Roster Projection 2: The Pitchers

The position players have a ton of upside and are fun. The pitchers, well, hopefully the new coaches can fix a few of them.

Yesterday I took my second stab at projecting the Royals position players on the Opening Day roster. Today, I look at the pitching staff for a second time, and things have changed there as well since my last projection. They’ve re-added a starter and made some moves that brought in pitchers to help the bullpen out both in the big leagues and in a depth capacity. And because of that, the staff looks considerably better than the first projection. Better is a low bar, of course, but it is better. But it’s also a fair amount more complicated.

As I did with the position players yesterday, I’ll list them all with their ZiPS projection.

Rotation

Zack Greinke - 7-7, 4.19 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 131.0 IP, 14.5% K, 5.3% BB, 1.0 zWAR

Brady Singer - 8-10, 3.96 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 174.0 IP, 22.1% K, 6.7% BB, 2.5 zWAR

Jordan Lyles - 8-13, 4.88 ERA, 4.73 FIP, 163.0 IP, 17.8% K, 7.1% BB, 0.7 zWAR

Daniel Lynch - 4-6, 4.69 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 84.0 IP, 20.4% K, 8.3% BB, 0.5 zWAR

Brad Keller - 6-9, 4.65 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 104.0 IP, 17.5% K, 9.1% BB, 0.3 zWAR

Other Candidates: Kris Bubic, Max Castillo, Jonathan Heasley, Jackson Kowar, Ryan Yarbrough, Angel Zerpa

The first three were easy. Greinke was re-signed a couple weeks ago and can earn up to $16 million. I have him listed first. I don’t think he’s the best starter, but if I had to guess at this moment, I’d say he gets the nod on March 30 against the Twins. The Royals are banking on him continuing to figure out how to get hitters out without the same stuff that most of his opponents have. If there’s any one pitcher I’d bet on to it, it’d be Greinke, but he’s walking a tightrope at times given the lack of velocity. Singer has earned it after last season’s breakout year, and I think he ends up as the team’s best starter again. And Lyles signed the two-year deal to eat innings. So he’s going to start and likely during that first series.

Where it gets interesting are the fourth and fifth starters. I obviously think Lynch and Keller snag those last two spots. I’ll get into this next week, but I’m going to give you a name to think about if it’s not one of those two and it’s Kowar. You’ve probably given up on him and I don’t blame you. I’m also not sure that I haven’t given up on him. But people I’ve spoken with who are in the game haven’t given up on him. The belief is that the stuff is so good and the presence of a truly plus pitch, his changeup, can allow him to shine with the new coaching staff. I’m not there yet obviously, but he’s a name to keep an eye on.

With Lynch, though, I think he’s the one guy who has a shot to break camp with the team and is in a roster battle who you could see starting the first game of a playoff series. Because of that, you stick with him. The numbers were underwhelming, but after he came back for good from his blister issues on August 1, he did post a 7.0 percent walk rate. He got hit harder and struck out fewer batters, but just getting into the zone was something I think was important for him. He has the slider to get whiffs. He has a fastball that, if used correctly, can be big for him. His changeup looked good last year and his curve has looked good in the past. That’s four pitches. You’re asking a lot of a new coaching staff, but Lynch is the guy I’m most excited about seeing this spring.

And Keller might be the guy I’m least excited about, but not because I don’t think the new coaching staff can’t help him. It’s just that there isn’t a ton to be gained from him getting better or even just getting back to what he was from 2018 to 2020. He’s in the last year of team control and if they do get him back on track, he’ll likely want to become a free agent. If they don’t, well, he’s gone either way. But there is some value in a guy who has started and thrown a good number of innings before and could be nice trade bait come July. That’s why I think he starts in the rotation. Does he stay there? Meh, I don’t know.

If I had to guess I’d say that Bubic, Castillo, Heasley, Kowar and Zerpa pitch in AAA, but when you add in Alec Marsh, Jonathan Bowlan and Austin Cox, you may be looking at trades during spring to lessen the logjam a bit. That could be pitchers in the bullpen being moved to make room for young starters to pitch in relief or just the younger starters getting moved. That’ll be something interesting to watch.

