Let's Place Some Veterans Elsewhere

The Royals have been quiet (okay, silent) this off-season, but they have some moves to make yet.

Look, I know you’re going to laugh at the premise of this because the Royals haven’t done anything yet. But the fact remains that what I wrote more than three months ago remains true - this roster doesn’t work. The pitching staff needs additions, and I’ll get to that, but there are a few players on this roster who could and should have value to some other teams looking for a boost to various aspects of their roster. I know it seems odd that a team coming off 67 wins could find themselves in a position to help out contenders, but just because someone isn’t great in a starting role doesn’t mean they can’t be extremely useful as a reserve.

And with all the inactivity, I’m sure one of the first comments is going to be that this is all a fantasy to think they’ll do anything. But instead of that, let’s just indulge the fantasy and see if we can’t find a new home for a few Royals who have overstayed their welcome, have been pushed aside by young talent or simply have too much value to not move. I’m also not including Brady Singer or Salvador Perez because, well, people already got enough about that on Friday! I’ll go alphabetically here.

Scott Barlow

Top-end relievers are wasted on bad teams. But sometimes young, bad teams need to see their leads protected as an aid in development. So I see it both ways with Barlow. Over the last two seasons, the Royals closer has a 2.30 ERA in 148.2 innings with 113 hits allowed, 168 strikeouts and 50 walks. He has a 3.13 FIP and an xERA in that range as well. In some ways, we may have already seen some decline from Barlow. His average fastball velocity was down a good chunk in 2022 compared to 2021. He struck out fewer hitters, but also walked fewer. He also saw more of his fly balls become home runs.

Are the Royals too late on trading him? It wouldn't be the first time they’ve held on to someone too long, but I don’t think they are because the numbers are still very good. I’m pretty sure Barlow is better utilized as a leverage reliever than as a true closer anyway. Looking at some of the free agent signings out there, guys like Chris Martin (2/$17.5 million), Matt Strahm (2/$15 million), Carlos Estevez (2/$13.5 million), Trevor Williams (2/$13 million) represent pitchers who have, at best, been Barlow’s equal and mostly haven’t held a candle to him for prices that likely exceed what Barlow will be paid over the next two seasons.

I don’t think there’s a team in baseball that couldn’t use him. Most contenders have quality bullpens. That’s something that makes them a contender. But a team like the Cubs could be interested in an upgrade. Maybe the Red Sox would want to pair Barlow with their newly acquired Kenley Jansen who does need some time off here adn there. I could see the Angels in the market for a reliever after they dumped Raisel Iglesias for nothing. The Rangers could go double Barlow in their bullpen. I wonder if the Brewers would want to add him to replace Taylor Rogers. Heck, add in the Mets, Orioles, Phillies, Dodgers and even the Padres to the mix of possibilities here.

Best fits: Everyone, but specifically the Phillies, Orioles, Rangers, Cardinals, Giants, Brewers, Angels, Red Sox, Cubs

It’s hard to go team-by-team here, but the Cardinals need some bullpen help in a bad way. The Giants have been rumored to be in on some closers, so Barlow could lengthen their relief group, especially if they aren’t able to add a starter. I think any of the above teams make a lot of sense for a guy like Barlow because, again, he can slot anywhere in a bullpen.

Of all the players on this list, Barlow is the one who brings back the most. The only real issue here is that relievers are often traded mid-season more than the offseason and when they are traded in the offseason, it’s a lot later in the game. Relievers are, by nature, volatile, but Barlow has been remarkably consistent as a very good, though not great, reliever throughout his big league career. He’s shown greatness at times, but even if he’s a a 26 percent strikeout guy and a 9 percent walk guy instead of 30/7, he’s still a very good bet for someone.

If you’re looking for framework on a deal, Joe Jimenez was just traded coming off an arguably better year by peripherals but with just one year left. He fetched the Braves’ number six prospect as rated by Baseball America and a lesser pitching prospect. I think the extra year and the longer track record could bring back a similar top-end on the return but with an additional top-20 prospect as well. I don’t know if the Orioles would do it, but they’ve got a nice mix of prospects who the Royals could potentially covet.

Hunter Dozier

Trading Dozier seems pretty close to impossible, but that doesn’t mean it actually is impossible. He was very good offensively in 2019, hitting .279/.348/.522, which was good for a 123 wRC+. He struggled some in 2020, but his patience at the plate got him to a 103 wRC+. It’s been a disaster since then. He was at 81 in 2021 and 90 last season. What’s interesting is that he actually finished pretty strong in 2021, hitting .261/.331/.449 for a 109 wRC+ and started pretty strong in 2022, hitting .265/.327/.445 with a 117 wRC+ through July 13th. That’s 575 plate appearances. Put those from April to October 2022 and you’ve got a player you can trade, but they were sandwiched between two terrible stretches.

