Royals Roster Projection 1: Position Players

There have been fewer changes here, but somehow Royals bats are a little murkier than the pitchers in some spots.

After looking at the first roster projection for the pitching staff on Wednesday, today I turn my attention to the position players. It’s an interesting group really. The team wRC+ of 87 was third-worst in all of baseball last season. Their 6.9 percent walk rate was better than only the White Sox. Their Fangraphs offensive value of -89.5 only saw two teams lower. And yet, there’s some optimism surrounding the lineup. When I look at the big picture, it makes me wonder why I feel a little optimistic about them scoring enough runs, but then I break it down and I think the optimism is at least somewhat warranted.

After the break, their wRC+ was 15th in baseball. Their walk rate was still abysmal and actually even worse, but their offensive value was also 15th. Fast forward to the fool’s gold of September and the Royals were 10th in wRC+, 17th in walk rate and 10th in offensive value. That’s a big jump. It’s also September where false dreams are created, but I do think there’s at least some aspect that’s sustainable. Obviously the emergence of a superstar helps while I think we saw some of the other guys settle in. Now the fun part is seeing if they can sustain that while they also get back arguably their best hitter from injury.

Catchers

Salvador Perez - 580 PA, .255/.292/.422, 23 HR, 0 SB, -0.3 fWAR

Freddy Fermin - 235 PA, .281/.321/.461, 9 HR, 0 SB, 1.5 fWAR

We start with the easiest spot on the field given the current roster. There were some rumors that Perez would be moved at the deadline and I still stand by my source saying he would have if they had a few more hours. But they didn’t, so he wasn’t and now he’s a Royal and says he wants to be for life. He isn’t under contract forever, so I don’t know if that’ll hold true, but he does have the ability to veto any trade, so while he’s under contract, that seems likely. He had a rough year offensively, dealing with more injuries.

I wonder a little if there’s a bounceback for him given a particular injury. He was hit in the hand on June 14th. He left that game and he was hitting .274/.310/.506 and looking like he was just going to continue the offensive show he’d been putting on the last few years. I thought he’d be out for awhile, but he came back three days later. From that point to the end of August, he hit .216/.267/.307. He had a nice September, hitting .304/.310/.481, so if he can parlay that into a better 2024, that would be huge for this Royals offense.

It helps that he has the best offensive backup he’s had during his time in Kansas City in Fermin. I’ve written a bit about him before, but what he did last year seems at least mostly sustainable. He makes enough contact and the contact he makes is generally good. He has some pop. He’s a really good defender too. If he can allow Perez more days off, and I mean true days off, they can be one of the more potent catching duos in baseball offensively.

What Could Change?

Not much really. These are your catchers barring injury. The Royals did sign Sandy Leon to a minor league deal and both Tyler Cropley and Logan Porter were removed from the 40-man but stayed with the organization, so they do have some additional options. It’s just that there are no options as good as the two they have in place.

Infielders

Vinnie Pasquantino - 260 PA, .247/.324/.437, 9 HR, 0 SB, 0.0 fWAR

Michael Massey - 461 PA, .229/.274/.381, 15 HR, 6 SB, 0.5 fWAR

Maikel Garcia - 515 PA, .272/.323/.358, 4 HR, 23 SB, 1.9 fWAR

Bobby Witt Jr. - 694 PA, .276/.319/.495, 30 HR, 49 SB, 5.7 fWAR

Adam Frazier - 455 PA, .240/.300/.396, 13 HR, 11 SB, 0.3 fWAR

Garrett Hampson - 252 PA, .276/.349/.380, 3 HR, 5 SB, 0.7 fWAR

I think this is the group and I’ll get into how that could be different in a second, but there’s actually kind of a nice mix of young guys taking the lead with veterans there for support. The only sure thing on this infield is Witt after both his 2023 season and the massive contract he signed last week. Everyone else has varying levels of questions.

Pasquantino’s health is the biggest one to me. Videos have shown his swing looks back and everything looks good. He’s said he feels good. The Royals have said he’s healthy. All of that is great, but until he gets on a field against live pitching and has an awkward swing or something, I don’t think anyone can know for sure that he’s fully healthy. His injury and subsequent surgery isn’t new and there have been some success stories in recent years, so I wouldn’t say I’m necessarily worried about it as much as I just want to see it and I’m sure the organization does too.

Massey has a big year ahead of him. From all I’ve heard from people in the know, he’s working hard to figure out how he can replicate his minor league numbers in the big leagues. He was just destroyed by a terrible first month of the season. Erase his April and .243/.296/.526 is pretty interesting. Obviously not what you want, but a .183 ISO from a second baseman with good defense is something you can build on. What got me is the strikeout rate dropped down to 17.9 percent, which is solid. Yes, you’d like more than a 6.1 percent walk rate, but I think there’s a breakout in there. He just needs to actually do it.

And I wrote a lot about Garcia. I’d still be looking to move him to help improve other areas of the roster, but it’s not that he’s without his positive attributes. If he can simply improve his swing path to get more lift on the ball, I don’t think he’ll be a monster or anything but he’ll plug some gaps and be a really solid hitter. As it stands now, he had a wRC+ of 84. That’s not good enough. But he’s an outstanding defender and understands the zone. If he can make more efficient contact, he can make a difference at the top of a lineup.

