Fitting Together the 2024 Royals Roster

Why not start earlier and earlier to see who is going to make the Royals, right?

With so many moves this winter, I found myself trying to figure out how the roster will piece itself together once the bell rings on March 28 to start the season. So I sat down and started to map out who played where and then realized this is the sort of thing that I should be putting here in the ol’ newsletter. Usually when I do these roster projections, I divide them up by position players and pitchers because it’s both extra content and they get really long. But for this first one that’s only a semi-projection due to the amount of time left in the offseason, I’ll put everyone together and include their 2023 stats.

Catchers

Salvador Perez - .255/.292/.422, 23 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB, 86 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR

Freddy Fermin - .281/.321/.461, 9 HR, 32 RBI, 0 SB, 108 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR

This is the easiest group to project right now. If you look at the numbers, you’d think the starter and backup should be flipped and maybe 2024 will show that to be true, but it’s Salvador Perez. He’s going to be the starter. I do wonder if he ends up catching the majority of the games, though. Fermin is a good defender behind the plate and a lineup with both him and Salvy’s power is helpful for this club if Fermin proves 2023 was no fluke.

Outside looking in: Tyler Cropley, Logan Porter

What could change?

There’s still the possibility of the Royals moving Perez, but I don’t think so at this point. Barring injury, I don’t think there’s a whole lot that will stop Fermin from being on this roster after the season he had last year. That could change as the season goes on, of course, and there are always injury concerns with catchers.

Infielders

Vinnie Pasquantino - .247/.324/.437, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 0 SB, 103 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR

Michael Massey - .229/.274/.381, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 6 SB, 73 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

Maikel Garcia - .272/.323/.358, 4 HR, 50 RBI, 23 SB, 84 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

Bobby Witt Jr. - .276/.319/.495, 30 HR, 96 RBI, 49 SB, 115 wRC+, 5.7 fWAR

Garrett Hampson - .276/.349/.380, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 5 SB, 101 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR

Nick Loftin - .323/.368/.435, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB, 118 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR

Outside looking in: Mike Brosseau, Cam Devanney, Devin Mann, Nick Pratto, Samad Taylor

The starters are pretty well set to start the year with Massey on the shakiest but still solid ground. Where this gets tough is if the Royals do sign someone with versatility who can hit from the left side as they’ve mentioned wanting. I think then maybe it becomes an interesting competition between Massey and Loftin (and maybe the newcomer) in the spring to see who is the starting second baseman and who starts the year in AAA.

While Pasquantino isn’t a standout defensively, this group is going to pick it, which is really nice. Massey is a better defender at second than Loftin, but Loftin is good enough that he wouldn’t derail the defense. And Hampson is a nice super sub who will also likely get some time in the outfield. Ultimately, there are a few really strong depth options that they have with minor league deals and trades along with holdovers in the organization like Pratto and Taylor. If it gets to the depth, they’re going to lose something, but they’d be starters if that wasn’t the case.

What could change?

I still think a trade is possible from this group. When the Royals first signed Hampson, I assumed Loftin was the one to go given that the Dodgers had been interested in him in the past. But so far, I haven’t heard anything on that front. Garcia also makes sense as a part of a trade if another team values highly enough as a shortstop that he can bring back something that helps the club. I’m not sure I’d predict it happening at this point, but it’s a likely option. I also think there’s no guarantee Massey or Loftin make the Opening Day roster, so if you’re looking at what can change in March, a rough spring could hurt either or both of them and help out some of that depth.

Outfielders

MJ Melendez - .235/.316/.398, 16 HR, 56 RBI, 6 SB, 92 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR

Kyle Isbel - .240/.282/.380, 5 HR, 34 RBI, 7 SB, 75 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR

Hunter Renfroe - .233/.297/.416, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 0 SB, 92 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR

Nelson Velazquez - .235/.302/.586, 17 HR, 34 RBI, 0 SB, 132 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR

Drew Waters - .228/.300/.377, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 16 SB, 82 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR

Outside looking in: Dairon Blanco, Nate Eaton, Tyler Gentry, John Rave

You ever heard of the island of misfit toys? The Royals outfield has a pretty wide range of outcomes, but it’s easy to see this going very far south. Isbel is an outstanding defender in center and Waters has played well defensively as well, but there are going to be some defensive issues with Melendez, Renfroe and Velazquez all on the roster. Renfroe and Melendez can both really throw, so they have that going for them and Melendez is pretty athletic, so maybe he can use his first offseason as a full-time outfielder to get better, but based on what we know, yikes. And the issue isn’t necessarily just bad defense, but it’s bad defense without the offensive numbers to back it up.

Melendez had a very good second half, and there’s reason to believe in it, but he also has a career wRC+ of 95. Renfroe had a 118 wRC+ between 2021 and 2022 in almost 1,100 plate appearances, but that backed up quite a bit in 2023 and he’ll be 32 in 2024. That’s an age when players are often in decline. And Velazquez clearly has power, but the track record isn’t there and he struggles to hit for average and with swing decisions, so it’s hard to predict with any certainty that he’ll continue to hit the ball out of the park. Then when you add in Isbel and Waters, who do play defense well, they haven’t hit either. I could see this group hitting something like 110 homers (mostly from Melendez, Renfroe and Velazquez) or being almost entirely replaced in 2025.

What could change?

Here’s where I’m still predicting a trade. I haven’t deleted that Melendez trade newsletter draft yet because I just think it makes too much sense. Maybe it doesn’t happen, but they have too many no-glove corner outfielders and not enough guys who can hit and catch it. Can they find someone to fit that? I don’t know, but I still do think Melendez goes. Waters could also get moved, which would open up a center field platoon for Blanco, but there’s a darkhorse to get traded in Velazquez if a team really buys the power and pays a premium. The Royals like him a lot, but everyone has a price.

