Finding Some Relief for the 2023 Royals

Last week I looked at starters, this week, relievers are on the menu!

I thought the Royals would have a pretty good bullpen in 2022. I was wrong. On paper, a group of Scott Barlow, Josh Staumont, Jake Brentz, Dylan Coleman and Amir Garrett as the top five looked like it should be pretty solid. In that group, there’s a ton of velocity and all but Coleman really have had success in the big leagues very recently. And things just went sideways.

Barlow was great again. Coleman ended up having a very good season. Staumont, who had learned to throw strikes with lower velocity in 2021, didn’t get the velocity back and lost the control. Brentz was hurt and eventually was lost for the year after giving up 15 runs on 11 his in 5.1 innings. And Garrett had his moments but still walked way too many.

Sure they got some surprises. Taylor Clarke turned out to be pretty darn good. Jose Cuas showed he might be useful moving forward. Wyatt Mills actually has some potential to help out as well. But overall, the bullpen was bad. They had the fourth-worst bullpen ERA in baseball, the seventh-worst FIP, the sixth-worst strand rate, the fifth-lowest strikeout rate, the highest walk rate and the highest WHIP in baseball. They were the second-hardest throwing bullpen in baseball, though, sandwiched between the Yankees and the Phillies. So at least they had that. But they need to make a move or two. Anne Rogers mentioned in a newsletter last week that they want to “acquire a closer-type reliever.”

It’s not always the top names who are “closer-type” relievers, of course, so I think that phrasing was pretty interesting. For example, Andres Munoz from the Mariners is a closer-type reliever, but he only had four saves. I think what we’ve seen over the last few weeks from the Royals is they’re finally embracing some other thought processes, so I’m hopeful that they aren’t blinded by saves with some prolific closers on the market this winter. Anyway, here are a few names to watch for, in alphabetical order. Not all will fit the closer-type description, but they could use plenty of help.

Carlos Estevez

No, this is not Ricky Vaughn or the guy who played him. Estevez has been in the Rockies organization since he was signed out of the Dominican Republic. Basically always a reliever, he relies mostly on a four-seam fastball that comes in hard. He averaged 97.5 MPH on that pitch last season and topped out at 100.9 MPH, topping 100 MPH 22 times in 2022. He isn’t an elite reliever or anything, but he feels like a pretty good candidate to maybe jump a bit to get out of Coors. He isn’t the closer-type, but if he can get back to more swing and miss on his slider and then ultimately throw it a bit more out of the thin air, he might be someone who can slot in nicely in the middle innings.

Michael Fulmer

I think we’ve seen the full Fulmer experience over the years. He looked like a starter who should be getting more strikeouts before shifting to the bullpen as a reliever who looked like he should maybe be getting more strikeouts. In 2022, he changed his repertoire quite a bit. He threw sliders 63.4 percent of the time. It’s a great pitch for him with a 30.2 percent whiff rate and a .342 SLG allowed. But instead of throwing his sinker 28.2 percent of the time like he did in 2021, he threw it 13.2 percent of the time and actually threw his four-seam fastball 15.2 percent of the time (also down from 2021, but not by much).

I just wonder if that was the right move for him. His velocity was down a fair amount, so maybe there was a reason and that might be a reason to stay away, but if he feels good (and a physical proves he’s right to feel good), he’s a guy who has pitched and pitched well in the back of a bullpen while throwing strikes. I wouldn’t give him more than two years, but I’d also feel pretty good that even if he’s only what he was in 2022 that he can be a valuable piece to a bullpen with maybe a higher level.

Tommy Kahnle

Kahnle has thrown 13.2 regular season innings in the last three years. Okay, so that’s a red flag. But he’s also generally been a very good reliever when he’s been on the mound since 2017. There was a hiccup in 2018, but he’s generally been someone who strikes guys out and limits walks. He threw his changeup more than three-fourths of the time in 2022 with the Dodgers in his limited outings and it was bonkers good. It was almost as good as it was in 2019 when it was even more bonkers good.

I don’t know if you can succeed by throwing a changeup that much in a full season, but I’d be interested to see how it worked for him. It helps that when he does throw a fastball, it sits in the mid-90s, but still, he’d be an interesting risk. If it hits, he’s one of your three best relievers and a great piece for a mid-season trade if you’re out of it. If it doesn’t, he likely doesn’t require that much money that you’re feeling foolish for doing it. He is coming off a very inexpensive two-year deal that included his year to rehab from Tommy John, so you might be looking at getting him for a pretty low guarantee and I’m sure some incentives could be added to sweeten that pot. I’d be interested.

