Royals Roster Projection 2, Part 1: The Bats

Spring games have started, so let's see what the team looks like now after like nine seconds of action.

Things haven’t changed a whole lot from the first set of roster predictions I did a few weeks back, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t update during the first week of spring games. We’ve now had a couple weeks of camp for storylines to be written, to hear what Mike Matheny thinks of this player or that player, and that can help to form some judgments.

It helps a bit that Dayton Moore mentioned last week that the 14 guys in the lineup and rotation are basically set, which gives us a pretty good idea of who is going to be playing where, at the very least, but there are some intriguing bullpen spots and even a bench spot or two that I think could be interesting as spring really gets moving.

Last time, I gave you PECOTA projections with these players. This time, it’ll be ZiPS. I like to change things up.

Catchers

Salvador Perez
.265/.294/.488, 24 HR, 12 BB

Cam Gallagher
.254/.312/.377, 6 HR, 21 BB

The catcher spot is in good hands for the Royals with these two. There is a pesky little issue of Meibrys Viloria being out of options and the Royals liking him, but with catching so thin around the game, I think they might have a tougher time sneaking him through waivers to send him back to Omaha than some might believe, so he’ll be given a shot, but Gallagher is just the better catcher both offensively and defensively. And of course, there’s Salvy, who had his best offensive season last year. Can he continue it? That’s questionable, but there are at least some good trends.

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First Base

Carlos Santana
.250/.367/.418, 17 HR, 80 BB, 81 K

I had Ryan O’Hearn here initially and while he homered in the first spring game on Sunday, I was just thinking about this more and I don’t think he starts the year on the roster. I think if they hadn’t gotten Andrew Benintendi, maybe, but they’re pretty well set now from the left side. He can bludgeon his way onto this team, but I’m moving his spot to another reliever that you’ll see tomorrow. And Santana is the obvious first baseman with the multi-year deal.

Second Base

Nicky Lopez
.245/.307/.333, 29 XBH, 7.4% BB, 14.4% K

Hanser Alberto
.285/.307/.399, 40 XBH, 2.4% BB, 10.5% K

These projections are assuming equal playing time, but if they’re right, there’s literally no reason for Lopez to play, at least from an offensive perspective. His defense is obviously better, but is it enough better to account for that difference? It’s not, but that doesn’t matter to start. Lopez is going to get a shot to prove he can be the hitter he was in the minor leagues to go along with the great defense. The Royals got their insurance plan in Alberto who I figure will be added to the 40-man toward the end of camp. If Lopez can’t hack it, the signing will be quite fortuitous. If he can, it could be a fantastic platoon. The Royals are in a good position here.

Third Base

Hunter Dozier
.244/.325/.446, 21 HR, 10.5% BB

Dozier is the only Royals player under contract after the 2022 season. He may not be playing third base at the end of his extension he just signed, but he will be for the 2021 season. His backup, as before, is likely Alberto, but if he’s out for an extended period of time, I think the Royals would like to see what Kelvin Gutierrez can do. Gutierrez will likely get some time at some point because he only has one option remaining so they’ll have to figure out what to do with him after 2021.

Shortstop

Adalberto Mondesi
.254/.289/.431, 24 2B, 9 3B, 15 HR, 4.5% BB, 29.2% K

Which Mondesi was real in 2020? Was it the one who was the worst hitter in baseball for the first two-thirds or so of the season? Or was it the one who was the best for the last third or so? Nobody knows and neither do the Royals. But for at least another year, he doesn’t have any competition and will get the chance to show if he’s a star or if he’s just a guy. He’ll be backed up by Lopez and potentially Lucius Fox if he has to miss awhile, but there won’t be a dedicated shortstop backup on the roster.

Outfield

Andrew Benintendi
.253/.347/.415, 11.9 PA/XBH, 11.8% BB

Michael A. Taylor
.231/.282/.404, 10.8 PA/XBH, 6.5% BB

Whit Merrifield
.286/.331/.435, 12.1 PA/XBH, 5.7% BB

Nick Heath
.197/.271/.283, 21.6 PA/XBH, 8.7% BB

I did make a change here, putting Edward Olivares on the Omaha roster and elevating Nick Heath. Part of it was that without O’Hearn on the roster, I wanted a left-handed bat, and even if Heath isn’t a slugger, he might be able to help Taylor against some tough righties. Also, he’s a better center fielder than Olivares, but also everyone on the roster. And I ultimately thought the Royals might want Olivares getting every day time to see if they can develop him into something more than a fourth outfielder. From a projection perspective, I’m really surprised by how much ZiPS believes in Taylor’s power, so that’s at least something interesting about him.

Designated Hitter

Jorge Soler
.246/.342/.495, 30 HR, 11.6% BB

This one is easy. As long as he’s healthy and on the roster, he’s the DH.

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I just have some commentary on the projection portion of this roster prediction because not a ton has changed. I think the projections do show an increased emphasis on working counts and working walks. You can see it in Santana, Benintendi, Soler and Dozier. Obviously two of those guys were already in place, but that’s nice to see.

There is also a bit more of an emphasis on not striking out that you see in Santana, Alberto and then guys who were already there like Merrifield, Lopez and even Perez to some extent.

I’ve said many times that my concern isn’t really with this group of hitters. If they stay healthy, they’ll score enough runs to compete in games, but if they don’t, the depth behind them is awfully rough, so at this point, Royals fans need to be hoping for some seriously good health in 2021.

I’ll be back tomorrow with an updated pitching prediction.