ItC Mailbag: Front Office Follies, Draft Questions and the Upcoming Deadline
We've had some time to refresh and now let's get to some questions.
It’s always been weird to me that the All-Star break has been the delineation between the first and second half of the season, but they’re well into the second half based on the number of games played. They’re 92 games into a 162 game season, so they actually only have about 43 percent of the season left to play. But they call it the half, so here we go as we head into that second half. The season started as a disaster. They were 5-5 after 10 games, but when the first 1/6 of the season was completed, they were 9-18. Then they were 17-37 when the second 1/6 finished.
Since then, it’s been better. They’re 19-19 and were 13-14 in the next 1/6 of the season. You might have figured out that I like to break the season into sixths and they’re now 6-5 in the first 11 games of that fourth sixth. That’s kind of a weird sentence. But however you slice it, they’ve been better. But is it enough to make people a little happier? Thank you for the great questions, now let’s get to them to take a look.
Asked and answered.
I’m assuming what Jason is asking about is why the Royals seem to make statements that indicate they don’t expect us to check on anything. This all started on May 16 when the Royals fired Terry Bradshaw and brought Alec Zumwalt and Mike Tosar to the big league level and Dayton Moore was asked about Cal Eldred’s job security (which I’ll get to here). And then there was a steady stream of public comments that led me to finally get so fed up that I actually wrote about it.
The latest, I believe, is when Dayton Moore spoke to Soren Petro after the news regarding Royals players not being able to go to Toronto broke. He indicated that some teams have used the IL and options/DFAs to make their numbers seem a little smaller. I looked it up, and that is decidedly not accurate. I found three players placed on the IL ahead of their series in Toronto and six players either optioned or DFA’d, so clearly that isn’t something that’s happened.
Look, I’m not a psychiatrist or a psychologist or anything that actually studies the human brain. I did do quite well in Psych AP in high school. Coach Claypool, if you’re reading this, you were awesome. But I also get the impression from Moore that he believes he always does the right thing. And with that, it seems to me that he’s assuming others don’t, which led to the statement about other teams using the IL and options. That’s just my hunch, I don’t know for sure, but it sure seems like something that is at least plausible.
But I maintain what I wrote back at the end of May, and the Royals need to stop saying ridiculous things to justify what they do (and don’t do). This is a fanbase with almost universal access to the internet, so they need to stop pretending like everything said can’t be refuted. I think this has largely calmed down over the last few weeks with the most recent exception. And the biggest thing is what I’ve said all along - actions speak louder than words. So far their action has been inaction, but they can say whatever they want to say if they do the right thing here in the next couple of weeks heading to the trade deadline.
Obviously we’re talking about if the Royals make a move to relieve Mike Matheny of his duties. There are a ton of candidates out there, and I know you specifically mentioned outside the organization, but the first one I’d bring up is Alec Zumwalt. Yes, he’s handling the hitting right now, but I have heard from more than a couple of people that he would make an exceptional manager. And the organization hasn’t been shy about saying how many different roles he could fill. Manager is absolutely one of them.
If I’m going outside the organization, I’m going to look to both the Rays and Astros at their bench coaches. Matt Quatraro with the Rays is a very real candidate and will be one for a number of teams this winter. And Joe Espada will be as well. He’s been with the Astros for awhile now and I imagine he’ll get the nod if Dusty Baker decides to retire, but if he’s out there, he’s someone I’d look toward.
I like the idea of Washington as well. A few others:
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Christenson
Hensley Meulens
Eddie Perez
Eduardo Perez
Will Venable
And I honestly still think Pedro Grifol would make a very good big league manager too.
Let’s move on to the draft. This isn’t a terribly easy question to answer because there are two types of upside. The first is the type that is reasonable to expect while the second is the type that maybe is a lot more of a dream but still exists. And with a draft where the Royals took 17 college players and three high school players, the highest dream upside likely resides in those high school players. HOWEVER! The three high school players they took were their last three selections, which theoretically limits the upside, though I have heard good things about Milo Rushford. HOWEVER! They did take a player with their last pick who very easily could have been a pick in the first three or four rounds - Austin Charles.
