Royals Offseason Primer

The bridge from bad to mediocre is complete. How do they go from mediocre to good? That's what this offseason is about.

In 2017, the Royals went for it at the deadline. Sort of. They were in a playoff position on July 31 and when the dust settled, they had added Melky Cabrera to play some outfield, Trevor Cahill to start and Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter to pitch out of the bullpen. I don’t think any of those moves worked as the Royals fell out of the race and ended up with their first sub-.500 season since 2012. After that season, Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain signed big deals in the NL and while Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas came back for 2018, they weren’t long for Kansas City either.

Since then, the Royals have been in a deep rebuild, only Dayton Moore wouldn’t allow anyone to call it that. I’m not sure why. There’s no shame in reaching the top of the mountain and then having to go back to the bottom to get back up. It would be nice if it wasn’t necessary, but the trophy made it palatable. Still, there were the two 100-loss seasons in 2018 and 2019 and then the shortened 2020 that could have been another one (or maybe a season similar to this one, we’ll never know). They came into 2021 with playoff aspirations that were not supported by the roster in place and they left 2021 with their best record since that 2017 season and the pieces on the roster starting to get in place to make another run.

That’s what makes this offseason the most important one they’ve had since 2014/2015. That year, the Royals lost James Shields, Billy Butler and Nori Aoki. You may laugh about the latter two, but both played big roles down the stretch for the 2014 team to work their way into that top Wild Card spot. But even this winter is different than that because this isn’t about taking the final step. It’s about taking the next step. So they have a lot of work to do.

New GM

Sure, JJ Picollo has been in the organization for about as long as Dayton Moore. And sure, Moore said in the opening press conference that he gets the final say. But they also aren’t the same person. They may look kind of alike, but Picollo is taller, so it’s obvious they’re not the same. Duh. In all seriousness, maybe there is a different philosophy and he just has to sell that to his boss. Over the past few years, Picollo has really dove into the analytics and I believe thinks a lot more like I do about baseball than Moore does. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing, but I think if he has the power to at least propose ideas and be the first in line for building the team that it may take on a look a little more like a team that I would build.

We usually can sit ahead of the offseason and predict the general framework of what the Royals will do. While it may end up being the same, we can’t do that right now until we’ve seen how Picollo will operate, so that in itself is a pretty interesting wrinkle.

Pending Free Agents

Wade Davis, Jesse Hahn, Greg Holland and Ervin Santana will all be free agents after the season from the pitching staff. With the extension of Michael A. Taylor, there isn’t a single position player on the 40-man roster, including 60-day IL, who will be a free agent. I think, of those three, Holland and Santana are the only two who warrant a potential return. I know people would scoff at both. It’s not in the plan for two guys on the wrong side of 35 - not even 30, but 35 - to come pitch for a team with such a young staff, but the Royals believe in leadership. And I believe in Holland if he’s used properly.

Potential Non-Tenders

This is where it gets pretty interesting. As I wrote a few weeks ago, the Royals have quite a few 40-man roster decisions to make before the Rule 5 deadline. Their 40-man roster is currently full and there are two players who are not pending free agents who are on the 60-day IL. So that leaves two roster spots available. Now, a lot of the guys needed to be added to the 40-man already have, so it’s not a huge deal, but they’ll have to make some moves.

Some potential non-tenders include Scott Blewett, Jakob Junis, Richard Lovelady, Joel Payamps, Gabe Speier, Kyle Zimmer and Tyler Zuber on the pitching staff and Hanser Alberto, Lucius Fox, Cam Gallagher, Ryan McBroom and Ryan O’Hearn among position players. That means they aren’t without their possibilities, but they’ll probably need to make some moves there.

My guess at this point is that Blewett, Junis, Zimmer and Fox are initially non-tendered. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Zuber, McBroom and/or O’Hearn joined them, but I feel like they will probably make the initial cut. I’m a little concerned that Lovelady won’t make it as they’ll have to carry him on the 40-man all winter with him having no chance of pitching in 2022. He’s controlled through 2026, so it would seem shortsighted of them to non-tender, but they also haven’t exactly shown a ton of faith in him before this season, so that wouldn’t be surprising at all if he ends up a free agent that some team will likely benefit greatly from down the road.

I think Alberto stays with the team, at least for now. Same with Payamps, Speier and Zuber. I also think that McBroom and O’Hearn make the initial cut while the Royals work to fill out their roster. But if they decide to add someone unexpected to the 40-man, any of them are in danger.

40-Man Additions

We all know the big names who still need to be added to the roster - Jonathan Bowlan, Austin Cox, MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto. Getting guys like Dylan Coleman, Jon Heasley, Kyle Isbel, Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch up to the big leagues this year has taken care of a handful of the others already. So if they non-tender the four above and add the four above, that puts them back to the full 40-man before the Rule 5 draft and any free agents, which means they can’t make any moves.

