The Case For (And Against) Extending Andrew Benintendi

The Royals left fielder is heading into the last year of team control, so a decision is nearing.

It was right around this time a year ago that the news came across that the Royals had landed the veteran lefty bat they coveted. They sent Franchy Cordero to the Red Sox, Khalil Lee to the Mets and two players to be named later (ended up being Luis De La Rosa and Grant Gambrell) in exchange for Andrew Benintendi. I’m not going to recap the whole story because we all know it, but he was coming off a terrible 2020 and a rough final month in 2019. He vowed to change his swing back to the one that made him successful before and was excited to be joining the Royals.

I wrote before the season that I thought Benintendi might start slow in a new situation before things turned around. And in his first 16 games, he hit .180/.254/.230 and I was wondering if he could even turn it around. His bat looked slow, which is not exactly ideal. But he got two hits the next day in the first game of a road trip and hit .444/.516/.815 on the eight-game trip. It was the start of him turning things around. He hit .323/.374/.506 from the start of that trip through June 13. It looked like he was back. And then he went on the IL with a rib injury.

When he came back without a rehab assignment before the break, it wasn’t great. He had one three-hit game in the six before the break, but only two hits in the other five games. Then out of the break, he was a mess. He had a .508 OPS the rest of July and then .619 from the start of August through September 5. He was unbelievable the rest of the month to get his season numbers to something north of respectable but still south of great, and now we’re here.

We know the backstory and the Royals have three options with Benintendi now. They can either extend him at some point between now and early November, trade him at some point between now and the deadline or just keep him and let him test the free agent market. Let’s look at the options.

Extend Him

The first thing to mention here is that Benintendi might not even be interested in an extension. Players spend their careers working toward their big payday and that generally comes from free agency. Would he be willing to give up that opportunity to sign with a team that does appear to be on the rise but isn’t there yet? That’s a pretty big ask of someone. On the flip side, you have to wonder how much he actually could get on the free agent market.

He’d be hitting free agency heading into his age-28 season. That’s young for a free agent so he’d have that on his side. The Avisail Garcia contract of four years and $53 million is an interesting starting point for him, but Garcia was two years older this winter. A.J. Pollock got a similar deal a few years ago, but he was three years older than Benintendi will be. Jay Bruce got three years and $39 million when he was heading into his age-29 season. There just aren’t a ton of players like Benintendi hitting the market, so it’s hard to truly gauge his value. But let’s go with the idea that he’d command an extra year than Garcia but maybe at a slightly lower AAV because Garcia was signed with the idea he could play some center field.

So that contract is five years and $60 million, roughly. If he thinks he can get that when you add in his projected arbitration number of $9.3 million, that’s six year and $69.3 million to get his age 27-32 seasons. He’s hit .271/.333/.436 in his last two healthy seasons. He did play good defense for the Royals last season by the metrics, so there’s added value there, but that’s also a pretty middling line. Just because it makes him one of the more productive Royals doesn’t mean it’s anything great. If you can say that he’s definitively the May/September version of 2021, that’s a great deal. But boy there are some inconsistencies there.

But given the issues over the last few seasons, could the Royals maybe find a way to get a couple years out of him and allow him to hit free agency again heading into his age-30 season or even his age-29 season. Maybe it’s a two year deal for $30 million with a team option for $15 million for a season. Maybe it’s a three-year deal for $42 million with an opt-out after 2023 for Benintendi. From my perspective, if that’s what it takes, I’d be on that. Even if it was straight three years and $42 million or so without either side having the option, I’d be interested.

I just have a tough time committing five or six years to a player who has been plagued by injuries the way he has and hasn’t been great when he’s played. But at the same time, who are the alternatives? The Royals have Michael A. Taylor signed through 2023, but his only value is as a center fielder. The other outfielders on the 40-man roster are Kyle Isbel and Edward Olivares along with Whit Merrifield and Ryan O’Hearn who have time in the outfield. Isbel is a similar type of player to Benintendi so you could argue that he could easily replace him, but otherwise, unless Nick Pratto moves to the outfield for Vinnie Pasquantino (I hate this idea), there isn’t much on the farm.

