ItC Mailbag: 2024 Impact, Six-Man Rotations, Stadium Dimensions and More

The Royals are well underway in Arizona, so I wanted to answer some of your hot questions.

We are now less than four weeks from the first pitch of the regular season being thrown. We don’t know who will throw it, but it’ll likely be one of three pitchers - Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans or Michael Wacha. None of them were in the organization to start last season. Half of the 26-man roster that lines up on the foul line four weeks from yesterday may be made up of players who were not in the organization at the start of last year. In addition to the 10 players brought in via free agency, trade or the Rule 5 draft this winter, James McArthur, Ragans and Nelson Velazquez were brought in after Opening Day. The organization was in such disarray even before a 56-win season that, yeah, they needed to do that.

So now we’re just weeks away from the most anticipated seasons since probably 2017. In some ways, expectations are pretty low. I’ve talked to some people who think they’d come close to throwing a parade for 75 wins. That’s an improvement of 19 wins, which would be quite a bit and I actually do think it’s very possible, but basically as long as the Royals don’t fall on their faces, they should meet expectations. The team believes they can win the division. I also believe they can, but I don’t necessarily believe they will. Either way, it promises to be a much more fun summer than what we suffered through last year. Let’s get to some questions.

I want to start with this question because while the Royals have built a team they believe can compete in 2024, this is still not a team that is ready to compete consistently yet. That doesn’t mean they can’t win with this group, but take a look at the roster and you’ll see it’s a lot of young guys who could be part of a championship core and then a bunch of guys on short deals who are a little older, many of whom will barely be in Kansas City long enough to see ground broken on a new stadium (assuming that vote passes next month). So there’s more to come for that core.

Kevin’s question isn’t so much about that, but my answer actually gives a response and is part of that. With a somewhat dry farm system (heavy on depth, not on upside), it’s kind of hard to find someone who can be a key contributor to have a big impact on both 2024 and beyond, but if I had to guess, I’d say Tyler Gentry is the guy to do that. I’ll get to the outfield in another question, but I don’t believe what we see on Opening Day will be what we see on August 1 (and maybe well before that). Gentry is one of the reasons I wasn’t a huge fan of the Hunter Renfroe signing, if I’m being honest.

If you’re unfamiliar with Gentry, he was a third-round pick in 2020, so he didn’t get to see minor league action until 2021. He hit .259/.395/.449 in Quad Cities, which isn’t great, but after basically not playing at all in 2020, some rust is to be expected. He took off in 2022, hitting .326/.422/.542, including .321/.417/.555 in AA. Without knowing anything more than the numbers, you can tell that he has an idea at the plate with the gap between his average and OBP. You can also tell that he has enough power, but maybe not anything that separates him. He isn’t going to wow you with tools, but he’s a good player and one who I think may end up anchoring the bottom of the middle order this year and for years to come.

I guess I’ll just get right to this one because it was double asked! It’s a good question because the Royals are in a spot where they have a lot of bodies for only a few spots. By my count, there are 16 players in camp who can play outfield. Not all of them should, but 16 can. Let’s assume health for everyone coming out of camp, which is certainly not a given, especially with Renfroe already not having gotten into any action because of back tightness. I think if he’s healthy, he’s in right field most days. That’s what the free agent contract gets you, at least to start the year.

But with him, the guys who are the best bets for the big league roster are (in alphabetical order) Dairon Blanco, Kyle Isbel, MJ Melendez, Nelson Velazquez and Drew Waters. I don’t think Gentry has a real shot at the Opening Day roster without a handful of injuries, so I’m not including him. I think the starters on Opening Day are Melendez in left field, Isbel in center field, Renfroe in right field and Velazquez as the designated hitter. But this is where it can complicated.

The fourth outfielder role is likely between Blanco and Waters. Obviously Waters has more upside, but Blanco might be a better fit for someone to play three or four days a week. Plus, he’s a right-handed bat who can spell both Isbel and Melendez. Yes, Waters is a switch hitter, but he really struggled against left-handed pitching last season. Is that an aberration? Maybe! But it’s hard to know for certain. I still think if the Royals had to choose, they’d have Waters playing every day in AAA rather than sitting on the bench more often than not.

But maybe they’re more of a fifth outfielder because the Royals don’t want Velazquez to only be a designated hitter, so he’s going to play in the field. They’ll rotate the DH spot, so that’ll be filled by Melendez and Renfroe at times, but also by Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez at times. And maybe even by Bobby Witt Jr. or Michael Massey at times. So it won’t always be a possibility to have all four of the outfielders play at a time.

In addition to that, both Garrett Hampson and Adam Frazier can play some outfield and Hampson might actually be the backup center fielder if they decide they want to keep an extra infielder like Nick Loftin, who can also play some outfield if he’s on the roster. So to answer your question, it’s kind of a mystery but I think we all know these things work out well. If I had to guess I’d say that Melendez plays left more than anyone, Isbel plays center more than anyone, Renfroe plays right more than anyone and Velazquez serves as DH more than anyone. But this is the spot I’m the least confident in any answer on.

