ItC Offseason Mailbag: Salvy's HOF Case Revisited, the Price of Pitching and More
You've got questions. I attempt to provide answers.
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We’re right in that sweet spot of the offseason where the World Series just ended a couple weeks ago and the league hasn’t quite been locked out yet. So with that in mind, I thought it would be fun to dust off the old mailbag and answer a few questions about your Kansas City Royals. While the promise from the front office is for a quiet winter with laments about not being able to sign top free agent starters and the like, I do think there will be some action in Kansas City. So much of the improvement from 2021 to 2022 will be internal with prospects debuting and recent debuts hopefully improving, but there still appears to be a number of opportunities for the Royals to make some tweaks with the market as it currently stands.
Anyway, let’s get to the questions.
Brad asked me about Salvy in my first mailbag back while the Royals were still winning. My answer in a nutshell was that I didn’t think he was a Hall of Famer. At that time, he was coming off a very good, but very short 2020 and had hit well to start the season (.279/.329/.559 with five homers in 17 games), but you have to remember that Salvy has a history of falling off later in the year.
So the season goes on and we all know what the man did, both as a whole and after the break. And now after hitting more home runs in a season than any primary catcher has ever hit, things have changed a little bit. He went from a guy who had just cracked 1,000 hits during his age-31 season to a catcher with 1,161 hits and 200 home runs. Add in a World Series MVP, a bunch of Gold Gloves and being adored by the media and the conversation shifts a bit.
The big argument against Salvy, both in HOF talks and just in general placement in baseball, is his defense. The numbers stink. They mostly stink because of his inability to frame, which is kind of silly that it matters, but also does matter. This year, he was worth -19.5 framing runs per 6,000 pitches. Among catchers with at least 300 innings caught (and remember, that’s not a ton), that’s the worst by a lot.
And it brings the numbers down significantly. It’s why he’s worth 15.2 wins above replacement on Fangraphs and 29.6 on Baseball Reference. And sometime soon, I have a hunch that framing won’t be a thing because an automated strike zone is likely to be a part of the game sooner than later. And with it, the skill of tricking an umpire into thinking a ball is a strike will no longer matter. The sooner that comes, the better it is for Salvy and not because it’ll improve his WAR numbers, but because voters seem likely to look back on this era where it supposedly matters and won’t ding players for things that shouldn’t have been part of the game in the first place.
That’s what’s important in the Salvy for HOF discussion now because the offensive numbers have a chance to be all-time great for catchers. He obviously won’t ever get on base, but he’s signed for at least four more years and there’s a team option for a fifth. If he can be anything close to 2021 offensively, his bat plays outside of catcher as well and it seems like he’s unlocked something with his ability to punish pitches inside the zone.
He’s at 200 homers now. If he averages 30 per year between now and the end of his deal (assuming the option is picked up), he’ll have 350. Four catchers have ever hit 350 homers. If he averages 128 hits in those next five years, he’ll have 1,800 for his career. Since 1901, 19 catchers have done that. So he’ll need a bit more to get into elite territory, but just two or three more years will get him into the top 10 there, if he’s still hitting. There are a lot of ifs, but I would raise his HOF chances from quite slim to “hey, there’s a chance here.” If he does what he did in 2021 again in 2022, say 150 hits and 35 homers, suddenly it starts getting even more likely. And if the Royals start winning again, and soon, and Salvy is a big part of that, it gets even likelier.
As for Buck O’Neil, he better get in. He should have gotten in a long time ago and they can right that wrong, or at least put him where he belongs now. I don’t know if he will because it’s hard to trust that the HOF will get it right after getting it so wrong before.
I like this question because it gives me an opportunity to make a comparison that I was trying to find the right place to make and couldn’t before.
