Roster Projection 1: The Position Players

It's way too early, but I want to see how this progresses over the next 11ish weeks.

I usually start projecting the roster at the start of spring training or right before it. And I’ll continue to do that this season, but I wanted to start this a little bit early to try something different. So today I’m going to bring you the position players who I think are on track to start the season on the big league roster and I’m going to give you what they can do to change the positional grouping and then what I think they should do. There’s still time to upgrade the roster, add depth, etc., so I think this is a bit of an interesting way to look at it.

I should note that my projections here are some combination of things I’ve heard from talking with people and just my personal opinion on how I think the roster will shake out. There might be some disagreements and that’s okay! As I’ve done in the past, throughout my roster projections, I’m going to use different stats and projections. Since this is the first, I’m just going to go with the actual stats from 2022. All WAR numbers will be from Fangraphs.

Catchers

Salvador Perez - .254/.292/.464, 23 HR, 109 wRC+, 0.5 WAR

Why did I put the “s” on catchers? I don’t know. At this point, I think Perez will be the only full-time catcher on the roster. Based on this, you know who I think will catch when Perez gets days off to DH, but I’m going to save it because that’s how you create drama…or something. You know what you’re getting with Salvy these days. He’s going to swing hard and a lot and when he connects, it’s going to go a long way a lot of the time. With a little more health, you might expect to see a season closer to 2021, but a 33-year-old catcher and health aren’t exactly the peanut butter and jelly of the baseball world. Still, it’s his world at catcher and we’re all just living it.

What They Could Do: They could sign a dedicated backup catcher and there are a few still available on the free agent market, though the choices are fewer and farther between every day. A guy like Sandy Leon who is pure defense could be an option or maybe they look to Roberto Perez. You might remember him being annoyingly good at throwing out Royals trying to steal while he was with Cleveland. He hasn’t caught more than 364 innings since 2019, a year he hit 24 homers. I’d give that a shot I guess, but you’re just grasping at that point. They could try to trade for a backup catcher too, but I don’t necessarily see much out there.

What They Should Do: I don’t have much of an issue with their current course. They also have Freddy Fermin on the 40-man roster at this moment, so he could be their backup. If we’re being honest, I’d go back in time and make that deal for James McCann and Carlos Carrasco, but this isn’t about time machines right now. I think their plan is fine knowing that they have a former top prospect behind the plate on the roster and a guy in Fermin who looks like he could be a capable backup.

Infielders

Hunter Dozier - .238/.292/.387, 90wRC+, -1.0 WAR

Nicky Lopez - .227/.281/.273, 57 wRC+, 1.2 WAR

Michael Massey - .243/.307/.376, 93 wRC+, 0.6 WAR

Adalberto Mondesi - .140/.240/.140, -3 wRC+, 0.0 WAR

Vinne Pasquantino - .295/.383/.450, 137 wRC+, 1.5 WAR

Bobby Witt Jr. - .254/.294/.428, 99 wRC+, 2.3 WAR

This group has some volatility. Every time I list infielders alphabetically, I get annoyed that Dozier is first because it’s even more glaring when it’s the first thing you see, but I think he’s probably on the bench to start the season and maybe that’s a good spot for him with a fair amount of young lefties out there. I think you’ll see Pasquantino at first, Massey at second, Mondesi at third and Witt at shortstop to start the season, but Lopez will obviously factor in as well. I could see a lot of changes between now and Opening Day here.

What They Could Do: I wouldn’t worry about first, second or shortstop at this point. The play, if, they were going to make it, was to go after someone like Dansby Swanson and move Witt to third, but they weren’t going to do that. So let Witt play shortstop knowing you’ve got capable defenders in Lopez and Mondesi with him. That means you look to third base if you’re wanting to upgrade. Me? I’d have signed Evan Longoria for the light deal he took with Arizona, but maybe he wanted to be in Arizona and that was that. At this point, I’d go after depth. I’ve mentioned Brian Anderson before and I think I’d give that a shot. Matt Duffy was okay with the Cubs in 2021 I guess, if you want to try that.

I also mentioned the trade route in an article a couple of weeks ago. They have a bit of a logjam and would love to get something for Mondesi, even if he’s just part of a deal. Maybe the Angels really would move Gio Urshela for him. Otherwise, the options are pretty slim. I’m not sure if the Orioles would trade Ramon Urias with Jordan Westburg close, but he’d be an interesting stopgap as well and maybe they’d be interested in some of the Royals young pitching that they’ve given up on plus something else? I don’t know, I’m kind of terrible at trades like this, but they could make a call there.