Yes, Nick Loftin could move. So could Peyton Wilson. And Tyler Gentry could come fast or maybe Brewer Hicklen or John Rave, but there just isn’t much out there in the outfield right now. That can change very fast, but as of right now, outfield is not a spot of strength for this team. If you feel like that won’t change over the next two or three years, the short extension might make a lot of sense.

Trade Him

If the Royals want to get value from Benintendi without extending him, their best bet would be trade him. The question with a trade is when they should pull the trigger if they’re going to go this direction. Waiting until the deadline gives teams just a couple months with a hitter who is solid but isn’t a difference maker. Looking back to the last deadline, there weren’t a lot of outfielders like Benintendi moved as they approach free agency. Kris Bryant is one, but he’s more valuable. Eddie Rosario and Jorge Soler brought back a salary dump and an organizational filler respectively. The return for Kyle Schwarber was Aldo Ramirez, who is a pretty solid pitcher, but in A-ball. Joc Pederson brought back an A-ball first baseman with a sub-.400 SLG.

The point is that moving someone like Benintendi at the deadline probably doesn’t make much sense unless the idea is its better to get anything at all. They could move him for the season starts to give a team a full year of him, which would make the most sense. There aren’t many examples of outfielders being traded with one year of control left, so it’s hard to say what he can bring back, but I could see a scenario where a team doesn’t want to wait for a free agent decision from any of the corner outfielders still out there and decides they want to give up a decent but not huge return to get Benintendi.

But there is an issue here. The Royals aren’t likely going to compete for a division title or anything in 2022, but they also don’t have any designs of not being competitive. While you can hope on the young bats coming up and being big parts of the offense, you can’t expect that and without Benintendi, they lose one of their few proven professional hitters. It honestly wouldn’t be the worst thing to have a corner spot to either play both Isbel and Olivares or to get all of their infielders on the field with Merrifield in the outfield. But I just don’t see it happening.

My thought is a mid-season trade could make sense if and when they’re out of the race, but an outfield without Benintendi likely isn’t a hole they’ll want to have on the team when the season starts.

Let Him Walk

And that brings us to the only other option. Depending on what happens with the CBA, this might actually make the most sense. It sort of sounds like the qualifying offer won’t penalize the team signing QO free agents, so the Royals could conceivably offer Benintendi the QO at the end of the season. Given their dearth of outfielders, even if it would be overpriced, there would be a worse result than getting him for a year at roughly $18 million.

But if he were to leave and they could recoup a pick, it might even end up better than getting something for him at the deadline or even before the season. That obviously depends on the new CBA, but if it does play out the way the way it seems like it will, this could work the best for him. The Royals would get a full season of him and give him a chance to build on the comfort he seemed to finally display late in the year. Kauffman Stadium is a good stadium for his defense, at least by the numbers. This feels like a win-win scenario for the Royals.

And letting him reach free agency doesn’t mean he’s gone. As I said, he can accept a qualifying offer or could simply re-sign with the team if outfielders don’t start to emerge in the system. They might not find the same value in that as an extension, but if they could get him for his age-28 to 31 season for the Garcia deal of four years and $53 million, it could be worse when that time comes.

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For my money, I’d be fine if they went the route of either the short extension or letting him walk, but I don’t think a longer-term deal or a trade makes a whole lot of sense. That said, if someone decides they want to give up far too much for him in a deal, the Royals should definitely jump at that, but I just don’t see it happening. Benintendi is a nice piece to have, but I wouldn’t break the bank or spend too much in years or money on the guy. And after all of this, I’ll tell you that I’m expecting the Royals to sign him to an extension, but anything more than four years will be something I won’t especially like.