Inside the Crown's Top 20 Royals Prospects 2024
The Royals system is universally disliked, but there are some interesting names and some bright spots.
For a long time, I wasn’t going to put a top prospect list out there because it’s honestly kind of depressing. The Royals system was top-five or top-10 (depending on where you looked) heading into the 2022 season, but has fallen to the bottom of the league in most rankings. And with good reason. They graduated guys like Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto and Vinnie Pasquantino and the prospects who were supposed to rise up to replace them on lists have generally struggled. It has led to the 493rd discussion of if they’re drafting poorly or developing poorly. Or both.
I think it’s both, but Royals drafts have generally been well-regarded, with some notable exceptions. I’d lean more to the development side as the bigger issue and they’ve acted to change how they work in the minors, which is great. But it would be a disservice to put all the blame on one spot because having a bad system is a full team effort. This won’t be a popular opinion, but I also think there’s some bias against the Royals in prospect rankings. Think of it as the anti-Sam Miller tweet about the Rays.
If we’re talking Royals prospects, I think there are people out there who subconsciously immediately downgrade their opinions on them. Maybe some aren’t subconscious, but I do think that bias exists. This isn’t me throwing shade on prospect analysis because these are human beings and when you see a system fail as much as the Royals system has failed, why would you believe in it? It’s a hole the Royals have created for themselves and need to climb out of. Hopefully that happens soon, but I do think that’s at play.
I promise I’m actually going to get to my rankings here in a second, but I do want to relay something from a scout I talk to pretty regularly. He believed the Royals system from 9-30 is borderline top-10 in baseball. But 1-8 is like 28th best. What does that mean? It means that the depth in the system is actually quite good, but there simply isn’t star power. Can that change? Of course it can, but until it does, the Royals are stuck in a spot where guys like Nick Loftin, who is a nice player, is one of the top prospects in the organization.
Others who should be at the top simply haven’t performed enough to merit their spots even though they generally are there within this particular organization. But there is top-end talent and things can change awfully fast. The Brewers are a great example. They’re universally seen as one of the best systems in baseball. MLB Pipeline had them ranked 25th prior to the 2022 season. It isn’t easy, but it’s certainly possible.
Okay, enough rambling. Let’s get to the list.
Blake Mitchell, C - This pick got a ton of flack last season, and I get it. High school catchers are probably the riskiest demographic of players to take. On top of that, they passed up some college bats who are far less risky. On top of that, they saw those college bats come out of the gates on fire while Mitchell remained in Arizona and struggled in a lot of ways. I think the demographic talk is a little overdone as I wrote at the time, and I think that’s lazy analysis for the pick. First-round high school catchers have actually performed relatively well in recent years and I think that’s a credit to improved scouting. Mitchell is a legitimate prospect who has an excellent eye, pretty insane power and some very real bat speed. There is some swing-and-miss in his game right now, so that’s something that will need to develop, but he’s also good enough to stay behind the plate from all I’ve heard, so he’s a worthy top prospect. I will say that in the first iteration of this list, Mitchell was not at the top, but I heard some great things about him over the last couple of weeks from offseason work and that pushed him to the top in my mind.
ETA: 2027Tyler Gentry, OF - I’m a huge fan of Gentry, but this is a spot where I’d really hope there would be a few players between number one and him. Still, Gentry is a good player. He has above average, but not elite, power from the right side. He has a big arm in the outfield, but he’s probably an average defender other than that. He has a good eye, hits the ball hard and doesn’t have a big problem with whiffs. I don’t think you look to him to be a middle of the order bat, but if he’s hitting sixth, your lineup is probably pretty good. Maybe you can make an argument for him hitting second because of his ability to get on base too.
ETA: 2024Frank Mozzicato, LHP - It was a tale of two seasons for Mozzicato. He dominated in his return to low-A when he was a bit heavier to start the season. Okay, heavy is relative. He’s fairly slight, which was a reason why his velocity dropped as the season went on. He also had an injury where it was reported he collided with a teammate. Before that injury, he’d thrown 46.1 innings in nine games with 74 strikeouts and 25 walks and a 2.14 ERA. Afterward, he made three starts in Columbia, giving up eight runs in 10 innings. Then he was promoted to Quad Cities where he threw 36.2 innings in nine games with a 7.12 ERA, 45 strikeouts and 33 walks. Which Mozzicato shows up in 2024? If he can be the early-season version and can keep that up throughout the year, he’s a big league starter and probably relatively soon. If he’s the guy who can’t throw strikes and can’t hold velocity, I just don’t know where he is. He’s in this spot because the upside remains, but he’s another example of a weak top of the system.