What They Should Do: I would look upgrade. My personal opinion is sign Anderson and see if he can give you anything. If you get the 2018 to 2020 guy, you get a .266/.350/.436 hitter with solid defense. If he’s cooked like he’s shown over the last couple of seasons (and cooked might be a bit much), you don’t have to invest much. Think the Maikel Franco deal. But I’d absolutely trade for Urshela if that was possible and also Urias if the Orioles would make that move. I just think they need someone better/more reliable than Mondesi there. Maybe one of the guys I have listed in the outfield below can fill that role, but I just don’t know.

If they don’t go after anyone, I would want Nate Eaton playing third, at least early over Mondesi. I know he didn’t fare well defensively there and he was outstanding in the outfield, but I think there’s a chance to help mitigate some of Witt’s issues with a guy who is so quick at third next to him. And if that doesn’t work, there are multiple prospect options as as well. Maikel Garcia could be the guy to shift Witt to third or maybe Nick Loftin plays third or Cayden Wallace starts to move fast or maybe Samad Taylor is the guy too. I don’t know who, but if they don’t try for a veteran, I’d start with Eaton and go from there.

Outfielders

Nate Eaton - .264/.331/.387, 101 wRC+, 0.9 WAR

Kyle Isbel - .211/.264/.340, 67 wRC+, 0.7 WAR

MJ Melendez - .217/.313/.393, 99 wRC+, -0.2 WAR

Edward Olivares - .286/.333/.410, 110 wRC+, 0.4 WAR

Michael A. Taylor - .254/.313/.357, 90 wRC+, 1.5 WAR

Drew Waters - .240/.324/.479, 125 wRC+, 0.4 WAR

This is the group that I just don’t know about. As of today, I’m pretty confident all six of these would be on the field for introductions on Opening Day. I don’t think they all will be there when it gets there, but that’s why we’re watching this progression. My guess is Olivares spends some time at designated hitter as he has shown he can hit, but also has shown he probably shouldn’t be trusted in the field. Melendez could also DH some and will also be behind the plate some, which makes for almost a need of six outfielders.

Interestingly enough, it’s a pretty well-balanced group. There are three righties, two lefties and a switch hitter. Eaton, Isbel, Taylor and Waters are all excellent defenders while Melendez is a work in progress and Olivares might be exiting the work-in-progress stage and entering the liability stage of his career (not yet, just getting there). So you can mix and match with handedness and defensive ability and maintain a pretty good trio out there every day. So that’s interesting. Also, I think all four of the good defenders can not only handle center but can handle it well. So that’s a big plus. And also a reason Taylor shouldn’t be on this roster come spring training. Some team will need a fourth outfielder or even an excellent defender to hit at the bottom of their order.

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Olivares moved, and I don’t think that’s instead of Taylor. Maybe there’s some deal to be made with the Marlins for one of their young arms who they’re so diligently trying to trade away for a bat. The only issue is that I wonder how much other teams believe in Olvares as a hitter. He hit .258/.292/.371 after he came back from his second quad strain. It’s something to monitor during spring. If he goes as nuts then as he did last year, I could see a move happening and the Royals turning the outfield over to the young guys entirely, especially knowing Tyler Gentry is close and Gavin Cross could move very fast too.

What They Could Do: I mentioned the trade options they have. They could also add to the mix and confuse things more and get a right-handed bat to handle a corner spot. Adam Duvall is one who I think makes a ton of sense for them. He’s a very good defender and has legitimately big power. I’ve always thought he was a stretch in center and he’ll strike out a lot, but he hit 38 homers in 2021. The Royals could use that righty thump in the lineup. Anderson could also fit here as he’s played some right field. I suppose they could give Robbie Grossman a shot to see if he can bounce back, but he’s not good defensively and had a .311 SLG last year. I loved the idea of AJ Pollock before he signed with the Mariners, but since he’s gone, the options are kind of thin.

What They Should Do: I’m not opposed to a Duvall signing as long as it comes with some additional moves. They’d have to trade Taylor and maybe Olivares too with that deal. And it’d be fine because they’d still have center fielders. I kind of think, though, that they should run out an outfield with some combination of Melendez, Waters, Isbel, Olivares and Eaton every day if they’re not going to give Eaton third base. All showed different levels of stuff last season and I think it’s important to figure out who can stick where. Maybe Melendez gets a lot better in the outfield. Remember that he was entirely new to the position in 2022 and I thought he improved throughout the season.

With Gentry very close and Cross potentially close quickly, I think they need to use his season to also sort out some of the outfield pieces. I love Gentry, but if he goes to AAA to start the year, puts up the same .321/.417/.555 line he did in AA in 73 games, maybe you move him for a legitimate piece in your starting rotation if you’re comfortable with the guys you already have out there. Or maybe Eaton has built some value but you want to see that line in the big leagues from Gentry. I guess I’m saying they should force themselves into some potentially good problems rather than try to win an extra two games with a free agent that won’t get them to contention.

Tomorrow I’ll tackle the pitchers! Not literally, though, because I’d probably get arrested.