First Was the Worst

Daniel Lynch struggled again to start a game and the Royals couldn't recover.

Oof. The game started off so promising with a Whit Merrifield single, but within minutes, just about everything that could go wrong did. The offense erasing the leadoff single in near record speed was one thing, but the way Daniel Lynch started the game was another animal and it’s a pattern that is something for just about every young Royals pitcher to work on this winter.

Let’s start with what actually happened yesterday. Lynch threw four straight balls to Myles Straw, all of them up high. The closest one probably missed the zone by only a couple inches, but he pretty clearly wasn’t quite finishing his delivery and that led to everything being way up. His first three pitches to the next batter, Oscar Mercado were also up before he got one down, but it was a buried slider that sent Straw to second on a wild pitch. And with the count 2-2, he buried two more sliders and Mercado had walked.

To Lynch’s credit, he went away from the four-seamer to Jose Ramirez and started him off with a sinker that I thought was actually very good. It was low, but it was a good pitch. But then he left a changeup up in the zone and Ramirez punched it to right-center. I’m actually not entirely sure how Straw didn’t score, but it loaded the bases for Franmil Reyes. Lynch started Reyes off with a fastball up (surprise!), then a slider that he got away with and then another fastball up. He finally got one down and I think Reyes was maybe a little surprised that it was in the zone and fouled it off. Two more buried sliders followed and the count was 3-2.

I think this is the point where things could have turned for Lynch because he put two fastballs in the zone. Granted, they were down the middle, which isn’t ideal, but he was getting through the pitch much better. Reyes fouled both off before a perfect four-seamer on the corner got him looking. He didn’t agree with it, but it was a strike and Lynch had his first out. Before I get to the disaster of the inning, I want to point out that just two of the first nine fastballs Lynch threw were below the very top of the zone. His 18th pitch was the one Reyes fouled off. I love a high fastball as much (or maybe even more) as the next guy, but you have to be close to the zone. After that Reyes at bat, he threw a couple more high, but he was much more reasonably near the zone.

Okay, now the disaster and then I’ll get to the actual point here, just a few paragraphs into this. He started Yu Chang off with a changeup, which I actually like given the way the fastball was looking. I would guess Chang would go to the plate looking up and looking fastball. But the changeup hung just a bit. It wasn’t terrible or anything, but it needed to be three inches lower or three inches farther outside (boy, I say that a lot about Royals pitchers, don’t I?). Chang hit a rocket, but it was right to Andrew Benintendi.

Okay, so first thing’s first. The grass was wet and I think Benintendi took a wrong step. It was unfortunate. He got his glove up, but hadn’t fully recovered, so the ball ricocheted off his glove, everyone scored and Chang ended up on third. It was called a triple. That’s not a triple. That is an error, without a doubt. Was it a hard play? Absolutely, but Benintendi was there and the ball hit his glove. Sure he slipped, but that should, and might someday, be an error. Lynch found his slider and had two strikeouts to end the inning.

This first inning stuff has to get figured out. This is what Lynch has allowed in the first inning:

Let’s break this down a little bit. It’s a small sample, but he’s basically turned every hitter into some combination of Stan Musial and Barry Bonds in the first inning. Even if that Chang triple is changed to an error, the line is still .322/.414/.712. Now, a lot of this damage was done in his one start against the White Sox when he couldn’t get out of the first, but this is now three out of four starts in September where he’s given up multiple runs. In the other start, he gave up a leadoff single and then hit the second batter before escaping.

First inning troubles are nothing new for pitchers. Tom Glavine famously struggled more in the first than any other inning. He had a 4.58 ERA in the first and gave up a line of .270/.354/.397 compared to a career ERA of 3.54 and batting line of .257/.319/.378. A simple search of pitchers with first inning issues yields a lot of famous names and excellent pitchers. So this isn’t something that you look at and say Lynch can never be anything, but it’s something that has to get figured out at some point. And it’s something that a lot of Royals pitchers have had problems with this season.

This is what the team has done in the first compared to the rest of the game:

And the young guys have struggled with it a lot.

Kris Bubic’s first inning ERA is 7.00 with a .306/.440/.611 line allowed.

