Adios, Michael A. Taylor

The Royals finally traded their center fielder. Let's break down that deal and look at what's next.

Rumors were flying at the deadline in 2022 that the Royals were fielding offers for Michael A. Taylor, but nothing came to fruition. I’ve heard from a few people that the best offer they got was for a middling starting pitching prospect and they felt they were better off keeping him to see if they could find a better deal in the offseason or even into 2023. But as the offseason was rolling, I kept getting indications that they were looking a little more aggressively to move him before the season began. We even got the rumor that they asked for Josh Winder from the Twins a few days ago, and he was ultimately dealt to Minnesota in exchange for two relief prospects, Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz. I’ll get to the return, but first want to point out that the Taylor signing actually worked out incredibly well.

After he was non-tendered by the Washington Nationals, the Royals signed him to a one-year deal for $1.75 million for the 2021 season. He didn’t hit much in spite of showing some increased patience in spring training, but he was an incredible defender in center field. In the midst of that season, the Royals extended him for two more years, which seemed silly, but the total was for just $9 million with the salaries evenly distributed. In today’s game, $4.5 million for a defender who is legitimately one of the best in baseball in center field is well worth the money. And he had a better offensive year in 2022, albeit top-heavy (he hit just .243/.283/.333 after he hurt his shoulder in a pitching performance) and earned every bit of the $4.5 million he was paid.

When a team like the Royals signs a player like Taylor to a deal like that, the goal is to get value both on the field and in a trade. And I believe they did both. Even though his defense wasn’t quite as great in 2022, he was still excellent and that made him attractive to the Twins as a team with a center fielder who needs a lot of days off. So while the original deal the Royals were interested in didn’t come to fruition, they were able to acquire Sisk and Cruz, two relievers who have some legitimate swing and miss stuff.

I’ll start with Sisk. The Twins got him from the Cardinals in a trade that sent JA Happ to St. Louis and while he was just okay in 2021, he was very impressive last year. Across two levels, he threw in 50 games, tallying 63 inning with 35 hits allowed and 76 strikeouts. Lefties hit a ridiculous .086 against him with one extra base hit in 122 plate appearances. So far, you should be drooling. So why was he the return for Taylor and not someone better? It’s the walks. He had 29 of them in those 63 innings. He walked 11.4 percent of hitters, which just isn’t good. But it’s workable with enough strikeouts and he also kept the ball on the ground very well with a 53.9 percent groundball rate between AA and AAA.

He does it with a sinker and slider combination that can be absolutely filthy. And a lot of it is because he has a very deceptive delivery.

Jared Perkins @JaredCP1

Intrigued by the Evan Sisk acquisition for the Kansas City Royals. @twinsdaily had him as the 2022 Minor League Relief POTY. Extremely deceptive delivery. Lots of movement on his FB w/ a couple of good secondaries. Command is improving. 🎥: @DrakeMann4

That would be exceptionally difficult to pick up, I would think. As Jared notes, the command is getting better and while that hasn’t been anything near a strong point for the Royals development system, it’ll be interesting to see if that improves with some of their changes.

The other pitcher is higher upside, but also I think it’s fair to say a lower floor. He’s already slotted in as the number 30 prospect in the Royals system according to MLB Pipeline and the scouting report is that his fastball is elite. I’ve seen one scout call it a 70 and Pipeline has it as a 75 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He’s 6’7” and 225 lbs., so a big boy who can hit triple digits fairly regularly. That’s not necessarily as noteworthy as it used to be, but it’s still a heck of a quality to have. He also has a hard slider that should get a lot of swings and misses. Like Sisk, it’s about throwing strikes. He had a 13.6 percent walk rate in AA, which was paired with a 28 percent strikeout rate, so there’s something to like.

But ultimately I think getting two guys who could easily get big league bullpen innings in 2023 and are under control through at least 2028 for one year of Taylor is a very nice return. Plus, neither reliever is on the 40-man roster, so it clears a little space, likely for the Aroldis Chapman signing that hasn’t become official and we’re all still trying to forget. In fact, that was the subject of a tweet I sent that caused a bit of a ruckus on Sunday.