Charles is a two-way player and the Royals listed him as such. He’s 6’6” and a shortstop for now when he plays the field, though I don’t think he sticks there. Still, the hitting side is what he prefers, but I’d actually heard more about him on the mound. As a hitter, he has a bit of a long swing, but there’s plenty of power in his bat. I think if the Royals can get him signed and get him to shorten up just a little bit, he has enough power that he can still flash that on the field. It’s kind of interesting that he has a long swing because as a pitcher, he has sort of short arm-action with some pretty solid velocity and a bit of feel for his slider. The Royals took him with the 595th pick but Baseball America ranked him 102nd and MLB Pipeline had him at 109th. If they can sign him, the upside is pretty fantastic.
But realistically, even if they can sign him, Charles is going to have a hard time reaching that ceiling. I liked quite a few of their picks. David Sandlin in the 11th round is excellent value and has a chance to be a good one. Jack Pineda is a fun player. So is Javier Vaz. While Gavin Cross might be the answer here, I think that’s both sort of a copout and I think another player has higher upside.
Of course, you don’t have to go far to find that pick, to me anyway, and it’s their second round pick, Cayden Wallace. The power he shows in his bat is just too impressive to not think the Royals development team can’t do something with him to help develop that hit tool he needs work on. He’s an athletic player with a very nice swing. It’s the approach that needs work and, as we’ve talked about so much, that’s the number one thing this development group teaches. I’ve talked to enough people who think he can stick at third that I think maybe he actually can. Some even believe he can play second. But even if he can’t do either, he should be fine in the outfield and his power will play at any position.
Sticking with the draft, this is a question I’ve seen a lot of, even if not necessarily directly to me. My short answer here is that I don’t think it is, but I don’t know that it isn’t. The draft with slot values plays a little bit weird, so if you end up drafting largely college talent with your biggest money picks, you’re likely going to end up with a very college heavy top-10 rounds. That’s because if you don’t end up signing a player, their slot value from that pick goes away and you have that much less to spend.
So you’ll find a lot of college picks, specifically in rounds seven through 10. Out of 120 total picks in those four rounds, there were 10 high school players taken. That’s because a good chunk of those high school players who were good enough to be a draft pick in one of those rounds will go to college and not sign.
So I believe that the draft presented itself in such a way that college just happened to be the way to go. That’s the story the Royals have told and I think I believe them. The high schoolers available at the ninth pick that seemed like possibilities for the Royals were Justin Crawford, Jett Williams and Brandon Barriera. There may come a time when those three will become better picks than Cross in hindsight, but right now, I think they picked the best player of those four. The same general premise is true of the second round. Henry Bolte was still available, but I like the Wallace pick better than I would have liked that pick as well.
But that’s not the entire story. They did trade the 35th pick to acquire Drew Waters, Andrew Hoffmann and CJ Alexander. That’s a spot where I think they looked at their current situation and decided to make a run at getting a couple of guys who might fit closer to their timeline than a draft pick. Of course, I look at who was available at that time, and my guess is the Royals would have gone college there as well, maybe taking Justin Campbell or Jordan Beck or even Connor Prielipp who ended up going one pick before the Royals took Wallace in the second round.
I think the easy answer is next season because I believe the Royals have some work to do with him and they know it. I know Drew Saylor has spent some time with him already and will continue to do so over the next few weeks. It also doesn’t help that the rosters expand to 28 now instead of 40 in September, so they’ll likely fill those spots with pitchers. But if they do trade Michael A. Taylor, they’ll have an opening in center field that they may call on him to fill.
My guess is if they move Taylor that Kyle Isbel gets the majority of the reps in center for the rest of this season. They need to get him everyday at bats and he’s played well defensively, at least as far as Statcast is concerned. So he’ll play there for the bulk of the rest of the season, and I think while we might see Waters later in the year, I wouldn’t be surprised if it waits.
And then there’s going to be a spring training competition in all likelihood between Waters and Isbel. There will be more than one outfield spot available, so I think both make the club and while Waters may not be the guy on Opening Day, he will be there not too long after.
In the same light, Nick Loftin has played a lot of center field, but he’s really an infielder. He actually has another year before he needs to be added to the 40-man, so my guess is we see him at some point later next year, maybe after the deadline. But I also sort of wonder if the Royals look to move him as part of a deal to bring back some pitching. Second base and center field seem to be his two best positions to make it to the big leagues and I think he’s behind a couple of people at both spots. He could play third where he could maybe make a move, but I don’t know if that’s in the cards either, so I’m curious if he’s on the block this winter.
