Crown Jewels: Fifth Starter, Royals HOF and Next Year's Free Agents

The Royals have a competition for a rotation spot, three new team HOFers and the next free agent market is...rough.

We are now less than two weeks away from Opening Day. Well, hopefully we are. It’s March in Kansas City, which as we saw this week can mean gorgeous days or hellacious thunderstorms. So there’s every chance in the world that a March 28 Opening Day becomes a March 29 Opening Day, but let’s hope for the best for now. I feel like I’ve talked about the passage of time a lot more over the last few months, but it doesn’t feel like as long ago as it was that we were talking about what the Royals might do. There were Marcus Stroman rumors and Matt Chapman rumors and a lot in between. And they got a ton done! I’ll get to one roster battle in particular down in the notes here, but things are coming down to the wire.

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One thing I’ve wondered a bit is if the Royals would even consider trading one of Adam Frazier or Garrett Hampson. It’d be very weird and I honestly don’t know if it’s ever happened, but these are depth guys who I think would be intriguing to teams if injuries come up. And hey, the Yankees have lost Oswald Peraza for the start of the year at least. I don’t know. It’s probably ridiculous to even mention and either would have to approve the deal, but it would be a way to clear some of the logjam with Nick Loftin still having a great spring. I doubt they’d trade either of them because there are some optics to figure out with that too, but I don’t think I’d be especially surprised if they make a move before the end of spring. This is Trader JJ after all.

Fifth Starter

When the spring started, I had heard from a few people who I trust enough that the Royals were not locked in on Jordan Lyles as their fifth starter. I didn’t believe it, mostly because they typically are locked in on guys making money. They did a really nice job last year of walking away from some money when it was necessary, so I wasn’t convinced Lyles would be in the rotation even as soon as June, but I thought the competition wasn’t real. I now believe I was very wrong and I believed that even before Lyles had the little back issue that put him out of action for a bit.

When the spring started, I believe the competition was between Lyles and Daniel Lynch IV with Angel Zerpa sort of lurking. Zerpa was really good in September for the Royals and I think that got him into the conversation. Lynch has had a fine enough spring by the numbers and had his best outing his last time out on Wednesday, which is a big boost for him.

But his velocity continues to be down where it was last season and until Wednesday, he just hadn’t been able to get the swing and miss. That’s fine because early in spring, you’re clearly working on things and ramping up. I’d like to see the velocity start to come up a bit, so that’s a concern, but getting the curve and slider working on Wednesday was good to see because when I saw him, he looked like the same Lynch I’ve seen since he’s been a big leaguer, and that’s not a compliment.

Zerpa was the guy who emerged as the best candidate through the first couple weeks of spring, but then he struggled in his most recent start. There’s a give and take there, I guess. I’m not sure the upside with Lynch is especially high anymore, but I don’t see Zerpa as having much more upside than a back-end starter. Which is fine. You’d love to have four or five aces, but that’s pretty difficult to achieve, so you need competent arms to fill out your staff and I believe Zerpa can be that.

As the spring has progressed, though, another competitor is now out there in Alec Marsh. Everything he’s done this spring has put him in a conversation I don’t think anyone expected him to be in. But as he’s reshaped his fastball and made changes, he’s looking as good as he ever has. All the spring caveats apply, but there’s an argument to be made that in a rotation that you’d think has a higher floor, having a high-ceiling guy in that fifth spot makes a world of sense. So we’ll see how the rest of his spring goes.

And a lot of it does depend on Lyles. He’s scheduled to start tomorrow against the Cubs. I still think the contract breaks all ties, which isn’t how I’d operate if I was actually believing I could win a division. Maybe I’m wrong. If he pitches well against the Cubs, it looks like he’d get one or maybe two more outings to get his pitch count up. I still think it’s possible he gets an IL stint to start the year with them not needing a fifth starter until April 6, but if he can get to 65 or 70 pitches in his next start after Saturday and then get some side work, he’s still got a great chance to break as the fifth starter. It’s one of the more interesting roster battles left.

The Royals Hall Grows

The Royals announced on Wednesday that they’d be inducted Bo Jackson into the team Hall of Fame. It’s about freaking time! And then they doubled down on the “about freaking time!” group with the announcement that Cedric Tallis was going to be inducted as well. I actually had to check to make sure it wasn’t a mistake when they announced it because I was sure that Tallis had to already be in there. But nope. I’m not sure how the architect of the early Royals success has been omitted for so long, but that error is finally being corrected.

Tallis was just so good at building the Royals that they were considered the model expansion franchise. Building a team is so different today that what he did probably doesn’t apply to Nashville and Montreal or Portland and Charlotte or Salt Lake City and Topeka or whoever the next two expansion franchises are, but he had the Royals with a winning record by their third year and making real runs at the postseason by their fifth season. Heck, if they had the playoff structure they do today, they’d have made the postseason in 1971, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977 and 1978, all largely on the back of what Tallis did to build the organization.

Arguably the best trade in Royals history was trading Joe Foy to the Mets for Amos Otis. Tallis made that one. He also traded for Hal McRae, Freddie Patek, John Mayberry, Cookie Rojas and Lou Piniella. That’s a bunch of Royals Hall of Famers and a Rookie of the Year. It’s just an incredible run of winning trades for him and without these moves, I don’t know what happens in the 1970s for the Royals as they established themselves as one of the best franchises. Do they eventually win? Maybe! Or do they occasionally bob above .500 and then still hit their downward cycle in the ‘90s? This franchise owes so much to Tallis.