Player A: 31 years old, 3.98 ERA, 21.8% K%, 7.9% BB%, 1.1 HR/9
Player B: 29 years old, 4.16 ERA, 24.4% K%, 8.1% BB%, 1.1 HR/9
You probably know that Player B is Eduardo Rodriguez, who Jimmy is referencing in his tweet. So his strikeout rate is higher, but the league strikeout rate is almost a full percentage point more than Player A’s career for the numbers above, which makes it a lot closer. Player A got a contract of five years and $70 million coming off a qualifying offer with an opt-out after two years. Player B got a contract of five years and $77 million coming off a qualifying offer with an opt-out after two years.
Player A is Ian Kennedy. The price of pitching has actually stayed remarkably consistent, at least in the middle tier. If anything, there’s an argument that Rodriguez is enough better due to age and strikeout rate that the cost for a guy like him has actually gone done. Now, if you’re arguing that Dayton Moore bid against himself for Kennedy, you might be right and that means that the two aren’t comparable, but we don’t know that, so I’m looking at the numbers and the contracts and thinking that the Royals can both be competitive in that market and that it’s gotten easier for all teams to be competitive.
But that’s not really your question here. You want to know how the Royals can keep young pitching with pitching the price it is. That’s always been a big question, and there are two ways they can get around it. The first is that they need to be very wise with their early career investments. I wrote the other day about a pre-debut deal for Bobby Witt Jr. I don’t think you’ll see that for a pitcher, like, ever, but they need to be aggressive and be right. If they think Daniel Lynch is a guy who can be an ace, give him a contract now. If they think Brady Singer’s changeup is going to be good enough to vault him to the top of a rotation, sign that man up. Being smart with locking up young pitching is how they keep those guys.
But on a broader level, they can’t keep them all. So the real remedy to the pitching market being above their supposed financial heads is to keep developing pitching. The last wave of talent that debuted in 2010-2012 or so and then led to a World Series was great, but the team fell into a valley not because of trades to supplement that team but because they didn’t develop hardly anyone behind them. When Eric Hosmer walked after 2017, they didn’t have a single player in the system worthy of playing time at first base, so they signed Lucas Duda. When Lorenzo Cain left, the guy who played more games in center than anyone the next season was Abraham Almonte.
They developed a bullpen to cover for an inability to develop much in the way of starting pitching, and that actually lends itself incredibly well to today’s game, but they need to keep developing pitching. Ben Kudrna and Frank Mozzicato need to be ready to go when they decide that someone in the current rotation is too expensive. A guy they draft in a few months will likely need to be ready to go in 2025 or whatever year. That’s the real answer.
I was debating tackling this in a full article, but I’ll give a bit of an answer here. My extension for Benintendi wouldn’t exist. Clint Scoles made a great point last week about the kind of production he gives with his injury risk and I just don’t think it makes sense to pay big for that when they should theoretically be able to replace that at the big league level fairly easily. If you believe in their offensive development plans, you should be able to believe that they can find .275/.340/.430. Now, that said, Benintendi has more upside than that. He had an .830 OPS as a 23-year old and hit .386/.434/.636 over his final 24 games.
If the Royals believe he has figured things out and can get back on track as not just a nice piece in a lineup but as an important piece, now is a good time to lock him up. Signing him right now to something like a four-year deal keeps him in Kansas City through his age-30 season, which is pretty perfect. It gives him an opportunity to hit free agency at a still young age and it gives the Royals his prime years. So that makes sense.
The problem with finding a Benintendi deal is looking at left fielder, they simply don’t make much money. Christian Yelich does, but he was a monster for at least two years. Justin Upton does too, but Benintendi has never approached the peak that Upton had before signing that deal. The other two making eight figures per year are Michael Brantley, who signed a two-year deal and Marcell Ozuna, who was coming off a bonkers 2020.
The money is really made in the other corner for corner outfielders, but one guy is a decent enough comp here and it’s Randal Grichuk. He came up with the Cardinals and played four seasons there before being traded to the Blue Jays and was good in different ways than Benintendi in his age-26 season. Benintendi played four full years in Boston with his career starting a year earlier in a 34-game audition and was solid in his age-26 season in Kansas City. Grichuk’s deal was for five years and $52 million.
