Royals Add a Fresh (Prince) Arm

It's a minor move in the grand scheme of things, but a nice one for the Royals to add Will Smith to their bullpen.

We all know how bad the bullpen was for the Royals in 2023. But if you need a reminder, let’s get it out of the way at the top. They were 29th in ERA, 26th in FIP, 23rd in strikeout rate, 28th in walk rate, 28th in fWAR and 21st in chase rate. I could probably go on, but you get the idea. So when JJ Picollo announced to the world that he was going to be targeting bullpen help (and rotation help too, which I’ll get to), it was met with a collective “duh.” But that doesn’t mean that it isn’t noteworthy when they make a move that can help that bullpen, which they did with the signing of Will Smith to return to Kansas City.

I’m sure all of you will remember this, but if you don’t, the Royals acquired Smith from the Angels in the deal that sent Alberto Callaspo to Anaheim. He debuted as a starter and wasn’t very good, but like so many at that time, he moved to the Royals bullpen and was outstanding, putting up a 2.45 ERA in 29.1 innings as a reliever with 38 strikeouts and six walks. He was then traded to the Brewers for Nori Aoki and has had a really successful career as a reliever for the Brewers, Giants, Braves, Astros and Rangers. He’s saved 30+ games twice and got to 22 saves last season for the World Series champs in Texas. Of course, he’s been on the last three World Series winners, so that’s fun too.

What Smith did in 2015 or whatever doesn’t have a lot of bearing on what Smith can do in 2024. Last year for Texas, he had a 4.40 ERA in 60 appearances, which was roughly average, but his peripherals told something of a different story, and that’s encouraging. He struck out 55, walked 17 and had a 3.36 FIP. Was he unlucky? Maybe some. His xERA basically matched his FIP. All the markers, though, make it a little bit confusing to figure out just how he got to a 4.40 ERA. The BABIP against him was .262. He didn’t allow an inordinate number of home runs. Some of it was inherited runners scoring. In games he allowed runs, the reliever following him allowed five of his eight inherited runners to score. You can’t expect perfection, but that didn’t help.

Overall, the ERA seems a little bit on the flukey side, but also there are some reasons that he signed for $5 million over one year when he once signed for $40 million over three years. For one, the strikeouts were down a touch from 2022 and way down from 2013 through 2021 when his lowest strikeout rate was 28.7 percent. His walks were down too, which is noteworthy, but relievers need to get strikeouts and while Smith still does, he trends much more to average than very good to excellent like he used to. That’s okay, again, but it’s worth mentioning.

He leads with his slider, which is an excellent pitch. In 2023, he threw it 50.1 percent of the time and hitters had no idea what to do with it. They hit .120 with a .213 SLG and a .151 wOBA. I’ve been big on expected numbers this winter and they painted basically the same pitcher. Opponents whiffed on 39.6 percent of swings on it. Why is it so good with a pretty average spin rate? For one, he locates it extremely well.

It’s hard to do damage there. He threw 432 of them and just 174 were in the zone. And yet, he got swings on 240, including 107 of them on pitches outside the zone. That means he got swings on 133 of the 174 sliders in the zone. Opponents hit .217 with a .377 SLG and a 23.3 percent whiff rate on those. To get that kind of swinging strike rate on a breaking ball in the zone is really impressive. And for hitters to have those kind of results is even more impressive. The league hit .273 with a .488 SLG on sliders in the zone. So that’s a good thing.

Swings like this one are swings we can expect to see:

But when he goes out of the zone, it can get even uglier:

It isn’t quite as pretty on the fastball. He didn’t get crushed or anything, but he did allow a .303 average and .494 SLG. And, again, the expected numbers generally were right there. He didn’t get many swings and misses with it and it got hit pretty hard when it got hit. I wonder a little if Brian Sweeney and the staff might make some tweaks to his pitch usage. When he’s ahead in the count, he throws roughly two-thirds sliders.

