Roster Moves Are On the Way

The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 is tomorrow. The deadline to tender contracts is Friday. It's go time.

Major League Baseball’s offseason calendar is one that packs a lot of action early with a lot of wait-and-see after. The first big date on that calendar, as far as roster moves are concerned, is today as teams need to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. Then on Friday, they need to decide which players to tender a contract to for the 2023 season. The Royals have already done some work to pare down their roster over the last few weeks.

We know they put Tyler Zuber, Luke Weaver and Ryan Weiss on waivers. Zuber went to the Diamondbacks and was subsequently already outrighted. Weaver went to the Mariners, who plan to pitch him in real big league games, allegedly. And Weiss cleared and is with the organization, just no longer on the 40-man. What’s kind of funny about that is I would assume maybe 10 percent of you even realized he was on the 40-man because he was hardly ever mentioned. They also put Gabe Speier on waivers and he was also claimed by the Mariners. Sebastian Rivero was DFAed on Thursday, which allowed them the roster space to activate Adalberto Mondesi, Angel Zerpa and Jake Brentz from the 60-day IL and to select the contracts of Richard Lovelady and Samad Taylor.

I wasn’t surprised when Lovelady was selected. I think that was pretty clearly the plan all along for him as he recovered from Tommy John surgery for the majority of the 2022 season. He did come back and pitch four games and the numbers were outstanding, but again, it was four games. Still, he’s back on the 40-man and likely has an inside track for the Opening Day roster. Taylor was acquired in the Whit Merrifield deal and didn’t play for the organization due to an injury. The numbers weren’t very good in the Arizona Fall League, but he’s a guy the organization likes and didn’t want to risk losing him, so he’s on the 40-man.

But now that roster is completely full and there are a few players who the Royals need to decide if they’re going to protect. Here are a handful of names who they might think about and talk about, but ultimately I doubt they’ll spend a roster spot on:

• CJ Alexander

• Austin Cox

• Yefri Del Rosario

• Clay Dungan

• Josh Dye

• Zach Haake

• Marcelo Martinez

• Noah Murdock

• Andres Nunez

• Logan Porter

There are three on that list who I think could get a little more consideration than the others and they’re Logan Porter, Andres Nunez and Josh Dye. I think Nunez and Dye could get picked in the Rule 5. Nunez struck guys out and didn’t walk them at AAA and that’s always in demand. And Dye is a lefty who is a little funky and has had very good strikeout to walk numbers in the past. That is also something that is very coveted. The way they did business in 2022 may not have a ton of relevance to the way they do business now given the changes, but I feel like if either of those two were in the plans, they’d have gotten an audition with how bad the bullpen was last season. With Porter, I’m just not sure I see a spot, but the numbers also indicate maybe they should find a spot, so I just don’t know for sure there. I don’t think they end up spending as much time on him as maybe they should.

So let’s move on to the names who I think they’ll really talk about:

• Jonah Dipoto

• Diego Hernandez

• Alec Marsh

• Drew Parrish

• John Rave

• TJ Sikkema

• Anthony Veneziano

Dipoto is the son of the Mariners’ general manager and was drafted in the 35th round in 2019. That’s a round that doesn’t even exist anymore. The stuff is hard to ignore, but the control issues are equally difficult. And yet, in the AFL, he struck out 14 and walked just one in 9.1 innings. I know it’s tough to trust that small of a sample when a much bigger sample shows he doesn’t throw strikes, but I think he gets protected.

Hernandez can run and plays very good defense in center field. He started to show a little more power this past season and while he wasn’t a great hitter in AA, I think the Royals will want to keep his speed and defense in the organization and not let him go somewhere else. He absolutely needs more time before he’s a big leaguer, but if you watch him play, you can see the potential to at least be a really useful fourth outfielder. I think he’s protected as well.

Marsh is someone we’ve talked about quite a bit. The numbers were horrendous, but he did finish strong-ish in AAA. He would get snatched up in a heartbeat and the Royals will have a new pitching program to put him through. Look, he may never make it, but I also would be pretty upset if they let him go. I don’t think they do. I think he’s protected.

Parrish is someone who I thought would get the nod, but he just stopped striking hitters out this season. He was never doing it with pure stuff, but even with good numbers in AA, he struck out just 48 batters in 55 innings. He did only allow 31 hits, but he got rocked pretty hard in Omaha and was walking hitters. Maybe he was trying to avoid hard contact but he had 51 strikeouts and 44 walks with 15 homers allowed in 73.2 innings. I think he cost himself a shot at the 40-man, but I also feel like he doesn’t get picked, so all is not lost here.

