Crown Jewels: Q's First Impression, World Series Thoughts and More

As seen on the pages of Pine Tar Press, Baseball Prospectus Kansas City and Royals Review, my notes have a new home.

I started writing a notes column on Fridays back in the days of Pine Tar Press because I had a lot of things to say, but not enough to write a whole article. People liked it. I liked it. Small, digestible thoughts about a few topics on a Friday were pretty perfect, so I just kept writing them. That was back in 2011 and here we are 11 years later and these have now appeared on four sites, including a short-lived Medium account I ran for a bit while I was looking for a new home to write. Anyway, if you’ve followed me before, you’ve read them. If you haven’t, this is where they’ll live from now on. For the offseason, it’ll almost always be on Fridays. Once the season starts, who knows? I generally write about the games here and there are often games on Thursdays to write about on Friday, but I suppose that could change.

This week is an interesting week because it’s the transition from baseball to the offseason. That’s been the case for many teams for a few weeks now but with the World Series almost over, we have some fun times up ahead. The general manager meetings are close and free agency starts on November 6. Teams have exclusive rights to negotiate with their free agents until November 10. At that time, any team can sign any free agent they want. Trades can also pick back up on November 6. The odds that one goes down then is pretty slim, but you never know. Then there’s the Rule 5 protection deadline, the tender deadline, the winter meetings and then spring training starts in three and a half months or so. I doubt we’ll see the flurry we saw last winter with all those signings right before the lockout, but it’s at least an interesting winter now for the Royals.

Quatraro’s Presser

This one is probably going to be a little longer most of these editions because I thought Matt Quatraro said a lot in his opening press conference that I want to touch on. I was impressed. He didn’t blow me away with tired cliches or anything, but he basically talked about everything I’ve personally wanted in a manager for my favorite team for a long time. I think back to Mike Matheny’s opening presser where he talked about embracing the analytics and all that and that was great, but I think what we heard yesterday from Quatraro was more encouraging than any of that.

My biggest takeaway is that there is no decision that is made “just because.” That doesn’t mean the decision is going to be the right one, but there is thought into literally everything Quatraro does. I don’t say this to say that Matheny or Ned Yost or any other manager just makes a decision for no good reason, but Quatraro is believed to be one of the most prepared coaches in baseball and with that, you can assume that the processes he uses are well thought out. He used the term “process-oriented” a lot during this press conference and while we’re probably a little “process” weary, this feels like a much better use of that term. But I also appreciated something he said toward the end.

He spoke of how these are human beings playing the game. I’ve written a few times that I learned that when I was able to get into the clubhouse during the championship seasons. It changed the way I thought about players. We don’t know what’s going on in their lives. If someone goes 0 for 4 and was late on every fastball, maybe he was up late the night before with a family crisis. I know he’s paid to do his job regardless of what’s going on in his life, but we’ve all had bad days at work because of something happening outside the office. I think it’s great that someone who is so analytically inclined is also so acutely aware that he’s dealing with people.

On Depth

One of the first things Quatraro discussed was depth and how the best teams have it. He said that he wants to play the whole roster because that’s something that helps the clubhouse out quite a bit. I don’t think that’ll be a huge change from what we saw toward the end of the season, though I’m not sure if Matheny left the spreadsheet password protected or not. Either way, I think we’ll see more days off as a way to both keep people fresh and to keep the whole roster engaged. This is something I think he’s had to deal with quite a bit in Tampa, partially because they’ve had some injury issues, but it’s about using the roster to get the most out of their capabilities.

A question was asked, I believe by Todd Leabo, about being more transactional and Quatraro answered it in terms of roster moves, which I thought was an interesting angle. He said that they’re not making moves just to make these moves. An organization has to have the people in place to actually call up when they do need a fresh arm or three. Or when they need someone who can play a capable third base for a week because of an injury or whatever the situation may be. It’s not about making a move to say you’ve made a move but rather to get the best possible team on the field every single day. I appreciate that.

