Looking Way Ahead to the 2024 Offseason

The Royals have done a lot of work this winter, but most of it is very short term.

To sit here in late December 2023 and start thinking ahead to the next offseason might seem to be a bit silly. But a good organization doesn’t just think in terms of what’s directly ahead of them but also what’s down the road. What the Royals have done this offseason is pretty crazy, adding more payroll than they’ve ever added before in a season in free agency. But as I wrote last week, I still think they’re a fourth place team and while their additions could allow them to contend in a weak division, they aren’t anything that will make them long-term favorites. And that’s okay!

Because what they’ve done has allowed them to compete at worst and contend at best and they’ve done it all without sacrificing any sort of long-term flexibility or any of their few potential impact prospects. This is the way for a team in the position the Royals are in. When you aren’t going to spend top of the market money and your farm system is devoid of obvious impact talent, signing mid-tier free agents in a bad division is the exact right play. If the evaluation season was step one and what they’ve done this winter is step two, then next offseason is step three. They need to be competitive enough in 2024 and turn a corner in 2025, which makes next offseason remarkably important.

Payroll and Money Off the Books

We can start with their payroll situation. The Royals currently have two players under guaranteed contracts for the 2025 season - Salvador Perez and Seth Lugo. That doesn’t mean others won’t be there. As it stands right now, Nick Anderson, Jake Brentz, Kris Bubic, Carlos Hernandez, Daniel Lynch IV, MJ Melendez, Brady Singer, Josh Taylor, Bobby Witt Jr. and Kyle Wright will all be arbitration-eligible. They also have Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton and Michael Wacha on player options for 2025 who may or may not exercise those.

Regardless, they have $37 million guaranteed to two players and then a very early arbitration estimate for those nine players has them spending another $40-ish million on that group. Add in the $27 million on the three with player options and you can see how the payroll can jump pretty quickly. That said, Garrett Hampson, Jordan Lyles and Will Smith will be free agents after the season and Hunter Dozier’s $9 million comes off the books. That frees up $24.5 million. If none of the guys they’ve signed this year with player options choose to exercise that, it adds an additional $26 million off the books.

I think it’s a safe bet that at least one of the three opts out of their contract for 2025 and at least one of the three opts in. If it’s Wacha opting in, it’s a lot more impactful to the payroll than if it’s Renfroe or Stratton, but either way, there’s some uncertainty. Still, they’re sitting at about $108 million on the 26-man payroll right now and about $117 million for the 40-man and even if all nine arbitration-eligible players sign along with all three players opting in, their total is roughly $101 million for the 26-man roster. If you assume (rightfully or wrongfully) that the Royals will keep their foot on the gas, you’d think they’d still have another $20 million or so to spend to supplement. If all three players opt out and they only pay $25 million of the arbitration money, that number could be closer to $60 million.

The Royals have a chance to be able to play with the big boys next winter. And while you might think it’s a long shot, lower-revenue teams do this all the time. It’s a matter of being smart with it. Think about Cleveland adding Edwin Encarnacion a few years ago or the Rays relatively splurging for Zack Elfin. It also doesn’t hurt that they’ll theoretically have Perez and Lugo off the books after 2025, which is another $37 million if they wanted to backload a contract (or defer some money). Players will always need to be paid, so the money backfills pretty quickly, but the Royals have themselves in a very good situation money-wise.

Free Agent Targets

While this year was pretty rough, the 2024/2025 free agent class has a chance to be significantly better. If you’re looking for a power-hitting first baseman to pair with Vinnie Pasquantino, you can look to Pete Alonso (though I think he stays with the Mets), Josh Bell, Paul Goldschmidt or Christian Walker. Someone to play second? Brandon Lowe might be there and so might Gleyber Torres. If they don’t like what they get from Maikel Garcia, Nick Loftin or Cayden Wallace in 2024, third basemen on the market including Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suarez along with a potential shortstop to third base shift for Willy Adames.

