Royals Roster Projection 2, Part 2: The Arms
Their whole bodies will be on the roster, but we're just focusing on the arms.
As I wrote yesterday when I projected the bats, things haven’t changed a ton since the first roster projection, but assuming the 13-pitcher limit doesn’t exist on rosters this season, I think they do add an extra arm to the 26-man roster, which opens up some possibilities in the bullpen.
As I said yesterday, Dayton Moore has indicated that the rotation is pretty much set, and we know of at least a handful of bullpen arms who will be on the club when camp breaks, assuming health. So that does help in making projections here. I do think there are some interesting bullpen battles coming over the next few weeks that are only enhanced with an additional spot available for them.
As with yesterday, I’m using ZiPS projections instead of PECOTA this time just to give you a different look at the team.
Starters
Brad Keller
4.45 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.35 WHIP
Mike Minor
4.24 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.22 WHIP
Brady Singer
4.68 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.36 WHIP
Danny Duffy
4.89 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.37 WHIP
Kris Bubic
4.52 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.39 WHIP
Outside Looking In
Ervin Santana
5.27 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.38 WHIP
Carlos Hernandez
5.34 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 1.63 WHIP
Daniel Lynch
5.30 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.49 WHIP
Jackson Kowar
5.03 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.45 WHIP
Asa Lacy
No projection
Ronald Bolaños
5.33 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 1.61 WHIP
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There aren’t any real changes to the list of the current rotation, and it kind of sounds like there won’t be throughout the entirety of spring, assuming health. But I did add a couple arms to the outside looking in list in Hernandez and Bolaños who were previously on the relievers list.
So far, we’ve seen a few of the guys on the outside looking in list, and there’s been varying success. Santana gave up a booming home run, but that was the only hit in his two innings of work. Kowar looked pretty good on Monday and Lynch looked outstanding yesterday in his first inning before really laboring in his second.
It’s no secret how many starters the Royals are going to need to use this season with the increased schedule. I’ve talked about that so much that you probably don’t want to hear it anymore, but of the initial starting five listed above, I’d assume we’re only going to see a max of 120 or so starts. That leaves 42 more, and that’s best case scenario. The likelihood is that they’ll need 60 starts beyond those top five, so there’ll be plenty of time to see what they can do.
It’s worth noting that Jakob Junis is listed below, but he might even get some time in the rotation if he stays stretched out. I think he’ll find success in the bullpen, but you never know there.
One thing to keep in mind is that they do seem to be trying to get the band back together, so don’t be surprised if we see James Shields on this list next time or maybe they try to lure Chris Young out of his role as the Rangers GM. Who knows?
Relievers
Greg Holland
4.30 ERA, 10 K/9, 5.1 BB/9, 1.46 WHIP
Jesse Hahn
4.52 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.49 WHIP
Scott Barlow
4.14 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 1.35 WHIP
Josh Staumont
4.80 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 7.0 BB/9, 1.65 WHIP
Kyle Zimmer
4.74 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 6.0 BB/9, 1.60 WHIP
Wade Davis
5.45 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 5.5 BB/9, 1.55 WHIP
Tyler Zuber
4.53 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.42 WHIP
Jakob Junis
4.62 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.32 WHIP
Richard Lovelady
4.25 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.38 WHIP
Outside Looking In
Jake Newberry
4.62 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 1.49 WHIP
Brad Brach
4.13 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 1.42 WHIP
Carlos Sanabria
5.85 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 7.2 BB/9, 1.76 WHIP
Scott Blewett
5.99 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.65 WHIP
Gabe Speier
5.09 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 1.54 WHIP
Jake Brentz
4.84 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 5.7 BB/9, 1.60 WHIP (Steamer, no ZiPS projection for Brentz)
By adding an additional reliever from the initial projection, the Royals are able to get their lefty in the bullpen. At the same time, Lovelady is the guy I’m least confident about other than Davis, just because who knows what Davis still has left in the tank? But for now, I think he’s the addition to the roster.
I’m curious to see what Brach looks like in spring because one of his biggest issues was his velocity in 2020, down from 94.1 in 2019 to 90.4 last season. If that can be regained, he could be the guy who we saw after late season trades in 2018 and 2019 when he posted solid numbers with the peripherals to back it up. If he shows enough to make the roster, I’d assume that would mean additional development time in AAA for Zuber.
In addition to the outside looking in you see here, I would say that Hernandez, Bolaños and maybe Lynch and Kowar could be considered for a little time in the bullpen this season. The nice thing about having such a bounty of pitching prospects is that there should always be an arm capable of filling some bullpen innings.
So that’s what I’ve got for these predictions. A lot can change between now and April 1, so I’ll be back with a couple more of these before we get there.