Crown Jewels: A New Royals Outfielder, Relief Help and A New Outfield Target

The Winter Meetings are over and the Royals haven't made their move. Yet.

The Winter Meetings were an absolute dud this year in terms of signings. Of course, maybe they’re a dud every year and I just remember 15 to 20 years ago (or maybe more) when there were signings left and right. I’ve told this story before, but I remember watching MLB Network the year Albert Pujols signed with the Angels and you could see something was happening behind the studio desk as the crowd started almost sprinting off in one direction. I obviously had no idea what it was at the time, but then the news broke of Pujols like 10-15 minutes later and it was pretty clear that’s what it was. But those times have changed.

The meetings are still obviously extremely important and valuable and most people in the industry believe that moves are going to be fast and furious between now and Christmas, but the days of news every minute of every day are probably over. That’s okay, I guess. Rumors are still fun to discuss. But now is the time the Royals need to get down to business. They made one move yesterday, which I’ll get to shortly. Before that, though, I’ll remind everyone of the 2023/2024 offseason with a timeline to show the order things typically get done in today’s world.

• December 3-6: Winter Meetings

• December 11: Royals sign Will Smith

• December 14: Royals sign Seth Lugo

• December 15: Royals sign Chris Stratton

• December 18: Royals sign Michael Wacha

• December 19: Royals sign Hunter Renfroe

Not all of those names were a success, but the point here is the Royals went to the Winter Meetings, did nothing other than trade Dylan Coleman and then it was almost a full week before they made a “major” signing to bring in Will Smith (who had just had a solid-ish season with the Rangers). Then it was three more days before they brought in Lugo and the onslaught of moves came. I’m not saying it’ll be exactly like that, but it sounds like the industry is busy.

Make sure you check out this week’s podcast. We touched on the meetings, the Royals not signing Mike Yastrzemski, the draft lottery and a bunch more.

And here are this week’s newsletters:

Royals in the Rumors: Winter Meetings Edition

The Lottery Finally Giveth

Royals Pick a Lane

The Royals finally signed an outfielder, giving Lane Thomas a one-year deal worth $5.25 million that can climb to $6.25 million with incentives. First off, I’m going to say it’s a perfectly reasonable amount of money and a perfectly reasonable deal. There was a surprising amount of backlash on social media for a fourth outfielder/the short side of a platoon, but I’m guessing it’s because it was the first move and not the second one. I’ll tap the sign from above this and note that it’s December 12. If they get to March 27 and Thomas is the best outfielder they’ve acquired, I’ll be plenty frustrated too, but I would bet a large sum of money that he won’t be.

In Thomas, the Royals are getting a player who needs to bounce back from a pretty brutal year. He came into 2025 having hit a monster grand slam off Tarik Skubal in the 2024 playoffs, but was hit by a pitch on his wrist on April 8. He sat for a few days, then tried to play through it, and then finally hit the IL on April 22. He came back in late May and just wasn’t right. He went back on the IL with plantar fasciitis on May 30, was activated on June 9, but then his season ended on July 4 and he was back on the IL for the plantar fasciitis for which he ultimately had surgery. So it was a lost year.

The Royals are banking first on his ability to hit lefties. He’s a career .292/.359/.500 hitter against them. He didn’t hit them last year, but also only had 47 plate appearances against them. He hit .302/.386/.492 last season. That’s what they’re paying him to do. He can spell Jac Caglianone or Kyle Isbel against lefties. A huge bonus would be if he could get back to what he did in 2023 when he was good enough against righties that he was able to be more than a platoon bat. He hit .268/.315/.468 that year for a 109 wRC+. If he can’t reach that, it’s fine because he’s purely a fourth outfielder/platoon partner. But if he can, it becomes a fantastic signing for what likely reaches his incentives.

At the plate, he’s had a bit of an odd career when it comes to the zone. He came up with the Cardinals in 2019 and had elite chase rates, though in limited plate appearances. But that continued after he was acquired by Washington in 2019. Then the chase rates jumped from 18.4 percent in 2021 to 26.8 percent in 2022 and then 28.1 percent in 2023. It should be noted those are still better than average. But then he was back to 23.3 percent in 2024 and 23.8 percent in limited time last year. So he understands the zone. The issue for him last year is he just couldn’t make contact like he had in the past. I’d bet it had to do with the plantar fasciitis. If you can’t plant your foot without pain, you’re going to have issues swinging.

The Statcast numbers were all ugly for him last season, but, again, a heel issue is going to make it tough. He didn’t post elite numbers in 2024 either, but they were fine, which again is enough for this deal. He also can really run. His sprint speed in 2024 was 29.3 ft/s, which was in the 93rd percentile. It was the same last year, but in the 94th percentile. Only Bobby Witt Jr. was faster for the Royals last year. He’s generally rated just fine on the bases and stole 32 bases as recently as 2024. He hasn’t rated especially well in the outfield, which is a little curious. A lot of that is that he doesn’t get a great jump on the ball. I wonder how much that can be helped by Rusty Kuntz and Damon Hollins, who do a really nice job of helping outfielders with that.

I do have some worries about the plantar fasciitis. It’s been trouble for guys in careers, but there are stories of guys coming back and stories of them not being the same. As long as he can still run, which he showed he could last year, and he can still hit lefties, which he didn’t show last year, he’ll do exactly what the Royals are asking of him. Anything else is gravy. This is a move, not THE move. Teams need many of these types of moves as well, and I urge people to take a step back and understand what the purpose of acquiring Thomas was and view him in that lens and not as a major answer in the outfield. He’s essentially replacing Nick Loftin or Tyler Tolbert on the roster, but he’s shown an ability in the past to be more than that too.

