ItC Mailbag: Spring Training Plans, Pitching Questions, Defining Success and So Much More
Spring training is well underway, they're playing games soon and I'm answering some questions right here!
As far as winters go, this one in Kansas City hasn’t been too bad, at least not to this point, though I’m smarter than to say it’s definitively over. But the offseason is definitively over and we’re into a new era of Royals baseball, one that is more, ahem, analytically driven. There have been multiple stories over the last few days about the new coaching driving the pitching staff and I keep thinking about far behind the Royals have been in this regard, but how glad I am that they’re catching up now. I find myself wondering how quickly they can catch up, but that’s one of those questions we’ll get the answer to soon enough, I guess.
For now, I get the sense that most people in the fanbase have a renewed optimism for the long-term health of the organization but still aren’t exactly jazzed about the 2023 team. And that’s understandable. The big moves up until recently were Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough? That’s…not exciting at all. And as I’ve written so much, I actually understand their thought process, but it doesn’t mean it makes people happy. They’ve made some moves since then with bringing in Zack Greinke and making a couple of trades to clear roster space, but even so, it was a pretty quiet winter for a team coming off a 65-win season. Let’s just get to some questions.
I’m going to start here because this is fun even though it breaks my heart a little bit. I normally get to Arizona for a few days and catch spring training, but for a number of reasons I won’t be this year. Still, it’s a great time and I have a few suggestions.
Go to the back fields. I’m not sure what time they open up, but you can get to Surprise in the morning and catch practices. There are a bunch of fields back there so you can catch batting practice for the minor leagues on some or see infield drills for the big leagues on the main field closest to the actual stadium. If you hang out long enough, you’ll see guys passing through, so if you’re an autograph lover, get those autographs. Or maybe just say hey to someone like JJ Picollo or Ryan Lefebvre as they’re hanging around.
Go to the games, duh. Tickets are higher than they used to be, but still reasonably priced for some great views. There isn’t a bad seat in the house in Surprise, but the great thing about Arizona is that every stadium is in the greater Phoenix area. The Padres and Mariners train in Peoria, which is the closest stadium to Surprise, but you just have to hit the road for a short trip to find wherever the Royals are playing. Personally, I love Talking Stick (Diamondbacks and Rockies) and don’t love Tempe (Angels) but it’s fun wherever you go. I will warn you that Scottsdale (Giants) is pretty pricey, so just be prepared for that.
EAT! The food in Arizona is a delight, particularly if you like Mexican. I haven’t been everywhere, but I’ve been to spring training probably eight times in my life and I’ve tried some stuff. I’m literally going to name off restaurants here and hope I don’t forget any. I’ve had most of them, but heard great things about some. I’m sure I’m missing some. These are in no particular order:
Diego Pops
Blanco
The Mission
The Mexicano
Barrio Queen
Greene House
SumoMaya
Chelsea’s Kitchen
Roaring Fork (happy hour is bonkers)
The Herb Box
La Grande Orange
FnB
Pizzeria Bianco
Little Miss BBQ
Citizen Public House
Golf. I’m not personally a golfer, but the golfing in Arizona and Scottsdale in particular is something people rave about. I’ll have to hope someone in the comments can come through, but I do know that Troon North Golf Club comes up on a lot of lists.
Hiking. The thing about the Phoenix area that’s great is that you can be living the big city life one day and hiking Camelback Mountain the next. That’s the one that you’ll hear the most about and there are two passes to it. One is easier than the other, but neither is a walk in the park because it’s a mountain, not a park. But there’s so much cool desert hiking you can do that can’t go wrong.
Wear sunscreen. It’s Arizona. It’s hot. If you’re like me, you’re pasty and just thinking about a sunny day makes your skin a little red. I can’t stress this enough because we all know how much a bad sunburn can ruin a vacation.
Well I mentioned above why people may not care so much. Look, I get it. They won 65 games, signed a non-tendered pitcher and a journeyman and for the longest time, that was it. That’s not entirely true. They also fired a manager very few people liked and a pitching coach even fewer liked. But those aren’t the types of moves that generate buzz, they’re the moves that matter in the long-run. My thought is that the Chiefs were a big culprit for people not caring. I can say, anecdotally, that when I wrote on Monday after a Chiefs game, fewer people visited this very newsletter. So I stopped writing on Mondays after Chiefs games.
