Checking In On the Royals Rotation
A mixed bag and now a potentially big injury has things looking a bit dim.
Coming into the season, the Royals looked like they at least had some depth in their pitching staff. That doesn’t mean they’re great, but they had some very real options up and down the roster. The rotation, while not expected to be top notch, was expected to be able to keep the team in games and get to a bullpen that had enough options to hold down leads or keep games close enough for the offense to come back.
What started as a quintet of Brad Keller, Mike Minor, Brady Singer, Danny Duffy and Kris Bubic morphed to the first four and Jakob Junis and then the first four and Daniel Lynch and now with news of Duffy’s injury is in flux at the moment.
Let’s start with Duffy’s injury.
That’s…not good. It might not be what everyone thinks it could be, which I’ll just say rhymes with Rommy Don, but it’s also just another roadblock in Duffy’s career that shouldn’t have him complaining, but also seems like it could have been so much more at this point. He was in the midst of his best season to date with a 1.94 ERA in 41.2 innings with 48 strikeouts and just 12 walks. His last two starts haven’t been great or anything, but he’s been dominant this season.
I’ve mentioned before some concern about increased velocity and forearm/elbow issues, and I didn’t talk about that with Duffy this year, but he has thrown harder. Maybe I should have seen it coming and mentioned it. It wouldn’t have changed anything, but I’d have felt smarter. Over at Royals Review, Max Rieper noted that the median time to recover from this injury is six weeks, so it could be a bit. The Royals think the injury could keep him out about four weeks, but we’ll see
So anyway, the Royals have a move to make. That “tomorrow” in the tweet above is today, so we’ll find out soon. At this point, I’d assume it’s something like Kyle Zimmer coming off the IL with the starter for Friday coming then. It might be Junis, so they’ll still be working with five of the seven they’ve worked with all season or it might be a top prospect like Jackson Kowar. I’ll get to that in a bit, but let’s talk about the rotation.
What’s been good?
From a team standpoint, there isn’t a ton of good. Their ERA was fourth worst heading into play last night, though some ERA estimators like them a little bit more. But they limit home runs really well, allowing the seventh least per nine of any team in baseball and have the third lowest home run per fly ball percentage in all of baseball. Some of that might be explained by playing home games at Kauffman Stadium and the weather experienced in Kansas City to start the season, but they’ve performed all the same.
They’ve been middle of the pack in strikeout and walk rate, which isn’t exactly good, but it’s also not bad. They also have the worst strand rate of any rotation in baseball at 64.8 percent with league average at 72.8 percent. They’ll probably regress to the mean there, so we should see some improvement, but with the weather warming up, the home runs might start flying a little more and cancel that out, but we’ll see.
No, the positives are mostly individual. Duffy was obviously a huge positive before the injury. While he still is, who knows when or if he’ll be able to continue his season? Like I said, they’re optimistic but I’ve seen that turn. Even so, an ERA below two with the numbers he’s put up and generally the innings he’s provided has been something the rotation is really going to miss for however long he’s out.
I think Brady Singer has been a big positive as well. His ERA is a touch lower than last year, but his xERA has dropped from 3.85 to 3.38, so that’s an improvement. His strikeout rate and walk rate are essentially the same as last year. And you might be wondering why that’s a positive, but he was good last year. The hope is that Singer becomes an ace, and I think it’s certainly possible he does, but I think it’s more likely that he’s a number three type starter, and he’s already there.
As far as more positives, you sort of have to stretch, but Brad Keller’s last four starts look much better. There’s a question of how much better he’s really been given that he gave up five unearned runs against the Twins in one of those starts, but I’ve been impressed with his swings and misses. Yes, he has a 3.80 ERA in those four starts, but he’s gotten swinging strikes on 13 percent of pitches in that time. In his first four starts, that was just seven percent. So there’s a positive there.
And you can look at some of what Jakob Junis did when he first entered the rotation, though he had some good fortune. And you can point to Mike Minor’s last start, but that’s about it for the positives.
What’s been bad?
The issue with the rotation isn’t their performance. I mean, it is, but the real issue is the fact that they simply aren’t throwing enough innings, and with Duffy out, that’ll get even worse. Their 190.1 innings as a rotation in 40 games works out to less than five innings per start. Only the Blue Jays, Angels, Padres and Rays have averaged fewer innings per start. That’s no way to live. You can get by, sort of, if you have a super deep bullpen, but even then, it’s just so difficult to live with a bullpen having to handle half the game so often.
I’m not sure if this is really a bad thing or not, but the Royals rotation has the third lowest ground ball rate among all staffs at 39.4 percent. Maybe with the new ball that doesn’t travel quite as far, that’s a good strategy. And maybe with a less than stellar infield defense, it’s not a bad idea. But still, there are still plenty of home runs being hit and with very few exceptions, those don’t come on balls that hit the ground.
