Breaking Down the Infield Logjam

The Royals, for a change, have some actual depth on the infield.

It sort of happened fast, but the Royals suddenly have more players than spots for their infield. With all the injuries to Adalberto Mondesi in 2021 allowing Nicky Lopez to figure things out at the big league level, the Royals have what you might call “a good problem.” And that good problem is one of the things I’m asked about most in mailbag questions, on Twitter and when the checker at HyVee recognizes my name and wants to talk as much baseball as he can in 30 seconds. If you want to know what they’re going to do, here’s the short answer: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. We can’t possibly know. But let’s break it down anyway.

The Main Players

Nicky Lopez

I’m starting alphabetically and weirdly, Lopez is first on the list. When the Royals called him up in 2019, people thought he could be a high-contact, high-OBP guy without much power who could help carry either the bottom of a lineup or be an old-fashioned number two hitter. Unfortunately, he didn’t hit. Like at all. And then when he thought the issue was that he needed to bulk up, he did that before the 2020 season and got worse. He somehow saw his wRC+ go down from 56 in 2019. Now, it was just 55, so he was basically the same, but it wasn’t working.

And as we all know, he was set to play second in 2021 with Mondesi manning shortstop, but he lost that job with a horrific spring and was only given a second chance when Mondesi had a late-spring injury. He mostly ran with that opportunity. He was hitting pretty well early, but hit his stride big-time after Mondesi’s second injury and was basically a quality contributor from June on. I have some questions about how repeatable his 2021 season was, but he was legitimately fantastic.

The one thing that you absolutely cannot question is Lopez’s defense. He was outstanding at second base in 2020 and grew into a very good defender at shortstop in 2021. The metrics argue a bit on him, but when you’re the best in Outs Above Average (OAA) in all of baseball, you’re definitely doing something right.

Possible Positions: SS, 2B

Whit Merrifield

Merrifield is now one of the longest-tenured Royals and was likely slated to play a lot of right field in 2021 before Lopez’s demotion and then Mondesi’s injury in the spring. It was a rough go defensively for about a month, but somewhere after that Rays series that was so cold, he turned things around and very quickly became one of the best second basemen in the American League. It’s funny because I remember him saying that he actually preferred center field years ago, but now is pretty open about preferring infield. I think what he likely prefers is just playing in one spot.

Merrifield is sort of the anti-Mondesi in that he’s in there every single day. Literally. He hasn’t taken a day off since the middle of 2018. But maybe he should. It’s cool to be that guy, but there are times when it seems like the wear and tear is apparent and he’s now entering his age-33 season where a day or two off isn’t the worst thing in the world. I don’t see it happening, but it’s not the worst thing in the world. As good as Merrifield has been for this team, he has a .319 OBP the last two seasons. I know the Royals won a World Series with Alcides Escobar leading off, but it’s probably a good idea to find a new leadoff hitter sooner than later.

Possible Positions 2B, RF

Adalberto Mondesi

We all know the story. The absolute upside is as high as anyone in the game. Mondesi has insane speed, big power and has a rocket arm. The downside is pretty bad. He swings at everything and while I think his health issues were overblown before 2021, it’s hard to count on him to stay healthy long enough to unlock any of his potential. This past season was particularly tough to watch because of how well he finished 2020, how well he played in the spring this past year and how big of a difference he made in random little stints between injuries to start the season.

Dayton Moore made the comment that he couldn’t be counted on for a full season and then he sort of walked it back, but I thought it was very interesting that they played him at third base when he came back in September rather than moving Lopez off shortstop. The team said it was about continuity and rewarding Lopez, which may be true, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that gave us a glimpse into Mondesi’s future.

Here’s the big issue with Mondesi. It’s very easy to look at him and say the Royals have to keep giving him chances to figure it out, but he has two years of team control left. That puts them in a precarious situation. Let’s say he’s playing every day and by July 4 is hitting .293/.328/.562. They’re now down to about 240 games of team control, which means they have to either:

• Let it ride and see how he finishes the year

• Trade the guy

• Extend him

If they let it ride and he finishes the season similarly, he’s in line for the Byron Buxton deal. Which, on the surface, makes some sense. But when you break it down more, it would be one season of success compared to Buxton being hurt all the time but good for multiple years. So that’s a pretty huge risk. If you trade him, that could be rough and the return won’t be nearly what it should be for that talent level because of the history. And if they extend him mid-season, they’re running a HUGE risk because of that same history.

Due to the time left of team control, they find themselves in a situation where the risk with him is massive. If you play him and he stays healthy and he hits poorly, there’s very little time to get him on track to even move him. If you play him and he gets hurt, same situation. The clock isn’t on their side at all with him, which might make prioritizing playing time for him less important.

Possible Positions: SS, 3B, 2B

Bobby Witt Jr.

Witt is arguably the best prospect in baseball. He’s top three at worst. If a Royals player is going to win an MVP in the next five seasons, he’s the best bet. I’m honestly surprised he never got to the big leagues in 2021 given how close he actually was to making the team out of spring training. The big question with Witt is what service time looks like in the new CBA. The Royals have never gamed that, whether you think they should have or not, but that could change if the numbers change enough that it makes sense to leave him down for however long it might be. If service time looks like it did in the last CBA, I’d assume he’s starting the season in the big leagues.

Possible Positions: SS, 3B

The Rest

There are other options here, though I don’t see them as real threats long-term. The best bets are Emmanuel Rivera and Hunter Dozier. I imagine we’ve seen mostly the last of Dozier at third, but the Royals do like Rivera and I think he could be a nice filler if needed for awhile. The one name that intrigues me a little, but I don’t see any sign it’s going to happen, is MJ Melendez. If the Royals are willing to be a little Rays-ish and move guys around more than they typically have, Melendez could factor at third when he’s not catching or DHing once he hits the big leagues. That’s pretty far-fetched, but possible.

