Crown Jewels: A Stat That May Matter, The DH Situation and an ItC Update

The halfway point of spring training is here and the Royals picture is clearing up some.

Spring training is way too long. But somehow, it’s also so short. It feels like a couple of days ago that we were talking about pitchers and catchers reporting and now we’re less than three weeks away from Opening Day. That’s just crazy to think that there are only two more Fridays before we’re talking about an actual baseball game that counts (weather permitting). As usual, the Royals are doing their thing in the Cactus League. I’m not going to tell you that this time is different, but it does sort of feel different.

Maybe it’s that they spent the winter saying they were going to be better and then signing better players and then they get to spring training and they actually are better. Or maybe I’m just falling prey to the same old things in the past. I know that some guys are just better served in Arizona. I know that some guys aren’t. And sometimes there isn’t any rhyme or reason to it. There’s probably something to the idea that a good team is there to get work in while a bad team is a bunch of guys trying to make the team.

Whatever it is, the Royals seem to handle spring training every year. It doesn’t matter who the manager is, who the players are or who their opponents are. One of these years, their big spring is going to translate. Could it be this year? Maybe!

Interesting Numbers

Stat scouting in spring training is generally something you don’t want to do. For all the reasons I’ve mentioned a million times, these numbers are wholly unreliable. I change my mind on the most important reasons so often, but right now, I’m sort of sitting on the idea that it’s the sample size. As an example, Michael Massey has a .941 OPS through 17 plate appearances. That’s after going 2 for 3 on Wednesday. He was at, I believe .571 through 14 plate appearances coming into the game. People were wondering if he was losing his job. Now he’s toward the top of the list on the team.

But there are some stats that make sense to pay attention to, and they largely sit with strikeouts and walks. Here are some Royals hitters doing a great job with both strikeouts and walks:

• Nick Loftin: 27.8% BB, 11.1% K, 18 PA

• MJ Melendez: 16.7% BB, 16.7% K, 18 PA

• Vinnie Pasquantino: 15.8% BB, 0.0% K, 19 PA

Here are those with good walk rates but not elite strikeout rates:

• Adam Frazier: 20.0% BB, 15 PA

• Maikel Garcia: 13.3% BB, 15 PA

• Garrett Hampson: 10.5% BB, 19 PA

• Drew Waters: 14.3% BB, 14 PA

And here are those with good strikeout rates but not elite walk rates:

• Salvador Perez: 16.7% K, 18 PA

• Bobby Witt, Jr.: 5.3% K, 19 PA

• Kyle Isbel: 16.7% K, 18 PA

• Michael Massey: 5.9% K, 17 PA

• Dairon Blanco: 16.7% K, 12 PA

Let’s take a look at the pitching side. Pay no attention to Jake Brentz and his 45.8 percent walk rate against 24 batters.

Good strikeout and walk percentages with at least 10 batters faced:

• Alec Marsh: 38.4% K, 7.7% BB

• Walter Pennington: 57.1% K, 0.0% BB

• Cole Ragans: 42.1% K, 5.3% BB

• Sam Long: 53.8% K, 7.7% BB

• James McArthur: 31.6% K, 5.3% BB

• Luis Cessa: 30.8% K, 0.0% BB

• Brady Singer: 33.3% K, 0.0% BB

Good strikeout percentage with at least 10 batters faced:

• Will Klein: 42.9% K

• Matt Sauer: 30.0% K

Good walk percentage with at least 10 batters faced:

• Angel Zerpa: 0.0% BB

Everything is far too small of a sample, without a doubt, but strikeouts and walks are generally a key indicator. In this small of a sample, it can change very quickly so we don’t really have any answers. But the ones listed above are off to a great start and one that we’ll keep an eye on over the last few weeks of spring training, but walking a lot and not striking out is pretty great for a hitter. And striking out a bunch of hitters and walking very few is pretty great too. The Royals have a lot of guys in these categories.