But it’s more than just the Chiefs. Again, 65 wins last year played a big role, but even the year before, they won 74. And the year before that, they played at a 70-win pace. And they lost 100+ the two years prior to that. It’s been a long time since the Royals were even relevant on July 4th. And not to discount what this team did from 2013-2017 and specifically 2014 and 2015, but this team has been basically irrelevant for 23 of the last 28 seasons. That’s a hard stigma to overcome.
With all that said, I think there’s another issue at play that I just can’t wrap my head around. Where are the beat writers? You have Anne Rogers on mlb.com doing an outstanding job covering this team and pumping out great stories from spring. And you’ve got Josh Vernier from 610 out there also doing a great job. Plus, 810 is going to be sending people out throughout the spring (Soren is out there now). But where is the coverage from The Kansas City Star, you know, the paper of record in Kansas City? Lynn Worthy was the beat writer, but he left to cover the Cardinals across the state. They haven’t hired anyone. That’s asinine to me.
And The Athletic, which has provided some of my favorite coverage over the last few years, has also ghosted the team. Alec Lewis did a great job and moved on to cover the Vikings, but that was in early September. Since then, they’ve had articles about the Royals, mostly written by Rustin Dodd an Andy McCullough. Sure that brings back some good memories, but also, people are paying for a subscription to have their favorite teams covered and they aren’t being covered. There are other teams that have had their beat writers leave and they’ve advertised for the role and either hired someone new or are actively looking. For the Royals, there continues to be nothing.
A team without proper coverage isn’t going to have buzz. There are some outstanding places to find Royals information. I’m not going to list them all for fear of missing any of them, but you can find just some outstanding analysis out there. But as far as people with the access that comes with a team beat, it’s woefully dry and that makes it very tough to generate any kind of excitement, at least until the games start and people can listen and/or watch. I can’t believe we’ve made it to this point without any new faces covering the team.
Pratto is one of the more wondered about players and with good reason. Heading into last season and coming off his great year in AA and AAA, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that he’d be in the big leagues soon. Then he struggled again, but in a much different way than he did in 2019. He did post a .369 OBP and .449 SLG in AAA last year, so if that’s a struggle, we’d all take that, but it came with a .228 average. But why?
He struck out a lot, which he’s done at every level, but he actually swung and missed less than he did in 2021 in AAA. He did get caught looking some because he gets deep into counts and he also lost a few at bats to a pitch clock violation, and the pitch clock is now going to be in the big leagues. Fewer of his fly balls left the yard, but really the metrics were pretty similar for him. So he gets the call to the big leagues before that Toronto series and ended up staying up because of the Edward Olivares injury and he was…not great. Sure he had his moments, but he didn’t hit the ball hard enough and that’s when he made contact.
He showed very real power and he showed that he has patience and I think he showed that he has a special glove at first base. But he also showed that what he did in 2022 wasn’t good enough. I think that led the Royals to say that he needs to earn his way back up. I thought it was a little odd when they sent him down, but having Vinnie Pasquantino do what he was doing at the big league level after he was called up made Pratto’s spot expendable.
But having said all of that, I don’t get the impression that he’s out of their plans and they’d just flip him for a random AA reliever at the first call. I think the shine came off a fair amount. I do thnk the Drew Waters injury may open a door for him as Waters will be out for six weeks with an oblique injury and we all know how those can linger. But it may give Pratto an opportunity to work in as the right fielder, but could be a nice platoon partner for Franmil Reyes with Olivares playing right some. That’s a triangle that could make some good roster sense actually.
To me, what he needs to do this spring is show better bat to ball skills. I don’t care about the results and I don’t anticipate the Royals especially do either, but he needs to show the patience we know he has while just simply making more and better contact. And he’s going to have chances. Pasquantino will be away at the WBC and so will MJ Melendez, which should open up plenty of at bats for Pratto to show he belongs on this roster. I think if he’s on the roster, you’ll see him at first a lot and in an outfield corner a lot. My gut is that he doesn’t make the roster anyway, but he’ll have every chance in the world.