The outfield isn’t filled with stars necessarily, but they could go after Mark Canha, Tyler O’Neill, Victor Robles, Austin Slater, Max Kepler, Anthony Santander or Alex Verdugo. And they can find a DH with Eloy Jimenez or Marcel Ozuna maybe becoming free agents if their options aren’t picked up. So offensively, there are bats to be found. But man, the free agent starting pitching market has a chance to be really fun and with so many big names, I think it’s possible that there could be a few priced in to the Royals market. These are the best starting pitchers who could be out there:

Shane Bieber
Walker Buehler
Corbin Burnes
Alex Cobb
Nathan Eovaldi
Max Fried
Andrew Heaney
Yusei Kikuchi
John Means
Nick Pivetta
Jose Quintana
Chris Sale
Max Scherzer
Luis Severino

Some are obviously considerably better than others, but there are some names on this list and I even left off a few. On relievers, they fluctuate so much year to year that I find it sort of tough to figure out who might be targets and who aren’t. Robert Stephenson hasn’t signed yet, for example, but he’s expected to get three years at $10 million per year or more. You’d have never guessed that a year ago. That said, there are some interesting names to help build a big league bullpen, both from the left side or the right side.

The point here is that no matter the spot in the market, the Royals have a chance to play and to add to their roster whether or not they lose some guys to free agency. The issue, of course, is how much they’ll need. It would be ideal if Mason Barnett and David Sandlin or Chandler Champlain and Anthony Veneziano or Ben Kudrna and Frank Mozzicato (or any combination of any two really) step up and show they can be mid-rotation starters in the big leagues. If they can, you go into 2025 without really needing to spend big on a starter. That also assumes that Cole Ragans shows that his last two months were no fluke. But if those two (or any two) don’t really step up, they might need to figure out how to get a bigger name as opposed to shopping in the Quintana/Pivetta aisle.

Offensively, we don’t even know what the team is going to look like in 2024 yet because I still think there are moves to be made. That said, let’s say they don’t trade Melendez and he has a 2024 just like his second half in 2025. And let’s say Nelson Velazquez is a legitimate 30-home run bat like he showed after the deadline. Do they really need a big bat? Those two plus Witt and Pasquantino would require complementary pieces over main pieces. However, if they both struggle, maybe they do need to acquire someone who can be a big bat for them in the middle of their lineup. Maybe the 2025 Royals version of Edwin Encarnacion needs to be Goldschmidt or something like that. So we don’t know where they’ll need to shop, but it’s nice to know that next year’s market, at this moment, looks better than the current one.

Trade Targets

While the Royals have largely relied on only spending money to bring players in, trades are also a possibility. Another year of the Mariners not scoring enough to support their strong starting rotation could lead to a deal there as they’ve already discussed this winter. Maybe they want to cut some payroll and a deal can be made for Luis Castillo (though he has a full no-trade clause through 2025). Or maybe the Mariners aren’t interested in paying for Logan Gilbert in his arbitration years. They also have Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo and George Kirby and Emerson Hancock and Tyler Cleveland and you get the idea. Let’s say that Melendez season happens but the Royals want to cash in. Here’s your spot. Well, them or the Marlins.

While their rotation depth has thinned some, the Marlins could head into 2025 with Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Sixto Sanchez, Ryan Weathers, Patrick Monteverde and Dax Fulton being joined by a returning Sandy Alcantara from injury and maybe a quick-rising Noble Meyer in their system. If the Royals have a bat to give, there is absolutely a match here without a doubt in my mind.

When looking ahead to trade options, I like to look at future free agent lists. Who will be a free agent in 2025/2026? On the starting pitching front, Jon Gray, Zack Eflin, German Marquez, Chris Paddack, Aaron Civale, Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, Dustin May and Mitch Keller are pitchers who could be available. Among bats, you could look to Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert Jr. (he has an option, but it’s the White Sox, so who knows?), Ha-seong Kim, Jorge Polanco, Austin Hays, Nicky Lopez (just making sure you’re paying attention), Kyle Tucker, Cedric Mullins, Josh Naylor and Luis Arraez could all be on the block.