The 51/49 Wins

This is what had me smiling throughout the presser. I don’t remember what led to this, but Quatraro mentioned that the best teams win on the margins. Those decisions are what can turn a good season into a great season or a mediocre one. They can turn a mediocre season into a good season or bad. And they can turn a bad season into a mediocre one or a terrible one. But this is something that teams without the luxury of a massive payroll absolutely have to win to be able to compete consistently. Things aren’t always going to be perfect, but you can gain small edges that I just don’t feel the Royals had been gaining for a long time.

Some of these things are lineup choices. Some are who to pitch in certain situations. Some are when to pull a starter from the game. Some are as simple as defensive positioning. If you can think back to the 2014/2015 Royals, what stood out about that team? It certainly wasn’t star power. Yes, Lorenzo Cain had a great year in 2015 and they had a lot of talent, but they won games because they won on the margins. They picked up a tip on when David Price was throwing a changeup or where Jose Bautista would throw or that they could run wild on Jon Lester or any number of examples throughout the playoffs that we probably didn’t even notice during the season. They need to get back to winning those.

Development

I don’t know how many times I’ve said this, but development doesn’t end when a player gets to the big league. The next time we see a fully finished product debuting will be the first time. Yes, players succeed immediately, but it doesn’t mean they’re developed and that’s been the biggest problem with the Royals pitching, I think. It’s why I don’t necessarily think what they’re doing in the minors is the biggest issue. They develop pitchers who earn their way to the big leagues and then they get their brains beaten in because the Royals haven’t had anyone in place to help continue their development. Quatraro addressed that and basically said what I’ve been saying all along.

I don’t say that to say that I beat the new Royals manager to a thought, but to say that I’m so glad he has that understanding. And working in two situations where young players have excelled for quite some time tells me he at least has an understanding of how that works. He was asked about his pitching coach and mentioned that they’ve discussed some names, but he did say that the people they’re looking at fit all the boxes Picollo listed when looking for a new manager. They’re looking for tremendous communicators, collaborators and forward thinkers. Guys, I’m sold. He understands that you win with pitching and he even talked about some things he has plans for with the young pitching staff that he believes has a ton of talent. He mentioned some approach and pitch usage changes. I’ll hold off to see who the pitching instruction includes, but I fully believe in this group to find someone good.

Using Data

The biggest thing I liked about Quatraro is that he had a great line that I’ve certainly heard before in some iteration but it’s still true. He said that he believes data doesn’t make the decisions, but it certainly informs them. He went on to talk about the data can lead to more questions even. It’s that curiosity that makes me believe he will succeed. There were some implications again that the Royals have all the data in the world and just need to better utilize it, which I think they will, but I will reiterate that I believe in Quatraro to be the one to disseminate that information. I don’t remember if I’ve said this on the radio or written it, so I might be repeating myself, but I think Matheny understood what the data was saying but didn’t grasp the why. If you don’t know the why, you can’t communicate effectively. Quatraro understands the why. That’s huge. And I think it’s a big reason why he’ll be successful. He still has to do it, but I’m a bigger believer today than I was yesterday and I was a pretty big believer yesterday.

Crazy World Series

If you had told anyone before the series that the Astros would have had a 5-0 lead in three of the first four games, you’d assume there was a parade heading for downtown Houston at some point in the next few days. And yet, with their blown lead in Game One, this is a series that is going to have to return to Houston as we’ll see Game Six on Saturday night following the Astros win in Game Five to take a 3-2 lead into what could be the final game of the season tomorrow night. A few things have stood out to me throughout this series and really the whole postseason, but I think we can marvel a little at some of how we got to this point in the Series. Justin Verlander blowing a big lead after three perfect innings was surprising. The Astros offense going ice cold for a bit was surprising. The third ever postseason no-hitter was very surprising even though I don’t think anyone should be surprised by Cristian Javier giving up next to nothing.

