Crown Jewels: Arbitration Numbers, Royals Third Base Interest and the Relief Market

It feels like we're about to reach a breaking point for offseason action and the Royals will be involved, but at what level?

I’m still amazed at the pace of this offseason for the entire league. We are still sitting at just 28 players signed out of the top 50 on the MLB Trade Rumors list. And it’s evident up and down the list. Four of the top 10 are still out there. Of the top 20, 13 are still out there. Go down the list and no matter the number you look at, it’s roughly 55 to 60 percent signed with the rest available. There have been moves, and they’ve sort of been regular, but the other shoe has to drop at some point. I’ve referenced the newsletter I wrote where it was really about who would blink first, but that’s still sort of the case.

Yesterday was a busy day with arbitration numbers being thrown around, which does take up some time and energy from teams. Now that they’re done with that and we’re sitting about a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting, I wonder if we start to see some big movement. Last year after the arbitration deadline, we saw a good number of signings including Marcus Stroman, Jordan Hicks, Aroldis Chapman, James Paxton, David Robertson, Joc Pederson, Justin Turner, Carlos Santana, Jurickson Profar, Jorge Soler, Randal Grichuk, Matt Chapman and plenty of others. This year, as I said above, even more are available for the taking. So maybe this will be the event that gets things back on track to get players signed. I don’t think anyone wants to start the year the way Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell did last year by waiting too long.

One thing I want to note is that I have two VIP tickets to Royals Rally on February 1 that I’m giving away to a random paid subscriber. Click the ad below to become a paid subscriber if you’re not already one to be eligible for the giveaway. I’ll be choosing a winner on January 24!

This week’s newsletters:

Michael Lorenzen Fills Another Piece of the Royals Puzzle

What's Repeatable from 2024 for the Royals? And What's Not?

Royals Arbitration Cases

The Royals settled their arbitration case with Kyle Wright earlier in the offseason, which left six other players eligible for arbitration - Kris Bubic, Hunter Harvey, Carlos Hernandez, Kyle Isbel, MJ Melendez and John Schreiber. I’m a little confused why Daniel Lynch IV wasn’t eligible with two years and 136 days of service time. He should have been Super Two eligible as the cutoff was at two years and 132 days and anyone with more time than that would get an additional year of arbitration. But maybe I’ve just missed an explanation somewhere. Either way, they settled with all six. Here are the 2025 salaries for them:

Bubic: $3 million
Harvey: $3.7 million
Hernandez: $1.16 million
Isbel: $1.75 million
Melendez: $2.65 million
Schreiber: $2.3 million

All of them were in the range of the estimates that MLB Trade Rumors puts out, which is always interesting to me. They do such a great job on those estimates. But I’m happy that the team was able to get through those without having to go to a case. I know it’s not my relationship on the line with anyone, but if you’ve ever read stories of those trials, they’re no joke. It’s the team telling the player why he isn’t good enough to get the salary he’s asked for while the player is trying to defend himself. Why any team would go through that with any important player is crazy to me, but teams do it all the time and over some paltry figures.

There aren’t as many crazy ones this year, but Luis Rengifo and the Angels are literally $150,000 apart. It’s the most ridiculous when it’s actual stars who are so close with their teams. They’ve clearly been negotiating to try to avoid arbitration, so both sides know where the other is. I’d be surprised if the Angels had just offered Rengifo $5.9 million instead of $5.8 million if he’d said no. Of course, maybe the $5.8 million was a Rengifo-tilted compromise as is. We don’t really know. But there are some players who we can look at and see if maybe there’s a rift. With the Cardinals, for example, both Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan were rumored to be close to a deal and that didn’t happen. They might agree to one today, but that’s interesting as both could have interest for the Royals.

Overall, I have the Royals guaranteed salaries at about $102 million with the 26-man roster sitting at about $110 million accounting for minimum salaries for the rest of the roster after those guaranteed numbers. That includes Chris Stratton who I have a hunch doesn’t make it to Opening Day with the Royals, but they’re paying the salary either way, very likely. I know they’ve said they want to end up around last year’s number, but I’ve continued to hear that they’d stretch for the right player. Keep in mind, in free agency that the right player who has a qualifying offer would also cost them the 62nd pick in the draft (that could move a bit still too). But I will say what I’ve said so many times and tell you that they’re not done, even after the Michael Lorenzen signing.

Barking Up the Third Base Tree

You can see the initial tweet that Jeff Jones is quoting there and then the mention of the Royals. If you’re wondering who Jones is, he covers the team for the Belleville News-Democrat often, but is a member of the BBWAA and has been around for a long time with connections built. I would not be surprised if this report is accurate, and it’s very interesting. The meetings were just a month ago. You might recall the timing of that for the Royals. Heading into the meetings, JJ Picollo talked about all the things he wanted to do. Leaving the meetings, they hadn’t done anything. And that’s when the tone shifted.

