Crown Jewels: Salvy's Struggles, Charles in Charge and Trade Talks

The Royals best power hitter is in a rut, but they've got a prospect climbing fast at least.

The Royals lost again last night, which is a phrase that I probably should have created a keyboard shortcut to type at this point. They got five solid innings from Jordan Lyles, which was actually nice to see if they hope to trade him (stop laughing, it’s possible, though not probable), but then the bullpen imploded. It’s always something. While the wins and losses haven’t mattered much for awhile, we’ve now reached the point in the season where what happens off the field matters a lot more than what happens on it. That’s because we’re at the start of what I think is one of the most important eight months in the history of the franchise.

That may seem hyperbolic, but I truly don’t think it is. The draft that starts Sunday is big for this franchise. The trade deadline three weeks from Tuesday is big for this franchise. And the offseason is big for this franchise. It’s very easy to sit here on July 7 and say what we think is in the future for this organization, but we’ll have a much better answer in the evening on August 1 and then an even better answer around mid-February (or maybe sooner if they get their offseason work done early). I know that it’s not popular to say when you’re writing about a 25-63 team, but there is a path to contention a lot faster than most believe will happen. It will require some luck, some smart decisions and probably a little more luck, but it’s there. It seems like they haven’t had much in the way of luck or smart decisions lately, so I get if you can’t say you believe it’ll happen. I’m just here to say there is the path. Let’s get to the notes.

Salvy Needs to Sit

This feels like a yearly tradition now. Salvador Perez gets hurt in some way, often not anything of his own doing, and then comes back way too fast and struggles because there’s no reason in the world why he came back so fast. We saw it last year with his thumb injury. He left a game early on May 17, spent roughly the minimum time on the IL and then came back and went 1 for his first 23. The difference was that after that he got hot before he had to go back on the IL to have surgery on that thumb. And, to be fair, he came back from that surgery super fast and hit the ground running.

This year, the bumps and bruises have really added up. And then on June 14 against the Reds, he got hit in the hand by a pitch. There was a fear it was broken, but the Royals got good news. And he missed the rest of that game and one more. There was also an off day. So he got hit on a Tuesday in his second plate appearance and was back in the lineup on Friday. Since then, he’s hit .152/.211/.197. That is a 10 for 66 line with one extra base hit (a homer) in 17 games.

In addition to getting hit in the hand, the broadcast talks regularly about how he has welts on his legs from getting beaten up so badly behind the plate. At this point, his insistence on staying in the lineup almost every day is hurting the team. Not that it matters because a win or a loss doesn’t change much, but something he thinks is so noble for a young team is actually causing a problem. What’s interesting is that he probably has the best backup catcher he’s ever had in his career with Freddy Fermin. Now, I do appreciate that Matt Quatraro is the first manager who actually gives him days off, but the Royals need to sit Salvy down and tell him he’s going to get a couple of weeks off.

The actual amount of time doesn’t matter that much. I don’t know how bad the bumps and bruises are for him. But the point is that he needs to get himself healed up because he isn’t doing himself or the team any favors. And aside from the lack of production, the Royals could use the at bats to give someone like Logan Porter a look. It’s not like they’re so overflowing with offensive talent that they can’t handle looking at one more bat this year.

I don’t know that this is really different than any other organization would handle someone like Perez, so I don’t to bash the team too much. I do know that he’s being handled this way by a third manager and the three managers all couldn’t be more different than each other, so it’s either an overarching organizational philosophy with him or an overarching baseball philosophy. Either way, I’d like to see them step in and save a player from himself.

Austin Charles and Prospect Helium

The Royals made a very interesting selection in the final round of the 2022 draft when they selected Austin Charles out of Stockdale High School in Bakersfield, California. They gave him their sixth-highest bonus in that 20th round. Charles is a big-bodied shortstop, who actually was a two-way player in high school and there was some talk he might be a two-way player in professional baseball, but he’s stuck with being a position player so far. I’m actually a little confused because everything about him when he was drafted said he was 6’6” and he’s listed as 6’4”, but either way, his size is rare for a shortstop (though less rare every day, it seems).

With the size, he’s been comped to Aaron Judge, which is a dangerous game, but does show what kind of tools he has. He played three games last year in the complex league after he was treated, so nothing can be gleaned from that, but people I talked to in the organization raved about him. He started this year back in the complex league, but after two games, the Royals promoted him to low-A Columbia. And, as a 19-year old who doesn’t turn 20 until November, he’s about two years younger than the average player in the league.

His first 14 games were a bit slow. He did have a three-hit game, but he was 11 for 52 with just five doubles, 13 strikeouts and one walk. That’s not great! But for the last week plus, all he’s done is hit. He’s hitting .464/.515/.964 with six doubles, a triple and two home runs in his last eight games. He’s struck out six times and walked four times. He’s playing mostly third base and looking really good there. It feels like every night, we see a highlight from him somewhere where he’s just smacking the ball around the field.

