Royals Looking to Make a Winter Meetings Splash?

Day one of the Winter Meetings is in the books, and the Royals still haven't made a big move, but they're hinting at one.

When the world of baseball converged on Nashville on Sunday, we knew there would be a lot of words spewed by a lot of different people. Yesterday, JJ Picollo and Matt Quatraro both spoke with different media outlets and had a few things to say that I think are worth breaking down. The fun part about writing something during times like these is that what you write can be completely useless like 10 minutes after it goes out to everybody. Some may hate that. I love it.

Acquiring Starters

Picollo was on MLB Network yesterday and opened his statements by saying, “We’re really trying to address our pitching. I think we’ve got a good core of young players. And we’re looking forward to them growing and maturing. But pitching. The starting rotation needs a little bit of help. We’ve got to rebuild our bullpen.”

He went on to say that he learned a lot of the depth of the team with losing two starters in April and then another one in early May and knows how much more they need now. I don’t think anyone would argue with that given what we saw in 2023. How are they going to do that. Picollo did say that they have at least $30 million to spend in free agency, which is actually a bit less than I figured, but that’s because I was going off a payroll number I had been told a couple of years ago that they never reached. But he did say that they have an opportunity to go over that number for the right player.

I’ll get to the bullpen and maybe the veteran bat they’re interested in, but I was also captivated a bit by this quote he gave during an interview on MLB Network Radio.

“You’re looking at what some of the starters are getting, we can be competitive in that range.”

Okay. Now we’re talking. But wait, which starters? Is he talking about Aaron Nola and his roughly $25 million per year? Or Sonny Gray and his similar AAV? I can’t imagine. It’s probably more in line with the one-year pacts for Lance Lynn ($11 million), Luis Severino ($13 million) and Kyle Gibson ($13 million) and the multi-year deals for Reynaldo Lopez ($10 million AAV), Nick Martinez ($13 million AAV) and Kenta Maeda ($12 million AAV). I think the fair question is why not any of those guys? I mean I get it on a couple of them, but I’d take Maeda for two years and $24 million. Actually he and Severino are the only ones I’d have taken a real shot on and I think there’s a pretty good chance that he wanted to stay in New York.

Put a pin in that number for a second and think that he had mentioned that he wants to add someone to the top of the rotation. Is that the top of the Royals rotation or someone who actually belongs at the top of a rotation? It’s an important distinction. I think if they’re going to be going after someone who fits at the top of any rotation, they’ll be blowing by that $30 million or making a trade that I can’t figure out how it would work. But if they’re looking for someone to slot between Cole Ragans and Brady Singer, well, there are some options yet.

So who is in that range? It’s the guys we’ve discussed from the start and maybe some others. Mike Clevinger, Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Seth Lugo, Tyler Mahle, Frankie Montas, Martin Perez, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Michael Wacha all fit that list. I’d be fine with most of those guys. I’d really love it if they’d stretch a bit for Marcus Stroman. I remember a conversation I had with someone years ago who said that all things equal, Stroman likes to wear blue. It’s a weird comment, but also he’s played for Duke, the Blue Jays, the Mets and the Cubs, so…

There are also trades. I don’t think there’s anyone this team can trade that would get them a guy like Logan Gilbert or Jesus Luzardo or even someone like Patrick Sandoval. But they probably could figure something out for someone like Yusei Kikuchi or Clarke Schmidt (I think both involve MJ Melendez personally). There are players out there who work. The question now becomes if they can actually address this starting rotation because they need a minimum of two starters.

Once they get that, you can start to see depth emerge. If you’ve got a starting five of Ragans, two free agents, Singer and *gulp* Jordan Lyles, now your depth becomes Daniel Lynch, Angel Zerpa, Alec Marsh, Anthony Veneziano and Jonathan Bowlan with Kris Bubic theoretically back midseason. When Lynch is your sixth starter, you’re feeling a lot better about your team than when Lynch is your third starter. Personally, I’d do what I could to find three or even four starters, but we can start with two.

Q Wants Quality, Not Concerned With Closers

The Royals haven’t been shy about what they want to do this winter. They want to get pitching, then get more pitching, then get a little more pitching and then maybe grab a veteran bat and then go back for more pitching. I mentioned the starting rotation, but Quatraro also spoke about what they’re looking for with the bullpen market and I like it.

He wants quality, but doesn’t necessarily care about getting a closer. I’ve said in recent years that I’ve actually changed my tune about paying for elite relievers. And I have. But other than Josh Hader, that guy doesn’t exist in this market and guys like Jordan Hicks are going to get paid a lot of money for some team to not really know what they’re going to get.