I know these questions were asked to get an answer based on both my knowledge of the team and a hopefully informed opinion. That’s why it pains me to have to answer this one this way - I have no idea. If the Royals don’t move on from Eldred before next season (and I maintain it should be done yesterday…okay about 600 yesterdays ago really), they’re saying that their minor league development of pitchers is completely wrong and what is being sent to Eldred at the big league level isn’t his fault for not getting results.
So they have to change at least one of those two things. My opinion is they need to change both. I just can’t fathom going into a season counting on young pitching to be good and then watch them do what they’ve done this year. They prioritized first pitch strikes and they throw the fewest of any team in the league. They prioritized limiting walks and they walk more hitters than any team in the league.
The Royals lead the league in innings by pitchers who are 26 or younger, so they’re flashing the youth just about every time they take the field, but their young arms have the fourth-highest ERA in baseball, the fifth-highest FIP, the second-lowest strikeout rate and the seventh-highest walk rate. All of that is very, very bad. Most of these guys have had big success in the minor leagues, so you have to sort of assume that either they were just too naturally good for the minors and they weren’t properly developed or the finishing school that is the majors needs a new dean.
These final 70 games are huge. Brad Keller is part of the group of “young” pitchers since he’s in his age-26 season, so he’s included here, but outside of 12-14 Zack Greinke starts, the rest will be from pitchers who are 26 or younger. If they can show improvement, then I think there’s a chance Eldred keeps his job into next year. If they can’t, then I think this is finally the offseason they move on because even the Royals can’t continue to look past the lack of progress we’ve seen from him and the staff over the last few seasons.
I wouldn’t say I’m 100 percent confident in that, but I’ve heard from enough people that the only thing that has stopped them from doing to Eldred what they did to Bradshaw is that they didn’t have the answer in-house like they did on the hitting side. That does give Eldred some additional time to jockey for his job, but if he hasn’t been able to perform in five years, I don’t think less than half a season is going to be enough to change anything.
This is a fun question because there’s so much to go into it. Charlie Leibrandt arguably had the best single season of any lefty starter in either his 1985 season or his 1985 season. But Danny Jackson’s 1985 was also excellent. Bud Black’s 1984 season is also up there. But that doesn’t mean they were the best ever.
By fWAR, Paul Splittorff was the best. By bWAR, that title belongs to Leibrandt. Let’s take a look at these leaderboards.
fWAR:
Splittorff, 31.4
Leibrandt, 18.7
Danny Duffy, 16.3
Larry Gura, 13.8
Danny Jackson, 12.8
Jose Rosado, 11.6
Bud Black, 10.5
bWAR:
Leibrandt, 22.8
Splittorff, 22.4
Duffy, 20.3
Gura, 18.7
Black, 12.9
Jackson, 10.4
Rosado, 10.3
So I think the Leibrandt/Splitt combination is probably your answer for the best, but it’s open to opinion. I think it’s fair to say that pitch-for-pitch, Leibrandt was probably a better lefty than Splittorff, but I think the longevity puts him ahead to me. What I think is interesting is how few great lefties we’ve seen in KC. Of 26 pitchers with a career bWAR of 10 or more, just seven are lefties. That total number drops to 19 when you look at fWAR, so it’s a little more even.
But also, how good was Jose Rosado? Thanks a lot, Tony Muser.
This is a good last question before I get to the deadline because it relates to the deadline. And I say that because the first thing they need to do is be willing to move on from some veterans who aren’t core pieces of a winner. That means Whit Merrifield. That means Hunter Dozier. That means Taylor. It might mean Brad Keller as well, though given how little they have in the rotation at this particular moment, I’m not going to be heartbroken if they don’t trade him as long as they haven’t gotten an offer they shouldn’t turn down.
That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t trade Scott Barlow or Josh Staumont, by the way. Or even Zack Greinke. They absolutely should if the offer is right. Ignoring Greinke, Barlow and Staumont can be part of a championship core in some way, so if they don’t get the right offer, I’m fine with them hanging on to them. And that’s where the trade deadline fits in for this answer.
The rest is two steps. The first step is to get the young talent that we saw in Toronto to the big leagues. It doesn’t have to be all of them, but Pratto and Massey showed enough to me in just a couple of games. I wouldn’t mind seeing Eaton or Angel Zerpa either, though both probably could use a little more seasoning, I believe. Once those guys are up, I don’t think their performance matters that much, but I do think there’s something to it if they can produce at a reasonable level.
So there are 11 games before the trade deadline. Let’s give them all 11 of those games just to be friendly. That leaves 59 games for the “baby Royals” to show what they can do. If they can show the energy they showed in Toronto and even win something like 28 of those games, I think that will go a long way toward people believing.
