Obvious Mistake is Obvious
The result may have ended up the same, but Mike Minor never should have thrown a pitch in the seventh.
Through six innings, it was so clean. Mike Minor was throwing well and keeping a good Reds lineup off balance. The offense had just done their part, sort of, to give the Royals their first lead of the day with an RBI double from Jorge Soler of all people. After Brad Keller’s strong showing in Sunday’s loss, it sure looked like two straight good ones for a rotation that really needed about 14 straight good ones.
And in the sixth, the Royals bullpen had been stretching. Scott Barlow, Josh Staumont, Greg Holland and Kyle Zimmer were all prepping for their appearances in a tight game. With the Reds 3-4-5 hitters due up, I looked out to the bullpen. The mounds were empty. Uh oh. I suppose I called this, but I don’t think it was a surprise.
It. Took. One. Pitch.
Yes, it was a deep drive to left for Nick Castellanos, but it didn’t give the Reds a 4-0 lead. It tied the game and nobody was surprised. Minor then walked the next two hitters, though the walk to Joey Votto was some on a couple borderline calls. He turned the ball over to Kyle Zimmer who hung a slider on his third pitch to Eugenio Suarez to give the Reds a 5-2 lead they wouldn’t give back.
The initial reaction is to say that Matheny’s decision to leave Minor in for the seventh lost the Royals the game. The reality is that it definitely contributed, but it wasn’t the only factor. If the offense could have pushed across more than two runs, the seventh wouldn’t have been as high leverage. If the bullpen wasn’t so worn down from half a season of overwork, it wouldn’t have been so enticing to keep a starter in the game. But even at 82 pitches, the mistake made was not even second guessing. I’m going to get to Minor’s role in this in a minute, but first I want to talk about Matheny’s.
In the post-game press conference, he was asked about the decision. If he had said that the bullpen was worn out and he understands the risks, but wanted to give it a go, I’d have still disagreed but I’d have gotten it. Instead he cited the 1-2-3 inning in the sixth that came against the number nine hitter, a leadoff hitter who was originally the number nine hitter before the leadoff hitter had to be scratched and an excellent hitter who came into the game with a .189/.294/.243 line against lefties. As good as that sixth inning was, it meant nothing to facing Castellanos, Tyler Stephenson and Votto for a third time.
Minor hadn’t been horrible a third time through. The .765 OPS allowed was actually better than his second time through. On pitch 76-100, he had actually been better than pitch 26-50 and 51-75. But he also wasn’t always facing the heart of a legitimately good lineup each of those times. It was just a mistake, plain and simple. It’s one that likely came from Matheny being in a tough position due to the offense making the game far too close and the bullpen being worn down, but you can’t look at the decision he made and his reasoning and come away feeling very good about it.
Now, onto Minor. He spoke after the game and basically said that on the pitch to Castellanos, he said he was trying to sneak strike one past him. I’m very thankful for our friends at Royals Farm for looking this up because I was going to anyway.
I don’t have much to add this other than we can add that to the list regarding preparation for this staff.
It is just so disappointing to not have been able to use this space to talk about just how good Minor was in the first six innings because it’s totally lost due to the seventh. On the plus side, Minor is continuing to give the Royals innings with more than 100 now in his 18 starts this season. He leads the Royals by 15 over Keller in the same number of starts. If nothing else, he’s providing that service after a year that we’ve talked about so much when the young arms simply didn’t work that much.
And to get back to the game in general, things may have unfolded the same way had Zimmer come in to the game with a clean inning in the seventh. This might have been the worst he’s looked this season. He gave up four runs in an inning against the Rays in April, but he just didn’t have anything going for him in this game. This tells the story of him.
Just one swing and miss isn’t going to cut it. Throwing just 12 strikes in 23 pitches isn’t going to cut it. And look, sometimes guys aren’t going to have it. We were spoiled in 2014 and 2015 when we saw Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland (less so in 2015) basically always have it, but most relievers are going to find themselves in some trouble from time to time. It was just the sixth outing in 31 that Zimmer had allowed any runs. His struggles aren’t a long-term concern necessarily, but with the way he threw, there was no guarantee the outcome would have been different. Of course, I’d still like to have seen it to find out.
And the other culprit, as I mentioned above, was the offense unable to do much of anything. We’ve been over what the lineup could have been this season and what it has been due to a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness. Now we’re staring down the barrel of Ryan O’Hearn hitting cleanup and Nicky Lopez being one of the best hitters, which is not a position to be in.
Vladimir Gutierrez looked very good, which is often the case in a performance like the one he put up. His slider was nasty, getting 11 swings and misses on 20 swings. I don’t know what percentage of that was him and what percentage was the Royals offense often looking helpless, but he had one of the best starts of his young career, and because of that, every pitch mattered even more for the Royals in that seventh inning.
Crown Jewels
Deadline Dealings
One of the things I’m weirdly fascinated by is selling teams using the trade deadline to actually buy for the future. I’m curious if the Royals would be well served to do something like this. I remember back in 2013, I wanted the Royals to trade Ervin Santana and get some prospects back while trading for a pitcher (I honestly can’t remember who) who would be around for a couple years after that. One pitcher the Royals should be interested in is German Marquez from the Rockies. I don’t know if they're even looking to move him, but they should be. And if they are, the Royals should absolutely be in on him.
It’s not going to be cheap. Marquez is 26 and has a 4.12 ERA while pitching half his games in Coors Field since 2017. He gets strikeouts, he has control and in Kauffman Stadium, he could be an absolute monster. I would imagine a deal would begin with something like Daniel Lynch and M.J. Melendez and probably require more, but Marquez is under team control through 2024. If the Royals believe they are on the verge of contention (and I think they’re probably closer than many believe but farther than the organization believes), he would be a very interesting piece and the Royals have a unique amount of pitching they could afford to part with that the Rockies might find interesting. It doesn’t have to be Marquez and it doesn’t have to be this deal, but I’m definitely intrigued by the idea.
The Bright Side
There was quite a bit to like about the game last night actually, in spite of the final third of it. I thought that Carlos Santana was encouraging with his two walks and a big double in the third. I thought that Jorge Soler was encouraging with a 112.6 MPH double in the sixth to drive in a run. And Nicky Lopez had two more hits, which is always good to see. Oh, and Whit Merrifield made just an outstanding play at second base. So I’m going to leave you today with three highlights from a frustrating loss.
Santana’s Double:
Soler’s Double:
Merrifield’s Great Play:
David, I really like your writing... but... to say the Royals are closer to winning than we think...hmmm. The cupboard seems pretty thin from where I sit.
The Royals would need a totally unproven rotation to step in literally across the board even if Keller can figure it out. As far as run production beyond next year it's Mondesi, Merrifield, Perez, and B Whit assuming he pans out. (no Dozier no how, Lopez is improving but to plan on him having an impact is a leap)
There are many gaps out there for DMGM to plug and the track record is becoming a very faint trail of crumbs.
Tuff! Keller should be sent down, bull pen or Omaha- imo. I know our starting pitching sucks, but the pen sucks too. Pitching is always blamed, but even Mathews said its the Bull Pen stupid....and he was quoting managers from way back.