Not Many Changes in a Different Mike Minor
After a stretch of bad starts, Mike Minor made some alterations to his repertoire.
When the Royals signed Mike Minor to a two-year deal this winter, it was met with some skepticism after a rough 2020 for the lefty. Those in favor of the deal spoke of his 2019 season and how the 2020 season was a tough one to really gauge. Those against the deal pointed to that bad season and the decrease in velocity that led to it. Both sides, though, were in agreement that good or bad, he’d be able to provide innings for the Royals this year and next (unless some team wants to take on his contract). And that’s something he’s generally done for the Royals, averaging 5.2 innings per start but getting through six or more about half the time.
So that sets the stage for his start yesterday. Because in the first 19 starts, there’s been quite bit of up and down. He’s given up five or more runs six times. He’d given up two or fewer seven times. The bad had probably been worse than the good was good, but he’d been inconsistent. One thing he’d generally done throughout the year, though, was throw changeups. And he just…didn’t yesterday. I thought maybe it was because the Brewers were especially good against changeups, but they had a .239 average and .386 slugging percentage against left-handed changeups. I guess that’s a touch better than their team numbers of .223 and .383 coming into the game, but it’s still not exceptional.
Minor threw five changeups in 78 pitches. It’s the fewest he’s thrown this year and just the third time he’s thrown fewer than 10. He’s actually only thrown fewer changeups than yesterday just three times since going back to starting in 2018. It was also the highest percentage of fastballs he’s thrown in a game this season. Was that part of the game plan? I honestly don’t know, but I do know that it worked, giving him his best start since June 20 in Boston and his fewest earned runs since June 10 in Oakland.
Maybe some of that stemmed from his fastball looking good early for him. He was filling up the top of the zone in the first inning with it.
He got one whiff on it (really a foul tip) and one called strike, but if you’ve read me for any length of time, you know how much I love a fastball in the upper third of the zone, so I definitely approved of the way Minor was approaching the game. In the second, he stayed up in the zone and got three more whiffs and at one point had gotten seven swings on the fastball and had four swings and misses, which is some vintage Minor fastball working.
The issue with the plan, while it worked, is that he didn’t get another whiff on his fastball after the third inning and he threw 15 more, getting six swings on them. So that might be something to watch moving forward if he tries to go fastball heavy again and go away from his changeup.
I want to highlight one plate appearance where the lack of a changeup stood out to me. It was actually the final batter Minor faced, Luis Urias. I just want to show you the first two pitches of the at bat. First, it was a slider on the inner third that Urias was way ahead of and fouled off.
Then he threw a fastball in roughly the same spot that sped the bat up and he was way ahead of, fouling it off.
I really thought a changeup on the next pitch would be the perfect one to put him away. After two pitches were on the inner third and his bat was sped up by the previous pitch, pulling the string seemed like a pretty perfect time to put one down and on the outer third. But he went to the curve and then a fastball. I just find it interesting. There’s nothing to be gleaned from it necessarily, but these are the things I think about during games.
Now as we look ahead with Minor, I’m curious to see what his changeup usage looks like in his next start, which will either be against the Tigers or the White Sox. Considering it’s the second straight start without reaching double digit changeups for him, it’s hard to think it isn’t something that’s a conscious decision, but we’ll see soon.
Of course that’s not the whole story of an actual win for the Royals. Yes, that’s right. After losing two of three over the weekend to one of the worst teams in baseball, the Royals cruised into Milwaukee to face one of the hottest teams in baseball on a day that the city was buzzing with the potential of a championship from the Bucks in a few hours (that they got to see) and had a very business-like win.
I wouldn’t say it was an offensive explosion, but they hadn’t homered since before the break and they hadn’t scored since Saturday night, so to get a run in the first was a really big deal for them. And then after an ugly second inning, Jorge Soler came up and did this:
That looked like a 2019 blast from Soler. Just pure power up the middle. Boy if he could put it together for a few games and make some team just sort of hope that he can hit 15 homers the last two months, maybe the Royals could get back a flyer arm or two for him. I’m not exactly holding my breath on it, but it could happen.
