Let's Liven Up This Royals Offseason

The Royals haven't done much, but that doesn't mean there still isn't time.

This offseason has been pretty fun for baseball fans. For Royals fans, not as much. While I do understand the mindset they’ve had (for the most part), it’s still more fun to see some action. And while I’m not sure there are even five or six moves if all done that could bring the Royals to contention, I do think there are some moves they could move to bolster this team. I might get more into this tomorrow in Crown Jewels, but I will say that I think there might be some improvement simply from the changes in the dugout that we don’t realize are possible with the way the team was run last season. So maybe it’s not quite as far away as the win/loss numbers seem, but even so, this team isn’t going to compete in 2023 without some big-time improvements around the diamond. But, again, it doesn’t mean we can’t have a little fun along the way.

I’m going to get ahead of this. I don’t expect the Royals to do any of this. They might and that would be cool, but I don’t see much happening. I’m aware of this. But an exciting offseason around baseball has brought Royals fans Ryan Yarbrough, Jordan Lyles and a bunch of non-tender candidates not getting non-tendered, so I wanted to have a little fun. Now that we’re past that, let’s turn this Royals winter from a snoozefest to something a little more interesting.

Move #1: Trade for Eric Lauer

This move was originally going to be to take on the James McCann contract as a way to get Carlos Carrasco and then the Mets went and traded McCann and a bunch of money to the Orioles to ruin that dream for me. I still would love to find a way to get Carlos Carrasco from them as he’s been rumored to be on the move, but I think they’re less likely to trade him without some salary relief elsewhere for a package I’d be okay with the Royals giving up.

So I pivot! And I go back to a candidate who I have discussed before - Eric Lauer. The Brewers don’t get a ton of credit for being as transactional as some of their other analytical counterparts, but they’ll make moves if they think they can help the team (and sometimes, okay often, to save a little money). As I wrote back a few weeks ago, Lauer is set to make some money for the first time. He made roughly $2.4 million last year but is projected to sit at $5.2 million with another year of arbitration behind that. It’s pretty conceivable he’ll get around $10 million in 2023. Obviously, two years at $15 million or so is not something any team should balk at, but Lauer is in that sweet spot for a team like the Brewers to maybe want to move him now.

He’s not good enough to get a qualifying offer when he reaches free agency, but he’s too good to just let walk for nothing. So you move a guy like him when he has the most value with two years left, especially when you have Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby already on the staff with Adrian Houser already in the big league bullpen and pitchers like Robert Gasser, Ethan Small, Janson Junk and others basically big league ready. The Brewers lineup is one that I don’t think can compete very well. Maybe I’m wrong, but I just see a lot of meh outside of a few names. Don’t get me wrong, someone like Jesse Winker can bounce back and Brice Turang could be good from the jump and Luis Urias is fine, but I just don’t see it.

This wouldn’t be a trade where the Royals can just fleece the Brewers, but maybe this is a spot where they can include Nick Pratto. I guess a guy who hit like Pratto did in the big leagues doesn’t make their lineup that much better on paper and maybe a guy like Lauer isn’t enough for a former top prospect, but we’re just spitballing here. The top of the Brewers system is loaded with outfielders, but they very much lack any infield help. And maybe one of the 2018 pitchers is included in this deal as well to help maintain their pitching depth. I know I’m supposed to be showing the whole picture, but the return isn’t that important for this discussion. I just want them to find a way to get Lauer.

In the last two years in Milwaukee, he’s turned into a legitimately solid starting pitcher. He’s thrown 277.1 innings with a 3.47 ERA and a 4.30 FIP, but he strikes enough guys out, limits walks well enough and generally has been what you want from a starting pitcher. You could slot him in behind Brady Singer and with Daniel Lynch (who I think breaks out in 2023 with the new coaching) and I think you have the makings of a very good front end of the rotation. I think there are some concerns about Lauer maintaining the level of production he’s had over the last two seasons, but I also don’t think he’s a huge risk to be horrible either. Even in his first two years with the Padres, he was serviceable. So it’s a risk in some ways, but one I’d take.

If Lauer isn’t your flavor, I’d also maybe explore something for Chris Flexen (a little too much of the low strikeout profile for my tastes) or Jeffrey Springs. I’d love to get one of the Marlins better starters, but I just don’t think they’re moving anyone for anything less than a haul.

Moves #2 and #3: Sign Michael Fulmer and Craig Kimbrel

It would not surprise me in the least if the Royals bullpen ended up a strength in 2023. If they hang on to Scott Barlow, we know he’s good. Dylan Coleman has the obvious stuff, but from June 1 on, he threw 47.2 innings with 34 hits allowed and 47 strikeouts. His 10.2 percent walk rate was a bit high, but his 1.13 WHIP will certainly play. Taylor Clarke pitched well, but should be a middle reliever, not a leverage arm. Amir Garrett was great against lefties. Anthony Misiewicz looked surprisingly good and Josh Staumont isn’t far removed from being dominant. So the bullpen could be very good. Richard Lovelady showed a lot in 2021 before getting hurt. But they could definitely use more.