I didn’t like the Frazier signing because I’m not a fan of Frazier, but he has had big league success and is solid depth. I didn’t have a huge problem with the Hampson signing, though with Frazier coming on board, it seems a bit superfluous. Either way, these are two veterans on low-salary deals who can step in if and when they’re needed, which is nice to have. Hampson can also handle center field while Frazier is probably more second base and a little left field. My guess is Frazier plays more than Hampson and is much more likely to step in as a starter if anyone falters.

What Could Change?

Massey comes into camp as the starting second baseman, but the Royals signed a player in Frazier who, as I just mentioned, has been a starter for awhile. His presence means a bad spring for Massey could lead to Massey starting the year in AAA with Nick Loftin getting big league time as the short side of a platoon. They have acquired some really interesting pieces who can fill in on the infield as well. Devin Mann came over in the Ryan Yarbrough deal. They got Cam Devanney in the Taylor Clarke deal. They signed Mike Brosseau to a minor league deal. If an unexpected trade happens, they have plenty of depth here that I feel like is probably pretty quality and much better than we’ve seen in the past.

Outfielders

MJ Melendez - 602 PA, .235/.316/.398, 16 HR, 6 SB, 0.0 fWAR

Kyle Isbel - 313 PA, .240/.282/.380, 5 HR, 7 SB, 1.1 fWAR

Hunter Renfroe - 548 PA, .233/.297/.416, 20 HR, 0 SB, 0.6 fWAR

Nelson Velazquez - 179 PA, .235/.302/.586, 17 HR, 0 SB, 0.7 fWAR

Dairon Blanco - 138 PA, .258/.324/.452, 3 HR, 24 SB, 1.1 fWAR

I think your starters are generally Melendez, Isbel and Renfroe with Velazquez sitting as the DH on most days. But I also think there’s some fluidity here with guys like Perez and Pasquantino spending time at DH and even some time for Renfroe and Melendez potentially. So this is probably the spot on the field where you’ll see about the most movement on a day to day basis. So this will change pretty regularly.

In Melendez, I thought the Royals would trade him and they still could, but at this point, he’s on the roster, so he’s in the projection. My friend Alex Duvall has had the bold prediction that he’d lose his job in spring and Tyler Gentry would be the beneficiary, but I just don’t think Melendez is the type to struggle in the Cactus League. Think about the legend of spring Mike Moustakas. I think Melendez hits well in spring and there’s a lot of optimism around him after his strong finish in 2023. Will he make good on that? I don’t have a crystal ball, I don’t know.

Renfroe is your right fielder, for better or for worse, and the Royals are banking on him getting back to the guy he was in 2021 and 2022 when he had two basically identical seasons and hit .257/.315/.497 with 60 home runs (31 in 2021 and 29 in 2022). If he does, his signing ends up great and cheap and he helps to lengthen a lineup that needed lengthening. If he’s the 2023 version, well, Gentry is going to get his shot through Renfroe probably. The problem here is that Renfroe isn’t much on defense other than his silly strong arm. It would be great if the Royals had two good defenders out there instead of one.

This is where Velazquez gets a little redundant. He’s not a good defender either and while he impressed us with the power, there isn’t much of a track record. I think he’s going to be counted on to be the regular DH, as I mentioned, while getting a little time in the outfield, particularly against tough lefties. If he can replicate what he did in two months, he’s obviously a monster. We’ll see. If he can’t, he has an option remaining and that can be an opening for Gentry.

At least the center fielder is legitimately elite defensively. Isbel is excellent and his bat came around in the second half to the point that you think maybe, just maybe, he can be good enough. He looked like he was starting to swing better before he hurt his hamstring in May, but did hit .254/.296/.393 after he came back. No, that’s not impressive, but with his defense and hitting ninth, it plays. If he can hit .260/.300/.400, that works. He basically did exactly that after the break. I’m fine with Isbel out there.

And the fourth (or fifth, depending on how you see it) outfielder is Dairon Blanco. For now. I went back and forth between him and Drew Waters, and I think the Royals are more likely to want Waters to play every day and have Blanco on the bench than the other way around. I’ve written that there is some flukiness to the numbers he put up, but Blanco was also solid offensively while providing excellent outfield defense. He can serve as a right-handed complement to Isbel and can handle a corner as well. Waters can do all of the same things and can also play center, so we’ll see how it plays out, but I have Blanco with the slightest of edges right now.

What Could Change?

Waters over Blanco is the obvious one. And Gentry is a prospect knocking on the door and a reason why I didn’t love the Renfroe signing, but I also understand the idea of wanting to make Gentry earn it. So he could have a huge spring and cause some chaos on this roster. Otherwise there really isn’t a non-roster invitee who has a real shot to crack the roster. I would say the only other big change could come in the way of a trade. I could absolutely see either Melendez or Velazquez moved in a deal for a closer and that would throw a wrench in Wednesday’s newsletter too. But for now, this is the group.

And that’s what I’ve got for my first roster projection. I’ll be out in Surprise in early March and won’t get to as many games as usual since I’ll be toting around a kid this time, but I’ll probably put out another projection just before I go and then again after I get back. And don’t forget that paid subscribers are eligible to win the two NLBM memberships I’m giving away after I return, so make sure you’re upgraded today!