Depth, Inventory and Maybe an Identity

The Royals haven't had an identity in awhile. There's a chance they have one in 2023.

When you think of good teams, many of them have one particular thing that comes to mind. Last year’s Astros had a fantastic starting rotation. The 2021 Braves had that bullpen. The 2015 Royals had the bullpen and defense. There’s more to a good team than one particular unit, but there’s pretty much always a backbone that is there when other areas may falter from time to time. Lately I’ve been thinking about the process of becoming a good team. I think the championship Royals teams are instructive in reminding me that there are multiple ways to do it. But one, I think, is to build the backbone first and go from there.

And I wonder a little if that isn’t what the Royals have done with this roster and their bullpen in particular. Last season, Royals relievers were fourth-worst in ERA, dead last in FIP, fifth-worst in strikeout rate and worst in walk rate. And, to be transparent in case you’ve forgotten, I thought in April the bullpen would be a strength. I wrote something along the lines that the bullpen would win the team games they shouldn’t win. In my defense, I was drunk on April Collin Snider, so don’t hold it against me. I also think it’s fair to note that they were seventh in strikeout rate in April and only 10th-worst in walk rate, so at least there was something to back it up.

But now I look to this bullpen in 2023 and think it can be a strength again. Am I being fooled or is this real? To answer that, it’s helpful to look back. There were 14 relievers with 10 or more appearances out of the bullpen last season. In order, they were:

Scott Barlow
Dylan Coleman
Amir Garrett
Taylor Clarke
Jose Cuas
Josh Staumont
Collin Snider
Joel Payamps
Carlos Hernandez
Wyatt Mills
Gabe Speier
Anthony Misiewicz
Luke Weaver
Brad Keller

The top seven remain in the organization, but the pecking order is very different. Barlow is still at the top and Coleman is still near the top, but Garrett is in the middle. Clarke, who took on a late-inning role he did fine in but probably shouldn’t have been in is in the middle or lower. Cuas and Snider are now depth. Hernandez, if his WBC outing is any indication, may have figured some things out. Payamps, Milles, Speier, Misiewicz and Weaver are gone while Keller is back in the rotation with one and a half new pitches.

Instead, the Royals have added the following on the 40-man, all lefties interestingly enough:

Aroldis Chapman
Richard Lovelady
Josh Taylor
Ryan Yarbrough

They’ve also added Mike Mayers and Nick Wittgren as non-roster invitees who have a shot to crack the roster (though Mayers probably cost himself big-time yesterday) and I continue to hear glowing reports on Ryan Weiss, who was on the 40-man last year even though nobody had ever heard of him and always asked who he was when they stumbled on the 40-man roster.

So I look at this group and I wonder how different they can be. Some of it is based purely on improvement and/or health. Staumont, for example, could be a key to the bullpen. I know I’ve given you all these numbers before, but in 2020/2021, he threw 91.1 innings with 63 hits allowed, a 2.76 ERA and a 29 percent strikeout rate. He dealt with injuries last season and that led to a disaster year, but he looks good this spring. One of the scouts I’ve chatted with a few times thinks he looks like 2020 Staumont and believes the pitch clock will be a big benefit to him. I think I wrote about that a few weeks ago wondering if not having time to overthink would be good for him. Spring training numbers are what they are, but he has nine strikeouts and three walks in six innings with just two hits allowed. That certainly works.

Hernandez is another example. I don’t believe the Royals see him as a starter anymore for a number of reasons, but among them is that he can do this in relief:

FOX Sports: MLB @MLBONFOX

Carlos Hernández is rolling on the mound for Venezuela with 4 Ks through 2 innings of work 🔥 📺: FS2 and the FOX Sports App

That’s some nasty work he did there. He only threw twice in games before the WBC, but he had five strikeouts with just one walk and three hits allowed in four innings in those two games. And I’m told the work he’s done with the new staff has been incredible. It’s fair to be skeptical of him, but nobody has once doubted the stuff would play in a relief role.

Garrett is another who could be the difference between a bullpen with good pitchers and a great bullpen. I have to think the philosophy for the catchers to set up down the middle is going to be good for him. He doesn’t throw straight pitches and even with all the struggles he had last year, he gave up 28 hits in 45.1 innings without allowing a home run. The issue all year was walks. He had way too many of them, and while that’s a theme in his carer, if he can even cut them by 25 percent (which I know is huge), he could be a beast again like he was in a shortened 2020 season.