That’s also about when I had that conversation I wrote about with who would blink first, and as I mentioned above, I think acquiring teams, either via trade or free agency, have generally not blinked. We’ve seen prices get pretty reasonable on some free agents. Lorenzen for $7 million total is an example of that. Anyway, two things stick out from this from Jones. One is that the Royals called and the Cardinals, knowing what Arenado’s wish list was (he has a full no-trade and didn’t include the Royals) said it’s not even worth talking. I get that. Why negotiate something for days/weeks only to have it go nowhere because the player said no?

Of course, if they knew he’d say no to the Royals, would you even want that player later knowing the teams he wanted to go to didn’t want him? That’s a fair question. I also think it’s a fair question of if there’s even a deal to be made. Arenado is still an outstanding defender, but the bat is very clearly in decline. He hit .272/.325/.394 last year. Yes, that would be an improvement over what they got from third base, but at what cost financially? He’s owed $32 million in 2025 with the Rockies covering $5 million of that. He’s owed $27 million in 2026 with the Rockies covering $5 million. And then he’s owed $15 million in 2027. His deal allows for $6 million of the salaries for 2025 and 2026 to be deferred and paid from 2032 to 2041 with no interest. So that means the acquiring team would pay $52 million over the next three years ($37 million over the next two) and then theoretically $12 million at some point during that 10-year window.

I guess it’s just money, but I wouldn’t pay Arenado that much and I certainly wouldn’t give up anything of value to do that. I suppose if the Cardinals covered the deferred payments and then ate another, I don’t know, $16 million to make it 3/36, I’d probably get there, but I’m not sure if that’s what they want to do anyway. I’m probably lower than a lot of people on what that money would need to be, but I just can’t see a world where a guy who is already slow and in offensive decline gets three more years at big money. Maybe I’m just being too pedantic here.

But the moral of the story that I find so interesting is that a month ago, the Royals asked about a third baseman. I think it’s very clear they’re willing to make an upgrade there. Maybe they end up hoping Jonathan India’s arm is enough there and they focus their offensive attention on the outfield, but I feel like I’ve taken my eye off third base upgrades a little too much thinking they weren’t out there. In free agency, it does seem unlikely that they’d make a move, though I still think Yoan Moncada makes sense on a small deal. But don’t sleep on a Brett Baty deal if the Mets can get Pete Alonso signed (or Alex Bregman, but that seems unlikely). I wonder if Rengifo is available still with their contract dispute. I’m not a fan of Ryan McMahon, but he fits the Arenado mold. I don’t know. I could see a deal coming together at third at some point.

The Relief Market

One spot that hasn’t really moved at all is the reliever market. Clay Holmes signed, but he signed as a starter. Chris Martin signed, but he apparently only wanted to pitch for the Rangers in his final season. Otherwise, it’s been a lot of minor league deals and relatively small one-year contracts other than maybe Yimi Garcia, Chapman, Jordan Romano and Blake Treinen. Look at some of the names still out there:

Carlos Estevez
Kyle Finnegan
Tim hill
Jeff Hoffman
Kenley Jansen
David Robertson
Tanner Scott
Paul Sewald
Ryne Stanek
Spencer Turnbull
Kirby Yates

That’s just a sampling, but there are a lot of options. And I wonder a little if the Royals aren’t eyeing this and waiting just to see what happens. I know they’re hoping for and quasi-counting on a bounceback from Harvey. I get it. He was one of the better relievers in the game for two and a half years and suddenly just stinks? I suppose it’s possible, but with the injury issues at the end of the year, you have to feel like that played a role. From what I hear, he’s healthy now, but everyone is healthy in January if you listen to reports. But otherwise, the bullpen has a lot of potential to be really good, but enough uncertainty that you know it could all implode.

The most confidence anyone has is in Lucas Erceg who just finished his second year pitching in the big leagues. Look, he’s earned the confidence, but even he is no sure thing. Kris Bubic could be in the rotation. Lynch was great in September as a reliever, but is it sustainable? Angel Zerpa was great in September, but is it sustainable? It’s just a lot of guys with a lot of questions, so I do think there’s a chance that, as relievers get a bit desperate, the Royals try to add a little more certainty to the mix.

I really wanted them to sign Stanek last year as a free agent and thought the formula was there. They had a manager and a bench coach who had worked with him at a previous stop. It’s his hometown. But there was just no interest either way it seemed. Maybe he doesn’t want to pitch near home. Some players want to be close, others don’t. I get it. But there are so many others. I’d love to see them go get a late-inning reliever who can either handle the ninth to give Erceg freedom to put out fires or someone who can put out the fires himself. Is that Yates? Or Robertson? Or Jansen as an experienced closer who can help mentor Erceg?

I really don’t know who it will be, but I just have a hunch that the Royals are going to be in on someone who should be able to make a difference out of the bullpen in 2025. It ultimately may not work out, of course, as relievers are pretty finicky, but that’s a market where I think we could see some action from your favorite team in the next couple of weeks. And I also think that once one of them signs (other than Scott, who is setting the market for nobody else really), we might see a lot go off the board quickly.