Bats Behind Brady Bash Boston

The Royals did something that has never been done in Fenway Park history, which is a pretty old stadium.

The Royals followed up their seven-game winning streak by immediately losing three in a row, which happens. They generally played well enough to win in Philadelphia over the weekend and just didn’t. On Monday night, I didn’t really have time to write about the absolutely horrific call that extended the bottom of the ninth inning, but I was encouraged by that game as well. But still, for a team to lose three in a row, including the last one in heartbreaking fashion, right after winning seven, you might see them come out a little flat. But, as I’ve said for some time now, this Royals team doesn’t quit.

They missed plenty of opportunities early. They had two on in the first and didn’t score. They had two on and one out in the second and scored one. They had two on in the third and didn’t score. And that’s kind of what makes their offensive outburst so interesting. Things really got started for them in the fourth inning after Matt Beaty’s second double of the game to lead off the inning. Drew Waters, who has been swinging the bat pretty well, got a pitch to hammer.

That made the score 3-0 and when the Red Sox got two back in the bottom of the fifth to make it a game, the Royals did to the Red Sox what teams have done to the Royals all season long. Maikel Garcia led the sixth off with a walk and then stole second and went to third on a wild pitch. It looked like they might only get one when Michael Massey hit a soft grounder that scored Garcia, even with the infield in. But Salvador Perez extended the inning with a rocket off the green monster. It would have been a home run in a few parks, but the Green Monster held it and held him to a single.

The Monster could not, however, hold MJ Melendez.

The Royals gave up two in the fifth to make it a game and then scored three in the sixth to open things back up. That’s the sort of thing good teams do consistently. The Royals are certainly not a good team, but that’s also the sort of thing they seemed to never do this year, so I thought it was a good sign. And it was also a good sign that they continued to pile on. Waters led off the seventh with his third hit. Then he stole second and scored on Kyle Isbel’s double. And with two outs, Massey did a little more than hit a little dribbler.

That made it 9-2 and it was an insurmountable lead even with the way the Royals bullpen has been throwing. In all, the Royals hit three home runs, had seven extra base hits and stole six bases. In the history of baseball, that’s been done six times. The wild thing, which you saw if you were watching the game, is that two of the six were achieved by the Royals.

But what the broadcast didn’t tell you is that the first time the Royals did it, it required 13 innings and two of the steals came in extra innings. The 1977 Reds also required 13 innings and some of those stats accumulated in extras. So last night was the fourth time a team has ever done that in a nine-inning game.

As Billy Mays might say, but wait, there’s more! Forget the extra base hits. The Royals hitting three homers while stealing six bases was the first time a team had done that at Fenway Park in the HISTORY OF BASEBALL. Sometimes those stats are ridiculous, and this one is absolutely cherry-picked. But there have been nearly 9,000 games played there. That means nearly 18,000 opportunities for a team to hit three home runs and steal six bases. And nobody ever had. That’s just crazy.

If you’re looking for something to hang your hat on, the Royals bats and the core they were hoping would take a step forward kind of has since the break. It’s only 24 games, so there’s the small sample alert, but I was encouraged to hear about how many players were doing what they could during the break to put that ugly first half behind them. And now, there are a few young players who are making up a pretty solid group if they can keep this up:

• Bobby Witt: .312/.347/.602, 155 wRC+ - Typically I’d see a .602 SLG and think that it screams fluke. While it’s almost certainly high, guys with his talent don’t have limits. Is this for real? Maybe not, but even if he’s .285/.320/.525 with the defense he’s played, that’s a centerpiece.

• Freddy Fermin: .358/.375/.660, 177 wRC+ - Okay, there’s fluke here, but I also think there’s something real as well. He has legitimate power and makes good and consistent enough contact that he could keep this up. And if Salvy is going to get moved (and I think there’s a pretty decent chance he does), the Royals seem to be in pretty good hands behind the plate even if he dips to something like .270/.315/.450 because, like Witt, the defense is outstanding.

• MJ Melendez: .271/.333/.482, 118 wRC+ - Melendez has gotten a lot of criticism, and rightfully so. But he’s put in the work and I’m going to continue to call that out. He’s hitting the ball to all fields including a couple of opposite field home runs lately. We’ve rightfully wondered where the power has been, but his second-half paces include 28 homers and 65 extra base hits. He doesn’t have to be an especially good defender if he’s going to do that.

• Michael Massey: .230/.288/.527, 116 wRC+ - This is not the hitter I thought Massey would be, but I think there’s some positive regression coming on that average. He’s only struck out 10 percent of the time since the break and has a .183 BABIP. His hard-hit rate is fine. His barrel rate is fine. He’s making contact. I’d bet on a jump if that continues and with the power he’s shown and, again the defense, he’s making a strong case for himself.

• Drew Waters: .243/.313/.500, 116 wRC+ - He hit that home run and he’s started walking more again. He’s not going to hit for a high average because there is swing and miss in his game, but his strikeout rate is right on the edge of what I think makes this second half sustainable. If you change the dates to fit a narrative, he’s hitting .270/.378/.595 with a 13.3 percent walk rate and 26.7 percent strikeout rate since July 25. Is that sustainable? Probably not, but he’s been pretty darn good and played solid defense with +1 DRS and +3 OAA.