Oh yeah, and firing Cal Eldred would go a long way.
I put a break there because there were a lot of trade deadline questions that came in. Some were a bit repetitive (not the fault of the questioner…just that there are only so many questions to ask), so I didn’t include all of them, but I’ve limited trade deadline questions to here.
This is the question that probably matters the most because we’ve seen what Moore can do as the lead at the deadline. And it’s generally not much. The Royals have historically only been active with players who are pending free agents. Over the last four seasons of selling, Brett Phillips is the only player the Royals have moved who was under team control beyond the end of that season. From what I understand, it’s not that they haven’t been willing to sell, but they both haven’t actively shopped players and have likely been unrealistic in their ask.
So there are two questions about JJ Picollo here. The first is if he truly is the one in charge. It sounds like he is. I think the trade they made involving the 35th pick in the draft screamed JJ over Dayton. And the second question then becomes if he is different from his predecessor. That’s a question we’re going to find out, but I have a feeling he is. The first trade they’ve made, as I mentioned, felt very different than what we’ve seen in the past.
I appreciate what Picollo has done over the last few years in embracing the analytics much more and being the point person for all the changes the team has made in their offensive development. And when they made the move to fire Bradshaw earlier this season and it was confirmed from Moore that it was Picollo’s call, I tend to believe that he will be more transactional. And they obviously have some pieces they could move, depending on what they’re willing to take back for some players.
They already traded Carlos Santana, basically as soon as he built any trade value, which also seems much more Picollo than Moore. We know that Andrew Benintendi will be traded. If he’s not, everyone needs to be fired and likely will be fired anyway. The only other player who will be a free agent after the season is Zack Greinke, and while they could likely move him for a low-level prospect, I sort of respect them letting him decide if he wants to go. It’s not like the team can’t use his innings every fifth day.
But there are obviously other candidates to move. Merrifield, Taylor, Dozier, Cam Gallagher, Keller, Barlow, Staumont and Taylor Clarke could all bring back a return. I’m going to say that Merrifield gets moved…only three years too late. This is based on nothing in particular, but I think Taylor gets traded as well. So that’s likely three trades, which if you include the trade for Waters and Hoffman and the Santana deal puts us over the five. But I could also see another player from the above list going. It might only end up being three trades in the next couple of weeks, but more than three players.
You’ll notice I didn’t mention Dozier in that answer. I think he gets a bad rap, at least offensively. He has a 118 wRC+ this season. With his terrible first half last year, he has a 106 wRC+ since the start of the 2019 season. As I wrote before the season, he’s perfectly fine. This is also a pretty unpopular opinion, but his contract is fine too. Four years and $25 million doesn’t stop any moves from being made. There are 89 players in baseball this season averaging more than the highest salary in the four years of his contract. That said, it was an unnecessary contract, but it’s not his fault he signed it. And I also sort of understand it at the time.
And yet, here we are. The Royals have Vinnie Pasquantino hitting already and Nick Pratto debuted in Toronto and looked good. Dozier can stand at four positions but isn’t good at any of them. They likely need a corner outfield spot for one of Pratto and MJ Melendez when Salvador Perez comes back, so that knocks out one of the spots where Dozier can stand and the other should be filled by Edward Olivares in the short-term (and maybe long-term) and Tyler Gentry in the slightly longer short-term.
All that is to say that they should be prioritizing finding a new home for him. The problem, as I see it, is the best fit for him is Boston, but they need to worry about traveling to Toronto and Dozier simply can’t. I’m not sure it’s that big of a deal because if they decided to take him on, he wouldn’t be a focal point of their offense and it wouldn’t take so much to get him that they’d worry too much about him missing a little time. I wonder if the Braves would have some interest. Maybe the Giants. I don’t know.
My hope is that the last weekend in Toronto will be something that opens their eyes to shop Dozier. I don’t know that there will be a move in the next two weeks for him, but I could see a team taking a shot on an inexpensive bat with two years left on his deal in the offseason.
Even though I do think Dozier gets a bad rap, I think he’s my answer here. But man, this is a great question because I’ve changed the answer in my head about six times already. I think the reason you move either of the other two is because their trade value is likely higher. Taylor is an elite defender who has shown some offensive chops this year and is pretty inexpensive. There are teams who both need that and can use him as a fourth outfielder in the way the Royals used Jarrod Dyson. And you’re not dead in the water if he has to come up to hit. So there’s a ton of value in that, which means he’s a good one to move.
