Eliminate Bad Pitches

Royals pitching has its struggles in 2023, so let's dig in to their pitches to see what worked and what didn't.

Pitching can be fascinating, and particularly how pitchers find success seemingly out of nowhere at times. Many times, it’s simply finding a better pitch mix. It’s such a simple concept but it’s also often easier said than done. Throw your best pitches more and your worst pitches less. What a novel idea! But hey, it works and we’ve seen guys tweak their repertoire to the point that they find themselves almost becoming new pitchers. But in order to do that, a pitcher needs to know what they do well and what they don’t.

So today, I want to dig into seven pitchers who figure to be part of the 2024 staff and gave us enough data in 2023 to look at and see what they should throw more and what they should throw less…or not at all. I’m going to be using a stat called Run Value and I’m going to use the RV/100 number, which is the run value per 100 pitches to normalize the data. You might be wondering about run value.

It is not a perfect statistic by any stretch of the imagination. But the reality is that no stat is perfect. It can all be used in conjunction with others. With run value, it basically looks at the change in run expectancy on each individual pitch. While you can look at the at bat result, this looks at what a strike from a fastball on a 1-0 count does to the run expectancy. For example, on a 1-1 count with runners on first and third and nobody out, a strike lowers the run expectancy for an opponent from 1.74 to 1.60. A ball raises it from 1.74 to 1.91. So whatever pitch led to that result would be accordingly noted.

Where there’s clearly a gap is let’s use that first and third situation again, but say the count is 0-2. A pitcher may throw a changeup down that may get taken in order to set up a fastball up. Well, that changeup would be worth -.04 runs because the 0-2 run expectancy in that situation rises from 1.56 to 1.60. But that doesn’t mean the changeup was a bad pitch because it was setting up the high fastball that theoretically gets the strikeout and drops the run expectancy from 1.60 to 1.21. So, again, not perfect and only part of the story. But let’s get to it anyway.

Cole Ragans

Normally when I list players, I do it alphabetically, but I’m quite frankly tired of that. I want to start this with the best the team has had to offer and that’s Ragans. Here’s a look at the run value per 100 pitches thrown on all his pitches. I’m using RV/100 because that allows us to compare much higher pitch totals for some by standardizing the denominator.

4-Seam Fastball: -0.7
Changeup: 2.8
Cutter: 1.2
Curveball: -0.1
Slider: 4.4

This is a pretty easy list to look at and know what to focus on for Ragans, only pitching is more than just looking at these numbers and moving on. He threw 40.1 percent four-seamers last season and while the run value on them wasn’t very good, he held opponents to a .187 xBA and a .352 xSLG. Why the difference? It probably lends itself some to the issues I mentioned. His fastball can be used to get outs, but it can also be used to set up any of his three out pitches listed above. So this doesn’t mean I’d have him stop throwing his fastball.

Though given that he gets a whiff on his slider 40.6 percent of the time, and a whiff on his changeup 34.4 percent of his time, I might indicate that he drops the two-strike fastballs down in the range of 30-33 percent rather than 42 percent and go a bit more to that slider. And what to make of the curve? It’s a good pitch that he uses for called strikes quite a bit. It does get whiffs, but I’d like to see him maybe try to use that more to start counts. This one was an easy one and a lot more fun than what’s to come.

Brady Singer

On the bright side with Singer, it’s a lot quicker to write about two and a half pitches than it is to write about five. On the dark side with Singer, well, where does he go when one (or both) of his main pitches isn’t working? He goes to the dugout after getting pulled in the fourth inning is where.

Sinker: -0.9
Slider: -0.2
Changeup: -1.2
Sweeper: 6.9

Okay, first of all, the sweeper looks dominant, but he threw 14 of them. I wouldn’t have a problem if he’s working on a differently-shaped slider like that this winter, so we can put a pin in that and see what happens when he comes to camp. I think the run values here are a case of his sinker going from a weapon in 2022 (0.3 RV/100, +4 RV, .244 xBA, .391 xSLG) to more of a stinker in 2023. Without the sinker and without another pitch to lean on, his slider gets exposed. It’s a good pitch, but it’s not good enough to succeed without something else to prop it up.

Where does Singer go from here? Man, I don’t know. I guess the hope is that the back issues at the end of the season were driving the major velocity decrease, but even if they were, he was sitting pretty significantly lower than 2022 before those issues. If he can identify what made him lose that velocity and get it back to averaging 93-93.5 MPH or so, I think it can work. Ideally, though, I’d be working on another pitch along with honing the changeup. I still think a splitter would work well for him, but he has yet to show an ability to add a pitch in the past, so I’m not going to hold my breath.

Jordan Lyles

4-Seam Fastball: -0.2
Sweeper: -1.2
Curveball: -2.0
Sinker: -1.2
Changeup: -2.7
Cutter: -0.4

So, uh, develop all new pitches? No, obviously that’s not going to happen. He did throw six different pitches at least 200 times in 2023, so there’s some good in that he could find that a few are working better on that particular day. The problem here is that, by results, it wasn’t much better. There isn’t much to say about Lyles. When he gets it done, it gets done because of command and because there’s value in pitching six or seven innings even if he gives up four runs.

The issue in 2023 was that four runs would have been great a lot of the time. If you’re looking at run value, the pitches weren’t all that different from his 2022 that was solid in a vacuum. I don’t know what the answer is here.

Daniel Lynch IV

What you’re about to see here is a pitch mix that actually has potential, but I just don’t know if we can ever count on it getting there.