When behind, the fastball comes out to play. It’s not a terribly impressive fastball but it also doesn’t look like the type that should get crushed, so I think it might help to go to the slider in rough situations. Maybe be a little more willing to walk a batter in the pursuit of a chase. I know that goes against the raid the zone thing they talk about, but it’s better to give up one base that can only advance any other runs one base than potentially get crushed. So I’ll be curious to see how he uses that along with his curve that gets whiffs, but he only throws about eight percent of the time.

I would guess at this point in the winter that Smith is the closer if this team has one. He’s done it before, which isn’t completely necessary for results but the ninth is a little different. He raises the floor of the bullpen quite a bit, and I think you can start to see a path toward them actually being competent there. Look at the options now, in alphabetical order:

Nick Anderson
Jonathan Bowlan
Jake Brentz
Taylor Clarke
Steven Cruz
Carlos Hernandez
Will Klein
Daniel Lynch IV
Alec Marsh
James McArthur
John McMillon
Matt Sauer
Smith
Collin Snider
Josh Taylor
Anthony Veneziano
Angel Zerpa

Many will be considered for starting roles, but I’d imagine none will earn one if the rest of the offseason goes well. There are very few sure things there, but adding Anderson and Smith help quite a bit and I will also throw something else out there. I believe that the issues for Hernandez came when he was thrust into a role of greater importance. I believe McArthur’s emergence and McMillon getting to the big leagues along with Anderson and Smith help to push him down the pecking order. I’m not saying he’s going to be back to what he was before the deadline, but I’m curious to see if he is.

I also would imagine that he’s on this team with the idea that he is easily flipped at the deadline. He’s not as high octane as Aroldis Chapman, but if he’s pitching well and the Royals are out of it, a lefty who can handle high leverage is pretty valuable on the market. On one hand, the Royals should absolutely be making signings knowing that they can get talent back in return at the deadline for them. On the other hand, I do think that’s easier said than done.

A guy like Smith, for example, could have potentially waited out the market and found a deal with a contender later in the winter. Again, he’s been successful. No, he isn’t great like he was for a few years, but he helps a bullpen get better. It’s tough to sign these guys in December knowing that they could simply wait for a contender. On the flip side, there is some knowledge that they might be able to pitch in a role of greater importance for a team like the Royals and that helps too, so maybe it evens out in the end. Just a thought there.

I’d imagine that the Royals aren’t done. There is a lot of smoke around Ryne Stanek, who makes a ton of sense for this team. He’s a local kid. He’s coming off a bit of a down year. He has ties to the coaching staff. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he’s the next domino to fall for the bullpen and, if he is, I’m going to have to do of work to talk myself out of doing what I did last year and believing the bullpen has a chance to be a strength for this team. I do believe the options help because you feel like you have to be able to find 12-15 guys out of a group of 25, but I thought that last year too and, well, you know.

On the starting pitching front, the rumors continue to fly and the Royals are involved in many of them. Jon Heyman tweeted that they are in on Lucas Giolito, which we’ve known for awhile, but he’s the first I think I’ve seen publicly say they’re involved in the Marcus Stroman market as well. I’ve written about him with the Royals a few times and I can’t remember if I wrote it here or tweeted it, but I know the Royals would love to add him to the staff. He’s not a strikeout guy, but he’s a steady pitcher who has a different repertoire than basically any pitcher on the staff. He gets all those grounders and that infield defense can make him look very good.

I think we know they’re going to get two starting pitchers somehow. They’ve said it too much to not make good on that. I appreciate the pursuit of higher-end arms so they’re not saddled with another Jordan Lyles. It’s going to cost more, without a doubt, but if they were to somehow add Stroman and, say, Michael Wacha, to Cole Ragans at the top of the rotation, suddenly you start to see a way they can steal some wins. Would it be good enough to win a division? I guess never say never in the AL Central, but even if not, it’s enough to be a lot more watchable and stay in a lot more games. The Smith move has to just be the start of the additions, and I think it is.