And the last negative point as a team is they collectively allow way too many base runners. While they’re middle of the pack in walk rate, they’ve allowed more than a hit per inning, which leads to a team WHIP for starters of 1.40, fourth worst in baseball.
And on the individual side, Mike Minor hasn’t been anything close to what the Royals envisioned when they gave him a two-year deal this winter. I don’t think they were expecting his 2019 season, but I do think they were expecting way more innings than he’s provided. Saturday against the White Sox was the first time he’s gone at least seven innings in a start. Maybe most disappointing for him is that his fastball has been hit pretty hard with as many extra base hits allowed off it this year as all of last season.
Keller has been better of late, but the way he started the season put the Royals in a massive hole. He was sporting a 12.00 ERA through four starts, and that included a really good outing against the Angels. I was convinced he was hurt, and I’m honestly still not convinced he wasn’t/isn’t, but him pitching better has helped quite a bit to make me stop asking the question.
And then there’s Lynch’s three starts that he made. I don’t think I need to go back over those, but the Royals really whiffed on their evaluation that he was ready for the big stage.
How can they improve?
This one is pretty easy. The biggest weakness is the lack of innings, so they need to go deeper into games. There are some arguments that they should face a lineup a third time as infrequently as possible, and that works in a 60-game season, but over 162, we’re already seeing what problems a depleted bullpen brings. They simply need more innings. And maybe the early part of the season has been by design as Matheny seems to be pushing his starters a bit more lately.
I feel like a broken record, but I want to see them work up with their fastball far more. Look at what the starters we’ve seen have done on their fastballs up this season.
Lynch obviously struggled, but that’s part of why he’s not with the team anymore. Just look at the success they’ve had in these situations. I included Bubic as well since he’ll be getting the start tonight and has pitched starter innings in his last two relief outings. I’m a big believer in climbing the ladder, so I’d like to see more of that from this rotation moving forward.
I think that would help a lot of the issues they have with the contact they allow. Duffy and Singer are the only two starters who allow a below average number of barrels. You might expect that Keller will eventually get his numbers down as he’s notoriously been a guy who elicits weak contact, but for now, he isn’t and they need to figure something out to stop opponents from hitting the ball so hard.
That also seems like it’ll help to add to the chase rate Royals starters have. League average chase rate is 28.4 percent, and far too much of the starting staff is down below that rate. Surprisingly, Singer with his excellent slider the worst among the team’s starters at 25.1 percent. They simply have to find a way to get more swings and misses and limit long counts, which also helps the first point of needing more innings. It all goes hand in hand.
Where do they go from here?
The injury to Duffy is what led me to looking at the rotation, which is pretty ugly without him, for the season. Obviously Bubic is getting the start that should have been Duffy’s tonight, but they’ll need a fifth starter still eventually. With all the off days, they can pitch Minor on Friday and Singer on Saturday against Detroit, but someone will have to step in on Sunday. And they could opt to give everyone an extra day and start someone else on Friday. Edit: I did some bad math. Theoretically with the off day Thursday and then again Monday, they don’t need to add a starter until the 29th, but I bet they do before then. Here are their options:
Jakob Junis - He was solid with results in his first four starts of the year before getting moved to the bullpen, but was getting hit hard and then started giving up runs from the bullpen and in his spot start in the second game of the double header on Friday.
Ervin Santana - He has had one start this season, as part of another double header. And he was okay. But I’m not sure you can count on him to give more than three or four innings, which kind of hurts the cause of throwing more innings.
Jackson Kowar - This will be a popular choice. He’s been really good in three starts in Omaha this year with 22 strikeouts in 15.2 innings and six walks. He has a 1.15 ERA. I think Kowar with his big fastball and outstanding changeup could get big league hitters out, but I question if he can do it for six innings. He hasn’t even done that in Omaha yet. I personally would let him work his curve out a little longer, but I have a hunch he’s the guy if this Duffy injury is longer-term. He would require a 40-man move, but there are options.
Carlos Hernandez - This would not be a popular choice and I don’t think he has much of a chance, but he has started in the big leagues, so maybe. He has 18 strikeouts and four walks in 14 innings over three starts in AAA, so he’s got that going for him.
Ronald Bolaños - He was then 27th man in the double header on Friday and also has big league experience. He’s only made one start in AAA since he was skipped so he could come to the big leagues. I think he’s a dark horse, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Maybe I’m missing someone, but those seem to be the best bets there. My choice is probably to give Junis another opportunity to seize a starting spot, but I have to admit I’m intrigued by the idea of getting Kowar up. It’s hard to say if they’re a little gun shy because of the Lynch issues, but Kowar can be electric.
What I do know for certain is that if the Royals have plans to get back to above .500 and back into playoff contention, they’re going to need more from their rotation, and those efforts took a hit yesterday with Duffy heading to the IL.