4-Seam Fastball: -1.4
Changeup: 4.3
Slider: -0.1
Curveball: -2.2
Sinker: -17.7

Okay, he only threw 18 sinkers and it wasn’t terrible for him in 2022, so I’m going to go ahead and throw that out as noise. But what stands out here is the changeup. It was the pitch with the highest RV/100 on the Royals roster among pitches thrown 200+ times. Only Mike Mayers, Ragans and Tucker Davidson had any individual pitches with a higher RV/100. That’s a starting point. Unfortunately, in my opinion, it’s the worst starting point. It’s not unheard of to be different, but most pitchers use their changeup to boost the other pitches, not the other way around.

But that doesn’t mean there isn’t hope because a dominant pitch is a dominant pitch. That changeup was good for a .207 xBA and .309 xSLG with a 34.7 percent whiff rate and just a 19.2 percent hard-hit rate. That is the definition of a dominant pitch. He’s a bit like Singer, though, in that his lack of velocity leaves him without much wiggle room. His average velocity of 94 MPH from 2022 with the way his changeup developed in 2023 would probably have put him into a spot at least a bit closer to a lock for the rotation in 2024, but instead his velocity fell to 92.6 MPH.

Ultimately, none of it matters if he doesn’t figure out his fastball. His slider would benefit from it and his changeup would be even better. That curve, though? He can dump that entirely for all I’m concerned. Figure something else out. Maybe learn that cutter that I thought was terrible for Ragans after his first start but became a really good pitch for him. The upside of Lynch, to me, is that he’s willing to put the work in and understands pitching at a high enough level to make changes and make them work.

Alec Marsh

Depending on when you saw Marsh, you might think you saw a pitcher who should never see the big leagues again or someone who has a chance to be a legitimate part of a championship roster. If you think that’s silly, he had got whiffs on 25 percent or more on swings on five different pitches. That’s a pitcher you can at least dream on.

4-Seam Fastball: -0.2
Sweeper: -0.1
Curveball: -1.4
Changeup: -4.2
Slider: -0.7
Sinker: 2.7

And the sinker is the one pitch that he didn’t have a whiff rate of 25 percent, so I give up. But for real, this is the conundrum that is Marsh. He doesn’t throw enough strikes, so that’ll weigh down some of the numbers. I really think this is mostly location-based and the actual pitches are good enough to get hitters out. Similar to Lyles, he has a lot to choose from. Dissimilar to Lyles, what he has to choose from is actually the sort of stuff that can get big league hitters out.

Now, command isn’t an easy thing to figure out, but my recommendation to Marsh should not be to throw the sinker more, even though this one particular numbers says to. It’s to get that four-seam fastball more up and above the zone rather than in it and to stop throwing the changeup to lefties even though you’d think that’s the pitch he should throw to lefties.

Carlos Hernandez

I feel like Hernandez had two seasons. He was electric with some hiccups before the deadline and essentially unusable with a very small handful of success after. Was it mental? That would be my guess. He went from a guy who was not counted on to be a late-inning reliever to one who was counted on to be THE GUY. I can also tell you that before the season, more than one person within the organization had mentioned to me that they weren’t sure Hernandez could be counted on to be a starter because they were worried about him when he knew he wouldn’t be pitching on the days between starts because of some issues between the ears.

So yeah, I’d say it’s a good bet his issues were mental. And if that’s the case, none of this matters for him because he has the stuff, but until that changes, he can never be anything more than a middle reliever. If that is what he is, so be it. A good Hernandez as a bridge guy is actually pretty impressive if they can fill in behind him in the bullpen.

4-Seam Fastball: -0.1
Slider: -1.1
Splitter: -0.2
Curveball: -3.0
Sinker: -2.2

He only threw nine sinkers, so I’m not sure how much that number matters. But his curve is interesting to me. He threw 116 throughout the year. Of those 51 were taken for balls, 17 were whiffed on, 23 were taken for called strikes and nine were fouled off, which left 16 others. I guess it’s a good thing that only 16 of 116 were put in play, but I’m not sure there’s enough good from that pitch, even with the impressive whiff rate, for it to matter. I’d scrap it if I was home and focus on the fastball/slider/splitter combination. I don’t think it’s the worst thing to have the curve in his back pocket, but I don’t think it’s needed either.

James McArthur

What a revelation McArthur was in September, but I also think we should remember that it’s just one month for him. Nothing about what he did doesn’t feel sustainable, but you just never know with guys like him. Still, he was impressive and a lot of that came from his slider addition. As I’m typing this, I haven’t looked at the numbers yet, so I’ll be seeing if they match up along with you reading this.

Curveball: 2.5
Sinker: -2.8
Slider: 3.5

I love when the narrative matches the reality. His breaking balls are the good pitches. His sinker wasn’t especially good. For a reliever, this is okay. We saw what Scott Barlow was able to do for years with his breaking balls being his bread and butter. McArthur has a chance to be similar in that sense, but I wonder a little if there isn’t something more in the tank for McArthur with that sinker knowing that it’s not as important to set up his breaking balls as it is for, say, Singer. I could be wrong and I might be interested to see what a cutter or a splitter would look like for him instead, but I continue to be intrigued by him.

Who can they target in free agency with some plus pitches by RV/100? Here are a few highlights:

Ryan Brasier: Cutter, 5.0 and Sinker 3.1
Eduardo Rodriguez: Slider, 4.0
Will Smith: Slider, 3.9
Robert Stephenson: Cutter, 3.8
Matt Moore: Changeup, 3.8
Aroldis Chapman: Sinker 3.5
Sonny Gray: Sweeper, 3.2 and Cutter, 2.0
David Robertson: Cutter, 2.5
Seth Lugo: Sinker, 2.2
Kyle Gibson: Sweeper, 2.1
Emilio Pagan: Cutter, 2.1

Eliminate those bad pitches. Sign the guys with good pitches. Profit.