Melendez and Pratto, if not traded before in part of a bigger deal, are obvious additions that there are no questions about. Bowlan and Cox make it a tough call, though. Bowlan had Tommy John in early June (might have been late May, I couldn’t find an exact date), so he likely won’t be available to come back until maybe the All-Star break at the very earliest. I don’t think the Royals will risk losing him to another team given that he can still contribute in 2022 and still has all six years of big league control left (assuming the CBA, which I’ll get to), but you never know. Cox would have been a no-brainer at this time last year, but he had a rough season. I don’t think it’ll cause them to leave him unprotected, but he might be a piece in a trade just to avoid the roster crunch.

Dairon Blanco, Josh Dye, Zach Haake, Rudy Martin, Marcelo Martinez and Seuly Matias are all also part of the group eligible to be selected in the Rule 5, so there are decisions to be made there as well.

The Trade That Hurts

It might be coming. You can see above all the roster issues that they have forthcoming. Sure some of them are self-inflicted, but they have a lot of guys for a few spots and then nobody for some others. On the infield, they have Adalberto Mondesi, Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield and Carlos Santana as their current group, but also Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto on the doorstep. They have Salvador Perez behind the plate, but also MJ Melendez on the doorstep. Melendez may have to play some other positions, but first and third seem like the best bets for him, but third is manned by Mondesi now and likely Witt in 2022. First base is Santana, who should probably get traded if literally anyone will take him, but may not.

Or he can go to the corner outfield where the Royals have Andrew Benintendi, Kyle Isbel, Hunter Dozier and Edward Olivares. You see where the issue comes in? They can probably avoid a trade that hurts if they make a trade that maybe only stings a little. Can they get some value for Benintendi and hope that Isbel, Melendez, Mondesi and Dozier can handle the corner outfield spots? Maybe! Do they move Mondesi at about his lowest possible value to avoid that logjam? Could be!

But even if that works out, they have so much young pitching that the smart thing to do is not to keep all of them and hope enough of them hit. The smart thing is to figure out who you think is least likely to hit internally and move them for a known commodity. A farm system’s job is to make the big league club better. Sometimes that’s with the player coming up and performing and other times it’s with the player being moved for someone who can help. I still think there’s a match with the A’s given how little pitching they have in their system and how much they have at the big league level to help.

There will be rumors about the Royals all offseason, even if they don’t end up doing anything because they have a glut of talent at a few spots. I thought they might package a few of their players for a big-time center fielder, but the Taylor deal probably precludes that. And before you get too upset about it, I think the center fielders on the trade market are going to fetch an incredible haul because of the dearth of center fielders throughout baseball. So whatever they do, they will likely make a trade that makes headlines.

Free Agent Follies

Because of what the Royals have in position players, I just don’t see a lot of movement on that front. I will go down to the end thinking they are going to add a veteran starting pitcher to front their rotation (and probably trade Mike Minor), but if they don’t have to make a trade, they could go the free agent market. They currently have about $32 million in guaranteed contracts to six players (Salvador Perez, Santana, Minor, Dozier, Taylor and Merrifield) and then I’ve estimated about $33 million in arbitration for seven players (Mondesi, Brad Keller, Benintendi, Lopez, Cam Gallagher, Scott Barlow and Junis). I mentioned some non-tenders there, but let’s assume those 13 make $65 million or so combined. Add in an average of $750k for the other 13 spots and they have another $10 million or so committed.

Ultimately, after some non-tenders, I think they’ll end up sitting at around $70-$72 million between the guaranteed deals and the arbitration players. Add in their “cheaper” guys with Melendez, Witt, Pratto, Isbel, etc. and I think they’ll have some money to spend if they’re willing to go as high as I had heard they would be this year. They never got there, but the number $110 million was mentioned to me. That would put them into the middle third, so maybe that’s a touch high, but even if it’s just $95 million, that’s some money to spend.

The CBA

This is not just Royals related, but the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires this winter. On a positive note, we haven’t heard of any bickering. But that might be a negative note too because not hearing anything might mean that there hasn’t been any negotiating to this point. There are ways that a new CBA can be great for a team like the Royals and there are ways it can be horrible. I don’t imagine it’ll change too terribly much the way business is conducted, but changing service time rules could impact this team in a huge way. Also, draft compensation in any form could be great or terrible for them too. There is just a lot that we don’t know.

Postseason Picks

Okay, I guess we’ll do this here since the playoffs start tonight. Here’s what I’ve got:

I think the Yankees have the pitching edge in the Wild Card game and I think the Dodgers have the talent edge over just about everyone. That said, I think the Rays have the best path to the World Series. The Astros are outstanding in all facets, but I can’t get over how sloppy they looked facing the Royals this year. And while the Dodgers are the most talented team, I think they’ll falter as they get deeper after having to fight for the division down to the last day and then having to play the Wild Card game. The Brewers pitching is what carries them, but the Rays are just too well-rounded. This is pretty chalky, so…maybe pick against everything I’ve put up here if you’re in a pool.