Weekend in Review: A Q&A Session, Recapping the Rough Weekend and What's Next

Your favorite Monday newsletter is back in business with the rough weekend that was for the Royals.

That was certainly not the way the Royals wanted to start the season. This team didn’t have any grand aspirations of contending, but I don’t think they envisioned welcoming Whit Merrifield and Company to town tonight still searching for their first win. On the one hand, a three-game losing streak happens to every team. On the other hand, not many teams start the year without a run until the second inning of their third game. So yeah, I’d say that’s not a great way to get things going. On the bright side, their winning percentage can only go up from here, but Buddy Bell taught me not to say things can’t get worse.

It’s just such a weird time because a three-game sample is essentially meaningless. The Pirates swept the Dodgers last season. The Nationals lost 107 games and won three in a row five different times. The Dodgers won 111 games but lost three or more in a row five times. But also, this Royals team isn’t one that anyone expected to be especially good, so when any sample confirms what you believed going in, it feels more noteworthy. The truth is that it isn’t any more noteworthy than if this sweep happened at any other time, but that doesn’t mean that you’re going to feel good about what went down over the last four days against the Twins. This is actually why I’m going to run down some questions to help keep you at least marginally interested.

A Hypothetical Q&A

So the season is over, right?

Actually no. They have 159 more games scheduled and the odds are they’ll play all of them. There could be a world where there’s a rainout and they only play 151 of th…

Come on, you know what I’m saying, so I’ll ask again…the season is over, yes?

Fine. I get it. The Royals are 0-3 and on pace to go 0-162 with a major league record for futility of 216 runs scored. But the vast majority of people picked the Royals to win somewhere between 66 and 77 games. I think the higher end of that and above were pretty optimistic and the lower end and below were pessimistic (though I’m less inclined to say that now), but if you picked them for a mediocre-at-best win total, then it seems kind of odd to believe the season is over because they lost three in a row to start things.

There are still big stories to follow, such as the offensive development of guys like Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and others. Plus, watching the new pitching coaching staff work with the arms is interesting to see how that experiment without many new arms in the organization works out. The whole point of 2023, for better or for worse, was to find out what they have and don’t have and that’s still going to happen.

How are those three hitters doing anyway?

Well, umm…look, I know what you’re getting at. Pasquantino has one single in 10 at bats. Melendez and Witt are still looking for their first hits. It hasn’t been pretty. I saw someone on Twitter say they should be sent down. That was when I realized it was time to get off Twitter for the day. I’ve thought Pasquantino has been a little over-aggressive and trying to do to much, but otherwise I’d probably argue it’s a small sample blip. Nobody has hit yet other than Salvador Perez, Edward Olivares and Matt Duffy.

Why has nobody hit yet?

I wrote on Friday that I think Thursday was about Pablo Lopez. Saturday was kind of buzzard luck. The Royals had five walks and a 60 percent hard-hit rate. I don’t know the stats on the walks with that hard-hit rate, but last season when the Royals walked five or more times, they went 19-14 and averaged six runs per game. The league as a whole went 704-336. Only 25 of the five-walk games resulted in a shutout. It happened to the Royals twice in their first two games. In some ways you can say “only the Royals” but in other ways, you feel okay about it actually.

They had a hard-hit rate of 54.2 percent in yesterday’s game and did finally put up a few runs, though it wasn’t enough. They only had nine games all season with a hard-hit rate higher than yesterday’s game and 60 percent was their high-water mark. I think it’s worth noting that they’ve had a solid approach and they’re hitting the ball hard. It’s weird for me to sit here talking about a team with four runs on 12 hits in three games and not feel that worried about the offense, but their 12.5 percent walk rate is third-best (yes, it’s early) and their .159 BABIP is comically low. These things do even out.

How’s the defense doing?

Kyle Isbel looks great!

How. Is. The. Defense. Doing?

Ugh. Fine. It’s not great, though I wonder if Duffy finds himself starting again tonight and more in the future. Hunter Dozier hasn’t hit and we know he isn’t a good defender. Duffy made a couple of plays in yesterday’s game that Dozier never makes. Witt made a mental error that turned into a physical error on a ground ball that he tried to throw to third. He hasn’t had many opportunities, but I thought he’s looked fine at short otherwise.

Nicky Lopez cost the team a run on Saturday by whiffing on a great throw from Nate Eaton in left field. We know about the Melendez error on Opening Day. I’d say it’s been a mixed bag, but I don’t think anything has made me believe they can actually be good defensively without some personnel changes.

Are those changes coming or is Matt Quatraro going to sit on his hands?