With Keller, whether you believe he’s a number three, four or five starter, there’s value in that for pretty much every single team. Show me the team that doesn’t need pitching help and I’ll show you a team in a world of make-believe. The Royals can get some value for him and I think that would be worth making the move.
But here’s the issue. They also kind of either need or could really use both of those guys. Taylor in center field is fantastic for both the ballpark and the young pitchers coming up. He goes and gets it and the Royals don’t really have another center field option out there unless you count Waters, who we don’t know about just yet. And the rotation is thin at the moment because the young arms haven’t exactly developed. Can you imagine this rotation without Keller? Sure that’s sort of depressing that he’s been that important, but he really has.
So that leaves Dozier, who isn’t as bad as many think, but is probably the one stumbling block to Pratto getting to the big leagues. I think the value of getting Pratto up offsets whatever the difference is in the return for Taylor and Keller vs. Dozier. So I think moving him is the number one priority, but I don’t know that they will.
Benintendi is the one player I know they’re going to move. His value, no matter what anyone says, hasn’t changed significantly even with his inability to travel to Toronto. But I don’t get the sense they’re targeting any particular position for him other than pitching, which they target in pretty much every trade because of their inability to develop that themselves. I think the acquisition of Waters allows them to be a little freer with what they’re targeting.
Yes, they need some help at third base, but drafting Wallace probably makes him their number one third base prospect and Nate Eaton, who we got to see in Toronto, has a shot to be that guy as early as next season. Plus, I don’t think Emmanuel Rivera is completely out of the picture as he’s hit .342/.386/.561 in July. But again, they will and should be looking for pitching in pretty much every single deal they make.
The teams who should be interested in Benintendi, regardless of vaccination status are the:
Blue Jays
Braves
Brewers
Cardinals
Dodgers
Guardians
Padres
Phillies
Rays
Red Sox
White Sox
Yankees
Not all of those teams are even discussing him, but he’d be a benefit to all of them. And they all have pitching prospects the Royals could absolutely benefit from having in their organization. And for whatever it’s worth, many of them have third base prospects as well.
Looking ahead is always fun. I’m going to give you three lineups actually. The first is Opening Day 2023:
Olivares LF
Melendez RF
Witt Jr. SS
Perez C
Pasquantino DH
Pratto 1B
Candelario 3B
Isbel CF
Lopez 2B
Then after the deadline 2023:
Melendez RF
Witt Jr. SS
Pasquantino DH
Perez C
Pratto 1B
Gentry LF
Massey 2B
Waters CF
Lopez 3B
And finally, Opening Day 2024:
Melendez RF
Witt Jr. SS
Massey 2B
Perez C
Pasquantino DH
Gentry LF
Pratto 1B
Eaton 3B
Waters CF
Melendez is in right field because he has to play somewhere and the best alignment puts Pratto at first base, but Pratto will play some outfield, Melendez will catch and Pasquantino will play some first. You might notice Jeimer Candelario. I think the Tigers move on from him and the Royals pick him up as a stopgap and move him at the deadline next season.
Specific prospects for all of those guys are pretty tough, but some names that intrigue me are Hagen Danner, Gordon Graceffo, Michael Grove, JJ Goss, Reggie Lawson, Griff McGarry, Michael McGreevy, Luis Medina, Chris Murphy, Andy Pages, Jared Shuster, Ethan Small, Gavin Stone, Abner Uribe, Miguel Vargas, Ken Waldichuk and Samuel Zavala.
Let’s end it on this one:
Boy, they better. This is a short answer because I think it’s a pretty easy yes whether they make that trade at this deadline or in the off-season.
You mentioned that Dayton believes that he always does the right thing. I will comment only that the source of that arrogance is 2,000 years old. I also believe that it's part (not all, but part) of the reason Eldred is still employed by this team.
Sometimes even when this team does something right they do something wrong. Saturday night Whit had a very nice 2-out 2-run double. But just a couple of pitches later he violated one of the oldest (and most sound) axioms in baseball: never make the first or third out of the inning at third base.
Why he chose to try to steal that base will forever remain a mystery. Did he really think that Pratto, with his OPS of .983 and facing a right-handed pitcher who was struggling, was incapable of driving him in?
The almost nightly baserunning blunders we see from this team are of course just one aspect of a much larger story. But they're instructive nonetheless.