Then in the top of the seventh, the Royals got a bizarre single from Michael A. Taylor, who was pretty heads up to tag and go to second on a fly ball from Nicky Lopez. With the pitcher spot coming up next, Mike Matheny had a decision. Minor had been good but not great, though he had only thrown 78 pitches in six innings and the Brewers had the bottom of the order due up in the seventh. Of course, it wasn’t really a decision since the game was tied and he went with Ryan O’Hearn to pinch hit.
It worked out.
They ended up getting an insurance run in the top of the eighth after a Salvador Perez double was followed by back-to-back one-out walks to Hunter Dozier and Soler and then a sacrifice fly from Taylor. They weren’t able to tack on more, but they didn’t need it. Scott Barlow and Greg Holland had a relatively uneventful eighth and ninth and the Royals prevailed in a rare win on the road. It wasn’t flashy, but it worked.
Crown Jewels
Big Debuts
I joked on Twitter about The Star sending Lynn Worthy to Omaha to cover the first game for Bobby Witt, Jr. and Nick Pratto instead of going to Milwaukee to cover the Royals. You just know that things are bad at the big league level when the beat writers ignore the big league team. But still, with Pratto and Witt making it to Omaha after being at the Futures Game, this is definitely something worth covering, especially with the team struggling the way they are. It was nice to see them have some success, especially early. Witt’s first at bat was a good one, taking until the ninth pitch for him to line a single to center.
Then Pratto worked a walk on six pitches. Witt ended up 2 for 6 and missed a chance for a fairy tale game-winning homer. Pratto went 1 for 3 with two walks. It was a good start.
There’s been a lot of talk about when those two might see the big leagues. I think it could be this year. I don’t think it’s definitely this year. With Pratto, he’ll need to be added to the 40-man roster after the season, so if there’s an opening and he’s performing, I could definitely see him getting a call at some point. The issue is that it’s already July 21 and he’s played one AAA game and would likely need at least three or four weeks of tearing the cover off the ball to be up by late August. With Witt, the opportunity is likely there unless they’re committed to giving Dozier third base reps every single day, but I could see a scenario where he doesn’t debut at all this season. Of course, if either or both force their hand, I think we’ll see them later in the year. Just keep in mind that September rosters don’t go all the way to 40 anymore. They only expand to 28 now.
Duffy and Singer to the IL
In the bad news from yesterday, the Royals put Danny Duffy and Brady Singer on the IL. Singer’s is the one that is less concerning. He’s been dealing with some shoulder fatigue for awhile and you just know the Royals have been looking for an excuse to get him some time off with his innings starting to mount compared to last season. And after a bad start (that annoyed me so much), it seems like the perfect time. He could definitely miss just the one start and potentially even be available to make the start the next time the Royals need a guy. My hope is that he takes a couple weeks and they give him a couple rehab starts in Omaha.
With Duffy, it’s concerning. For one, it’s the same forearm that cost him a few weeks earlier this season. Obviously, a forearm injury is never something you want to see with a pitcher, but a second one in two months for a guy who has already had Tommy John and is about at that time where the ligaments sometimes go bad is really bad. For the Royals, it’s brutal timing as Duffy was likely going to be highly sought after on the trade market. Like Singer, he’s eligible to come back before the deadline and he could also make that next start the Royals need, but Matheny didn’t sound too confident about that. It’s a tough blow for everyone. If you’re looking at who might replace these two, it sounds like the rotation will be Minor, Brad Keller, Kris Bubic and Carlos Hernandez, so they’ll need one more. Daniel Lynch looked good in Omaha yesterday, but Jackson Kowar is scheduled to go Thursday for Omaha, so Tuesday would be right in line with his next start as well. We’ll see.
Additional big debut..... Vinnie Pasquantino was 5-7 with a HR at NWA.