Evaluating the Royals Offensive Evaluation Year

The Royals are in a self-proclaimed year of evaluation. So let's evaluate what we know today.

Things have gotten a bit better for the Royals with a seven-game winning streak, and even in a 2-5 road trip, it just felt like they were playing better baseball. They lost one game because a very inexperienced bullpen blew the lead. That’ll happen. They lost one because the first base umpire made an inexplicable call (and then the inexperienced bullpen gave up a grand slam). And they lost another on the back of a ball getting caught in a light on the scoreboard and a catcher’s interference call that I still don’t think actually happened.

So yes, the Royals are bad and have been historically bad for most of the year. But they’ve looked better, which helps. This front office had a pretty good idea when their biggest free agent signing was a pitcher with a career 5.10 ERA that they weren’t going to be especially good this year. So it was always a year of evaluation. I’ve always said that you can lose every game and still find some success, even in a year like this. The success is in what you learn along the way to be able to fix in the following season.

When evaluating, finding out a player is part of the future is the preferred outcome. But we can’t always get what we want. The Rolling Stones will tell you that. The Royals need to figure out who can and can’t play. I think we can safely say that they’ve got plenty of evaluation in place and will get even more over the final 45 games of the season to move forward to work toward not repeating 2023.

A comment a few weeks ago now gave me an idea for a bit of a thought exercise. I have written and said multiple times that the 2023/2024 offseason is the most important in this franchise’s history. I’m not sure if that’s hyperbolic or not, but given the last competitive season this franchise had, I think it’s fair to say that it’s always been incredibly important. I wonder how big of a hole they’ve dug and how quickly they can dig out. The only way to find out is to take a look at what they have in place for 2024 and see how much needs to be filled, starting today with the offense.

The second half is now 26 games old and they’ve been much better at scoring since the break. They’ve done it with power and speed, which generally will get the job done. They’ve also caught the ball extremely well. For a long time, their Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) lagged way behind their Outs Above Average (OAA), but they’ve come all the way back and are currently -2 in DRS as a team, which is still very different than their 26 OAA, which ranks tied for second in baseball. By the Fangraphs defensive value metric, they’re the third-best defense in baseball.

All that to say, I think they’ve caught the ball pretty well, and they seem to have found some sort of formula for the defense that seems pretty sustainable into next season. But catching the ball isn’t the only thing that is required of a position player. Still, I think there’s some reason for optimism defensively at least. But let’s look at each position and who I think has solidified a spot next year.

C - Salvador Perez*
1B - Vinnie Pasquantino**
2B - Michael Massey
3B - Maikel Garcia
SS - Bobby Witt Jr.
LF -
CF -
RF -
DH -

Backup C - Freddy Fermin***
INF -
OF - Drew Waters/Kyle Isbel
INF/OF Isbel/Waters?

I’ve filled in the spots I feel good about. I have an asterisk on Perez because I think there’s a better-than-even chance he’s traded this winter. But he’s here for now. I have two asterisks on Pasquantino for two reasons. One, I’m assuming health here, which may not be wise, but I’m doing it anyway. And two, he could fit at DH as well. I have three asterisks on Fermin because he’s played well enough to start and there are certainly spots for him, as you can see above. But until they trade Perez, I’m not ready to pencil him into the catcher spot with Salvy at DH, though I’d say that even as the backup catcher, he could play 90+ games with this group. So that’s 13 spots and six to eight you feel good about.

Again, Pasquantino’s health is a question, but I’ve talked with a few people and read a few articles that make me feel confident that he’ll come back as what he was before the injury. I’ll maintain he’s a top-30 hitter in baseball until we see proof he isn’t. Having him and a theoretically rested/healthy Salvy in the middle of the order makes the lineup a little easier to construct, though the elephant in the room, again, is asking if Salvy will be there and we don’t know that right now.

It also helps when someone like Garcia fits at the top of the lineup as well as he does. He hasn’t been quite the OBP plus that I thought he’d be, but he’s still been good. I’d love to see an extra 15-20 points added to that next season, but I think there’s a reason to believe it can be given his minor league numbers. Behind him is Witt, who has broken out in a big way over the last few months and is finally the best player on this team.

When I started this, I didn’t have Massey in there at second base. The .223/.279/.376 season line looks ugly. But the .245/.317/.451 line since May 1 with 10 doubles, a triple and 10 homers to go along with an 8.4 percent walk rate and an 18.5 percent strikeout rate and very good defense has me believing that he’s at second base next season and has earned it. I’m not sure he’ll be able to withstand another horrific start, but I have him in my lineup.

Of those on the team right now, that’s five, and more likely six, regulars you feel good about. That’s better than I expected. And that doesn’t include MJ Melendez, who is sad to be leaving Boston but is hitting .280/.337/.538 since the break. I’m a broken record, but he made adjustments at the break, put in the work and has come out of the gates hitting like the guy we expected after his 2021 minor league breakout. Should he be in the above list? As of right now, I still say no, but if he keeps this up, absolutely.

