Royals Keep Signing Free Agents
Today's news adds Hunter Renfroe adn Michael Wacha to the 2024 Royals. They are quite busy.
Since I’ve already written Crown Jewels today, I’ll just dive right in and start this with the 28-man roster we saw for the Royals on the last day of the 2023 season:
Dairon Blanco
Jonathan Bowlan
Taylor Clarke
Tyler Cropley
Steven Cruz
Tucker Davidson
Matt Duffy
Maikel Garcia
Zack Greinke
Carlos Hernandez
Kyle Isbel
Jackson Kowar
Nick Loftin
Jordan Lyles
Alec Marsh
Michael Massey
James McArthur
MJ Melendez
Edward Olivares
Salvador Perez
Logan Porter
Nick Pratto
Cole Ragans
Collin Snider
Anthony Veneziano
Drew Waters
Bobby Witt Jr.
Angel Zerpa
I’m going to be honest that I might be off on a couple of these players because I can’t find the exact roster, but it’s pretty close. Of the 28 above, six are already out of the organization and the Royals will need to make three more moves on their roster. They’ve also now brought in Nick Anderson, Garrett Hampson, Seth Lugo, Matt Sauer, Will Smith and Chris Stratton. And then today, they’ve agreed to deals with Hunter Renfroe and Michael Wacha to add even more to their roster. It’s a bit of a whirlwind.
Let’s get into it.
Michael Wacha signs for two years and $32 million…sort of
The bigger move of the day is another veteran added to the rotation in Michael Wacha. They did it with the same concept they’ve had with so many deals so far. He has a one year deal for $16 million and a player option/opt-out with 2025 worth $16 million if he chooses to stay with the Royals. These are all downside, but also if they’re having good seasons, it doesn’t really matter all that much. Still, a big if, though Wacha has now put together consecutive very good seasons since he started struggling in 2019.
How does he get it done? Over the last few years, he’s been using his changeup more and more and that peaked last season with him throwing it 34.5 percent of the time, more than any other pitch. And it’s really good. He gets whiffs on 36 percent of swings on the changeup and opponents hit .207 last year with a .346 SLG. That’s after he had a 35 percent whiff rate and .170 average allowed with a .314 SLG on it in 2022. It’s one of the very best changeups in all of baseball. It was worth 12 runs, which was sixth-best in baseball. It’s a fantastic pitch.
He throws it for strikes, but it doesn’t matter to opponents. They simply can’t square it up if they hit it at all.
Look at that movement. That’s a pitch that could and probably should be crushed based on location, but Paul Goldschmidt came up totally empty.
But where Wacha took a step even from a good 2022 was with his four-seamer. His velocity was down a bit, but his extension was up from 2022 and the results were excellent. He allowed a .188 average and .323 SLG. Now, the expected numbers weren’t as good, but they were still fine and good enough with his changeup to make him a safe bet to be at least solid in 2024. The one pitch that interests me is his curve.
He threw it 11 percent of the time after throwing it just 7.4 percent of the time in 2022. He got more whiffs on it and got weaker contact on it. That could be a pitch we see tick up a little bit with the Royals, though his expected numbers on it weren’t exactly great. So it’s kind of hard to say. He does throw first-pitch strikes enough, doesn’t have huge red flags on his numbers (though his expected numbers aren’t quite as good as the actual) and isn’t going to walk a ton of guys. It’s the theme of what the Royals are acquiring.
He has made 47 starts the last two years and thrown 261.2 innings with 228 strikeouts and 74 walks. Like Lugo, he averages about 17 outs per start, which in today’s game is pretty solid. If they can get something like 85 percent of his production for the last two years, they’ll be pretty happy. This is a good move for 2024, but again, that player option is all downside and I don’t love that, but I mind it a little less to actually get a good pitcher to add to the rotation that now pushes Brady Singer to the four and Jordan Lyles to the five. That’s, dare I say it, competent.
I do believe this is the last addition though for whatever it’s worth, I have heard from a couple of people that the Royals are trying to dump Lyles and are willing to pay down his $8.5 million salary. I’d be curious to see what that looks like if it happens and if they’d go after another young starter in a trade. Why a trade? Well…
Hunter Renfroe signs for two years and $13 million…sort of
Let me just copy and paste what I wrote earlier today as a bonus in today’s Crown Jewels first:
Since this happened early enough in the day, I’ll just go ahead and add it here. It was just reported that the Royals are signing Renfroe to a one-year deal with a player option (there’s that player option again) for $6.5 million per year. I had mentioned Renfroe at the start of the winter, but I’d have honestly preferred Tommy Pham or Gurriel. But Renfroe isn’t without his positive traits.
He has legitimate power. Last season was the first year of his career with an isolated slugging percentage (ISO, slugging percentage minus average) below .200. And while a career-low ISO isn’t a great sign, the .183 he put up was still top half of the league and would have been fourth on the Royals among hitters with 250+ plate appearances.
He also can really throw from the outfield, though he isn’t an especially good outfielder. He has been closer to average in the past, but the Royals are betting that he’s more the 2021/2022 version when he hit .257/.315/.496 with +1 DRS in the outfield than the 2023 version who hit .233/.297/.416 with -9 DRS. Would I have bet $13 million over two years on that? I don’t think so, though if they’re right, they’re not going to be on the hook for the second year. And he’s also very tradeable if he’s playing well.
We’ll see what this means for the now glut of corner outfielders on the roster. They now have MJ Melendez, Edward Olivares, Nelson Velazquez, Renfroe and Tyler Gentry in the minors along with Drew Waters, who played plenty of the corners last year. I’d bet a trade is coming sooner than later.
Just to add a little bit the more I’ve thought about this move, I like it a little less than I did initially, which wasn’t too much. He has been a monster against lefties in his career, hitting .260/.341/.523, but that was down to .244/.300/.386 last season between the Angels and Reds. Though his numbers took a huge dive in a small sample with the Reds, so I’m not sure how much stock to put into that. They happened, yes, but it’s an odd situation for him. Still, I’d much rather have spent a little more money for someone who can handle the Kauffman Stadium outfield a little better.
Where does this leave the roster now? I mentioned above that there has to be a trade in the works somewhere. They just have too many outfielders. I’ve thought Melendez is a trade candidate for some time now and that thought continues, but I also wonder if they dangle Velazquez looking to cash in on his insane last two months with the Royals power-wise. That may not be the worst idea, though I do love the insane power he provides.
So if the Royals are able to move Lyles, even eating some salary, can they get a young arm from the Marlins or Mariners for Melendez? I think it’s possible. I mentioned Bryan Woo the other day and I could see that as part of a bigger deal. I was against Edward Cabrera previously, but if he’s at the back of the rotation instead of the middle, I’d absolutely take that stuff and potential. There are three moves that need to be made on the roster, which means this is absolutely something to watch.
With these moves and previous ones it is apparent that JJ is comfortable with getting older on the roster. Veteran presence? But are we getting more than just less mediocre. Don’t get me wrong, I like the action but is it actually making a difference?
At least the Royals are trying to improve their roster this off-season!!!