back in the rotation. I don’t get the sense the Royals believe he does well with a routine like that, so he’s a reliever, but a 31 percent strikeout rate and a very good showing in the WBC worked out for him.

I don’t agree with this, but it sounds like Cuas is the final guy in the bullpen (we may even have that information by the time you read this. I would have kept Lovelady or Staumont over him, but they aren’t, and I’d argue it’s for two reasons. One, he gives a different look than anyone else in that bullpen. And two, he struck out four times as many batters as he walked. So he won that job.

On the flip side, I don’t think Staumont, Taylor or Lovelady were losers in spite of their demotion, but I do wonder if Coleman is on thin ice. He walked nine in eight innings. Yes, he struck out 13, so that’s great, but he also gave up 11 hits. Coleman has the absolute highest ceiling of any reliever on this team, including Barlow, so I’m fine with giving him a few weeks to get right, but he can’t pitch like he did this spring.

In all, the 13 who appear to be making the big league roster posted a 4.03 ERA in 129.2 spring inning with a 28.1 percent strikeout rat and 8.8 percent walk rate with a 1.296 WHIP. If they can carry all of that to the regular season, my prediction of 73 wins is going to be low. I’m not going to bet on that, but the biggest story all season long is going to be how this staff progresses with the new coaches, so we’ll see.

So that’s it. All the excitement of spring training from a month and a half ago is meaningless. Now it’s time for the real thing to start up. I think we’re all very ready for it.