Crown Jewels: Royals Next Steps, Minor League Deals and Some Way Too Early Draft Thoughts

The rumor mill won't be churning quite as fast for the Royals, but there's still plenty left to happen this winter.

The week of the Winter Meetings is usually so much fun. This one wasn’t quite that, unfortunately, with little action throughout. But it did set up what I think is a nice preview of the rest of the winter. The rumor is that Shohei Ohtani is going to sign soon. So number one is off the board. But Cody Bellinger, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman, Josh Hader, Shoto Imanaga, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and many others are still on the board. Will the dam break once Ohtani inks his deal, hopefully soon? I think that’ll likely clear a lot of the issues.

Free agency, in general, can be so fascinating. I think about a guy like Matt Chapman. The last time he hit above .250 was 2018. The last time he slugged over .500 in a full season was 2019. The last time he had an OBP above .330 was 2019. Yes, he has a reputation as an excellent defender, but he’s kind of alternated between above average and excellent over the last few seasons and he’s entering his age-31 year. If I told you a .226/.322/.420 hitter with always solid but inconsistent defensive numbers was hitting free agency, I think your first reaction would be that he’s good for like two or three years at $9 million to $12 million per year. And yet, there’s talk of nine figures for him. Because it only takes one team.

It’s why I’ve actually been a little surprised at the dollars given out so far in that I haven’t been surprised by a single AAV among the handful of free agents who have signed. I think I wrote this earlier this week, so apologies for the repeat, but guys like Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Kenta Maeda and Wade Miley have all signed for sort of what guys like them have signed for over the last couple of years. Eduardo Rodriguez got a bit more than I expected, I guess, but I bumped him down some because I had heard some teams were concerned about his personal issues that he had and maybe the Diamondbacks simply weren’t. Either way, I think it bodes well for the Royals in their pursuits that salaries aren’t out of control.

What Are Their Next Steps?

While a couple of targets for KC are off the board, the good news is that most everyone they could possibly want is still available. That’ll certainly change, but what they want is all in front of them. The bad news is that nothing has changed in what their next steps are. JJ Picollo and Matt Quatraro both have been pretty open and honest about what they need to do. They keep saying that they want someone to put at the top of the top of the rotation with Cole Ragans, which is a refreshing change of pćce from guys like Jordan Lyles.

But who is left for that who they have a reasonable shot to get? I’ll repeat what I wrote this week. I think Marcus Stroman is a fantastic fit for that. They won’t have to go too many years since he’ll be in his age-34 season, just like Sonny Gray. He’s not as good as Gray, so unless there’s some bizarre bidding war, you know where his salary should top out. And the Royals should be pretty attractive to him, I’d think. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher and the Royals have a really good infield defense. I don’t know, seems pretty perfect to me.

But there aren’t just free agents. The Marlins seem to be open for business on some of their young starting pitchers and they want a shortstop. I know people love Maikel Garcia and I’m kind of the low man on him around these parts, but he’s miscast as a third baseman. This is a much more held opinion, but his value to the Royals could be as another team’s shortstop and what he can bring back in a deal. I honestly don’t know what a fair trade involving him with the Marlins is, but I’d be eyeing Braxton Garrett pretty hard.

That 5.2 percent walk rate in 247.2 innings the last two seasons is very appealing. I’d have Jesus Luzardo, but I don’t think that’s realistic for Garcia or anyone else the Royals have available. But I’m also a little bit intrigued in the idea of Sandy Alcantara if the Marlins do what they do and don’t want to pay a guy. He’s out for 2024, like Kyle Wright, but is owed $36.6 million over the next two years including a $2 million buyout on a $21 million option in 2027. It would be tough to see Garcia go for someone who won’t even pitch for another year, but to see a 2025 rotation built would be interesting at least.

I actually do think the trade market is what opens up over the next few weeks. I may be way off here, but it sort of feels like if a free agent doesn’t sign by the winter meetings, they hold off for a bit to re-engage. Now, that’s an opportunity for the Royals to swoop in, but I would bet that we’ll get quite a few trade rumors. I had pegged the Yankees as a good MJ Melendez landing spot, but that’s not the case anymore with their Juan Soto trade. And yes, I think it’s funny that there’s even a small comparison there. Still, the Giants, Marlins, Angels, Reds and maybe even the Blue Jays could be an interesting fit for him and they all have intriguing starting pitching that could be part of a return.

