Looking Ahead: 40-Man Roster Decisions

While there are plenty of players on the Royals who have no business on a 40-man, there are decisions every year.

It may be a little early to start looking at things of these nature, but given that the trade deadline is less than five weeks away, the state of the Royals 40-man roster is worth taking a look at before the trading gets hot and heavy. For those who don’t know, players who were signed at 18 or younger need to be added to the 40-man roster within five seasons or else they’re exposed to the Rule 5 draft. Players who sign at 19 or older have to be added within four seasons. So that’s why you see players like Jonathan Bowlan getting added after last season even though he’s out for a ton of the year after having Tommy John Surgery last season.

So now that we have that of the way, we can examine the current Royals 40-man roster situation. They currently have a full roster. Actually, they have more than a full roster. With Joel Payamps currently on the Covid-IL (for now), they have 41 players because players on the Covid-IL don’t count against the 40-man. It’ll be interesting to see who goes when Payamps gets back, but not counting him, two of those 40 - Zack Greinke and Andrew Benintendi - are scheduled to be free agents after the season. I’m working under the assumption that Benintendi will be traded, but until then, he’s part of this roster.

There are also currently three players on the 60-day IL - Jake Brentz, Adalberto Mondesi and Tyler Zuber. They also don’t count against the 40-man while they’re on that list, but they’ll need to be reinstated at the end of the season even if they don’t come back at all. So they’re already finding themselves in a bit of a mathematical bind, but those things tend to work themselves out pretty well. That’s because there are quite a few players who are at least likely to be considered for a DFA during the season or a non-tender after:

• Jake Brentz

• Taylor Clarke

• Amir Garrett

• Foster Griffin

• Daniel Mengden

• Adalberto Mondesi

• Ryan O’Hearn

• Matt Peacock

• Emmanuel Rivera

• Sebastian Rivero

• Collin Snider

• Angel Zerpa

• Tyler Zuber

That’s 13 names off the 40-man who will get some consideration of whether they should be on the roster moving forward. Not all will go and many will likely not even get serious consideration. But these are the names to watch. I mention all of them because I always like to look at the players who are going to be Rule 5 eligible following the season and wondering how much room there is for them.

This isn’t last season. There aren’t a ton of obvious adds from the system. I think we can safely say that Alec Marsh, Michael Massey and Drew Parrish will be added if they aren’t before the end of the season. While Marsh has struggled this season, a 24-year old in AA with a 32.3 percent strikeout would absolutely get picked in the Rule 5 draft. Additionally, he may have the highest upside of any pitcher in the Royals system, so he’s absolutely getting added.

Massey is intriguing. He’s hitting the cover off the ball in AAA after hitting .305/.359/.496 in AA. He’s also a legitimately good defender at second base where he won a Gold Glove last season in high-A. I’ve mentioned before that a scout has told me that he believes Massey is an impact player moving forward. That I don’t completely buy because I think he lacks the ability to draw a walk to be an impact, but he showed very good power in high-A last year with a .242 ISO and has picked that up with his promotion to Omaha.

And Parrish doesn’t have the pure stuff that we’ve seen from the majority of the young pitchers who have come up over the last couple of seasons, but he has started throwing a bit harder, getting up to the mid-90s at times. He has a very good changeup and a good enough curve that I’ve seen flash almost plus at times. I wouldn’t ever say he could be more than a number three starter consistently, but I also think he’s close enough to ready that the Royals will want to make sure they have him available while other teams would jump at the chance to take him and get a potentially decent starter right away for free.

Let’s take a look at the rest of the options.

Catcher

• Logan Porter - I’m not even sure that he should be here on this list, but he’s hit well in AA this year. He’s also 26 and will turn 27 in a couple of weeks. He shouldn’t be added.