Justin Lawrence

Lawrence isn’t a free agent, but he is another Rockies reliever who I think could be an under-the-radar move. The stuff is legit. The results are not. He walked 19 and struck out 17 in 16.2 innings in 2021, but that improved to 22 walks and 48 strikeouts in 42.2 innings in 2022. Why are the results so bad? His slider was excellent, but he gave up a ton of hits on his sinker. It’s also a bit concerning that his velocity dropped considerably year over year, but I’d absolutely take a shot on him in a deal. He obviously isn’t someone who you look at to be a bullpen savior, but if you’re trying to find someone before they pop, he’s someone I have some interest in.

Trevor May

May put up a 3.19 ERA with a 32.9 percent strikeout rate and 8.2 percent walk rate for the Twins from 2018 to 2020, which led him to a decent-sized two-year deal with the Mets. He was pretty good in 2021 with a few more walks, but plenty of strikeouts before missing a good chunk of the season in 2022. So this, like so many others, would be someone you’re hoping can bounce back. His fastball was just not good in 2022. The spin rate was similar enough, and his extension was similar enough as well, but the shape of it was slightly different. My question that I don’t know the answer to is if he can get back to what he was doing before. Because his slider remained an excellent weapon and so did his changeup in 2022. On a one-year deal, he’s another pitcher who could bring back something at the deadline as well, if the season gets to that point.

Rafael Montero

There is certainly risk here. Montero is 32 now (though next year is his age-32 season) and has pitched parts of eight seasons in the big leagues. He’s been above average by ERA just three times and he was flat out awful in 2021 with Seattle. Though to be fair, he did pitch six solid innings with Houston after he was traded there. But this season, he has been outstanding for the Astros and is one of their key late-inning relievers.

He throws a four-seamer at 96-97, a sinker at around 96 and then has a changeup and a slider. They aren’t all big swing-and-miss pitches, but they all do get whiffs and he’s shown an ability to get grounders the last two seasons while throwing first-pitch strikes. It’s also worth at least mentioning that his xERA in a terrible 2021 was 3.50. I wonder a bit if the price climbs a bit too high, but his ability to get grounders and some strikeouts would make him a nice fit with Barlow and Coleman.

Evan Phillips

Why would the Dodgers trade Phillips? I don’t know the answer to that question, but they generally believe they can create great relievers and they sell guys at the top of their value if they don’t believe players can continue down that path. Even if he does regress, though, it doesn’t mean he’d be a bad pickup. He’s not even arbitration-eligible until 2024, so even if them trading him isn’t the highest probability, I’m going to list him because he’d be my favorite player on this list after he gave up 33 hits in 63 innings with a 1.14 ERA and peripherals to almost match. Plus, the Royals drafted him in 2012 in the 33rd round, so they definitely liked him at one time.

He throws strikes, he gets whiffs and he also gets a pretty decent number of ground balls. Maybe that’s not quite as attractive with shift limitations, but even if ground ball pitchers are hurt some, everything else still makes Phillips a good proposition. What changed in 2022? It kind of started in 2021. He went from throwing about a quarter of his pitches as sliders to throwing 44 percent. Then this year, he cut his four-seam usage way down and added a cutter. The cutter was great, holding opponents to a .169 average and .200 SLG while his slider was a massive weapon for him. He still threw the four-seamer and his sinker, both at around 96, but he threw them a lot less. and using them less made them even more effective. What does it take to bring back four years of control of a reliever? That I don’t know, but if he’s available, I’d at least check in.

Brooks Raley

Everyone loves a good story, right? Raley pitched in 2012 and 2013 for the Cubs before spending time in the minors in 2014 and then the KBO from 2015 through 2019. He came back to the US with the Reds before being traded to the Astros, where he was solid and then had a tough 2021. Then he signed with the Rays and was fantastic this past season. He was very good against righties, but he absolutely destroyed lefties, allowing a .155/.200/.282 line. He did it by throwing strikes and getting his share of swings and misses as well. What he did not do is throw hard. He’s a slider/sinker/changeup/cutter guy who tops out at maybe 92. But the movement and spin on his slider makes him kind of a monster in the bullpen. He’s signed by the Rays through 2023 with a 2024 team option and he’s under team control through 2025, but it’s the Rays. They’ll make moves. And maybe Matt Quatraro’s familiarity with him will make him a target for the Royals.

Taylor Rogers

Here is a Proven Closer® on the list in Rogers, who has saved at least 30 games twice in his career. He’s also a risk. He struggled in 2022, and considering he had an ERA of 0.44 after pitching on May 27, it makes the final numbers even worse. From that point forward, he gave up 48 hits in 44 innings with 61 strikeouts and 15 walks. Okay, some of that doesn’t quite add up. The strikeouts were great. The control was good enough.

Why was he hit so hard? I don’t have the answer to that question. His slider was knocked around pretty good, so I’d guess it’s a location issue. I can vow to you that if the Royals sign him, I’ll dig in on that. But he still did get a ton of swings and misses, which makes me think there’s something left there. I wouldn’t give him any real money, but if he’d sign for the $6 million the Phillies gave Brad Hand last year or even a couple of years for $8 million like Jake Diekman got from the Red Sox, I’d be interested. If it doesn’t work out, it stinks, but oh well.