They’ve scored 4.8 runs per game since the break and they’re doing it in all the ways. They’re hitting some home runs (30 in 24 games, that’s a 203 HR pace in a full year). They’re stealing bases (36 in 24 games, that’s a 243 steal pace) and not getting caught (just three caught stealing). They’re hitting situationally with eight sacrifice flies. They look awfully good out there. And that’s with a couple of guys who they figure to be part of the solution not producing.

Garcia has struggled some, in spite of his long hitting streak. Vinnie Pasquantino isn’t even playing. Those are two guys who I think the Royals are counting on long-term as well. When you combine them with the five above, you can start to see a light at the offensive tunnel. If they do keep Salvy and you can give him more time off from behind the plate because of Fermin, that only helps. They need more because all five of the above aren’t likely to keep this up.

They need to see what Tyler Gentry and Nick Loftin can do. Cayden Wallace and Gavin Cross (even with his struggles) are now just one level away from being one level away. I don’t need to see the latter two, but you really can see a path with a smart signing or trade that makes this offense pretty good in 2024, even if Perez is moved. I’m not saying I’m predicting it, but I am saying I can see how they get there.

The pitching is another story, though Brady Singer continuing to pitch well helps to write that a little better, assuming he isn’t traded this winter. He went 6.2 innings and gave up three runs on five hits with four strikeouts and two walks. The line could have been better, but Angel Zerpa channeled his inner Jose Cuas and let one of Singer’s runners score with two outs after he came into the game. I thought Singer didn’t have especially great stuff last night, but he’s back commanding the ball and that’s made all the difference for him.

He now has a 3.71 ERA and 3.52 FIP in 16 starts since and including May 11. He’s only given up six home runs in 94.2 innings in that time (including one last night). He’s been generally good. That’s kicked up since the break with a 2.94 ERA in 33.2 innings over five starts with 31 strikeouts and five walks. That will absolutely play.

I’m not saying I’m blaming the World Baseball Classic for the start of his season, but I’ve seen a lot of people talking about him starting slow the last two years. First of all, he looked pretty good in relief to start last season but then was sent down to stretch out, so I don’t actually know that he started slow. But that said, the 2022 spring training was truncated due to the lockout and his 2023 spring training was butchered due to the WBC. If he’s a Royal, and I think there’s a decent chance he isn’t, I’m interested in seeing him with an actual full spring in 2024.

Last night was interesting because he wasn’t really getting the whiffs on his slider that he had been. He got just four on 17 swings, but they were putting it in play and generally putting it in play weakly. That’s a testament to him actually locating his sinker. When he’s tunneling right, you can see how these two pitches could cause hitters some serious problems given that they can look the same for a long time before diverging to different locations.

I think he did make a couple of mistakes that we haven’t seen from him over his last couple of starts, but those will happen. He did a nice job to get through it with good results and give his team a chance to get the bats going. They did and it was an easy win for him. If Zerpa hadn’t let that inherited runner score, his ERA would have dipped below 5.00, but, alas, it was not meant to be.

One thing I found fascinating came from Jake Eisenberg on the Royals radio broadcast. I think Jake is just fantastic on the call and he was bringing something up about the changeup. Singer threw just six last night, but Eisenberg mentioned the difference between what he’s thrown lately and what he threw last season, and I thought this was a really great nod to the Royals coaching staff.

Without getting too technical because I’d be talking out of my you-know-what, he was saying that Singer’s arm naturally supinates rather than pronates and the changeup he was trying to throw required pronation.

If you’re unfamiliar with the difference, put your arm out with your palm down. Now turn your hand so your thumb turns away from your body. That’s supination. Put that palm back down and turn your thumb into your body. That’s pronation. Singer’s split-change that he’s now throwing can be thrown with his arm supinating rather than pronating. I haven’t dug in that much on his changeup yet to see the difference, but I really thought that was fascinating and a reason why he’s so much more comfortable throwing the pitch now. He still isn’t throwing it a ton, but enough to keep hitters guessing.

That, to me, deserves a big kudos to this coaching staff for finally being able to understand what the player needs rather than trying to jam something down his throat. I’ve been as critical as anyone for Singer being hard-headed and unwilling to throw a changeup, but if something isn’t comfortable, you’re not doing it either. Maybe I’ve been unfair to him about that.

Either way, between him looking so much better for awhile now and Cole Ragans showing signs of being more than just a back-end starter, the Royals have to feel like they’ve got something brewing heading into the 2024 season. For Ragans, it’s only been the three starts, but these last two were about as impressive as a pair of starts I can remember for a young Royals starter in a long time. Again, praising the coaching staff, but to give him that slider and have him master it so quickly is something we simply didn’t see prior to this year.

There are questions with both. Singer obviously could get traded, which is fine if it happens. And Ragans obviously hasn’t done this for very long. But similar to the offense, you start to see the path to a rotation being built. Also like the offense, they need more. Someone else has to step up whether that’s Alec Marsh or Zerpa back to the rotation or someone else, but it appears there’ll be an opportunity with Zack Greinke hitting the IL again, so we’ll see who starts on Friday now for this club. The signs, though, they’re good. They need more, but seeing them play like last night more often will go a long way to help both the team and the fans build confidence.