Infield

• Clay Dungan - He was a ninth round pick in 2019, so he’s pretty fresh on the scene. The Royals like his professional approach and he played second, third and short in AA last year and has played second, third, short and outfield in Omaha this year. The problem is that his bat has regressed some, but he doesn’t swing and miss and he can work a walk. He’s also had a pretty great June. I don’t think he needs to be protected, but he’s one of those who you never know with this organization because they always surprise us.

• Nate Eaton - Eaton came around in the 2018 draft, and showed out in the 2021 Arizona Fall League. He’s flashed some real power in Omaha and can play multiple positions. I don’t know if Eaton can be a regular at all, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he gets an add at some point between now and the deadline to add players.

• Jake Means - To be honest, Means probably doesn’t even belong on this list the way that he’s hit this year, but I’ve always been a fan and feel like there’s something in there that someone can bring out. I can’t imagine a team will take him, so they shouldn’t add him to the 40-man and I don’t they will, but I’m still a fan even if the numbers don’t agree.

Outfield

• Darryl Collins - I’m a fan of what the prospect from the Netherlands can do, but he’ll be 21 next season, hasn’t played above low-A and the power simply hasn’t come yet. He does a great job of recognizing pitches, but until he hits with any authority, he’s an irrelevant prospect. I’m not saying I’d give up on him, but a team won’t select him, so there’s no reason to waste the 40-man spot.

• Seuly Matias - This is the third year for Matias to be Rule 5 eligible. And he hasn’t been added to the 40-man yet or taken, so maybe this is silly. Still, the power is very real and with the roster maximum for number of pitchers, I sometimes wonder if a team would take a guy like him who can hit the ball a million miles. Based on history and his performance this season, I doubt they’ll add him and I wouldn’t either.

• John Rave - This is the position player who might be the most intriguing to me. Rave can handle center field and while he’s taken a bit of a step back offensively this year, he did unlock something last season. He hit .270/.364/.468 in his last 72 games. That hasn’t fully continued this year, but he’s still working walks and not striking out all that often. A lot of this will depend on some of his progress as the season goes on, but he could easily find himself on the 40-man roster come November, especially with the lack of outfield options at the upper levels.

Pitchers

• Jonah Dipoto - Jonah is the son of the Mariners GM, Jerry, and was drafted in the 35th round in 2019. That round no longer exists, which stinks, but he’s shown some very real potential in AA this season. He has a hard sinker and a good slider. The control is an issue, but he gets tons of strikeouts and doesn’t give up many hits. I would much rather see him get chances than Collin Snider.

• Josh Dye - Coming into play yesterday, Dye had struck out 33 and walked three in 31.2 innings in AAA. He has a funky delivery, which teams tend to like in the Rule 5. That said, he was coming off a better year last season and they didn’t protect him. He’s a possibility, but I honestly don’t know where I or the Royals stand.

• Kasey Kalich - He was a fourth-round pick in the 2019 draft and came to the Royals in exchange for Jorge Soler at the deadline. Kalich has a hard fastball and a hard slider and if it all clicks, he’s a back-of-the-bullpen arm. So far, he’s done a nice enough job of limiting hits and a great job of limiting home runs. The command needs to get better, but there isn’t much question about the stuff.

• Anthony Veneziano - Can you imagine a big league roster with Veneziano and Vinnie Pasquantino? I’m sold. No explanation necessary. But if you have to have one, sure. He’s very tall and that can cause hitters problems because of how much is coming toward them when he pitches. When you combine that with mid-90s velocity that can sometimes touch triple digits, well that’s pretty special. His slider is already good and his changeup is coming along. Maybe I’m too high on him, but I think they’ll protect him. Even with bad numbers, the stuff is too good at a level too close to the big leagues to risk it.

If I had to guess right now, thinking the way the Royals do, I’d say they end up adding Eaton, Rave, Dipoto/Kalich and Veneziano, but the pitching side wouldn’t surprise me if any of them are or aren’t included. So that’s six names total, which means there’s a much-needed 40-man overhaul coming throughout the rest of this season and into the offseason.

Cover Photo of Nate Eaton by Minda Haas Kuhlmann