David Lesky @DBLesky

I’ve heard the #Royals have “two or three” trades in the works. Don’t know ant details but I wonder if you see them try to knock one out before the Chapman deal is official.

Let’s ignore that fun typo. As I tweeted, it builds character or something. Looks like the Taylor deal is going to be enough to clear out the roster spot for Chapman, which I’d anticipate being announced soon. But I want to focus for a second on the “two or three” part because the source I spoke with felt like one was sure to happen (turned out to be this Taylor deal) and another couple seemed pretty darn likely. So who could they be?

I’ve heard three names quite a bit. They are Scott Barlow, Hunter Dozier and Adalberto Mondesi in alphabetical order. Barlow makes a lot of sense for a number of reasons, but the biggest at this moment is that the Royals appear to have promised Chapman a shot at closing. I believe the team is better off with Barlow not closing because of what he can do as a fireman, but I also think it’s difficult to take him out of that role given the salary ramifications with arbitration. So if they signed someone to close, they’re probably at least shopping the guy who led them in saves the last two years. And the other reason it makes sense is that teams who aren’t going to win should trade their relievers, especially those who are only under team control for two more years.

The other two are equal parts more interesting and dull as anything. I don’t think it’s a surprise to anyone that the Royals would like to rid themselves of Dozier’s contract. There are two ways to do it. You either trade him and attach a decent prospect to it and get very little back in return or you trade him for another bad contract. The Giants do a lot of platooning and have Anthony DeSclafani making $12 million in each of the next two seasons. I could see that making some sense. I’ve written this before, but while Dozier’s contract has been a massive bust and it’s a lot of money, it’s only a lot relative to the Royals. His $17.25 million he’s owed the next two seasons including his 2025 buyout is still a pittance to most teams. I’ll be a little surprised if he’s moved, but not shocked.

And, finally, Mondesi. The rumors continue to circulate that the Red Sox have interest in him. I still think there are any number of teams who could be intrigued by his talent. Given the fact that he’s in the last year of team control, the Royals should be thrilled if there are any reasonable offers for him and trade him immediately. I just don’t see them gaining all that much if they wait. Sure, maybe he does something he hasn’t done since 2018 and puts up more than a couple of weeks in a row of trade-worthy play, but I wouldn’t count on it. And even if he does, I can’t see a team giving up that much for two months of a guy who could fall into a slump or get hurt at a moment’s notice. Like Dozier, I won’t be shocked if he’s traded, but I’ll be a bit surprised.

I could also see Brad Keller, Amir Garrett or Nicky Lopez going, but I haven’t heard anything on them, so it’s hard to say if they’re a real possibility or not.

The Taylor move shed $4.5 million from the payroll which brings it back down below $80 million. Including Chapman, they have about $67.3 million guaranteed to 13 players. They have Brady Singer’s outstanding arbitration case or extension to add in, but I have him at the midpoint of what he wants and what the Royals offered. And then I fill in with minimum salary players for the rest. Does this Taylor move open up some salary to reunite with Zack Greinke or even sign Michael Wacha to add another veteran? Maybe! We’ll find out about that.

The other impact is that it opens up center field for someone, likely Drew Waters, Kyle Isbel or Nate Eaton. My first choice would be Waters, who didn’t have the best defensive metrics in his small sample, but it was just that, a small sample. I think he gives you the best upside combination of bat and glove, but the swing and miss is very real. While Isbel struggled mightily with the bat in 2022, he hits the ball hard, makes contact and quietly played bonkers good defense. I don’t know if he’ll ever hit enough to be a regular, but he still doesn’t turn 26 until early in spring training.

And then there’s Eaton, who became a fan favorite quickly. He didn’t swing and miss that much, but he also didn’t hit the ball especially hard. He did, however, show off a cannon in the outfield and was amazing defensively in the outfield. His overall defensive numbers were good not great, but that’s because he gave back so much at third base. I don’t think the Royals can go wrong defensively with any of the three and maybe one of the “losers” of the competition is out in right field to join MJ Melendez as the left fielder. It’s not proven, but that outfield could be pretty good defensively.

All in all, I think the Royals did quite well in moving Taylor and I think the Twins will be very happy with their end of the deal as well. Now we wait to find out what the next move is because I’m pretty confident there will be more in the next few days.