It’s been three games. I know that it’s been more than that for certain guys, but this coaching staff is in full-on evaluation mode. As they figure out what they believe works best, I think we’ll start to see slight moves made. I wonder if we see Melendez and Perez rotating more at DH to get some defensive help in a corner outfield, whether it’s Eaton or Jackie Bradley Jr. (until Drew Waters returns). I think Franmil Reyes looking pretty bad for two games makes that more likely. But also, it’s three games. Whoever you think the best manager in the world is wouldn’t change their plan after three games. We don’t know if that’s Quatraro or not, but I’m guessing he won’t do it either.

When are they going to fire Q?

Seriousl…

I’m just kidding.

Phew.

But for real, have we seen any coaching staff impact?

I think so! The approach at the plate is obviously different. I think the decisions need to be better, but the Royals have swung at 45.9 percent of pitches this season, which is tied for 16th. Last year, they swung at 49.2 percent of pitches, which was sixth-most. That’s a big change. I also mentioned them hitting the ball hard. Their hard-hit rate is fourth in the big leagues. Their barrel rate is near the bottom, so that’s going to need to change and I think will with some better swing decisions, but they’re making solid contact.

I also see big help on the pitching side. I’ll get to a guy like Brad Keller in the game recaps, but Aroldis Chapman looking like vintage Chapman is interesting. Taylor Clarke, Jose Cuas, Carlos Hernandez and others have looked better than ever. I think we’ve seen the impact of where the catchers are setting up. It’s been clear that things look different with the pitching staff even if we haven’t seen the massive jump that some were hoping to see. And this has all happened before arguably their best pitcher has even thrown a pitch. I’m encouraged.

So I should keep paying attention and reading Inside the Crown?

Absolutely! There are fun, young players on this team and I’ll be here writing all season no matter the results. It’s more fun when you’re checking in here every day.

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The Games

Saturday - Twins 2, Royals 0

This game was almost a carbon copy of what we see on Opening Day, only this time the Twins took an early lead rather than a middle-innings lead. I thought Jordan Lyles looked mediocre, which is sort of what he is and for $8.5 million in today’s money, that’s sort of fine. I assume he’ll go a little longer moving forward and that the Royals were just getting guys feet under them the first few days of the season because if he’s going to be a five-inning pitcher, the bulk of his value is negated.

I’m also not going to pretend like I’m even remotely upset with two runs and just one earned over 5.1 innings against a Twins lineup that I think is going to be pretty good this season. I thought it was interesting he went with his four-seamer more on Saturday and that it was actually quite effective after it was a bad pitch for him last year. It’s probably a small sample blip, but it was also 1.5 MPH slower, which I guess could be helpful? I don’t know. I thought this curve was outstanding and he threw it a fair amount more than last season, so maybe that’s an impact of the coaching staff.

The positive story for the Royals, though, was the work of the bullpen. Even though Ryan Yarbrough let an inherited runner score, the bullpen threw 3.2 shutout innings that were pure dominance. Yarbrough needed 12 pitches to get five outs. Then Clarke and Chapman followed. They faced six total batters and struck out six total batters. Chapman was pure dominance. Here were his velocities on his 13 pitches in order:

98.6
98.6
99.3
99.1
100.8
100.5
99.7
102.5
100.2
99.5
98.4
89.4 (slider)
99.7

I still have my doubts about Chapman as a human being, but I had doubts from a baseball perspective too. Those obviously aren’t gone with just one game, but that was vintage Chapman out there. What do you do with this pitch if you’re Kyle Farmer?

No, it wasn’t a strike really, which is probably an argument for the automated zone. Who can tell if a pitch at 103 MPH that is that close to the plate is actually a strike? It’s also one of a handful of pitches framed by Perez that I’m not sure he’s framed in the past. I think that’s something to keep an eye on given that they’ve changed where he sets up. It’s interesting at least.

Offensively, they didn’t score, but they hit 10 of the 13 hardest ball of the game. If you’re rounding up, they were all hit 100 MPH or harder (Pasquantino had one at 99.9 MPH) and they were 3 for 10 with three singles. The league hit .582 on balls hit 100 MPH or harder. I know that the exit velocity doesn’t matter, but that felt a little unlucky to me. That’s where the long season plays out, though. They’ll have games where they get a bunch of jam shots and one or two big hits and score seven runs. That was certainly not this one.

Sunday - Twins 7, Royals 4

You see that four there? That’s right. They scored. They even hit a couple of home runs! But you’re not here to talk about Duffy. You want to know how Keller looked in his first start with his new repertoire. And the answer to that was different from pitch to pitch. Man, there were times he looked downright nasty. He threw his new curve more than any other pitch, and maybe even more than that because some of his sliders that were classified as that might have been curves.