I’m going to combine these two, partially because I’ve written a lot of words already and partially because it’s a good opportunity to highlight two examples of fantastic royals coverage. I think Daniel Lynch is a starter from the word go and I think he has a good year. When the Royals hired Brian Sweeney and subsequently Zach Bove, Lynch was the guy I immediately thought of to be the biggest beneficiary of them. I also thought Jonathan Heasley was a guy who could really benefit from the way the Twins use their fastballs. And Kris Bubic was another who I thought could be helped because he’s always willing to tinker to add or subtract and having guys who are actually good at their jobs to help him would be really big.
In terms of the rotation, though, I don’t think any of the young guys other than Lynch break camp as a starter. I think that honor goes to Brad Keller with the rest actually in AAA. If anyone will be in the bullpen to start the year, I’d bet on Bubic, but I don’t think he’s there, barring injury. But it’s a long season. The Opening Day rotation is not the August 1 rotation or even the June 1 rotation, which leads me to the question of over/under on starts.
I’ll take the over on Ryan Yarbrough. I think he’s in the bullpen to start the year, but he’s the guy to get a spot start every time there’s a need. He is the first line of defense through at least May and then will get enough starts the rest of the year to hit the over easily. And there’s a non-zero chance he’s just better than someone and earns himself 20 starts this season.
Give me the under on Angel Zerpa. Assuming he can get on a mound, he’ll get his starts, but I think he’s currently behind too many guys to really get that opportunity, so he’ll get five or six but will pitch out of the bullpen for awhile and might find that it’s his best and long-term spot.
I’ll go under on Carlos Hernandez too. The arm talent is there, but I’ve heard from more than a couple of people that he’s a better fit mentally in the bullpen. That doesn’t mean he can’t still figure it out and become a starter but having the chance to come into a game every day rather than knowing he’ll be on the sidelines for four days is probably better for him. The only thing I’m worried about here is if the Royals see him as an opener and use him as a starter like 31 times and he blows the over out of the water, so I’ll cover for himself and say under on 9.5 traditional starts.
And finally on Keller, I’ll go over. As I said, I think he starts the year in the rotation and that buys him a handful before we even get to Memorial Day. I also think he generally looks like he might be in the BSOHL and could benefit from someone helping him with the shape of his pitches.
Some others:
Heasley - under
Kowar - over (yeah, people really believe in him)
Bubic - over
There was a comment a few days ago asking a similar question, so I apologize if this is a bit of a repeat, but let’s take a look at some back-of-napkin math. Last year, they went 65-97 and their Pythagorean record was 64-98, so that’s about right. So the question becomes how many runs can they add and how many can they subtract on the pitching side? They were -170 last season. Can they get to even? It’s hard to really pin a number on these things with so many moving pieces, but a full season of Pasquantino probably adds 10-20 runs offensively over the half-season of Carlos Santana & Co. Can Melendez be better to add 10 himself? Can Bobby Witt Jr. add 20? Even 30? Let’s say 20. With those three, we’re at 45 additional runs. That’s 4.5 more wins.
Assuming we see the same production from Zack Greinke, an extra five weeks of Brady Singer starts compared to early season Hernandez or Bubic last year maybe subtracts 15 runs. Lynch being better subtracts 10. The bullpen being better maybe subtracts 20. There’s another 45. That’s nine wins. That puts them at 74 wins using this highly scientific method I’ve uncovered. Let’s start with a playoff spot. That required 86 wins last season and that’s probably about right. Is there any way to pull out 12 more wins? Of course there is. Michael Massey becomes Jeff McNeil, Kyle Isbel becomes Cedric Mullins and another starter or two step up in a big way with the bullpen being great instead of good.
So it’s possible. Is it likely? At this point, I don’t think so. The absolute ceiling for this team is probably 85-87 wins, which could be a playoff spot but the more likely almost-best-case scenario is probably more in the 77-81 win range, which isn’t too terrible for a season where they’re building for 2024.
So I think, outside of any additional injuries, the following players are on this roster no matter what they do in the spring:
Scott Barlow
Aroldis Chapman
Dylan Coleman
Hunter Dozier
Amir Garrett
Zack Greinke
Kyle Isbel
Brad Keller
Nicky Lopez
Jordan Lyles
MJ Melendez
Vinnie Pasquantino
Salvador Perez
Brady Singer
Josh Taylor
Bobby Witt Jr.