I’m also feeling a lot more confident about Waters than I was a few weeks ago. He’s hit .257/.341/.600 over the last two weeks and .234/.302/.481 since the break. He can play a good center. I’m not sure how much you want him hitting in the top half of a lineup, but he has real power, can work a walk and switch hits, which is big for lineup construction (though he’s been way better from the left side). So I think if you wanted to write him above in pencil as more than a backup, that’s fine by me. I’m just not quite there yet.

I think we’ve seen that Isbel is good enough to be a big leaguer based on his defense alone. This can change, but even with his playing well, he probably shouldn’t be playing enough to get 600 at bats. He’s definitely looked better lately, so maybe that’s starting to shift, but I need to see more before I decide that. He can work in against certain pitchers and be a tremendous defensive sub late in games. I still think there’s more in his bat and maybe we’ve seen it come alive recently. Or maybe I’m wrong and this is just what he is. You can win with Isbel on your roster. I’m just not convinced you can win with Isbel starting without having a great offense filling the other eight spots.

I’m not sure Nick Pratto has what it takes. He just doesn’t seem to have enough hit tool to make it. He’s tweaked his approach a lot and I do appreciate that, but since his fast start that was somewhat luck-driven, he hasn’t done much of anything. His walk rate is even down quite a bit. I think there’s a place for him if he’s hitting .220 with a .330 OBP and .475 SLG, but if he’s hitting .220 with a .290 OBP and .375 SLG, he’s just not good enough. He doesn’t turn 25 until October, but he’s also already going to be 25 in October.

So you could run back the outfield from this year and put Melendez, Isbel and Waters out there. I’d rather not because I think they need one more piece. Dairon Blanco is a fun story, but he’s 30 already and hasn’t been great even though he’s shown flashes and an ability to get extra base hits. They’ve also got Tyler Gentry, John Rave and Tucker Bradley in AAA. Now they’ve got Nelson Velazquez too. There are some real options who I think they need to go through over these final few weeks to get some sort of idea of what they have. Gentry, in particular, has hit .286/.409/.533 in his last 31 games with a 16.5 percent walk rate and 19.7 percent strikeout rate. That generally translates. He needs to be up for the last few weeks of the season.

That outfield also seems to be a spot where they can find some upgrades pretty easily if they do end up wanting to go outside the organization. I think there’s a pretty good chance Olivares gets traded, but if he doesn’t, I’m okay with him slotting in as a DH at times and a bat off the bench if need be, even though he’s just average offensively. The problem is that free agency doesn’t offer a whole lot this year. Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto, Adam Duvall, Teoscar Hernandez, Kevin Kiermaier, Whit Merrifield, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, Hunter Renfroe and Eddie Rosario are your real options.

There are varying reasons why most won’t work. Bellinger is going to be incredibly costly. Conforto has had a fine enough year, but nothing special. Duvall has played well and has big power, but is he an everyday guy at this point? Hernandez is another who has been fine and also doesn’t play especially good defense. Kiermaier could be potentially interesting. Merrifield would be a fun story for a minute but there are so many questions there and I don’t think there’s much real about his offensive improvement other than batted ball luck. Pederson doesn’t seem likely to want to come to KC. Pham has been a distraction his whole career. Renfroe has a great arm but isn’t a good defender other than that. And Rosario is a terrible defender with an average-at-best bat.

So you look to the trade market and there are some options, but it’s hard to know exactly what. Could Lane Thomas be had in the winter? I don’t know, maybe? But what do the Royals have to offer that the Nationals would bite on? I’ve mentioned Anthony Santander before as a short-term solution. I guess that’d be fine. The Reds probably have more outfielders than spots in the outfield, so maybe there’s a fit there. The Cardinals are always trading outfielders, so I suppose they could find something. It’ll be a struggle, but there are definitely guys nobody is thinking about who will be available as well.

I think, ultimately, you end up with two of Melendez and Isbel or Waters in the outfield along with someone they’ve brought in from the outside or maybe one of the young guys who I’d like to see get a shot down the stretch. You maybe could see Nick Loftin or Samad Taylor get a shot too, but I think Taylor fits more as the utility guy on the bench if they don’t bring someone in there. I don’t know. I wonder if Loftin is part of a trade this winter? That’s not really what I’m trying to do here. I’ll get to that in the offseason. It feels like there’s surprisingly more settled than I expected, but also in a pretty unsettled way.

Let’s go down the rabbit hole of saying Perez is traded. I’d be interested in this lineup next year:

Garcia 3B
Massey 2B
Witt Jr. SS
Pasquantino 1B/DH
Free Agent/Trade OF
Free Agent/Trade DH/1B
Melendez LF
Fermin C
Waters CF

Man, that really shows that the lineup still looks okay without Salvy. You might say Fermin should be higher, and that’s fine. Maybe you prefer Witt at two. I’m good with that too, but just trying to take handedness into consideration. I don’t know. That feels like a potentially good lineup with the right decisions on guys brought in from outside the organization. I think I feel better about the offense than I expected when I started this exercise. That’s a nice thought heading into the weekend.

Just a note for the commenters. I know I’m usually pretty active responding, but I’ll be getting ready to travel and then traveling today, so I may not be around much.

Next week, I’ll get to the pitching, which is, well, less encouraging.