I spoke with a scout who works for another team who said he was the best player on the field this week. The swing is incredibly unorthodox, which is worth following as he gets to higher levels, but he said he’s one of a handful of the best pure hitters he’s seen in the minors this season because, even though it doesn’t look great, it just works for him. Now Charles is hitting .300/.333/.538 in his first taste of full-season ball. He’s had nine plate appearances against a pitcher younger than him.

This is the sort of prospect helium we see from other teams when guys burst onto the scene, so I’m just not sure how to handle this. I made it seem like this is an eight-game hot streak, but I think the contact profile got a lot better about a week earlier and he’s actually hitting .360/.414/.700 with nine doubles, a triple and two home runs since the start of his first full home series with Columbia, so it’s been going on a bit longer than eight games. But still, it’s not a large sample so we’ll need to wait to get too excited, but I think Charles is easily a top-10 prospect in the system and he might be a top-five. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s a top-100 prospect in baseball by the start of next year.

As we sit on the precipice of the 2023 draft, it’s probably worth mentioning that the Royals have done quite well in last year’s draft, so far. I know that Gavin Cross has had a disappointing year, but Cayden Wallace has hit well and has looked good at third base. Mason Barnett and Steven Zobac have pitched well. David Sandlin has looked great and is already in high-A. Javier Vaz has shown outstanding strike zone recognition in high-A. Ben Sears has struck out 43 and walked four in relief. Cooper McKeehan has allowed 22 hits in 40.2 innings in Columbia. Milo Rushford is getting rave reviews in the complex league. They did a nice job (so far) and Charles may end up being the gem.

The Next Trades

We know the Royals have moved Aroldis Chapman, but we’ve seen Taylor Clarke completely torpedo the trade value that he legitimately had less than a month ago. If I had to guess, I’d say we continue to see him in semi-leverage spots at the very least because I think the Royals may try to rebuild some of that. And here’s the thing. I think a lot of Clarke’s issues stem from command. The shape of the pitches is no different than when he was posting a 2.70 ERA through June 12 with 34 strikeouts and three homers allowed in 30 innings. He’s just locating poorly. That’s fixable. Will it be in time? Will a team care enough? I have my doubts, but I think it’s worth trying.

I think Scott Barlow is 95 percent getting traded. I’m hesitant to say even higher, but I know better than that. He’s going to bring back a pretty solid return. I know people are down on him because he hasn’t been perfect, but he made a bit of a tweak in mid-April, from what I understand, and since he blew up a bit against the Rangers, he has a 2.84 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 33.7 percent strikeout rate and 9.5 percent walk rate. I don’t know that he’ll be a team’s closer after he’s traded, but that’s bullpen depth that any team both wants and needs.

I also think Amir Garrett gets moved, though I won’t be terribly surprised if he doesn’t. Jake Diekman was kind of a similar pitcher last year and got moved for Reese McGuire, a backup catcher, and Taylor Broadway, a minor league ready. You never know what guys can become, but that’s the sort of return to expect for Garrett.

Other than the relievers, I’m very curious to see how they handle the position players. I maintain that Kyle Isbel could be a guy who teams would be interested in as a cheap defensive wizard to plug in the way the Royals used to plug in Jarrod Dyson. Would the Royals trade him? I don’t think so, but he could be a nice sweetener with a reliever to a team like the Marlins or even the Dodgers who have had some defensive struggles in their outfield. Nicky Lopez makes a lot of sense on either of those teams too, though I think more on the Dodgers.

And then there’s Edward Olivares, who isn’t long for this organization. The Yankees are actually a great fit for him. They could use a righty bat, though the massive left-center in Yankee Stadium probably means he’s more of a right fielder, but that could work there for him. The Twins, Brewers, Dodgers and Mariners all could use someone to hit against lefties as well. So I think there’s a market there, though I’ve heard mixed thoughts on that, so I’m just not completely sure.

One name that I think is interesting is Lyles. I didn’t buy it, but I did talk to someone with another team who said that if the Royals paid for his 2024 salary, they’d consider it. Teams sometimes just need innings and teams that have good offenses can actually absorb four or five runs over six or seven innings in a way the Royals haven’t been able to this year. I put the chances at like 10 percent, but I’d have said zero a month ago, so that’s an improvement.

And as for the young talent, I don’t think you see any of them moved this deadline. I don’t think it’s smart to sell low on MJ Melendez. I don’t see them moving Maikel Garcia or Bobby Witt Jr. or Nick Pratto at this point. I don’t think Witt is going anywhere at all, but an offseason move would make more sense for pretty much all of the young players other than Garcia, and I don’t get the sense they’re going to really consider moving him. If I had to guess the number of current players traded (including Chapman), I’d put it at four, but I don’t think I’d be too surprised at six or seven. A