Will Smith

Hey look, it’s another Proven Closer®! Smith has 30+ saves in two big league seasons and he even got himself a big deal from the Braves prior to the 2020 season because of the first of those. And he was fine enough for the Braves, but not nearly as dominant as he was in Milwaukee after the Royals traded him for Nori Aoki. He’s currently the lone lefty in the Astros bullpen after getting traded there at the deadline as part of the Odorizzi deal. The thing about Smith is he’s still solid. He’s throwing more sliders than ever, but he got whiffs on 46.1 percent of swings this year. His fastball was a problem for him and has been for a few years now, so I don’t know if I love the idea, but a lefty who can get strikeouts and not walk the world is appealing. I’d say the contract would look similar to what Rogers would command.

Matt Strahm

Hey look, it’s another Former Royal®! He’s been pretty up and down in his career since the trade to the Padres. He was great in 2018, okay in 2019, great in 2020, terrible in a tiny sample in 2021 and then he was solid in 2022. It was interesting watching him in San Diego because after struggling with control in his short time in KC, his walk rate was 4.5 percent, 4.8 percent and 2.8 percent in 2019, 2020 and 2021. It jumped back up a bit this past year in Boston, but it was still manageable.

What I like about Strahm is that his fastball is a weapon. I think it’s easy to say that pitchers should be throwing it less and I agree, but I also think at some point, you have to be able to throw a fastball for a strike and not get hit hard on it. It got hit hard in 2021, but he allowed a .145 average and .291 SLG on it in 2022 with a 29.3 percent whiff rate. That plays. His velocity was back up on it last year too, so that probably played a big part in it being effective. His slider was maybe better than it had been in years with way more swings and misses on it and no home runs allowed. And his curve was excellent too. There are some concerns, of course, but if he can repeat a 26.9 percent strikeout rate and 8.8 percent walk rate, he’ll be just fine and would be a quality signing.

Robert Suarez

Why would the Padres trade one of their top setup men who struck out 61 in 47.2 innings and gave up just 29 hits? If they did it, it would be because teams trade relievers more often than we realize as Royals fans. Suarez is an incredible story. He pitched in Mexico and Japan before coming to the United States and pitching in the Padres system this year before getting the call to the big leagues and from May 4 on, he had a 1.42 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 38 innings. But he’ll be 32. There is surely a question of whether or not its sustainable and if they have that question, do they sell high? I honestly doubt it, but I also don’t doubt it quite enough to not include him here.

He sits in the upper-90s with his four-seamer and his sinker. Both were incredibly effective. But his changeup is really fun. He got whiffs on 40 percent of swings and opponents hit .089 off it. That’s just silly. It would obviously depend on the price, but if the Padres are trying to do that sell high thing, the Royals have a big enough need that they should at least check in to see what the cost would be on it.

Ryan Thompson

Thompson was a pick in the Rule 5 draft by the Rays in 2018 and has been a part of their bullpen since 2020. He’s thrown 103 innings for the Rays with a perfectly good 3.50 ERA and a solid 23.1 percent strikeout rate with a generally above average 6.5 percent walk rate. He’s a risk for a few reasons. One, he missed the end of the season due to a stress reaction in his right elbow. Two, he’ll be in his age-31 season and has limited innings. And three, he doesn’t throw terribly hard. His fastball comes in around 90 and he doesn’t spin it much. But also, his Stuff+ rating is 137, which is pretty darn good. So if he’s healthy, he may be a guy the Rays would move because they always have a roster crunch. While he profiles similarly to Cuas and Mills, the difference here is that he’s actually had success and has a career CSW% of 30.2 percent. I wouldn’t put him consistently at the end of games or anything, but I think he’d be a very nice middle relief pickup and Quatraro may have some familiarity here.

Relievers are inherently finicky. There’s a big risk with signing a free agent because year-to-year results can vary so much. It’s not that relievers can’t find consistency, but it’s just that many of them don’t. So while one may look good one year, the next, it looks like they should be on the scrap heap. Some of it is simply the small sample size. If a reliever throws 60 games and 70 innings but has three outings where they give up four runs each and then they give up 20 runs in their other 67 innings, they’re still running out a 4.12 ERA even though they had a 2.69 ERA in 57 of their 60 games.

Some of it is simply that it’s hard to come in year after year and put up good numbers when the situations change every game. I think you have to focus on stuff with these guys and hope your staff can get the most out of them. While we don’t know who that staff will be yet for the Royals, I think the Quatraro hire says that they’re willing to look at other organizations who have been far more successful than they have in pitching development at the big league level, so we can cautiously assume that’s where they’ll head. And keep in mind, this isn’t an exhaustive list. I never would have predicted Taylor Clarke would be signed by the Royals and he turned out well. They just need to add arms and the above are a good place to start in my mind.