ETA: 2026Cayden Wallace, 3B - Wallace is interesting in that he reminds me a bit of Gentry in that he isn’t likely to wow you in any way, but he’s a nice player. His swing is super easy, which makes it repeatable, but he hasn’t consistently made the best contact as a minor leaguer. That said, it does look like there’s room for more from him when you watch him. Ultimately, he has above-average raw power and if he can access that in games, I think there’s a little more upside than it seems like to this point, though I do see potential for a regular third baseman a la Joe Randa. I remember there being some concerns over his defense at third when he was drafted, but he’s a good defender with a strong arm, so he can absolutely stick there.
ETA: 2025Ben Kudrna, RHP - It wouldn’t surprise me if Kudrna makes the biggest jump of any prospect in the Royals system in 2024. But it also wouldn’t surprise me if we continue to be a little confused by him. The stuff is there. He has the makings of a 60 fastball and a 60 slider with an above average changeup and above average command. But the strikeouts just haven’t been there. He’s struck out enough hitters to have success, but without them, his upside is very limited. Can he be a number five? Sure, probably. I think without getting more whiffs, he might end up ticketed for the bullpen to see if the stuff plays up even more. But if he does put it together, I see number three potential here and a chance to be one of those glue guys in a rotation.
ETA: 2026Ramon Ramirez, C - Ramirez began popping up on lists to watch somewhere over the summer and he’s been talked about ever since. He’s got a really nice swing that is geared toward power and he is fine against velocity. His exit velocity numbers were intriguing as well, but he hasn’t even played stateside yet, so it’s probably wise to temper expectations. His defense got better as the season progressed and there’s a chance he can turn himself into a really good backstop. I’ll be curious to see if he gets to low-A in 2024 or if he spends the whole year in rookie ball. I’d guess he finds his way to full-season ball and that’s when we can really start evaluating him and seeing if him at six is aggressive or will be looked at as painfully low.
ETA: 2028Nick Loftin, INF - We had the chance to see Loftin at the big league level for a few weeks at the end of the season, and what he showed was what I expected. He has a nice approach at the plate. He has a solid swing. He can handle second base and third base and actually looked pretty solid at first base as well in limited action. I was hoping for a bigger jump for him in 2023, but he showed that I think he can be a nice piece on a winning club. I do think there’s more power potential than he showed, so maybe he’s able to get to a role that allows him to be one of those glue guys on a team.
ETA: 2023Gavin Cross, OF - What a disaster 2023 was for Cross. His numbers in 2022 after he was drafted were bonkers good. There was one warning sign of an inflated strikeout rate, but he hit the snot out of the ball and worked walks, so it was something to look past. But it all fell apart for him in 2023 and he hit just .203/.298/.378 in high-A and in two games at AA before his season was cut short. He worked hard on being more balanced in the box during the instructional league and scouts who saw him thought he looked considerably better. I’m not going to give up on Cross. He has immense power, can handle center field (though probably not at Kauffman Stadium) and is pretty solid on the bases. I don’t know that anything from Cross would surprise me this season. Could he become a top-20 prospect in all of baseball? Absolutely! Could he be out of the Royals top-20? Oh yeah. I’m interested to see where this goes for him.
ETA: 2025Blake Wolters, RHP - I struggled with where to put Wolters on this list. I think there’s an argument for top-four because he has big stuff and really impressed in instructs. I ended up settling here even though I feel like this has a chance to look silly by summer. He has a great build for a starter at 6’4” and 210 lbs. and has a fastball that can touch 98/99 with ride. He also has a nasty high-spin slider and a changeup that is already decent and has a chance to be well above average. If you’re looking for someone who could become a number one starter in this system, it’s Wolters. Obviously that’s never the likely path, but it’s possible with the stuff that he has. I’ve had multiple people tell me that he’s a Dodgers-type pitching prospect, which I’ll take every day of the week.