Ryan Yarbrough
That’s 17 players on a 26-man roster. Waters would have been there, but he’s out for six weeks, which means he won’t be ready to start the year and that stinks for him. I also think these players would need to lose their spots:
Taylor Clarke
Daniel Lynch
Michael Massey
Edward Olivares
Josh Staumont
So now we’re down to four available roster spots. None are pitchers. There are 13 pitchers listed above with nine position players, so the pitchers are rounded out. But there are three on the list who would need to lose their spots and I think that you could see any of Bubic, Max Castillo, Heasley, Kowar or Richard Lovelady make the team if any of those three falter. So they’re the ones who have the most to pitch for.
For position players, it’s more wide open. I think Reyes starts with a shot at the roster. I almost believe he has to prove he shouldn’t be on the roster to not make it because of his opt-out date at the end of spring training. But Pratto absolutely needs a big spring to make the roster, and the opening is now there, as I discussed. I think Nate Eaton has a very good chance at the Opening Day roster, but he needs a big spring as well. And I think that Matt Duffy and Matt Beaty are battling it out as well. It’ll be interesting to see what that battle looks like.
I think this is easy and I think it’s going to be Ned Yost. He’s going into the team Hall of Fame this summer and I imagine there’ll be an announcement that his number will be retired at that time. Does he deserve it? I think it’s a fair question. But he’s the all-time leader in wins for a Royals manager and oversaw an increase in wins in each of his first five full seasons at the helm of the club culminating in a World Series win. The overall win/loss numbers aren’t flashy, but part of that is he was a trooper in sticking with this club after most of his horses left after 2017. He wanted to get the team to a spot where they could start to improve and I think he did get them to that point. Plus, there’s precedent with a World Series winning manager.
If it’s not Yost, it’ll be Alex Gordon, who should be eligible for the team HOF next season. I’m sure some will argue with that, but if there isn’t a 4 on the HOF building, I’ll be shocked. But if for some reason, Gordon doesn’t get his number retired, the next one is stll on the time.
And it’s Salvador Perez. But Brad wants to know if he’ll make it to the building in Cooperstown. There are 19 catchers currently in the Hall of Fame and just seven of them have been enshrined since 1990 with two of those being from the Negro Leagues as we started to see those players getting inducted long after they should have. The point here is that the standard to induct catchers is very, very high, as I believe it should be. Of the 19 in, nine of them played the majority of their carer after 1950. I don’t know why I chose that year but I did.
Those nine are Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella, Gary Carter, Carlton Fisk, Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez and Ted Simmons. Their total career batting line is .282/.347/.471 with an average of 337 homers, 1,304 RBIs, 390 doubles and 36 triples. How does Salvador Perez compare to that right now?
He’s a .268/.301/.463 hitter with 236 doubles, 11 triples and 223 homers to go with 732 RBIs. Of course, his career isn’t over and two of the last three seasons he’s played have seen him take his offense to another level. Multiplying his 2020 numbers by 2.7 (162/60) would give him an additional 19 home runs, 20 doubles and 54 RBIs which may or may no be taken into consideration when the time comes for a vote on him.
Jay Jaffe has a great metric he’s developed called JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score system) to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness. A player’s JAWS is his career WAR averaged with his 7-year peak WAR. The best catcher of all-time by this metric is, unsurprisingly, Bench. He was at 61.2. Carter is next at 59.3, then Rodriguez at 54.3, Fisk at 53, Piazza at 51.3, Berra at 48.7 and amazingly Joe Mauer at 47.1. Perez ranks very respectively here at 35th. But he’s ahead of just two Hall of Famers. For now.
He has averaged 4.2 WAR per 162 games and 3.2 WAR per full season played. Let’s say he plays another six years, which is a lot, but I don’t expect him to be willing to hang up the shin guards for awhile knowing him. And let’s say he earns 6.5 WAR for the next two, 5 WAR for the two after that and 3 WAR for the final two. That’s an additional 14.5 WAR, which would put his JAWS number to 37.5, right around where Jorge Posada finished his career at 19th. It would put him ahead of four more Hall of Famers.