The Royals have already added Nick Anderson to their bullpen, but he’s a question mark with injury issues. The pitchers I mentioned a few weeks ago still mostly remain other than Emilio Pagan. Phil Maton, Collin McHugh and Ryne Stanek are still there from the right side. Matt Moore, Will Smith and Brent Suter are still there on the left side.

There are others who would help this team and could add to James McArthur, Anderson and, yes, Carlos Hernandez and Taylor Clarke. I didn’t mention John McMillon because we have no idea what his status is right now, but if he’s healthy, he’s a high-end arm and maybe your closer. Add a righty and a lefty to that group, let some of the starting pitching depth see what they can do out of the bullpen and I think you can see at least a decent bullpen forming. I’m fine with just going out and getting good pitchers.

Edit: I published too early! Anne Rogers mentioned in her latest newsletter that McMillon is healthy and will be ready to go. I also completely spaced on Dylan Coleman and Jake Brentz, maybe understandably, but Brentz is said to be healthy and Coleman is working hard at Tread this winter to regain what made him so good in 2022.

JJ Says the Royals Were Better Than 106 Losses

This one got the attention of many and it’s not the first time Picollo has said this. On the surface, no, they were certainly not better because they lost 106 games. You are what your record says you are. Beyond the numbers, though, I don’t think it’s ridiculous for him to say that he believes the talent on the team is better than that, and I think that’s what he was saying here. Look at some of the advanced metrics; the team’s Pythagorean record was 64-98. That’s based on run differential. The team’s winning percentage by base runs was 66-96. Neither is good, both are better than 106 losses.

This is an issue that I’ve found I have with a lot of people (and I’m sorry if this is you). I remember back when the Royals were winning for those glorious three years and the underlying numbers didn’t agree with how good they were. Okay, in 2013, it was right on. But in 2014, their Pythagorean record was 84-78 and in 2015, it was 90-72. They won exactly five more games in each of those two seasons. The argument then was that, sure they won those games, but the underlying metrics indicated that they weren’t that good, so they should proceed accordingly. Why is this different? If the metrics show they aren’t as bad as they were, why shouldn’t they proceed accordingly?

I also think that if you’re Picollo, you can look at the way Melendez finished and the fact that Vinnie Pasquantino was hurt and that they traded away the two-and-a-half somewhat consistent relievers they had and think they were actually better from a true talent perspective. I also totally understand the disdain for the comments, but I wanted to look at it from a different angle than we typically see from people who are rightfully somewhere between frustrated and done with the rhetoric that comes from Royals personnel.

Other Notes from Day One

• The team said that Melendez is an outfielder. I love that. Not because I think he’s a good outfielder but because he is in the middle of an offseason where he actually knows what position he’s playing. After 2021, he was a catcher who had worked at third base. Then he gets called up to the big leagues and is in the outfield more than anything. He heads into the 2023 season as a catcher and an outfielder and by May, he was only an outfielder. Now he’s only an outfielder and he has a chance to focus on one thing. I understand if you believe he should be only a catcher due to value, but I’m happy he’s focusing on one thing at least.

• The Royals do have interest in a bat that can slot in the middle of the order. Anne Rogers on MLB.com mentioned Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham. I’d be more than happy with either of those. She also mentioned there are some rumors around the Royals and Tyler O’Neill. O’Neill is sort of fascinating because he had a monster 2021, but has dealt with injuries and didn’t seem to get along too well with Oliver Marmol in St. Louis. The upside is huge, but he’s also a free agent after 2024. It’s kind of hard to see what the purpose is there when I feel like they’ve got enough corner outfielders who are less than sure things. I guess the defense is better than Melendez or Olivares. And if they do go get a corner outfielder, does that mean Melendez is traded? I’ll let you in on a secret. I’ve got a draft started with the title “Royals Trade MJ Melendez For _______” so you tell me what I think.

• This isn’t so much from the meetings, though my source on this is there this week. He told me the other day that the Royals are still engaging on trade talks with Salvador Perez and the target market remains Chicago with the White Sox. I don’t get it at all from their perspective as they’re tearing down. And other than the chance to be with Pedro Grifol and Mike Tosar again, I don’t get why Perez would want that either. But I guess we’ll see what happens. Maybe the top of the rotation starter they get is Dylan Cease for Salvy (I’m kidding…kind of ).
  

• In the article I linked above from Rogers, Picollo notes that the first day was slow, which he says his normal. My source on the Salvy stuff said it feels different slow than the last few day ones. This was only his feeling, but he said it feels anxious there in that we’re one deal away from these meetings completely popping off and going nuts. So stay tuned for a maybe active second day. At the very least, we’ll find out where the Royals pick in the first round of the 2024 draft tonight.

What will today bring? Who knows? But I can tell you that I’ll write about whatever they do (and maybe even what they don’t do) when there’s something to come back with for you.