I think the answer here is Melendez, which is funny because I was so sure he’d be traded that I had a draft written about the Royals trading him all the way until like two weeks ago. Maybe I’m just silly here, but I just can’t let myself stop being enthralled with what he can bring to the table. Yes, the swing is sometimes a little ugly, but the contact is elite.

His average exit velocity in 2023 was in the 96th percentile. His hard-hit rate was in the 91st percentile. His barrel rate was in the 75th percentile. Add in that he doesn’t generally chase and can work a walk and he’s a hitter you feel should be able to put up numbers. But the start of his season was one that had people turning their backs on him. He had a .582 OPS at the end of April. It was still just .659 at the end of May. And it dropped to .622 at the break. But he made some small adjustments with his hand during the break and went to work and the results came immediately.

In the end, he hit .273/.352/.485 after the break. That was good for a 124 wRC+. He did it by barreling the ball about as well as he did before the break. He hit it about as hard. And he hit it 95 MPH+ about as often. A big difference is that he just made more contact. When you make good contact, you want to make it as often as possible, and he made it more after the break than before it. It’s really very simple. So am I silly to believe in the changes he made? Maybe! But I do, and here we are. I’m ready to be hurt again.

One thing to keep in mind with Melendez is that I think it’s forgotten just how good he was at the highest levels of the minors in 2021. He hit .288/.386/.625 between AA and AAA and, in a lot of ways, was even better at AAA than AA. He did it without striking out too much and doing damage to the baseball. I don’t think it’s out of line to think that a guy who was league average or so offensively in his rookie year could take a step forward at the end of his second year with an adjustment.

The Royals have a tough road ahead of them to start the year. They open at home with the AL Central champs for three. Then they go to Baltimore, who won the AL East, for three. They come back home and get four against a bad White Sox team and then it’s three against the AL West champs. Then it’s to New York to face the Mets, three more against the White Sox and then home against Baltimore and Toronto. They finish the month with three in Detroit and the first two of a three-game set against the Blue Jays in Toronto. That’s 31 games with 18 against teams that made the playoffs and six of those are against teams in the Mets and Tigers who reasonably could be good.

But the beginnings of seasons are weird. The Astros were inconsistent in 2023. The Orioles could be missing their second-best starter and a guy who I think they were counting on to be their three or four starter. The Blue Jays made the playoffs, but they certainly had their struggles. It’s a difficult start to the year, but it’s not like they’re forced to play the Braves and Dodgers too. I think if you’re looking at those 31 games (and they play all 31), you feel great about 16-15, good about 14-17, fine about 13-18 and pretty iffy about the rest. After the final game against the Blue Jays, they’re home for the Rangers and Brewers, so to extend it out a bit, they play 24 of their first 37 games against playoff teams from last year. That’s a tough start.

I think it’s Waters, but I don’t feel super duper confident in that answer. Waters plays a more important position and plays it well. And that’s true whether he’s in a corner or in center. I also think him being a switch hitter helps him quite a bit because Pratto will always be subject to a platoon until he can prove he can hit lefties (though, again, Waters struggled against lefties as a right-handed hitter last year). And I think his speed allows him to overcome a little bit more.

I also think (and there’s not data to back this up) that Waters is less susceptible to the swing and miss than Pratto. Yes, Waters does swing and miss more than Pratto, at least in 2023 but I think it’s more pitch-based. He doesn’t have a bad eye at the plate, though it’s not as strong as Pratto’s. He needs to learn to lay off the breaking balls, but I think it’s possible that he does. Pratto also needs to learn that. Oy, I don’t know.

I also think it helps that Waters could become a regular at any of three spots while Pratto has just one that he can play well enough to matter. And while the reputation is sterling defensively for Pratto, the metrics don’t agree. I think the truth is somewhere in between, but it’s also fair to point out that he hasn’t rated well defensively while Waters has. I also just don’t think Pratto’s quality of contact is good enough to make a difference if he does start to make more contact. This is a good question because after typing this, I’m not sure it’s not Pratto.

You’re not going to like this answer at first, but I don’t. But here’s where you like it. I think he can’t take a spot that doesn’t exist. I don’t know if Jordan Lyles is going to start the season in the rotation or not. I’d bet on yes, but I don’t think he’s still in the rotation by the time Bubic comes back, which is roughly July, I believe. I don’t get the impression the Royals especially want Lyles pitching every fifth day. I know that by saying that I’m opening up to like a billion more questions of why they don’t just pitch him and I can’t answer that.

But I think that even if he starts the year in the rotation, he’ll have pitched his way out of that rotation long before Bubic’s return. It does set up a really interesting situation for the Royals once Bubic does get back. This assumes everything goes well in his return. While the success rate for Tommy John is quite high and pitchers can return in 12-14 months, it’s often the season after the return that command comes back. And, let’s be honest, Bubic wasn’t exactly a world beater before the surgery. We were super impressed with a few outings before he got hurt, but he’ll have plenty to prove.

That said, if he proves healthy, the Royals will have an interesting conversation to have with their starting staff of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Brady Singer, probably Daniel Lynch IV and Bubic when he’s back.