Rave was someone I wrote about a few months ago as a guy the Royals liked a lot. I figured he would get protected and then they traded for Drew Waters and that changed a bit. He plays a good center field and hits enough, but I wonder if he was sent to the AFL purely for more evaluation and he wasn’t great there, hitting just .217/.280/.377 with 22 strikeouts in 75 plate appearances. With Waters on board and Hernandez seeming like he’s going to be protected, I think Rave is the odd man out. I think there’s a chance he gets selected in the Rule 5, but that’s a risk the Royals will have to take.

Sikkema was picked up in the Andrew Benintendi deal and while he struggled in his AA debut, I don’t think there’s any chance the Royals don’t protect him. He may ultimately be a reliever, but I think he’d get picked pretty easily, so the Royals will keep him around and hope he can continue to progress as he was with the Yankees before the deal.

Veneziano is the one I keep going back and forth on, but lefties who can hit 99 get selected in the Rule 5 and the Royals think they have something with him, so they’re not going to let him go to another team. I personally don’t think he’s a long-term starter, but I think he could be a heck of a relief weapon, maybe as soon as 2023.

So that’s five players to protect and they have a full 40-man roster. I always think it’s hilarious when the organization hems and haws about 40-man decisions when they routinely have at least five or six guys who don’t belong. In this case, I think the best candidates to go are:

• Jake Brentz - This is a situation similar to Lovelady last season. Brentz isn’t going to contribute in 2023 in all likelihood after having Tommy John in July. He might come back later in the year, but I would guess he’s off the 40-man with the idea to bring him back in 2024.

• Brad Keller - This ties to the non-tender deadline on Friday. If they’re not going to give him a contract, might as well cut him loose three days early. Or they could shop him, but I don’t think anyone is going to be too keen on paying him $8 million or whatever number he ends up at.

• Wyatt Mills - I don’t have a problem with Mills, but he’s pretty non-descript.

• Adalberto Mondesi - This is the same idea as Keller. If you’re going to non-tender him anyway, just make life easier to add five new pieces and do it now.

• Ryan O’Hearn - This is the third straight year that I’m convinced he’ll be non-tendered. He’s finally in arbitration, so that’s usually the time when teams start to cut bait and even though he’ll still be super cheap, I’m not sure there’s room for a lefty first baseman on this roster. That said, there is at least a little curiosity in the organization about what the lack of shift could do for him. I wouldn’t let that curiosity stand in the way, though.

• Brent Rooker - It was worth a shot to see if he could provide the righty power and he went nuts in Omaha, but this is a AAAA bat and the type of guy who ends up playing for 13 organizations and gets big league time with most of them. It’s time to find number four for him.

• Collin Snider - It was a good story for a few weeks to start the year, but he didn’t show much to make me believe he’s good enough.

• Michael A. Taylor - I think he gets traded this winter. If there’s a taker, why not now?

There are eight players for you who could go to make room for the other five. If the Royals are going to protect those five, add two starting pitchers, a reliever and a backup catcher, they’ll need nine spots overall, so there are certainly more moves to come. I did mention Edward Olivares as a trade candidate on Friday. Maybe Amir Garrett ends up non-tendered on Friday. Or maybe they make a surprise trade somewhere. The trade market is interesting to me too. This will muddy things a bit, but the Rays, as usual, are looking to sell because they have too many players for too few spots.

Could any be of interest to the Royals? They want a right-handed hitting corner outfielder. Are the Rays moving Randy Arozarena? He’s got that speed the team covets. I’m not sure what the price would be here, but I can’t imagine it’d be cheap and it’d have to be players who don’t need to be protected on the 40-man roster, so you’re talking about some of the young pitching from the Columbia roster potentially and maybe others who the Royals likely don’t want to move. I think more likely it’d be someone from their bullpen if the Royals made a move, though I’d be super curious about Jeffrey Springs as a starter.

Springs is older, but got his first opportunity to start in the big leagues consistently last season and he was awesome. He averaged five innings per start and had a 2.66 ERA in 25 starts with excellent control. His fastball isn’t overpowering, but it’s effective with lots of whiffs and keeping hitters off it. He has an excellent changeup and a slider that was awful in 2021 but great in 2022, so if you’re looking for regression, that’s where it probably lies. But he also threw it a lot less in 2022, so maybe there’s something to that. With his age and lack of track record, I wouldn’t think it would take a ton to acquire him, so that’s of interest to me.

In the bullpen, the way the Rays operate is that I wouldn’t be too surprised if anyone is available. Maybe Pete Fairbanks would surprise me, but even that, not so much. And given Matt Quatraro and new bench coach Paul Hoover’s familiarity with the team, there could certainly be a match there, which would require additional roster moves. But regardless, things are moving and moving soon, so buckle up.