The DH Situation

Most teams these days are looking for some flexibility from their designated hitter spot. Sure, if you’ve got Shohei Ohtani, you trade the flexibility for that, but look at how tough a time JD Martinez is having looking for a job. The Royals are no different. They’ve said publicly that while Nelson Velazquez appears to have started spring as the de facto designated hitter, he’s going to get plenty of time in the outfield. I’m sure we’ll see Hunter Renfroe off his legs and Melendez off his and Salvy and Vinnie and even Witt here and there.

So the situation is already fluid, but I’ve heard some questions from people who aren’t there and some talk from people who are that there might be a bit of a situation brewing in Surprise. Nick Pratto is, well, hitting. Coming into today, he’s hitting .353/.389/.529, which actually has some red flags in it, but more importantly, he’s doing what the Royals have asked of him. He’s being more aggressive, which has led to a few of his knocks so far in camp. Now, this is 18 plate appearances. He had a .975 OPS in games that actually matter last year through 65 plate appearances. So I’m not saying I’m fooled, but I’m saying the Royals are pleased.

Velazquez, on the other hand, has just two singles in plate appearances. He’s hitting .111/.158/.111. Like the Massey example above, if he goes 5 for 7 with two doubles and a home run in his next two games, he’s hitting .280/.307/.480 and he’s probably back in front. So yeah, I recognize the sample is an issue here along with all of the other things. But there is at least a battle brewing here that I didn’t expect to see this spring. With Pratto, the .176 ISO in the Arizona air simply isn’t enough, but I appreciate that he is working to not let hittable pitches go by in the search for the most perfect pitch he’s ever seen.

I still believe he just has too much swing and miss to succeed long-term, but if he can attack those pitches earlier in the count as he has so far this spring, he can be more dangerous. And with options, maybe he ends up earning that roster spot. If he does, I’d expect we see Pasquantino DH against most righties and play first against lefties while we see some movement at DH against lefties where the Royals can get Fermin behind the plate and Salvy at DH. Against really tough lefties, maybe Pratto and Pasquantino both sit. There are certainly some options here, and not just in the sense of guys who can be sent down. I’ll have my next roster projection early next week, but just know that Pratto wasn’t even a thought for the first few and now he’s at least in my head.

A Newsletter Change

I started Inside the Crown ahead of the 2021 season on the day the Royals acquired Andrew Benintendi to take over as their left fielder. Since then, exactly 100 different players have appeared in a game for them. I’ve probably mentioned each of them at some point. Since starting this newsletter, the Royals have lost 291 games. I feel like I’ve been in attendance for most of them, which isn’t what you want. One thing I’ve mentioned for awhile and thought about off and on for a long time is if and when I should charge for the content on the website. I’ve decided that time is now. Well, not right now, but after the first weekend of the season, I’m going to do what so many others have done and stop giving away content.

Why now after all this time? As you know, I’ve got a small child and while I love this newsletter and writing about the Royals, it’s also something that takes time and energy away from my young family. I sincerely hope you’ll all stick around. I know that’s not going to be the case for any number of reasons. Some people simply can’t swing it. Some people don’t want to swing it. And that’s okay! I totally get it and I hope that you’ll reconsider or your situation will change at some point. I am going to continue to write one free newsletter every week. Mostly, that’ll likely be the Weekend in Review. But whatever I end up deciding, the newsletter that comes out on April 2 will require you to pay to read. They won’t all require a paid subscription, but most will.

Again, I hope you’ll come along for the ride. I really do. I understand there will be many who won’t, but I’ve still got 25% off through the end of the first weekend of the season and that’s only $2.25 per month if you pay it all at once. Monthly, it’s $5. I’m not going to give you a sales pitch of things you buy that you don’t need for that cost because you spend your money how you want, but I think it’s a pretty darn good deal. And if you’re one of those that says you’ll never ever pay for this, well, you’ve got another few weeks before the content isn’t totally free, so you can enjoy until then. I can’t thank everyone enough for coming along for this ride with me. Here’s to it continuing, just with me being compensated a bit for it!