In that time, we could give him 120 homers, 120 doubles and 450 RBIs. These are obviously just some guesses here, but that would give him 356 doubles, 343 home runs and 1,182 RBIs. Those numbers fit with the Hall of Famers. Add in a World Series MVP, five Gold Gloves (which I believe is the sixth-most all time) and I think you have a case that he might find his way in if he’s able to finish his career strong. I don’t belive that he gets in if he were to retire today. Where I think he’ll have an advantage is that by the time he retires and votes happen, I think voters will be less concerned about framing metrics because of changes in how the game is called.
I also wonder what kind of impact we’ll see from the new instruction he and the other catchers are getting from Matt Quatraro and Paul Hoover. Maybe he can get back his defensive reputation late in his career and if the Royals can start winning again with him in the middle of the lineup, that’s probably going to be attractive to voters as well. So yeah, I think he has a shot but he has some work to do in order to catch up to the guys who are already in and set the standard. If he could go out and have another season like 2021 or even 80 percent of it, he’d be a whole heck of a lot closer too.
This is a great question because there are only wrong answers. I would lose a fight to either. Badgers are crazy and Pasquantino is a big guy who is both younger and stronger than me. But you’re making me choose and I think you always take the one-on-one rather than the alternative. I mean can you imagine me trying to take on 100 of anything? I guess Pasquantino is probably a lot nicer than a badger, so maybe I could just make friends with all of them and grab some beers with them. Ugh I don’t know, Matt. I might be changing my tune. I think the answer is that you just choose not to fight anything resembling a Pasquantino or a badger.
Let’s end with these two, which are basically asking the same thing.
I really wish the answer to this was a division title and a chance to win a World Series, but unfortunately, that’s just not where this team is. You can argue if it should be after so many years in the wilderness of losing but it isn’t and the past can’t be changed now. So what is success for the 2023 Royals? I think there are a few answers. Obviously an improvement over last season is vital, but how big of a jump? If they win 68 games, is that enough? I know what you’re thinking. “Hey, we’re asking YOU the questions, not the other way around.”
Okay fine. I don’t think the number matters that much this year. If the Royals got to 75 wins because Hunter Dozier, Brad Keller, Zack Greinke and Jordan Lyles had monster seasons, who cares? Stop laughing, it’s hypothetical! If Witt goes 30/30 and Melendez walks 15 percent of the time and hits 25 homers and Pasquantino hits .300/.390/.530 and Singer shoves again and Lynch figures it out and they win 65 games again, that’s still a huge success because 2023 is unfortunately again about the long game. Again, I think it’d be tough to do that, but you get the idea.
This season is about two (okay really three) things. It’s about the young guys taking steps forward and about figuring out who is part of the future and who isn’t. It’s as simple as that. If you add in the third, it’s about young/inexperienced pitching that needs to figure things out, but that also sort of works hand in hand with the second objective of the season. And, honestly, that’s it. That’s what matters in 2023. Yes, it stinks, but it’s also the reality of the current situation.
This might sound like a kumbaya rah rah way to look at things, but every season is some level of successful if you learn something that can help you in future seasons. As long as the Royals play their young talent and learn who they are and what they can count on moving forward, it’s some level of success. Real success is seeing Witt, Pasquantino, Melendez, etc. break out and watching Singer build on last season and Lynch (or really any of the other young starters) become a legitimate two or three starter and Dylan Coleman do what he did after the break and all of that. If that happens and the Royals can go into next season with seven to 10 players (or more) who they absolutely know can be part of a championship roster, it will have been a successful year. It would also be nice to win 90 games, but, well, this isn’t fantasy land.
I know there were questions I didn’t get to, but I had so many great ones and there’s a little count on the screen where I put the article into the newsletter that estimates how long it’ll take to read this. It’s at 23 minutes, so I have to stop because you guys have things to do, but we’ll do it again soon! Thank you so much for all the amazing questions you’ve asked and thanks so much for reading. It’s going to be a fun year!
Thank you for the clarification. Lots of good local eating places in the area. Best hamburger in Az is a place called Wild Horse West! Place in out toward Lake Pleasant and looks seedy but is clean, friendly staff, and very busy but just plain people. I was Pres of Bank and my wife a Supt. of Schools
and have been uncomfortable there. Thanks for yout kind response.
Anything new on the Balley Sports belly up possibility? I finally got in with a ISO that actually carries them and would be more than irritated if I couldn’t watch them with all the kids. Thanks. GFG