The sample is especially small for Jackson Kowar, but he has a 20.65 ERA in the first with a .458/.556/.708 line allowed.

Brady Singer has had worse innings, but his 12.5 percent walk rate in the first is his highest of any inning by more than a percentage point.

Carlos Hernandez has actually been fantastic in the first. He’s given up one earned run in 10 innings and has allowed a .176/.263/.206 line. I wonder a little if working out of the bullpen has contributed some to that.

Either way, a lot of this has a chance to be statistical noise at the start of some promising careers, but these first innings are something the Royals are going to have to figure out one way or another because the number of holes this team has been in throughout the season. A better offense will help to forget being down early, but there have been way too many games that began with the team down multiple runs that they just couldn’t recover in.

The interesting thing is that I thought Lynch really pitched pretty well after that first inning. He ended up getting through six and allowed just four hits. He gave up a homer in the second to Ernie Clement on a fastball that was a bit off the plate, but apparently not quite enough, but ended up really handling his business. He gave the Royals a chance. And you can argue that maybe he ends up giving up just one or two if Benintendi makes that catch, but that ball was a rocket and the fact that the bases were loaded after three batters makes the first inning conversation relevant regardless of the end result.

He ended up getting a lot of popups and his slider allowed an average exit velocity of 51 MPH on three batted balls. Granted one was a bunt, but it was obviously giving the Indians trouble once he was able to locate it. If he can find a way to fix that fastball command, and maybe give it a little wrinkle, especially early, there’s something special in him. I hope the Royals can coax it out.

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Crown Jewels

Coleman Debuts

One of my more anticipated debuts came last night after Lynch exited following the sixth and that was the debut of Dylan Coleman. You might recall that he was the player to be named later in the Trevor Rosenthal deal. If you’re a subscriber to The Athletic, Alec Lewis wrote a great article about him last month and how he found the velocity and all that. It’s worth a read. I remember back in late May or early June, a scout I know was in Northwest Arkansas and was just giddy to see Coleman and he wasn’t disappointed during that series, which has had me even more excited for him ever since.

And just like the scout wasn’t disappointed, neither was I last night. Coleman came out firing bullets. His first pitch was 99.9 MPH. He took something off to get a called strike on a 99.7 MPH fastball next and then was just really generally in control. He ended up working a scoreless inning with a hit allowed. I think he has better days in him, but when you can throw this…

…and then this too…

…you’re going to find yourself some opportunities. The velocity was definitely fun to see.

I think that if you’re talking about a lockdown Royals bullpen in 2022, the odds are that either Coleman or Josh Staumont end up at the back end of it to close down games. I really like Scott Barlow, more than many, but I just think he’s better served in the sixth through eighth innings rather than the last line of defense. Coleman will have his hiccups, but that’s a nice and easy delivery, and to have control of 97+ is a great weapon to pair with that nasty slider.

Dozier Rocking Again

I know I mentioned Dozier yesterday, but I want to get into him just a little bit more today. He hit another home run yesterday.

And now he’s sustained hitting well for quite awhile. I mentioned the numbers yesterday, but I’ll lay them out again:

Since June 28: 280 PA, .263/.332/.441

Second Half: 229 PA, .264/.336/.443

September: 70 PA, .288/.371/.627

I use June 28 because that was around the time that he mentioned getting back to himself and the results showed that he was getting there. The second half is because that’s just a good marker that is used and September is because that’s where the power has really picked up for him.

Would you believe he now has a higher OPS than Carlos Santana? Of course you would. You read Inside the Crown and also, you know, have eyes, so you know how much Santana has struggled. But either way, Dozier has surpassed him there finally. And his average is even one point higher than Santana’s. I don’t mean to say this to bash Santana, but it’s really nice to see Dozier finally figure some things out.

Whether you agree with the contract he got or not, he got it, so he’s going to be a part of this team for at least a couple more years and if he can turn things around and be a nice bat somewhere in a future Royals lineup, that’s the best case scenario at this point. He’s finally doing what I thought he would before the season. It’s too late, but it’s at least nice to see.