But he wasn’t bad against lefties in 2022. And he does have the positional knowledge to stand at four different positions and know what he’s supposed to do. He’s not especially good defensively at any of them, but there’s value in that for someone, I would think. Plus, I think the state of his contract is vastly overrated. Yes, it’s a bad deal. No, it’s not back breaking. He’s owed $16.75 million the next two seasons and has a $1 million buyout in 2025. As of this moment, 75 players have an AAV on their current contract of more than the total he’s owed that can be spread out over three years. It doesn’t make the deal better, but I think it shows that it’s bad, not horrific.

Best fits: Cubs, Angels, Marlins?, Reds?

There are three ways to market Dozier if the Royals are looking to make a trade. They can either attach him to a better player to get a worse return, trade him on his own but pay down his salary that they’re going to have to pay no matter what if they don’t move him and get something in return or dump him for very little and hope some team will take him on. The teams with money with a need against lefties are maybe the Cubs, who right now appear to have Alfonso Rivas penciled in at first base (I have never heard of him in my life, full disclosure) and the Angels, who could use a platoon partner for Jared Walsh, I suppose.

Maybe if a team gets in hot water for not spending enough, they could make a move to artificially bump their payroll a little bit too. So yeah, it’s unlikely, but it could happen I suppose.

Amir Garrett

The free agent market for lefty relievers is…not great. That doesn’t mean that teams are going to be lining up to take a shot on Garrett and his 16.3 percent walk rate, but to say he didn’t have his value would be unfair. He gave up just 28 hits in 45.1 innings. Of those 28 hits, zero were home runs and only eight were extra base hits. Oh and lefties hit .106/.253/.136 against him. Typing that makes me want to delete this and see if Brian Sweeney can fix his control issues that have plagued him his entire career, but never as bad as in 2022.

At a projected $2.6 million salary for 2023 before hitting free agency after the season, Garrett offers a pretty inexpensive potential high-end bullpen arm if he can get things figured out. He had his moments throughout the year, putting up a 1.45 ERA with six hits allowed in 18.2 innings between June 25 and August 22. Of course, he walked 12 in that time, so he had to strand a lot of runners. But this is who he is and given a likely light acquisition cost and a light number in terms of salary, I could see plenty of teams interested in him to build out their middle relief group.

Best fits: Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, Orioles, Mets, White Sox, Rangers, Brewers

I’m not going to go team by team here, but these were the teams that have sights on contending who gave up the highest wOBA to lefties as a bullpen in 2022. Some moves have been made to counteract these, but I could see him being a big help on any of these teams. Similar to what the Royals gave up to get him (Mike Minor), I wonder if the Royals would entertain someone like Anthony DeSclafani in return for Garrett. That would clear a little salary from the Giants, but he was great for them in 2021 and would be huge in the Royals rotation. I also still think Eric Lauer from the Brewers could be a great fit for the Royals, but this feels like the wrong deal to get him.

Brad Keller

I think it’s easy to see Brad Keller for an estimated $7 million and think there’s no way anyone would give that up. But look at some of the one-year deal pitchers have signed over the last few offseasons coming off rough years:

James Paxton - $10 million
Andrew Heaney - $8.5 million
Michael Wacha - $7 million
Anthony DeSclafani - $6 million
Martin Perez - $5 million
Chris Archer - $6.5 million
Rick Porcello - $10 million
Kevin Gausman - $9 million

Some are not like Keller, but the point is that teams will risk a decent amount on someone who was once good to see if they can be good again. While it was hard to figure out how he did it, Keller did post a 3.50 ERA in 360.1 innings with not very many hits allowed, very few home runs and a reasonable 3.90 FIP. Kind of like the Garrett entry, typing this has made me think that maybe a new pitching coach with him makes it worth it to give it another shot in the rotation.

And, as of right now, I think he kind of has to be a starter in 2023 with the lack of depth they currently have. But if they moved him, I think there are more than a few teams who could find themselves interested just in the shot to revive him to being the soft contact guy he was for years with the hopes that they can build on his slider to get more swing and miss.

Best fits: Orioles, Red Sox, Angels, A’s, Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Pirates, Dodgers, Rockies

For the majority of the teams above, I think they’d see Keller as depth that could be more if they can unlock something. For some of the teams, I think they’d see him as innings for a relatively inexpensive price. And for some, they might see him as innings, but also as someone who they could maybe move at the deadline as well if they can get three or four good months from him. The return would likely be someone we don’t speak much of again, but I think it’s wise to take flyers when you can get them on guys who aren’t part of your future.

Adalberto Mondesi

I go back and forth between thinking Mondesi is getting traded as soon as the shortstop carousel stops and believing the Royals are going to ride him all year (or until he gets hurt, which, well, that’s more likely). But there’s interesting value here for a team that might want a better defender who does have some offensive upside in spite of the fact that he has shown what he is for years. Looking in the bottom 10 of teams in shortstop defense rated by the Fangraphs Def metric (the combination of value relative to positional average and positional value relative to other positions), the contenders include the Mariners, Blue Jays, Rays, Guardians, Twins, Phillies and Yankees.