With Benintendi projected to make around $9 million in arbitration in 2022, you can look at the next four years and I think $43-$48 million or so is probably fair enough for him. So maybe you give him the Meche/Sweeney deal of five years and $55 million with that including 2022. Again, I’m not so sure I would do that. If he wanted to do something like three years and $33 million, I’d be a lot more amenable to that, but I’m guessing it would take a Grichuk-esque deal to get it done.
Honestly, I don’t know. Noah Syndergaard has thrown two innings in two seasons and got $21 million. Justin Verlander has thrown six innings in two seasons and got $25 million. And then there’s the Rodriguez contract that we talked about above. Carlos Rodon threw 132.2 innings last year and was dominant. He did wear down, but I have to feel like if he wants more than one year, he’s probably looking at somewhere at least $18 million per year with what the other two signed for.
Now Steven Matz and Jon Gray are a little different because they’re more in the Rodriguez category. I think Gray is pretty similar to Rodriguez in terms of numbers, upside and all of that. The difference is that he had a terrible 2020 that you’re tempted to throw out entirely but it still happened and he’s seen as more of a reclamation in a way because you feel like a team can get more out of him than the Rockies did, both due to the ballpark and because who in the world knows what is going on with that team? I think he’s probably looking at a similar $15-$17 million per year that Rodriguez got, though maybe for just four years rather than five. Or maybe it’s five with the opt out pushed?
With Matz, it’s interesting because I think of him as very much injury prone, but he made 30 starts in 2018 and 2019 and made 29 in 2021, so I think that’s probably not entirely fair to him. And in those three seasons, he’s been quite good. He gets strikeouts, he throws strikes and he limits walks. He is susceptible to the home run, but he’s a quality pitcher. He’s a year older than Gray and two years older than Rodriguez, so I think he’s probably looking at a three or four year deal and it’s hard to pinpoint the market. If he’s looking at 3/39 and the Royals pass, I think it’s a mistake. If he’s looking at 4/68, I think signing him is a mistake.
All that said, pitching is a fit. The Royals have sort of said this but they’d love a veteran to lead their staff, and I’ve heard from a few people that they’d love to move Mike Minor to make room for a veteran who is a little better. Now, if they can’t move Minor and they can’t find a deal, they’ll take Minor and hope for 180 innings of keeping them in games like he did in 2021 (not the innings, but the keeping them in games), but they’d like to find an improvement there. I still think Alex Cobb is probably a better fit for this team than any of them, and as I wrote on Royals Review last week, they’ll give him one more year than I’m happy with no matter what.
I’m going to go with no to the first question. Nothing is guaranteed in this world and some team could come to the Royals and give them the Godfather offer they can’t refuse, but I’d be pretty surprised. For one thing, they’ve refused for years and now Merrifield is pretty clearly in decline. For another, you just have to look at the clues around the team to see what their plans are. When they use a guy in their marketing like their tweet about the new uniforms coming, they’re not likely looking to trade them. I’m sure sometimes it happens, but teams don’t center marketing around a player they’re shopping.
All that said, if JJ Picollo is the guy making the decisions, it makes me ever so slightly less confident in my answer. That’s just because we don’t know what he’s going to look like as a transactional general manager. I have a hunch that he has the same thoughts about Merrifield that Dayton Moore does, but I don’t know that for certain, so that’s where it leaves me a little bit on the fence about it, but only a very little bit. Again, follow the marketing clues and it should give you the answer.
As for Manaea, a trade for a pitcher with one more year of control can be a tricky one. The White Sox traded Dane Dunning, a first round pick who they liked, for Lance Lynn before last season. Now, Lynn was better then than Manaea is now, so that’s probably more than the Royals would have to give up. Finding pitchers who were traded with one year left is a tough task apparently because there aren’t many, at least not who are quality starters. That’s likely because the offers typically aren’t too great and teams decide they want to keep the pitcher and just get the draft pick from a qualifying offer.