ETA: 2027Javier Vaz, OF/2B - Vaz is going to be a cult favorite in the system very quickly. He walked 64 times and struck out 50 times between high-A and AA while stealing 30 bases and getting caught just three times. He also played a solid enough second and a solid enough outfield, though his arm gives him a lot of limitations. Still, he has a quick swing, barely ever whiffs and has more power than you’d realize from looking at him. My concern here is that he still doesn’t have enough and we see him have the same issues we’ve seen from guys like Nicky Lopez and Nick Madrigal in the majors. I’d imagine he’ll get a shot at AAA at some point in 2024 after finishing strong in AA, so we might get to find out sooner than later.
ETA: 2025Mason Barnett, RHP - I love Barnett. He has four pitches, throws strikes and sits 94-98 with his fastball. His changeup is really good. His slider and curve are both okay and sometimes can actually impact each other negatively, so it might end up being wise to scrap one, though I definitely wouldn’t say I’m there with him yet. There’s some pretty real reliever risk here, but I also see a starter who can hold velocity into starts and can throw strikes who saw improvement as the season went on. He’s going to be in camp as a non-roster invite and while he doesn’t have much of a shot to make the team, he could contribute at some point during the summer.
ETA: 2024David Sandlin, RHP - If you asked me why I put Barnett ahead of Sandlin, the best I can do is shrug. I see them very similarly. Sandlin was having a really nice first full professional season when an oblique injury ended his season in July. He’s efficient and he throws strikes and he does it with a repertoire that I think can stick as a starter. He’s got a good fastball that can get up to 97/98 along with a slider that’s really good. He also has a curve and a changeup that’s probably more of a split-change. There are some I’ve talked to who think there’s no chance he starts, but I think that’s overly pessimistic. Yes, I think there’s a chance (maybe even a good one) that he ends up a reliever, but I like what he brings to the table.
ETA: 2024Chandler Champlain, RHP - If you asked me why I put Barnett and Sandlin ahead of Champlain, the best I can do is shrug. I see them very similarly. Champlain came over in the Andrew Benintendi deal at the deadline in 2022 and was pretty bad after the trade. But 2023 was a new year and he was very good. Similar to Kudrna, the issue with Champlain is that he just doesn’t strike out enough batters. His fastball is 94-97ish with life, which is great, and he has a good slider and a good curve. The repertoire is absolutely there. He commands his pitches too. If the changeup he’s been working with comes along, I think there’s a chance he can be the best of this group of three. If it doesn’t, I do still think he’s a backend starter.
ETA: 2024Carson Roccaforte, OF - I really like Roccaforte. The Royals took him in the second round last year and some of what he did didn’t surprise me, but some things did. I knew he had a good eye, but he walked even more than I expected. But I also was surprised by the strikeouts because he does have good bat-to-ball skills. I didn’t love the pick in the second round because I just don’t necessarily see the power, but he does have the frame to suggest he could add some over time. Still, he’s a solid defender and can handle center though he may be better suited for a corner spot. And I think there’s a role for him in the big leagues as a second division outfielder or a really good fourth outfielder.
ETA: 2026Spencer Nivens, OF - I’m really excited to see what Nivens can do in 2024. He was a high performer at Missouri State, showing an advanced approach at the plate that carried over to the professional side. The approach carried over with 23 walks and 20 strikeouts in 122 plate appearances, though the results weren’t really there with just a .184 average and five extra base hits. Still, there’s a lot in the bat because of his lack of chase, his lack of whiff and his ability to pull the ball for legitimate power. The bat is going to need to play because he’s a corner outfielder and not an elite one, but I think it can play and 2024 is a big year for him because he could be a quick mover. I think he and Roccaforte are somewhat interchangeable here. Roccaforte is a center fielder, so there’s value even if his bat doesn’t fully develop. I like Nivens a lot, but if his bat doesn’t get there, there’s not a lot of value.
ETA: 2026Austin Charles, 3B - There was a point in 2023 when I thought Charles was on his way to breaking into the top-100. I may have gotten a bit too enamored with a hot streak, but the talent is very clear there for him. And if I’m being honest, I’m still pretty surprised that he ended up signing as a 20th round pick. He has big-time raw power that he’s gotten to in games a little bit, but not enough yet. He’s very tall with long arms, so there are swing-and-miss issues that are not surprising in the least, but need to be ironed out. He’s still kind of a shortstop and scouts have told me that he’s a lot smoother there than expected, but I’d guess he ultimately moves to third where he should be a plus defender. It’s probably worth noting that he just started focusing on the position player side full time this past season, so there is some serious growth potential. Of any player on this list after the top eight, Charles is the one I’d be least surprised if he was at number one in the future.
