Royals Roster Projection 2: The Arms

The Royals pitching is its strength and there are *plenty* of options to fill out the staff.

It’s very hard to believe that the team we were discussing at this time two years ago is the team we’re discussing today. For the lack of improvement we’ve seen in the offense, both in development and in acquisitions, the change in the pitching staff is kind of difficult to comprehend. I know I’ve said this before, but Jordan Lyles pitched the second game of the season just two years ago. We had to find glimmers of hope in Mike Mayers pitching bulk innings in a near perfect game. Mike Mayers! That’s not to say that someone won’t underperform or that a pitcher we’re having a tough time remembering won’t throw a lot of innings for this team, but things are very different.

The change started at the end of June that year when the Royals acquired Cole Ragans, but to their credit, they didn’t stop. We know about them adding Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, but the bullpen has been largely remade as well over the past 15 months or so. This staff, on paper, is one of the best we’ve seen in Kansas City in awhile. If not the best, it’s at least the most complete. And there’s some depth too with more potentially on the way as the season progresses. If you believe the Royals can win the division, and I absolutely believe they can (not sure yet if I think they will), it’s largely because the pitching staff is so good.

As with the hitters yesterday, I’ll use ZiPS projections for the stats in this roster run.

Starters

Cole Ragans - 156.1 IP, 3.51 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 26.5% K, 8.8% BB, 3.1 zWAR

Seth Lugo - 160.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 20.1% K, 6.5% BB, 2.3 zWAR

Michael Wacha - 143.2 IP, 4.07 IP, 4.19 FIP, 19.7% K, 7.0% BB, 1.7 zWAR

Michael Lorenzen - 127.1 IP, 4.45 ERA, 4.75 FIP, 17.4% K, 9.6% BB, 0.7 zWAR

Kris Bubic - 87.2 IP, 4.00 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 23.3% K, 8.2% BB, 1.2 zWAR

In the mix: Noah Cameron, Daniel Lynch IV

On the way: Luinder Avila, Ben Kudrna, Alec Marsh, Kyle Wright, Steven Zobac

At the start of the spring, the top three spots were written in permanent marker with the fourth spot in ink. The fifth spot was written in that pen that you can erase, but it never fully comes out. I’ll start there. Bubic was the favorite for the fifth starter job when camp started, which means that one of two things needs to happen for him to lose that job. Either someone has to be so good that you can’t deny them or Bubic has to struggle so much that you have to turn elsewhere.