But what I think we’ve seen from this World Series is the same thing that I feel we’ve tried to be taught repeatedly. There are so many ways to win a championship, especially with the playoff field expanded and the regular season continuing to get a little more diluted with each additional team that makes it in. You look at the Phillies and they’re led by legitimate star power. Aaron Nola (tough showings in this series but still excellent) and Zach Wheeler in their pitching staff and Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber on the offense (with special mention to Rhys Hoskins). That’s how they’re getting it done. The Astros are just a machine, though they have shown their lineup falls off a bit at the bottom. But Javier threw six no-hit World Series innings and he’s their number four starter. I mean, come on. He’s allowed seven hits in his last six starts over 34.1 innings. HE’S THEIR NUMBER FOUR!

And if you look at the Braves last year, they did it with a dominant bullpen and a bunch of outfielders they collected at the deadline. The Dodgers were the complete team in 2020. The Nationals did it with the star power thing in 2019. The Red Sox with the players getting hot at the right time and having star power. I think it’s important to remember that if and when the Royals do something we don’t think can win a title. There are a lot of ways to win it.

Coaching Changes

I mentioned this a little bit early in the week when looking at what Quatraro might do with his coaching staff, but now we’re starting to see some movement with Pedro Grifol getting hired in Chicago to be the White Sox manager. First of all, I think that’s an outstanding hire for them and it really stinks that he didn’t get the chance he deserved in Kansas City when they hired Mike Matheny instead. But now we’ve got reports that he’s going to hire Mike Tosar as his hitting coach, which is a pretty big blow to the Royals. Tosar is the guy who many credit for Salvador Perez showing off more power and having his monster 2020 and 2021 seasons. He’s credited for Jorge Soler’s breakout in 2019 and he even worked with Maikel Franco before Franco had a very solid 2020 season. The Royals hitting machine will be just fine because they’ve got a good program in place now, but losing someone who was one of the first to put that program in place is something that certainly hurts some.

But for Quatraro, the question now becomes how he fills out his staff. Grifol will have Charlie Montoyo as his bench coach. He’s someone I wondered a bit if Quatraro would be interested in bringing in seeing as Montoyo preceded him in Tampa Bay as their bench coach before going on to manage the Blue Jays. Other than internal Royals names, one person who could serve as Quatraro’s bench coach are Brad Mills, who filled that role in Cleveland while Quatraro was there. Mike Sarbaugh would seem to fit that same idea as well. I’d really like to see him bring Rodney Linares with him from Tampa in some capacity, though I think Linares will quickly become a manager somewhere soon, especially if he stays with the Rays. Of course, the biggest question is pitching coach, but hopefully we have an answer on that soon enough. I think I’ve given more than enough possible names for that role over the last few weeks.

Winning as Development

I wrote on Wednesday about a bunch of relievers the Royals could go after, largely based on the idea that JJ Picollo himself has said that they would like to add to the bullpen. I was on 580 WIBW on Tuesday with Jake Lebahn and we were talking about the article that was, at the time, upcoming. He asked a question that I really appreciated and it was why they’d spend money on resources on a reliever or two for a team that wasn’t going to win anything. I think that’s a fair question. We’ve seen losing teams have great closers. Joakim Soria was outstanding for years and the Royals cracked 70 wins twice in his time as closer, the first time he was here. We’ve seen Scott Barlow put up a 2.30 ERA over the last two years. The Royals have won 139 games. So why go after a reliever?

The answer, to me, is that, at some point, winning has to be a part of development. The Royals roster in 2023 looks poised to feature quite a few players with less than two years of service time. And the number of games they lost that they could have won last season has to be demoralizing. The Royals lost 24 games last season that they were either tied (13) or led (11) after the sixth inning or later. I’m not asking them to win all 24 of them. But if they win half those games they led (let’s call it five) and one-third of the games they tied (let’s just call it four), they’re already at 74 wins.

While the butterfly effect is real, I can’t tell you what would be different in an alternate universe, but maybe one of those wins stops a losing streak and they pick up a win or two here and there. My point is there are easy wins to pick off the low-hanging branches and those can help a player go from being dejected to playing for something. No, a better bullpen doesn’t get them to 88 wins or whatever they need to make the playoffs, but it does potentially help aid the development so they can get there in 2024 maybe. I think that’s why you add to the bullpen.