The Possible Alignments

The way I see it, there are a handful of alignments out there. Some are better than others.

Merrifield 2B, Lopez SS, Mondesi 3B, Witt ????

I don’t see this one as a real possibility for any length of time because every solution ultimately ends with Witt on the field. But this would be what I’d expect to start the season if Witt doesn’t break camp in the big leagues.

Merrifield 2B, Lopez SS, Witt 3B, Mondesi UTIL/IL

This is the one that I think ends up starting the year or at least is the alignment when Witt comes up. The Royals are going to give Lopez every opportunity to keep the shortstop spot and from reports, Witt wasn’t as good defensively at shortstop in Omaha as Lopez was in the big leagues. This puts the best defense on the field, keeps Mondesi in a role that might help him to stay healthier and gets potentially the best offense on the field if Lopez can sustain what he did.

Merrifield 2B, Mondesi SS/3B, Witt 3B/SS, Lopez UTIL

I’m combining the Mondesi and Witt at short and third possibilities here just to save on space and because the arguments probably go hand-in-hand. This is probably the highest upside combination, no matter who plays shortstop. You get elite athleticism on the left side, Merrifield’s steady defense at second and Lopez there to fill in whenever Mondesi needs a day (or a week).

Where Witt and Mondesi play is actually pretty interesting because I don’t know that you’d want Lopez at third long-term (though I didn’t think you’d want him at short long-term either before 2021, so I could be very wrong). So let’s say Mondesi doesn’t have any injuries, but the Royals want to give him a day off every week. That makes him a 130 to 135-game player which leaves about 30 games for Lopez at shortstop. Do you want to move Witt over to third or leave him at short and let Lopez play third those games? It’s an interesting question. I suppose you’d probably play Lopez at third and leave Witt where he is. I think Mondesi is probably the best shortstop of all three, but if you’re looking for stability there and keeping him out of the middle of the field for health reasons, it sort of muddies things.

Lopez 2B, Mondesi SS/3B, Witt 3B/SS, Merrifield RF

The infield alignment here makes a ton of sense. Merrifield showed off big time at second after some early-season struggles, but that’s a lot of quickness and some legitimately great potentially defensively. You have the same questions with Mondesi and Witt at third and short, but you’re basically saying that Merrifield plays right when all four are on the field, but plays second when Mondesi needs a day and Lopez shifts. On paper, it all makes sense.

The problem is that Merrifield in right field isn’t the best solution. He’s fine defensively in the outfield, but his bat is declining and his defense at second is considerably better than his defense in the outfield. While second is becoming more of a bat-first position, there are worse things than having a league-averageish hitter who can play second at a high level. Plus, you play Merrifield in right field and you don’t get the opportunity to evaluate Kyle Isbel or Edward Olivares (don’t laugh, if there are 78 injuries Olivares might get to play).

Mondesi 2B, Lopez SS, Witt 3B, Merrifield RF

I’m going to guess this isn’t a real possibility, but I wanted to put it out there because the Royals liked Mondesi at second when he was first coming up. I still don’t like Merrifield in right and I think this is a far worse scenario than shifting them around, so I included it to be thorough, but don’t think it’s especially likely.

So…What’s Best?

I don’t know. I know that Merrifield in right field doesn’t make much sense, though I fear we’ll see a lot of it. I know that the Royals have four players who should theoretically be plus defenders at the three positions, so they’ll be in good shape defensively on the infield no matter what. My fear with Merrifield is that he’s going to fall off a cliff at some point. He went from a 106 wRC+ in 2020 to 91 in 2021. He’s heading into his age-33 season. On the plus side, he doesn’t seem to have lost a step and he was still hitting fastballs in 2021. But there’s a world that you don’t have to squint much to see where Merrifield is the worst of the four.

But…he’s got that consecutive games streak and is one of the faces of the team. That shouldn’t play into the decisions, but it most certainly will. I think there’s a scenario where the best lineup is Lopez, Mondesi and Witt in some form on the infield and Isbel in right with Merrifield either on the bench or on another team. We can argue about if they made a mistake in not trading him earlier all day. I think they did, but there’s nothing we can change, so it’s not worth the time of day. I just hope that if that decline does come to fruition that they don’t worry about a streak and worry more about winning.

All that said, I think the best bet is more simple than any of this seems. Witt needs to play most every day. And that’s it. As long as Witt is in that lineup 150 times, that’s the most important thing. From there, Mondesi should get every chance to play when he looks good and he shouldn’t play when he’s not. That seems so obvious, but Mondesi is one of those players that you can just see when he’s seeing the ball well and you can definitely see when he’s not. And I think they should play it by ear with Lopez and Merrifield both. If Mondesi is hitting and Lopez is playing like he did in the second half of 2021, I’m putting Merrifield on the bench. There’s obviously also a DH spot and I’m not opposed to Merrifield in the outfield sometimes.

Ultimately there’s something like 2,200 plate appearances for the four of them when you figure the Royals averaged 37 plate appearances per game, so a bit more than four per player. Looking at just three positions, that’s roughly 2,000 plate appearances there and then you figure another couple hundred for DH and filling in around the outfield. That’s 550 plate appearances per player. If you get Witt 600, it cuts it just a bit to about 530 or so for the other three. That’s plenty to go around, but this is still one of the biggest questions for the Royals heading into 2022 and I’m fascinated to see how they play it.