Let's Talk About What We've Learned

Spring training is quite insightful...but it's also tough to draw conclusions

The Royals spring schedule of 28 games is now down to 11 remaining. You can make a strong argument that the next five or six will tell more than many of the first 17 did as regulars get their week of full-time action and the starters are revved up to go five or six innings (or three in almost 80 pitches like Brad Keller on Tuesday). But that doesn’t mean we haven’t learned a thing or two over the first two and a half weeks of games. 

The Offense Has a Chance to Really Click...But There Are Issues

We’ve talked a lot about the length of the Royals lineup being extended with the additions of Carlos Santana and Andrew Benintendi, but we’ve seen it in action during spring training. I don’t care about the goofy team stats in the random sample that is Arizona, but in watching this team, I think it’s clear they have a chance to be well-rounded and, dare I say it, good offensively. 

They can run with guys like Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Michael A. Taylor, Nicky Lopez and Hunter Dozier (don’t forget that he’s faster than you think). Oh and if that Bobby Witt, Jr. guy makes the team, he can run too. They can mash with guys like Jorge Soler, Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez and Dozier again. They can work a walk with guys like Benintendi, Santana, Lopez and Soler. They can even avoid the strikeout with guys like Merrifield, Benintendi, Lopez, Santana and even Perez a little bit. 

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And we’ve seen a lot of that this spring. We’ve also seen what things can look like if the issues crop up. We’ve seen games with a ton of strikeouts, and if you look at the strikeout rate of some of the starters on the team, you can start to see some concern. There are obvious sample size issues, but take a look at some of these strikeout rates:

Nicky Lopez - 35.7%
Jorge Soler - 33.3%
Hunter Dozier - 32.0%
Andrew Benintendi - 28.6%
Bobby Witt, Jr. - 28.6%
Adalberto Mondesi - 25.0%
Salvador Perez - 24.0%

You may notice some of the guys who aren’t supposed to strike out are striking out. Is it a cold stretch or is it an issue that is likely to rear its head during the season? We don’t know that yet, but it’s clearly something that could cause issues. It’s not all bad on that front. Hanser Alberto hasn’t even struck out once while Santana and Merrifield have been great at limiting the strikeout. Still, this is worth keeping an eye on.

There Are Young Arms Galore...But Young Pitching Can Struggle

We haven’t seen all of them at the big league level yet, but this spring has shown the Royals have an awful lot of young arms. Brady Singer and Kris Bubic made their debut last year and held their own but also thrived at times. We saw Josh Staumont and Kyle Zimmer play key roles (okay, they’re not as much super young as inexperienced, but still). We got a glimpse of Carlos Hernandez last year and his big fastball. 

This spring, it’s been even more of them. Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar and Austin Cox and Jon Heasley and Alec Marsh and Jonathan Bowlan and Angel Zerpa have all pitched in big league camp. They’re on their way and they aren’t the only ones. A guy like Ronald Bolaños, who came over in the Tim Hill deal before last summer and was ranked in the middle of a very good San Diego Padres system is a bit of an afterthought now. 

It’s been hit or miss with many of them. Bubic has struggled enough that I’ve taken him off my latest roster projection. Kowar has shown that his fastball really needs a wrinkle or else it’s going to get hit consistently. Hernandez has had some issues with home runs, both last season and this spring. Singer has been pretty fantastic this spring, but it’s easy to forget how volatile young arms can be as they learn. The future is very bright for this pitching staff, but it’s easy to see how there can be some bumps in the road.

Everyone Loves Bobby Witt, Jr….But Is He Ready?

It seems like every time Witt has taken the field, there’s been a highlight. He’s hit a ball 484 feet, scored from second on a ground ball that barely left the infield, turned on an inside fastball and cranked it over the wall, worked a 12-pitch walk after falling behind a legitimately good pitcher 0-2 and has just been heady and generally unfazed by the fact that he has never played a professional game above rookie ball. And the numbers are good. He’s hitting .303/.343/.576 with three home runs. 

But against pitchers who have ever even appeared in the majors, he’s 6 for 25 with two home runs and a walk. I didn’t count up the strikeouts, but there were quite a few. And remember, these aren’t legitimate MLB pitchers. These are guys who have thrown a big league pitch at any time in their careers. Witt is supremely talented, but I think the best move for him is to start the season in the minors (okay, the alternate site) and just keep on mashing to get called up relatively soon. 

I’ve said this before, but it’s not about anybody but him. If Lopez isn’t good enough to start at second, that doesn’t mean Witt should be the guy unless Witt is 100 percent ready himself. I am so excited about Witt’s future as a big leaguer, but I have my questions as to whether he’s ready to start that time in two weeks. But hey, these next few games are likely to be some of the closest comparisons to regular season games you’ll see with pitchers going deeper and players not exiting as early as they had so far this spring, so maybe he’ll show he is ready. Time will tell. 

You All Are Awesome...No Buts About It

I started this newsletter right after pitchers and catchers reported and was super excited to get back to just writing about the Royals for myself. It’s not that I haven’t loved writing for Baseball Prospectus and Royals Review (and I’m still writing at Royals Review!), but I wanted to get back to my roots of just writing and it’s been amazing. Everyone who has subscribed, read, shared, commented or all of the above has just been amazing and I’ve really been taken aback by how well received this has been. So thank you all for that. I’m looking forward to the season!