Then there’s John Schuerholz is getting inducted as well. He’s not quite as much on the list of massive omissions, partially because his career really just ended recently. But he was the general manager, beginning in 1981, and helped to build a World Champion team in 1985. When he took over, he was taking on a team that had lost in the World Series the year before, so it wasn’t without talent, but that was a team that was in need of a transition. It can be so tough to change the guard. It helps when you’ve got George Brett and Frank White to help be the bridges there, but it’s still tough.

Schuerholz was part of bringing in all that pitching talent that led to winning the World Series. He teamed up with Dick Howser to shift the Royals from their team that won divisions but didn’t win in the playoffs to the team that ultimately would be the last postseason club for them for a long time. It was a heck of a run of GMs from Tallis to Joe Burke to him. It’s actually a bit wild to me that a team that has struggled as much as the Royals have over the years are only on their seventh general manager. And other than JJ Picollo, who is still active, Tallis was actually the shortest tenured. That’s wild.

And to end this section with the first one mentioned, Jackson gets in. If you take the phrase “Hall of Fame” seriously, there are very few Royals players ever to be more famous than Bo Jackson. I don’t believe they’ve ever had another player with his own Nike campaign. On the field, Jackson did things nobody else could. We’ve all seen the throw, the All-Star Game home run and the bat breaking after a strikeout. He could hit the ball 450 feet, run faster than anyone and throw farther than anyone. He was a simply amazing athlete who figured out how to succeed well enough on the field. For the Royals, he hit .250/.308/.480.

What’s so upsetting about his career is that it seemed like he was starting to really figure some things out before the hip injury. He hit .258/.313/.496 with 85 home runs and 68 steals in 370 games in the last three years with the Royals. That was good for an OPS+ of 124. The dude was good without even really knowing how to be a good baseball player. It’s just nuts to me. Things derailed for him over the last few years after he was hurt, so he’s kind of been forgotten, but here’s how he ranks in Royals history in a few categories.

• SLG: 4th

• OPS: 16th

• HR: 15th

• SB: 19th

• Adjusted OPS+: 10th

It’s not elite by any stretch, but the man was truly famous and tells a big part of the story of the Royals from his time on the team. I’m glad he made it in because it’s more than stats even though some of the stats are really impressive.

Let’s Look Way Ahead

With the end of spring on the horizon, there isn’t quite as much to discuss in terms of roster building. Not that we have to do this, but if you’re the Royals front office, you’re already looking ahead to next winter’s free agent class. Things can obviously change quite a bit with extensions, non-tenders and the like, but looking at what we know now, a few things stand out to me.

There will be veteran starters available. If things go as the Royals plan, Michael Wacha will be opting out of his deal and hitting the free agent market again. Lyles is a free agent. If nobody else steps up to take his spot, that’s two starters they’ll be losing. Theoretically, they could look to trade Brady Singer if he bounces back but the team struggles. While I really like guys like Mason Barnett and Chandler Champlain along with incumbents like Lynch, Zerpa and Marsh, the Royals may be in the market for more veteran starters on short deals. Alex Cobb, Jack Flaherty (though they weren’t terribly interested this year), Andrew Heaney, Yusei Kikuchi, John Means, Nick Pivetta, Jose Quintana and a reunion with Wacha could be possible.

They can rebuild the bullpen through free agency with veterans on short deals again pretty easily. Heck, a lot of the same names that were out there to start this winter will be out there next year too. What the relief market doesn’t offer is a true standout closer if nobody steps up for this team in 2024. Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel are there as veterans who have done the job, but there isn’t the guy you’re willing to give up multiple years and tens of millions of dollars toward. That’s probably fine, but if the Royals find themselves in a spot where they feel like they need one true shutdown guy at the end, they won’t find it on the free agent market.

And if they find themselves really hunting the outfield market because Hunter Renfroe worked out well enough to opt out and command a big deal and MJ Melendez flopped (or something like that), they’re going to feel like they’re in trouble. Juan Soto is there, but I have a hunch the Royals aren’t landing him. Maybe you take a shot on Victor Robles and hope the talent turns into results, but that’s not a sure thing at all. Maybe you go for Anthony Santander, but there just isn’t a lot there, so hopefully the outfield situation sorts itself out internally or via trade.

They do have some question marks at second and third right now. If they still have those question marks heading into free agency, I think they can make something happen there. Brandon Drury could make some sense at either spot, though I prefer him at third. Gleyber Torres is out there and if he doesn’t get a surprising deal could be a fit. There’s also JD Davis, maybe Chapman again and even Alex Bregman. Depending on the type of year the Royals have in 2024, I could see them wanting to go big on someone. I’m not sure I’ll predict they do, but I could see it happening.

All of that is to say that it’s not an especially deep group. I don’t know if that was part of the way the Royals spent so much this winter, though I sort of think it wasn’t with all the one-year deals and all the one-plus-one deals, but it certainly would make some sense if it was. Regardless, with the market shaping up the way it is, the Royals will need to see some internal improvement this year or be willing to spend pretty big next winter to fill holes because outside of the rotation, the mid-tier guys are more low-tier.