ETA: 2027Carter Jensen, C - Jensen may have the best eye for the zone of any hitter in the Royals organization. He probably does, but I’m working on not making definitive statements that I can’t fully back up. So he obviously works a walk, but he does have some Nick Pratto in him in that he can get passive waiting for the perfect pitch and then gets into two-strike counts. That’s how you have a swinging strike rate of 8.8 percent but a strikeout rate of 24.1 percent. To put it in perspective, 80 hitters had a swinging strike rate of 8.8 percent or lower in 300+ plate appearances last year and just 19 of them had a strikeout rate of 20 percent or higher. Only three had a strikeout rate higher than Jensen’s from 2023.
ETA: 2026Trevor Werner, 3B - I think there’s at least a chance that I’m overreacting a bit to a small sample from after the draft, but Werner was fantastic after getting picked in the seventh round last year. He hit .354/.459/.699 and only swung and missed 8.5 percent of the time. Like Jensen, he still struck out more than you’d expect with that swinging strike rate, but when he swung and made contact, the ball went far, as you can see from his .345 ISO. The ability is obviously there, but one thing that I kept seeing and hearing is that he is a worker, and if you’ve read my work for any amount of time, you know I’m a sucker for a player willing to do the work to be great. It’s why I’ll never fully give up on guys like Daniel Lynch IV or Kris Bubic. Werner has a big, big arm, so he fits at third in that regard and I haven’t heard anything to suggest he isn’t a good enough defender to have to move, but he is athletic enough that if they wanted to shift him to a corner outfield spot, I think he could make it there.
ETA: 2026Hunter Owen, LHP - Owen is interesting because if he can show a jump in velocity, there’s some real upside in him. His fastball is low-90s now with decent enough carry and he has a couple secondary pitches that fit with a big league starter. He’s a big guy and he’s left-handed, which will help him if he can stay healthy. That’s the big issue; he needs to stay healthy. He throws strikes and he can get swings and misses. If he can stay on the mound, I see a four or five starter with the upside of a three and maybe more if he can add that velocity.
ETA: 2026Jared Dickey, OF - I struggle with Dickey and had a conversation yesterday about him that made me realize why. Everything about the performance says he’s a top prospect. I just don’t see it with my eyes. So I guess 20 is about the right spot for that profile. On the field, he will chase, but he doesn’t strike out that much, which is a testament to his ability to make contact. I do think there’s power in there even though he didn’t show it much in his small sample after being drafted. I just don’t know here, but I have to make a call and I’m sticking with him here.
ETA: 2026
Going through this exercise, I do find myself liking the depth in the system. I like the 11-13 of Barnett, Sandlin and Champlain and think there’s likely one or two big league starters among those three. I think Charles could get some serious helium this year if he can make more contact. Wolters could be a top-50 prospect in baseball by the end of the year with the stuff he has. Owen is such an interesting pitcher to me because he could rise toward the top of a good system pretty easily. There are so many strong possibilities.
If Cross and Mitchell and Mozzicato bounce back and perform to their draft position and someone else like one of the above steps up, this farm system goes from good depth and no top-end talent to actual top-end talent and depth. I don’t pretend to follow the other systems closely enough to know where that would put them in rankings among other teams, but I think it should get them into a much better position at least.
To this point, the unfortunate truth is we haven’t been given a lot of reason to believe that things will change for them. I did write about the pitching development changes having impacts from a Statcast standpoint earlier this winter. That’s great to see. It’s nice to see guys like the starters I’ve mentioned sitting in the system as potential big leaguers as early as this season. I am going to be paying very close attention to the bats this season. Progress on that front changes the calculus, but it’s only fair to be skeptical until the results are shown. I’ve talked to enough people who like what the Royals have done about development to have some optimism, but there is a limit to that for me.
So this is a rough overall system with some bright spots and depth pieces that can be part of a good team. Their success this season is if they can get the high-end talent back on track to pair with the depth to be a group of prospects who can help build a pipeline and get the Royals back to winning consistently.
Great job, almost exhausting. Details.
There's just enough "if things go right he could be a top prospect" in this article for me to want to feel toxically optimistic that the development changes will work out, so thank you for lifting my spirits this morning! :)