That said, we know the ceiling is a back half of a top 100 prospect list because that's what Lynn brought back and, again, Manaea isn’t as good as Lynn, so I’d say you’re looking at something like Jonathan Bowlan or Jon Heasley if they want pitching or maybe Nick Loftin if they want a bat added with someone like maybe a Zach Haake. That’s not a hard and fast, but guys in those general prospect spots in the Royals rankings. It’s a deal the Royals could easily absorb prospect-wise.
The issue with signing him to an extension is that most players who get to that final year before free agency don’t want to give up the option to test free agency. Manaea will be 31 entering the 2023 season, so he’s two years older than Rodriguez, who we talked about above. And assuming his platform season is similar to the rest, he’s better than Rodriguez. So he probably loses a year on his contract, but likely makes more money. Hyun Jin Ryu signed a four-year deal at 33 with the Blue Jays for $80 million.
Ryu was better than Manaea at that time, but the age might even some things out. I’d guess Manaea will require about four years and somewhere between $18 and $20 million per year. I’m not sure the Royals would be willing to give that to him if they made a deal, though I’m also not sure if they shouldn’t.
Woo, this is a tough one so early. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb, though, when I say it probably won’t be too terribly surprising. But…here goes.
Merrifield 2B
Lopez SS
Perez C
Benintendi LF
Avisail Garcia RF
Santana 1B
Witt 3B
Melendez DH
Taylor CF
I think they make one move and it’s to sign an outfielder. Garcia is the one who makes the most sense for them, but they’re reportedly interested in Seiya Suzuki as well out of Japan. I think the odds of them signing him are pretty slim, but hey, they’ll get after it. I’m not entirely sure I fully believe that MJ Melendez will be in the Opening Day lineup, but I think it’s possible and it’s more fun this way. Of course, I also think that Adalberto Mondesi has a great case to be there if he’s healthy (big if, obviously), so maybe I’m getting ahead of myself.
I would probably start the season with Santana on the bench, if we’re looking at things to change, but as far as an Opening Day lineup goes, you’re using mostly data from the previous season and the top of that lineup makes the most sense based on what we know from 2021. I’m not completely convinced that Nicky Lopez will maintain what he did in 2021 or that Merrifield will stave off regression enough to stay at the top of the lineup, so there’s room for maneuvering. And if Witt and Melendez hit the way they did in AAA, they’ll find themselves moving up the lineup quickly (and likely joined by Pratto at some point).
I think a lot of people would be frustrated by Witt and Melendez at seven and eight, but I think it makes a lot of sense. It’s nice to not have to put a huge strain on a young player. It’s a long, long season, so hitting at the bottom for a couple weeks while they get acclimated to the big leagues isn’t the worst thing in the world. The odds it would cost a game aren’t exactly huge.
As much as I would love to add Manea, and would like to aquire him, only if we could extend for about 5 years. But, all things being equal I personally would like a righty. I think we are going to be pretty left handed strong wit Bubic and Lynch sticking as starters. As a result I would rather go after Bassitt, if we could extend him for 4 or 5 years.
I hope they do not let Santana drag us down for too long at 1B or, better yet, it really was because of his injury, he rakes, and we get something for him when Pratto is breaking the door down. You raise a very interesting question, if we do get a legit RF, as to where Mondi who, perhaps besides Witt, is the most talented position player on our team, IF healthy, will play. I do not see keeping our Acuna/Tatis guy blocked, or on the bench, if he can finally take off a la Byron Buxton, as I believe he should be given the chance to do. I wonder if, as a result, we do not sign an Avisail, and instead have Mondi or Whit go to RF, with Isbel as legit backup guy?