BASEBALL IS BACK!

Here are a bunch of predictions and a Royals game preview.

We’ve waited many weeks and months to reach this point, but in a few hours (or maybe a few hours ago, depending on when you read this, the 2023 season will get underway. In my first pass of these standings, I actually had an identical 12-team playoff picture as last season. I’m not sure that I don’t believe that’ll happen, but I had to do something to change it because that just doesn’t often happen. I kind of surprised myself with a couple of the predictions I made, but we’ll see how it goes. The beauty of predictions like this is that people have generally forgotten about them by the time we know if they’re good or not and I write enough that this particular edition of Inside the Crown is way down the page.

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Division-by-Division Breakdown

AL Central

I like what the Twins have done and think this is the year they get over the hump. I also think that if they don’t, Rocco Baldelli is in trouble. The Guardians are still good, but I think they got a magical season in 2022 from Andres Gimenez that they’re obviously banking on again with his contract extension but he’ll fall off some and the loss of Triston McKenzie will hurt them quite a bit. Of course the Royals don’t to enjoy his absence as they don’t play Cleveland for the first time until late June. I think the White Sox continue to struggle in a lot of the same ways they did last year, only this year they don’t have Jose Abreu or Liam Hendriks, so I think they struggle again and fall off a bit. And the Tigers are led by smart people, but their rebuild is on the struggle bus. I’m guessing they turn it around, but not this year.

AL East

If the Yankees had Frankie Montas, Luis Severino and Carlos Rodon from the start, I’d have probably put them at 100 wins, but they don’t, so I didn’t. I think the Blue Jays are much better balanced now and have the type of team that can win that tough division. The Rays are always right there and this year is no different, but I just think they’re a step behind the other two and will barely miss the playoffs. I like what the Orioles are doing, but they still need more pitching. They’re really close, but this isn’t the year. And I just feel like the Red Sox trade so many of their veterans in July that they go something like 20-36 down the stretch after the deadline.

AL West

I’ll pick the Astros until they prove to me I shouldn’t. I know they lost Justin Verlander and I know Jose Altuve is hurt, but they added Abreu and their rotation is still excellent. I love what the Mariners are doing and they’re really good, but I also think the Angels finally put the team around Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout that will get them into the playoffs as the final Wild Card team. Is it enough to keep Ohtani? I’d still guess no, but it’s a start. The Rangers have spent a ton of money to get competitive and I think they’ve done well, but I just don’t see Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi or Andrew Heaney being healthy enough or Martin Perez repeating his 2022. And then the A’s are there, just waiting to go to Las Vegas.

NL Central

The Cardinals can hit, but I worry about their pitching. I think it’ll be enough to get them to the playoffs, but that’s about it. The Brewers can pitch, but I worry about their hitting. I don’t think it’ll be enough to get them to the playoffs, though they do have some young bats that give me some pause. The Cubs are right on the verge of breaking through but their pitching doesn’t miss enough bats. They’ll need to make a splash or two next year and then they’ll be there. The Pirates remind me of the 2021 Royals and not just because they signed Carlos Santana. They’ll play competent baseball but it won’t be enough. And the Reds have a really intriguing young top three in their rotation that could be fun if they can find some offense.

NL East

This is baseball’s most interesting division and I think the Braves continue to run it. They just do everything too well. The Phillies closed the gap by a lot and if Bryce Harper comes back earlier than expected, I do think all bets could be off. I love the top of their rotation. And the Mets spent a lot of money, but I worry about the health of Verlander and Scherzer as older pitchers who might need some time off here and there. I don’t know. They could win 105 games or 85 games and it wouldn’t surprise me too much. The Marlins can really pitch, but they still need bats. And the Nationals, well, they got a hell of a haul for Juan Soto.

NL West

It’s fitting that a team from San Diego is the “it” pick to take over the division from a team that’s run the division for years (I don’t care that they finished second in 2021, they won 106 games). I know the Chargers are in LA now, but it feels similar. Only this year, I think the Padres have actually done enough to overtake the Dodgers. They have a ton of pitching depth, their offense is good and they catch the ball. Fernando Tatis Jr. could be the difference, though, in them being really good and them being great, so we’ll see. I love where the Diamondbacks are headed, but I think they’re still a year away. I don’t know exactly what the Giants are doing, but I guess you have to pivot when you lose out on the mega talents they were going after. Maybe this is the year the Rockies trade German Marquez? Okay, I’m sorry, enough with the jokes.

MLB Awards

AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
NL MVP: Xander Bogaerts

AL Cy Young: Luis Castillo
NL Cy Young: Max Fried

AL Rookie of the Year: Ken Waldichuk
NL Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll

AL Manager of the Year: Dusty Baker
NL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin

Playoffs

AL Wild Card: Angels over Twins, Yankees over Mariners
NL Wild Card: Mets over Cardinals, Dodgers over Phillies

ALDS: Astros over Angels, Blue Jays over Yankees
NLDS: Braves over Mets, Dodgers over Padres

ALCS: Blue Jays over Astros
NLCS: Dodgers over Braves

World Series: Blue Jays over Dodgers

Today’s Game Preview

Here’s a new feature on Inside the Crown! I’ll preview the upcoming game since I’m no longer writing series previews. I may not go this in depth every day, but you’ll have something in this space every morning I publish.

Zack Greinke vs. Pablo Lopez, 3:10pm

The Royals will face off against Lopez in his first regular season start for the Twins since being acquired for Luis Arraez in an offseason deal. Lopez followed a couple of excellent years in 2020 and 2021 with a solid one last season where he posted a 3.75 ERA in 180 innings with just 157 hits allowed. He does it primarily with a four-seam/changeup mix but also features a sinker and a curve to keep hitters honest. He’s reportedly moved off his cutter and added the pitch d’jour, a sweeper, so there’s some unknown there.

I’m a little surprised lefties hit him as well as they did last year (.249/.320./427) because of that changeup, but he did handle righties much better. I’m very curious to see how the Twins handle their starters this year after having quick hooks last season. Lopez fell victim to that third time through the order penalty pretty harshly, allowing a .669 OPS the first time through and a .686 the second time before that jumped to .797 the third time.

If the Royals are going to get to Lopez, it’s likely going to be against his four-seam fastball. This is extremely inexact, but against four-seam fastballs with similar velocity and spin to Lopez’s, it’s likely that. MJ Melendez and Salvador Perez will be the ones to get to him.

For Greinke, he’s starting his 20th big league season and coming off a year where he had a lower strikeout rate than anyone with more than 40 innings pitched. Can he continue to succeed in a way that pretty much nobody else can? That’s the big question all year long. He was dynamite at home last year with a 1.91 RA and just one home run allowed in 66 innings. He had a…weird season against the Twins. They hit .343/.376/.510 against him in five starts, but he somehow also had a reasonable 4.07 ERA in 24.1 innings. Some of that was due to five unearned runs, but some of it can only be chalked up to magic. Batter/pitcher matchups are nearly meaningless, but outliers are at least fun and Nick Gordon is 7 for 11 with three extra base hits in his career against Greinke.

The weather could play a role in this one. The wind is forecasted to come in SSE with gusts potentially up to 40 MPH. That means it’ll be blowing left to right. Get the ball in the air to left and you’re probably in trouble. Lift it to right and it might carry some. I’d say the Twins have a slight advantage just because Lopez gets more groundballs from Grenke, but I wonder if you don’t see a couple of balls get out that you won’t normally see at Kauffman Stadium from any of the lefty mashers in either lineup.

Whatever happens, I’ll be back in this space to overreact about it tomorrow. Happy Opening Day, friends!