He also threw his sweeper a few times and it wasn’t effective, but I liked it. The curve, though, got six whiffs on 12 swings and I think that pitch can do some work for him. It’s a high-spin curve that maxed out at over 3,000 rpm, which is on par with the highest-spin curves in baseball from 2022. Spin rate, like exit velocity, isn’t everything, but, interestingly, he was able to accomplish that with a new pitch. Just take a look at how nasty it can be:

I thought he was really good for four innings. He walked the first batter he faced, but followed that with a strikeout of Carlos Correa and a double play grounder. Great! In the second, he gave up an infield hit and a single and should have been out of the inning if strike three had properly been called on Ryan Jeffers, but it wasn’t, and he ended up giving up a soft single on an excellent piece of hitting by Jeffers. Here’s the sequence of pitches in that at bat:

Yes, pitch four was called ball two instead of strike three, but it brought up an interesting point from Steven Cooney on Twitter.

steven t cooney @snakecooney

@DBLesky I get the pitch location. It was great!! However if your gonna throw that Massey cannot be positioned near the bag. That hole is the only place you can hit that pitch

I didn’t agree here, but I’ve talked about this in the past some. My opinion on this is that that slider was designed to get a swing and miss. And it absolutely should have gotten it, but Jeffers just beat Keller and the Royals with a 63.1 MPH squibber. It happens. We don’t have to like it, but it happens.

Keller rolled through the third striking out the side, but ran into a little trouble with two outs in the fourth that led to another RBI single from Jeffers. This one was more straightforward. Then he got two relatively quick outs in the fifth before walking three in a row to force an early end to his day.

It was funny because I remember the first scout I spoke with in spring training talking about how he now believes Keller is a long-term big leaguer again, but isn’t sure if it’s as a starter or reliever. Well, I think you saw a reason for both in yesterday’s outing. I’m interested to see how he builds on it. He only had 12 or more whiffs in an outing three times last year and he did it in his first start this year. That’s worth being at least interested in what he can do next.

The offense, of course, came out of its funk only slightly. Olivares hit a home run in the second to give them their first run of the year:

Kansas City Royals @Royals

Edward knots it up! #WelcomeToTheCity

And then Duffy hit a two-run homer in the seventh:

Kansas City Royals @Royals

Matt Duffy pulls us closer with a two-run blast! #WelcomeToTheCity

And then Olivares drove in another with their first hit with a runner in scoring position all season.

We’re still waiting for the first hit from the top two in the lineup, which isn’t great and we’re stll waiting for the second hit from Pasquantion and Michael Massey, but I have a feeling that isn’t going to last all year. Three games in and I find myself worried about the starting rotation, not terribly concerned about the offense, worried about the defense and loving the bullpen in spite of Dylan Coleman looking terrible. So basically, three games have changed nothing regarding my outlook on this team, no matter how annoying they were.

What’s Ahead

The week starts with a four-game visit from the Toronto Blue Jays, who I happened to pick to win the World Series. In a four-game set, you can’t hide from anyone but one guy in a rotation, so the Royals will get Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman. That’s tough, but the Blue Jays have one of the more underrated rotations in baseball, in my opinion. We did see Manoah get touched up in his season debut, but we all know he’s good. Looking ahead to tonight specifically, it’ll be Berrios trying to rebound from a generally bad 2022 season.

The Royals have done fine against Berrios, but a lot of that damage came when he was truly terrible early in his career with the Twins and then in a couple starts in 2020. He’s made four starts against them the last two seasons and has a 3.70 ERA with 27 strikeouts and five walks in 24.1 innings. He once again relied on four pitches this year with his slurve, sinker and four-seamer doing the bulk of the work and his changeup rounding things out. He didn’t have as much success with his changeup and his four-seamer got hit pretty hard, so that’s something he’ll need to rectify this year. He gave up 20 home runs in 397 plate appearances to lefties last season. He’s always had more trouble with lefties, but last year was especially bad. It’s a meaninglessly small sample, but Franmil Reyes has seen him well too with eight hits in 16 at bats and just two strikeouts, so watch out for him and the lefties.

After they leave Kansas City, they head to the bay to take on the Giants where they’ll likely see Alex Cobb, Ross Stripling and Anthony DeSclafani. I honestly don’t know if the Giants are going to be good or not, but I think they’re better than bad at least. So that’ll be a test. Plus, it’s their first time on the road and it’s the first time back at home for the Giants. That’s always a test. Well, I guess not for the Twins, but you get it.