And then there are guys returning from injury. Lovelady and Taylor might be competing for one roster spot and both missed the entire 2022 season. Both pitched a bit in the minors, but Taylor had a back issue and Lovelady was recovering from Tommy John. The whole impetus for me writing this was Lovelady last night against the Reds. I know they aren’t good and they strike out a lot, but he struck out three in his inning of work and looked kind of nasty doing it. It’s easy to forget he had a 27.4 percent strikeout rate and 7.1 percent walk rate in 2021 before getting hurt. Whatever bad blood there appeared to be between him and the coaching staff got fired the day the 2022 season ended. I believe he’s had a fourth option added, at least based on Roster Resource. But even so, while I didn’t have him on my last projection, I’m not sure how you leave him off the roster.

But then there’s Taylor who had a 28.7 percent strikeout rate in 2021 (and 32 percent in 2019). He could be a key component to a great bullpen too. He hasn’t been great this spring, so that might help the team out, but Lovelady and Taylor combined with Garrett make me scratch my head even more at the Chapman signing. At the same time, it builds that depth to have all of them. So then it becomes a game of inventory. I know I’m repeating myself from previous newsletters, but you have to look at who is out of options. It’s Chapman and Garrett, assuming the Hernandez and Lovelady additional options are correct on Roster Resource.

Sure, you won’t see Barlow optioned to AAA even though he has two options remaining, but literally any of the others could find themselves on the I-29 shuttle throughout the season (though I don’t think Coleman should at any point). I don’t know if Wittgren or Weiss or even Mayers have an opt-out date, so that may change things, but because of the way the pitching has performed so far, I think they’re finding themselves in an uphill battle to make the roster because they can be maintained as inventory. Yarbrough has only thrown one inning and it was mentioned in the latest roster projection from Anne Rogers that he’s been dealing with an injury, so it might make sense to push a decision as long as possible and start him on the IL.

I think I wrote this the other day in Crown Jewels, but it’s very interesting to me that you could make an argument that Clarke is the weakest link among the relievers and he was a primary setup man at times in 2022. That’s a pretty big jump from a bad bullpen to something that could be better. And yes, this unit could absolutely struggle. We saw it just last year that it looked like a better group than it ended up being, but the difference between this year and last year and between the bullpen and the other groups on the team is pure depth.

The lineup could be very good, but they don’t have the big league upside depth that the bullpen does, at least not right now. We’re already seeing it tested with the Drew Waters injury. But if someone like Kyle Isbel goes down, and he’s already a question of if he’ll hit or not, who replaces him? Jackie Bradley Jr., I guess? Not many teams have a great option for their third center fielder, so it’s not like I can fault them, but there are questions there. Heck, there are questions in the starting lineup. You feel like Vinnie Pasquantino will hit and Salvador Perez will hit for power. You assume Bobby Witt Jr. will improve but even if he doesn’t, the floor is an average offensive player. The same is true for MJ Melendez. But beyond that?

I love Michael Massey and he’s having a great spring, but who knows? And behind him is Nicky Lopez, who posted a .227/.281/.273 line last year. Hunter Dozier’s swing looks better, but he hasn’t been an above average hitter in four years. Behind him is Maikel Garcia, who everyone loves but is unproven. There’s also Matt Duffy, but he’s 32 and hit .250/.308/.311 last year. The point is that there’s very real upside but it’s nothing certain.

The rotation could be solid. If Zack Greinke (who looked very good last night) and Brady Singer do what they did last year and Brad Keller keeps pitching well enough and Daniel Lynch takes a couple of steps and Jordan Lyles is the fifth best starter, that’s a group that’ll win some games. The next man up is Kris Bubic and I have faith in him, but he hasn’t shown much. And the next beyond him is maybe Jonathan Heasley, who is having a brutal spring. Jackson Kowar showed some flashes last night, but the track record is rough. I really believe in Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove and Mitch Stetter, but they’re pretty thin in rotation depth for now too.

So that’s where I see a big difference in the bullpen. The rest of the team has shown reason for optimism but it should probably be cautious. The bullpen, on the other hand, has big-time arms from top to bottom and some very real depth that should allow them to go maybe as far as 13 deep from the start of the season with others mixing in throughout. It isn’t that there aren’t questions, but rather that if questions arise, they have answers ready to go. That’s a change from previous years and why I think this team might find their identity in the late innings from a good bullpen.