The big push now is to trade guys two years out, so looking at the starters for that free agent class, you’ll find:

Jose Berrios
Dane Dunning
Kevin Gausman
Luzardo
Triston McKenzie
Freddy Peralta
Robbie Ray
Patrick Sandoval
Tarik Skubal
Jameson Taillon
Taijuan Walker

Again, not all are particularly likely for the Royals and a lot has to happen to have the ammunition to acquire, but I’m just showing what is out there. And for the bats:

Randy Arozarena
Alec Bohm
Dylan Carlson
Nick Castellanos
Jazz Chisholm
Yandy Diaz
Adolis Garcia
Ian Happ
Gavin Lux
Daulton Varsho
Andrew Vaughn
Taylor Ward

Same story here, but there are some nice bats who could be available in a deal next winter.

Getting Their Own House in Order

Understanding that there is still nearly two months to go in this offseason, next winter will be an important time for a couple of things that shouldn’t or likely won’t happen now and a couple of things that still could. Of the two things that probably won’t be happening now, the Royals will need to make a big decision on Singer as he’ll have two seasons left before reaching free agency.

This is a particularly interesting discussion. If he’s the 2022 version of himself in 2024, what do the Royals do? At that point, he’ll be entering his age-28 season and will have one solid season, one below average season, one bad season and two very good seasons. Let’s say the back injury caused the velocity dip (I don’t buy that, but for the sake of an argument we can say that) and his velocity gets back up to 93ish and he posts a 3.50 ERA with roughly a 25 percent strikeout rate and 7.5 percent walk rate. That’s not so easy to find on the open market.

If he does that, and he was close in 2022, do the Royals sign him to an extension next winter, trade him at pretty close to peak value with the magical two years of control left or just ride it out? I don’t know the answer to that question. My gut reaction would be to trade him, especially if they’re willing to spend to replace his innings. But it’s tough to determine what the right answer is there. The 2024 Royals hope that it’s a question they have to answer, but that’s going to be a big talking point heading into next winter if he has a good year.

They also will likely need to jump on a Pasquantino extension next winter if they don’t get that done before spring training. Let me be clear when I say that I would give him 7 years and $80 million yesterday, shoulder surgery or not. I also understand why they might be willing to wait and maybe even for a full season of him hitting and staying healthy at the big leagues. They’re justified in waiting even if the price tag goes up some from a big season. But if they do wait, I don’t think they can afford for him to put up a well above average walk rate and strikeout rate while hitting with power for another season beyond 2024, so they’ll need to get him extended after next season.

Others include figuring out how to handle Maikel Garcia and Michael Massey. Both could be good enough for an extension or to be traded. Or either could become utility fodder or guys you option until they’re out of options. If they hang on to Melendez, he’s another one. I still think he’s best served in what he brings back in a trade, but as I wrote, if he has a full season like the 2023 second half, do you keep him around for the long haul? I don’t know.

And then there’s the farm system that needs to continue to be rebuilt. In order to win over the long-term, they can’t keep relying on winters like this. Yes, guys like Wacha and Lugo are always available and if they’re willing to hand out mid-market contracts, I suppose they can do that, but it would be very helpful to get some guys who can actually help fill those roles for much less expensive so they can actually go out and spend big money to fill a handful of holes on the roster. Some of that will come next offseason in trading veterans who can help fill out that farm, and a lot of that will likely come at the deadline if they’re not in the race.

So while it seems silly to be thinking about the 2024/2025 offseason while the current one is still happening, it’s prudent to think ahead. I can promise you that JJ Picollo and his team are not only thinking about next winter but the next few after that one as well. Things will obviously change between now and early November when the next one gets underway, but it looks like next winter will be a very good chance to take the step from stopgap acquisitions to actually building a team that can start to think about a long-term run of success.