Starting Pitchers

Cole Ragans - 96.0 IP, 7-5, 3.47 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 28.8% K, 10.5% BB, 2.2 fWAR

Michael Wacha - 134.1 IP, 14-4, 3.22 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 22.4% K, 7.8% BB, 2.6 fWAR

Seth Lugo - 146.1 IP, 8-7, 3.57 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 23.2% K, 6.0% BB, 2.8 fWAR

Brady Singer - 159.2 IP, 8-11, 5.52 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 18.9% K, 7.0% BB, 1.9 fWAR

Jordan Lyles - 177.2 IP, 6-17, 6.28 ERA, 5.62 FIP, 16.0% K, 6.0% BB, 0.2 fWAR

Outside looking in: Mason Barnett, Chandler Champlain, Daniel Lynch IV, Anthony Veneziano, Angel Zerpa

I don’t think there’s a more set group than these five at this time. I heard some thought that the Royals were asking around about who might take on Lyles if they included some money, but that apparently hasn’t gone anywhere. It’s an interesting group because the only one who has a walk rate higher than league average is the only one who strikes out a ton of batters. And even with Ragans, his walk rate of 9.4 percent with the Royals wasn’t far from average. So they’re going to throw strikes. And even including Singer, their FIP numbers were impressive to the point that you feel like the Royals rotation is actually going to keep them in games.

I also really like the depth they have now because you’ve got pitchers who were once the types to be expected to pitch well enough every fifth day who are now the sixth, seventh and eighth starters. Veneziano doesn’t have much experience, but Lynch and Zerpa both have big league experience in multiple seasons. For those guys to be the extras is really encouraging. And I know I’m a broken record, but I think Barnett, Champlain and David Sandlin all could be knocking on the big league door by midseason, which is really nice to see from a group that has been lacking so much in recent years.

What could change?

The Lyles trade talk, I’m assured, was very real. There was an interview with JJ Picollo around the time I had heard it that he said there wasn’t really a spot on this roster for Zack Greinke at this time. The first thing I thought of was that there would be if Lyles wasn’t there. So while I don’t see that happening right now, weird things happen in March when starters go down and teams get desperate for innings. I maintain that Lyles as your fifth starter isn’t really the worst thing in the world, but getting something for Lyles is even better than whatever he does on the mound. I also thought that Singer might go at some point, but I don’t think so anymore. I think, for better or for worse, they’re fine to head into the season with this group of five, but the right offer can change things.

Relievers

Will Smith - 57.1 IP, 2-7, 4.40 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 24.3% K, 7.5% BB, 1.1 fWAR

James McArthur - 23.1 IP, 1-0, 4.63 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 25.6% K, 2.2% BB, 0.5 fWAR

Nick Anderson - 35.1 IP, 4-0, 3.06 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 25.5% K, 6.4% BB, 0.9 fWAR

Chris Stratton - 82.2 IP, 2-1, 3.92 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 24.0% K, 7.4% BB, 1.1 fWAR

John McMillon (A, A+, AA) - 51.1 IP, 7-3, 2.10 ERA, 1.74 FIP, 45.3% K, 9.5% BB

Tyler Duffey (2022) - 44.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 21.1% K, 8.1% BB, -0.5 fWAR

Jake Brentz (2022) - 5.1 IP, 0-3, 23.63 ERA, 8.36 FIP, 23.7% K, 26.3% BB, -0.3 fWAR

Matt Sauer (A+/AA) - 70.1 IP, 3.33 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 30.3% K, 11.0% BB

Outside looking in: Dan Altavilla, Jonathan Bowlan, Luis Cessa, Christian Chamberlain, Steven Cruz, Carlos Hernandez, Will Klein, Sam Long, Lynch, Alec Marsh, Walter Pennington, Josh Taylor, Veneziano, Beck Way, Zerpa

I have zero confidence in anyone on this list other than Smith, McArthur, Anderson and Stratton. And Anderson’s injury concerns are so high that he could easily be hurt by the time the season starts. I think McMillon has too much upside to send back to the minors. He’s probably their best reliever if he’s healthy. I have Brentz in there right now because they’ve stuck with him this long, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that goes to Taylor or one of Veneziano or Zerpa because they want a lefty. And I included Duffey on the roster because I do think one of the non-roster invitees makes it. Truthfully, it’s a crapshoot there.

But this group, like the rotation has something in common with the rotation that they have a history of limiting walks. There’s some legitimate stuff in this unit too with Smith’s slider, McArthur’s curve and others. I think there’s every chance in the world that this ends up being a top-10 bullpen in baseball in 2024, but that will happen if the young guys step up. Like I wrote the other day, if Smith and Stratton are two of the best three relievers, the bullpen is somewhere between average and bad. If they’re the fourth and fifth best, we’re talking about a pretty good bullpen I think. McArthur, McMillon and one of the other younger guys stepping up can make that happen.

What could change?

Everything? I think they could still go out and sign someone. I think Sauer could be a disaster in spring training and they don’t keep him. They could make a trade that includes a reliever coming back. There’s just so much volatility in this unit that it’s kind of silly to put anything on paper about them until we see action in Surprise.

It’s only January 11, which means an entire month of offseason remains before an entire six weeks of spring training follows. So many things can happen between now and then, but I think this is how the roster shapes up today with a few spots truly up for grabs at this point. It’s interesting to see the evolution of this roster and I’ll be curious if there are any moves to come before I start doing my usual spring training roster projections next month.