Bullpen

Scott Barlow - 72 G, 3.59 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 72.0 IP, 27.5% K, 8.5% BB, 0.6 zWAR

Aroldis Chapman - 63 G, 4.07 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 63.0 IP, 28.6% K, 14.1% BB, 0.1 zWAR

Dylan Coleman - 68 G, 3.81 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 68.0 IP, 26.3%, 10.9% BB, 0.3 zWAR

Tyler Clarke - 66 G, 4.52 ERA, 4.31 FIP, 66.0 IP, 20.1% K, 7.2% BB, -0.1 zWAR

Josh Taylor - 52 G, 3.69 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 52.0 IP, 23.5% K, 9.0% BB, 0.1 zWAR

Josh Staumont - 58 G, 4.31 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 58.0 IP, 25.0% K, 13.2% BB, 0.0 zWAR

Amir Garrett - 60 G, 4.09 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 60.0 IP, 25.5% K, 12.5% BB, 0.2 zWAR

Ryan Yarbrough - 31 G, 4.76 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 143.0 IP, 16.6% K, 5.3% BB, 1.2 zWAR

Other Candidates: Bubic, Castillo, Jose Cuas, Heasley, Carlos Hernandez, Kowar, Richard Lovelady, Mike Mayers, Andres Nunez, Evan Sisk, Collin Snider, Nick Wittgren, Zerpa

Man, I don’t feel great about predicting this unit. Barlow and Chapman are locks. Yarbrough is a lock for the roster, but he could be a starter. If he’s a starter, Keller is probably a reliever, so I guess I feel good about that. But there are five other spots that could go in a number of different directions. I also actually believe Coleman is a lock, but then Anne Rogers on mlb.com put out her latest look at the roster and it was missing Coleman. Does Rogers know something I don’t? It’s certainly possible, if not probable. She also has Hernandez in there as he’s listed as out of options. The organization believes he will be granted an additional option, so I’m assuming that’s the case in my projection.

Going down the list I have above, I don’t see how Coleman isn’t on the roster with his stuff and the results he put up. Yes, his control left something to be desired, but that fastball with that slider and the 7.4 percent walk rate after the break. I don’t know how you can start the season without him on the roster. So because of that, he’s on there. I also think they really liked what they got from Clarke. On a team that didn’t throw strikes, Clarke absolutely did and he was pretty effective too, when he was healthy. He should never be one of the two or three best relievers on a team, but a team can win with him in the middle innings for sure. And among pitchers who were with the team last year, Garrett was outstanding against lefties and Staumont isn’t that far removed from being a key piece.

The question with Garrett is absolutely his control. He walked the world last year and even though the results were excellent at times, he also put the team in tough situations. Not needing him for leverage spots helps, but the depth they’ve built him continues to make him a trade candidate for me, particularly during spring if injuries hit someone.

And the question with Staumont is both control and health. He averaged just 0.4 MPH slower with his fastball in 2022 compared to 2021, which might surprise people. But it was a full 1.9 MPH slower than 2020 which won’t surprise anyone. Even with diminished velocity, though, he gave up a .172 average and .219 SLG on that fastball. It was still effective. His curve was a mess, though, and he needs that pitch. He couldn’t throw strikes and when he did, the curve got lit up. I don’t think Staumont is in danger of being sent down, but I think he is in danger of being hurt. I’m also very curious to see how the pitch clock impacts him. My guess is he struggles with it, but I also think there’s a non-zero chance that a pitcher like him who is so cerebral might benefit from not having as much time to think.

And that leaves Taylor, who the Royals acquired for Adalberto Mondesi. He’s a big lefty. The last time we saw him was 2021, but he was getting whiffs on nearly half the swings against his slider. That’s a nice profile to pair with a 95 MPH fastball that didn’t get squared up too often. He also has options, but I think he starts with the club. But as I’ve written, options are a continuing theme with this pitching staff. They’ll be able to mix and match week to week even with who they have on the big league roster and Taylor may spending some time in Omaha.

Of the other candidates, I do think there’s a shot they end up with one of the starting candidates in the bullpen. Maybe that’s Bubic or Heasley. I think, as I said above, there’s a trade that needs to happen or an injury. I really wanted to have Lovelady on the roster to start the year, but I think he ends up at AAA for a bit. He did come back from Tommy John last season, but threw just four innings. There’ll be big league innings for him, so it’s not a real concern. The same is true of Cuas and maybe even Snider. I think that Wittgren will be kept in Omaha and will also eventually find his way to the big leagues.

That’s the thing with this staff. I think there will be ample opportunity to get quite a few pitchers a handful of appearances and innings at the big league level throughout the year. I’ve asked this question before and don’t know the answer, but we know they have depth but will that depth be quality? That remains to be seen, but I at least think this staff is better and more complete than last year’s and that’s a step in the right direction.