The Mariners trade for Kolton Wong keeps JP Crawford at shortstop, so they’re likely out. The Blue Jays love Bo Bichette, so they’re out. The Rays have a million options, but I guess you can never discount them. The Guardians seem like an unlikely trade partner, though I guess it’s possible if they move Amed Rosario and want to replace him with someone who is a better defender who they can get for less. I could see the Twins interested, I guess. The Phillies signed Trea Turner, so they’re out and the Yankees, well they make some sense.

Some other teams who are interesting include the Angels, Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, Rockies and the Braves.

Best fits: Yankees, Braves, Astros, Red Sox, Rockies, Angels

If the Yankees are wanting to hold the shortstop spot open for one of their top prospects who might be ready pretty quickly, Mondesi makes some sense here if they don’t believe in Oswald Peraza’s .306/.404/.429 debut in 57 plate appearances.

The Braves are super interesting to me here. They obviously still are in on Dansby Swanson and maybe even Carlos Correa. Plus, they have Vaughn Grissom, who they publicly say they’re ready to turn the position over to, but who knows if that’s true? If they miss out on one of the free agent shortstops, they could be in play for another switch hitter to add to the bottom of their lineup and pair with Ozzie Albies up the middle. They also do have Orlando Arcia, so maybe they’re stocked well enough or maybe they’re a team with enough depth to handle an inevitable injury?

The others aren’t quite as clear-cut. The Angels don’t have a true shortstop right now, though I think they’ll want Gio Urshela to play so maybe Mondesi is a strong backup middle infielder there who can come in for defense and start around the infield with Anthony Rendon’s health not great the last few years. The Red Sox might not love the idea of moving Trevor Story back to shortstop with his throwing arm issues, so Mondesi could be a stopgap there. The Rockies always do weird things. The Astros don’t quite add up, but they did lose Aledmys Diaz and I could see them looking at Mondesi as a potential replacement there if he’s willing to play some outfield in Houston.

Michael A. Taylor

I’m finishing this with the player who is probably the most likely to be traded of this whole group because his last name comes last alphabetically. Taylor put together a reasonably valuable season, especially given his light $4.5 million pricetag, in 2022. His .254/.313/.357 line was his best average and OBP since 2017 and his walk rate was the highest of his career while his strikeout rate was the lowest. He did all of that while playing outstanding defense in center field again putting up 19 defensive runs saved for the second consecutive year. Statcast’s outs above average (OAA) didn’t love him as much, but he was still above average there as well.

I think the overall line is one that may overrate what someone might expect offensively because he started off the season so well that it carried his numbers through a rough finish, but a team with a high-powered offense could use him every day as a great defender and a team with some defensive deficiencies could use him as a late-inning sub who isn’t a complete zero with the bat if his spot comes up again. Some of the worst teams defensively in center field by Def include the Rockies, Cubs, Tigers, Marlins, White Sox, Pirates, Reds, Red Sox, Giants, Angels, Phillies, Athletics, Blue Jays, Mariners and Mets.

In that list, the Cubs appear to be trying to compete in 2023, as do the White Sox, Giants, Phillies, Blue Jays, Mariners and Mets. The Blue Jays addressed their defensive issues with Kevin Kiermaier, who probably fits them better, but notably had an identical 90 wRC+ to Taylor in 2022. The Mets just gave Brandon Nimmo a boatload of money. The Mariners have Julio Rodriguez. And the Phillies addressed their issue at the trade deadline with Brandon Marsh, but they were just so bad before it that the numbers couldn’t catch up.

Best fits: White Sox, Cubs, Giants, Mets

The White Sox currently have Luis Robert in center, who is very good or at last has been. And then the rest of their outfield is Gavin Sheets, Leury Garcia, Victor Reyes and Oscar Colas with Eloy Jimenez masquerading as a potential outfielder as well. They could still make another signing, but as of now, Taylor would be a great fit on the bench as their Adam Engel replacement.

The Cubs signed Cody Bellinger to play center, which is great and they’ve got a lot of outfielders, but I could see them wanting some additional defense. The Giants do have Austin Slater, but they don’t have a true defensive stud who could work off the bench. Their roster might be full, but I could see it. And even with a very good starting outfield, Khalil Lee is currently the Mets’ fourth outfielder. I’d bet on them being more than happy to have a better defender in that spot.

I’d say the odds the Royals trade one of these six is pretty high. But if you ask me about two, I’d drop those odds considerably, though they will find themselves with a need to make at least one roster move if and when they sign Zack Greinke. The likelihood that they go into 2023 without making a single external move is quite slim and one way they can clear the space they’ll need to clear is with a trade of some players who are either worth a lot on the trade market or not worth a lot on this particular roster.