I don’t think Fulmer is a closer, but he’s been good in the bullpen since shifting there for the 2021 season. While his average velocity took a hit last year, he still posted a 3.39 ERA, 3.57 FIP and 3.78 xERA. He was extremely slider forward last year, throwing it 63.4 percent of the time compared to 40 percent in 2021 and I’d think it would be a good idea to back off that a little bit, even though it’s an excellent pitch. I think his four-seam fastball is good enough to feature a little more often than he did and it got a whiff percentage of 31.9 in 2022. Brian Sweeney seems like the type who can tweak some pitch usage and maybe some other things to help a guy like Fulmer find his full potential.

Kimbrel may not be a closer anymore either, but add him to the back of the bullpen with Barlow, Coleman and Fulmer and you have to feel good about leads. I’d let Kimbrel work as the closer to let Barlow work as the fireman personally, but I don’t think it especially matters much. If the Royals want to be “transactional,” having Barlow, Fulmer and Kimbrel as potential trade pieces at the deadline could net them a pretty strong return.

I’d anticipate Fulmer costing somewhere around $4 or $5 million and Kimbrel might fetch more like $8 million, though I’m just guessing here. Kimbrel saw his strikeout rate crater as his velocity fell to the lowest it’s been in his entire career. But he still posted a 3.75 ERA, 3.23 FIP and 3.51 xERA. He still gave up just 51 hits in 60 innings and struck out 72. He’s certainly no longer great, but if he wants a chance to close, the Royals could give him that with Barlow willing to do whatever.

Move #4: Trade Adalberto Mondesi (and some more) for Gio Urshela

The Angels, this offseason, have added Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela to their lineup. They’ll join Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and hopefully Anthony Rendon with Taylor Ward, who may or may not be good, to form a pretty solid lineup. The only issue is that the idea apparently is to use Urshela at shortstop. That seems…bad. Urshela has a defensive reputation that doesn’t match the numbers or the eye test. I don’t think he’s bad, but he’s more fine than anything else at third. And fine at third leads to potentially bad at shortstop.

Now, Rendon’s injury history the last few years makes it nice to have a backup option, but Drury is there now, presumably to play second? The Angels already have Luis Rengifo, who had a nice second half, but he’s not a great defender and still has a career OBP of .294 and in his best year posted an OBP of .294. Mondesi, of course, isn’t any better (in fact he’s worse), but he is a legitimately good defensive shortstop, which is something the Angels could use at least on the bench. I just don’t see a fit for Urshela with a healthy team given that the DH spot is for Ohtani and I think it’s a move that makes sense for the Royals as a team who could use a right-handed bat and don’t really have a third baseman.

So give them Mondesi, get a third baseman who hit .285/.338/.429 last season and has hit .290/.336/.463 for a 118 wRC+ since 2019. It’ll take more than Mondesi but I wouldn’t give up too terribly much for a player set to hit free agency following the season. Still, this could clear up a bit of a logjam for the Royals, get some value for Mondesi and find a third baseman to work as a stopgap for 2023. The Angels are lacking in top outfield prospects and while I wouldn’t give up a big bat for just Urshela or anything, maybe there’s a deal to be made there.

As of this moment, I have the Royals payroll sitting at about $82 million. The moves above would add $5.2 million for Carrasco and McCann, let’s say around $15 million for Fulmer and Kimbrel to be aggressive and a net of about $6.2 million for Urshel swapped out for Mondesi. That’s adding $26.4 million to put the payroll at about $108 million. I imagine they’d find a taker for Michael A. Taylor in these scenarios to save the $4.5 million to put them right around $103.5 million when it’s all said and done. No, they haven’t found a taker for Hunter Dozier yet, so they’re stuck with that deal. They ended 2022 at about $95 million, according to Cot’s, so it’s a slight boost and one that they can absolutely afford.

The roster after these moves is pretty interesting. You’ve got:

Salvador Perez
Freddie Fermin
Vinnie Pasquantino
Michael Massey
Nicky Lopez
Bobby Witt Jr.
Urshela
MJ Melendez
Drew Waters
Edward Olivares
Hunter Dozier
Ryan O’Hearn
Nate Eaton

Brady Singer
Eric Lauer
Daniel Lynch
Jordan Lyles
Brad Keller
Kimbrel
Barlow
Coleman
Clarke
Staumont
Lovelady
Ryan Yarbrough
Garrett (or Carlos Hernandez or Misiewicz or Jose Cuas or Kris Bubic or Angel Zerpa, etc.)

It builds some very nice depth in the organization while potentially providing some pieces that could catch lightning in a bottle (less likely) or be moved in July (more likely) to help the team in the future. I had a conversation on Twitter yesterday about acquiring talented players whether you keep them for three months or 10 years. I think that makes sense. Talent leads to more talent. Build some depth, bring in some talent and things can accelerate quickly.

What are the odds any of this happens? Pretty slim. What are the odds it all happens? It’s gotta be close to zero. But it would be fun and interesting! And, at this point, fun and interesting sounds pretty good to me.