Wow Jacob, thank you so much for this timely question. I don’t believe there will be a six-man rotation at the start of the season. They don’t have the off days we’ve become accustomed to at the start of the year, so they do need a fifth starter pretty quickly, but I don’t think they’ll go non-traditional so quickly. I do think there’s a chance that they open things up as the season goes on to get guys an extra day or two of rest here and there.

I’ve written about this before, but there’s some very real rotation depth. We know the main six to start the season with either Lyles or Lynch on the outside looking in. But there are others behind them including Alec Marsh, Anthony Veneziano and Angel Zerpa. At some point, they may joined by Matt Sauer, Mason Barnett, Chandler Champlain and, yes, Bubic. That’s a lot of pitchers who you might want to get a start or two. And as Jacob mentions, it’s a lot of guys who have not pitched a full season in the rotation right now.

We’re looking at Ragans as the ace of the staff, but last years 124.1 innings between the minors and majors was the most he’s thrown. Lugo threw 146.1 innings last year, but had never thrown more than 136 before that and that was in 2015 in the minors. The last time Wacha threw more than 150 innings was in 2017. Brady Singer’s 159.2 innings last year was his career-high. Only Lyles has proven he can really give big-time innings and we all know what kind of quality he brings to the table.

So yeah, I think it would make a lot of sense if they went to a six-man rotation at times throughout the year. This staff probably can’t be counted on for a bunch of 30-start seasons, but if the big four can throw 25-28 each and then account for the final 40-60 or so from other sources.

This is an interesting question and I don’t know that I’m right on my answer, but I think that kind of space in the outfield was actually put the pitching staff at a pretty big disadvantage. People mistake Kauffman Stadium for a pitcher’s park quite a bit because of how difficult it is to hit home runs there, but all that space in the outfield leaves a lot of room for hits. And that’s with the Royals targeting athletes to cover that kind of ground in the outfield.

They absolutely could go all in on track stars to cover all this ground, but I think ultimately there will just be too much land to deal with. And even if they were able to track everything down, how many of these track stars can actually hit? Think about all the players who were burners who the Royals have had. How many hit enough to handle being in the lineup every day?

This is a super boring answer, but I think the best configuration is something that allows the Royals to highlight athleticism at one or two spots in the outfield while not requiring it for all three. Maybe on average it plays neutral, but it’s actually huge in some parts and smaller in others. I think that’s the ticket there. Then you can target a certain type of pitcher and a certain type of outfielder that fits the park. Maybe it’s a short porch in right field but center field is deep while left field is pretty average. Maybe it’s the other way. Maybe center field is actually shallower than average but the corners are deeper. Now I’ve gotten myself dizzy thinking about that, but I think more space actually causes more problems.

There’s this kid playing shortstop. His dad was a big leaguer. Okay fine, I’ll give you a real answer. I’ll give you two.

I think John McMillon is the real deal out of the bullpen. There are health questions without a doubt, but the stuff is bonkers. The fastball is a legitimate 98-100 regularly. His breaking ball is filthy. After getting drafted twice and not signing, he was an undrafted free agent in 2020. If he does make it big like I think he will, it’ll be a bigger story than it should have been. He’d have been drafted if the draft was longer than five rounds, but it wasn’t, so he wasn’t. Like Gentry, he didn’t get to pitch in the organization until 2021.

It didn’t go great. He struck out a bunch of guys, but walked way too many. In 2022, he threw 31 innings in Columbia and struck out 45 batters, which seems great until you find out that he walked 38. It’s difficult to give up more runs than hits in 31 innings, but McMillon did it. The story goes that he looked good in spring training but was assigned back to Columbia and that made him angry. His offseason work paid off and he was outstanding in 2023.

He still probably walked too many in Columbia to start the year, but when you strike out half the hitters you face, it’s not as big of a deal. Then in Quad Cities, he struck out more than half the hitters he faced and the walk rate dropped. Then in Northwest Arkansas, he struck out 30 in 20.2 innings and earned his callup to the big leagues. He looked electric in four innings but then was out for the year with an injury that he and the Royals both say is behind him. If he’s able to pitch this season, he’s the best pitcher in that bullpen.

Offensively, it’s a little less clear to find a breakout candidate. Melendez is a fair enough guess, and I outlined why I think he’s the fourth-best bat in the lineup above, but I think a dark horse here is Michael Massey. I may rely too much on this, but I believe in the track record. Massey did nothing but hit in the minors and legitimately earned his callup in 2022. He wasn’t as good in the majors as he was in the minors upon his callup, but he did put up a 92 wRC+. His defense didn’t rate great, but he had a good reputation.

In 2023, the season started in disaster for him. He couldn’t draw a walk. He couldn’t stop striking out. I think he was close to a demotion. But he started working some walks. He stopped striking out. And he finished the season hitting .269/.313/.513 in September. There’s fool’s gold in September without a doubt, but it started to match the track record in the minors. When you combine that kind of pop with the solid to good defense he plays at second, and the way he pairs with Witt, I think you could see Massey have a big year in 2024.

That’s all I’ve got for you. Thank you so much for the incredible questions. I’m sorry I didn’t get to all of them. I’ll be in the air soon on my way to Arizona, so the comments section is all yours today.