Relievers Wanted

One of the interesting snippets to come out of the meeting is that the Royals are rightfully wanting to add to their bullpen. They have Carlos Estevez, who led the league in saves. They have Lucas Erceg, who was a force down the stretch in 2024 and then had a solid, though unspectacular, 2025. But outside of that, there really aren’t any sure things in that bullpen. John Schreiber is a solid guy to have, but he can’t be your third-best reliever. Angel Zerpa drives me absolutely crazy, but he can be dominant at times. He also can’t be one of your key guys. I could see Jonathan Bowlan turning into a dominant reliever, but that’s an unknown. I could see Luinder Avila doing the same, but again, unknown.

And that’s not even mentioning the point I’ve been bringing up all year. They just didn’t strike out enough hitters. Alex Lange will help that if he’s healthy. He may walk the world, but he’s going to get his strikeouts. They just need more guys who can miss bats. I’d love to see them just throw up double birds to the budget and signed someone like Robert Suarez. He just got three years and $45 million from the Braves, which isn’t a terrible number, but it’s a lot for a team that already has an $11 million closer.

But if you just sort free agent relievers by strikeout rate, you’ll see that many of the best are still out there (partially because so many in general are still out there). Seranthony Dominguez, Kirby Yates, Hunter Harvey (I still would do it), Drew Pomeranz, Justin Wilson, Luke Weaver, Brad Keller, Shawn Armstrong, Caleb Thielbar, Andrew Chafin, Jordan Romano and Luis Garcia all struck out at least a quarter of the batters they faced. There are some, like Romano, who I wouldn’t touch, but there are strikeouts to be found on the free agent market, and they can probably be had for a relative bargain.

Among pitchers with at least 10 innings thrown in the Royals bullpen, only three pitchers struck out at least 25 percent of hitters. Those three were Avila, Bowlan and Harvey. The Royals have specifically mentioned looking for a lefty. Those options are a bit more difficult to find. On the above list, Pomeranz, Wilson, Theilbar and Chafin are lefties. All have their flaws, but that’s probably true of most free agents who aren’t elite. But on the trade market, I could see Garrett Cleavinger, Matt Strahm and maybe someone like Justin Wrobleski available. They all had the strikeout rates I’m looking for there.

I do think this is more of an area of need than the Royals are letting on, but I also fully recognize that the starting pitching depth could play a role in helping the bullpen as well. They’re talking up Avila as a starter for now, but he can obviously slot in there, and I think he has the stuff to eventually close games. Bowlan, again, looked like he could be an answer. It’s one of those spots that good organizations can usually find guys, but it’s also nice to go into a season knowing what you have and not having to sort things out for weeks to months.

Teoscar Hernandez? In This Economy?

You can find this rumor at this link to the Athletic. It’s in the middle and says that the Dodgers are continuing to “kick the tires” on trading Hernandez and that the Royals have interest. I’ll fully admit that this section is probably less about Hernandez and more about the type of player the Royals are gunning for in their outfield. In the article linked, it says “The Kansas City Royals have coveted an offense-first outfielder.”

I do believe that they are willing to sacrifice defense for offense, to some level. The bats were just so bad in the corners last year that they have to. And maybe I’m just getting into a game of semantics, but I would be a little surprised if they actually “covet” an offense-first outfielder as much as they understand that it’s going to be difficult to get one who can hit the way they need and defend the way they’d like. It’s why I targeted Seiya Suzuki in one of my JJ for a Day newsletters. But Hernandez, in particular, feels like such a big departure from their typical preference that I just don’t know that I see it.

He’s just bad defensively. He played a lot of left in 2024 and was bad. He played only right in 2025 and actually didn’t rate terribly defensively by DRS with 1. But he was -9 OAA. He runs better than you probably realize with a sprint speed in the 69th percentile in 2025. But we’ve all watched him play. I don’t really care what DRS says. He did deal with some injuries, so maybe they were the problem, but there were a lot of muscle injuries. Those things don’t get better as guys get older.

Then you add in that he doesn’t really get on base and it’s an even more curious fit given what they’ve said. I suppose it’s possible that their new hitting coaches have given the kind of recommendation that would lead the front office to believe some things can be fixed, but this isn’t a young post-hype prospect. Hernandez has 4,407 plate appearances in his career with a 6.9 percent walk rate and 29 percent strikeout rate. He isn’t an egregious chaser or anything, but he struggles with contact. That’s also not something that typically gets better with age.

Look, the power is real and he probably makes the 2026 Royals better. His contract is a little weird. He’s actually only owed $12 million in 2026 and then $14.5 million in 2027, but there is a $6.5 million buyout on the 2028 option that vests if he misses 75 days at some point. So it’s $33 million owed for two years in the moment, but he also has $16 million deferred, which the Royals would have to take on unless otherwise negotiated. I just come back to the point that a .247/.284/.454 hitter just doesn’t fit. And others like him don’t really fit.

It’s why I don’t like the Adolis Garcia fit, though at least that would be a lot less money and probably just for one year. It’s why I don’t like the Jo Adell fit. These are players who can, yes, make the Royals a better team in 2026, but it just feels like a huge risk. I suppose it’s not a bigger risk than going into next season with Michael Massey playing left field every day, but that isn’t going to happen. They’re going to go get someone. I would just prefer it’s not the skillset that Hernandez possesses because I think that could be a big problem for the Royals, even if it is an improvement over what they had.