Minor Deals Could Pay Off

Over the last few days, the Royals have agreed to minor league deals with Mike Brosseau, Sam Long, Tyler Duffey and Dan Altavilla. Earlier in the winter, they signed Luis Cessa to a minor league deal as well. I love a good minor league deal, and I’m intrigued by the idea of all five of these players. I’ll start with Brosseau who had a nice brief start to his career with the Rays (and Quatraro) and then had a solid year in 2022 with the Brewers before he struggled in 2023. I like that he works a count. I like that he generally hits the ball hard. And I like that he hits lefties. He was obviously available on a minor league deal, so he’s not without his warts, but that’s a nice depth player.

The pitchers are a little easier to understand because, as the saying goes, when you think you have enough pitching, get more pitching. As Jack Johnson and others have noted, the Royals are starting to emerge as having a type. They like pitchers with high-spin curves. I appreciate that. They feel like they can teach a slider and some other things, but the curve is something they like their pitchers to come equipped with. And they’ve done a nice job of identifying under-the-radar guys over the last few months with that mantra.

Long is a lefty with a high-spin curve that was super effective for the A’s in 2023, but his fastball and slider really weren’t. He throws hard enough, so there’s some growth potential there. Duffey made it back to the mound for two innings in 2023, but we remember teh run he had with the Twins. From 2019 through 2021, he threw 144 innings in relief with 174 strikeouts, 48 walks and 105 hits allowed. Can he be that again? I’d guess no, but when he was right, he was getting outs with his fastball and his breaking ball and that’s a trait that you like to see. Altavilla hasn’t pitched in awhile, but he was rumored to be throwing 98 in the Dominican, so that’s interesting in itself. Cessa wasn’t very good in 2023, but he’s a guy who can probably provide some innings as depth.

All in all, these are moves every team should make, but especially the Royals. Particularly with the pitchers, these are the moves that can actually help develop a farm system. They’re essentially no risk, but if any of these guys show out in the first three months of a season, they can bring back some legitimate system depth. That’s one area the Royals actually aren’t lacking, but it never hurts to have more. It’s hard to predict minor league deals, so I’m not going to try, but you can bet that whoever they go after will likely throw strikes and probably has a good curve.

Early Draft Thoughts

The Royals will pick sixth in the first round and second in all subsequent rounds in the 2024 draft. Things will change so much from today to that point that it’s almost silly to discuss this, but we like silly around these parts. It’s a real bummer that guys like JJ Weatherholt and Travis Bazzana seem destined to be selected before the Royals turn, but they will still pick whether or not their first, second or even third choices are there. And there are a few names right now I’m intrigued by.

Jim Callis wrote an early mock this week and had Charlie Condon from Georgia at six to the Royals. He was one of the first names I thought of after the anger of the lottery was over. Condon can flat out hit. I don’t think he’s an outfielder even though he’s listed as a 1B/OF, but the bat both plays and probably plays quickly. There’s some video of him at that link and the swing is really pretty. He and Vinnie Pasquantino as middle of the order monsters could be fun. Given the fluctuation of spots, he could be a riser if he has another big season, though, so he may not be there. Or he could fall to like 23 if he’s more good than great because he’s a first baseman.

Some other names just to keep an eye on are Jac Caglianone, who is a dual threat as a pitcher and a first baseman. The power is absolutely bonkers. He could easily be the top pick depending on his season. Brody Brecht from Iowa is interesting. He has great stuff, but hasn’t had the results just yet. But if he goes out and dominates like the stuff says he should, he could jump pretty high. Vance Honeycutt has every tool you want, but didn’t hit enough last season. He’d be sort of risky, but the sort of risk that hits big when it hits.

Some other names to keep an eye on through the 2024 spring to see where they land in the pecking order are Mike Sirota out of Northeastern, Tommy White from LSU, Konnor Griffin from Jackson Prep in Mississippi and Cam Smith from Florida State. Oh yeah, and like 85 other names who could potentially have a big enough spring to rise up the ranks and get discussed. The lack of draft pool is a huge bummer in the drop from two to six in the lottery and the fact that they’ll be so dependent on other teams picks stinks too, but there are going to be some good players at six at least.